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2020 Vision: Position Players
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 3, 2019 14:26:52 GMT -5
Verlander the two years before the Astros traded for him was #2 and #5 in Cy Young voting.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 3, 2019 14:33:01 GMT -5
And Greinke might've won the NL Cy Young if he'd stayed. The idea that the Astros performed some sort of magic on Verlander and/or Greinke doesn't stand up to any analysis or casual stat sheet perusing.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 3, 2019 15:12:13 GMT -5
This narrative is getting out of hand. Grienke was exactly the same guy in Arizona. Verlander's resurgence is a bit overblown as well and has as much to do with his once-in-a-generation UCL as anything. Not saying they aren't good at building a pitching staff, but Houston struggled to find starters internally this year. McHugh flamed out as a starter, Valdéz didn't take any steps forward, James got hurt, Corbin Martin was bad and got hurt, Whitley wasn't called up, and more. The Grienke trade was born out of their failure to come up with another guy internally. If the Red Sox blow it up this off-season, trading Price and cash to the Astros to replace Cole might be an option. They already picked up their Cole replacement in Greinke.
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Post by ramireja on Oct 3, 2019 15:24:50 GMT -5
And Greinke might've won the NL Cy Young if he'd stayed. The idea that the Astros performed some sort of magic on Verlander and/or Greinke doesn't stand up to any analysis or casual stat sheet perusing. I have no idea about Greinke, but I do think the Astros warrant some credit for Verlander's success. In each of the last two years, Verlander's K%, BB%, OBA, and WHIP are better than his previous career highs. Some of that could be a product of today's offensive environment, but when you consider we're talking about his age 35 and 36 seasons, thats pretty remarkable.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 3, 2019 16:08:11 GMT -5
And Greinke might've won the NL Cy Young if he'd stayed. The idea that the Astros performed some sort of magic on Verlander and/or Greinke doesn't stand up to any analysis or casual stat sheet perusing. I think the Verlander thing is because he went from being in the midst of a merely very good season in 2017, one of the worst of his career (which is not to say it was bad), to video game numbers immediately after the trade. His best BB/9, K/9, and H/9 marks have come the past two seasons as a 35/36 yo. That his three best seasons are when he won the MVP in 2011 and the last two years is kind of crazy.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 3, 2019 16:42:55 GMT -5
And Greinke might've won the NL Cy Young if he'd stayed. The idea that the Astros performed some sort of magic on Verlander and/or Greinke doesn't stand up to any analysis or casual stat sheet perusing. I agree with you on Greinke but Verlander has changed dramatically since going to Houston. He had 3.2fWAR in 2014, sustained an injury in 15 and only had 20 starts, but was a 3.1 WAR pitcher, bounced back in 2016 to become a 5.4 WAR pitcher, was heading for a 4ish WAR season in Det in 2017 but put up ridiculous numbers after the trade (albeit in only 5 starts). Since then he's been a 6.6 and 6.4 fWAR pitcher for Houston since, so either they found something or he did. Coincidence? Maybe but then look at Morton - the bargain of the year, salarywise (and a pitcher ridiculed by many on this list when the Rays acquired him). He spent his entire career being a 1 fWAR-type pitcher, then goes to Houston and he's suddenly he's a 3.1, a 2.9 starter, and now a 6.1 with the Rays. Again, I would contend they found something. Ditto with Pressly who k/9 ballooned as soon as he got there while his BB/9 simultaneously dropped. No doubt they've had failures, but these successes are significant - how significant I am not sure but a clear fact is the Sox have been dismal at developing pitching for more than 10 years now, with just a few outliers to point to. I would be all for stealing someone who has been better at it. And executives and player development personnel are a bargain comparatively when it comes to overall budget.
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Post by ryan24 on Oct 4, 2019 7:41:23 GMT -5
I would ask what is your job in real life. My job before I retired was chief financial officer for a division of a fortune 200 company and was responsible for $250 mil plus in sales. Net income in the 25% range. I understand your revenue ratio's. So, I know about numbers. What you do not seem to get is that he CAN spend more money on salaries. BUT, it is HIS company not yours. He does not seem to want to spend more money. Why? maybe its the penalties he is against. Maybe its the drain on potential draft choices to build the depth of the organization. Maybe he does not like the risk factor of 10 year contracts. I do not know. does not matter it is still his company. I believe he has money he could spend but chooses not to. I can not be OKay with dropping the sox payroll numbers, because I have no say in the matter. I do not think he is telling lies. Using HIS parameters he only wants to spend x amount of money. What the dodgers and the yankees of the past chose to spend has different people and different variables does not apply. Henry's business plan moving forward is to cut payroll now so he can spend later. Where his logic came from I have no idea. I can guess several ideas like selling the team in the near future or using the value of the team as leverage to buy something else. MAYBE, his ego is bothering him that a team like the A's has half the payroll and is in the payoffs and he is not. If you do not like the way Henry is running HIS team and you think he is lying to us then you may want think about rooting for a different team. Really? I've spent my entire career in Banking. Longest period as a loss mitigation specialist overseeing billions in residential loans for a publicly traded Bank. More recently moved up to risk management overseeing both residential and commercial loan loss mitigation specialists. Not that your or my experience means anything in this debate. Sports is a business you can't compare to other businesses. The workers have leverage in a way almost no other workers do, it's why they get such a high percentage. For 15 straight years Baseball players have got between high 40's and low 50's percentage of Baseball revenue. Last year was the first time in those 15 years when salaries went down and revenue exploded. It went down by 188 million with record revenues. Already tons of articles saying how that will be exhibit A in the next CBA and may cause a strike. So Henry and the other owners can't long-term do or spend whatever they want. They haven't had a need for a salary floor in Baseball and frankly it would be crazy hard. Yet either the owners will spend or the new CBA will make them spend. This is where Sports are different, you can't just cut wages and there is nothing the workers can do. Sports have the strongest unions in the Country. Henry can want to become the A's, but it can't happen. In the sports economy, athletes get close to 50% in all major sports. You litterally can't have that happen if all the top revenue teams treat the luxury tax as a salary cap. It was never designed for that, it was designed to increase tax payments, not almost make them disappear. Even without looking at the huge issue it is for the whole sport. Why is it an issue to judge our owner and team on spending? It's what die-hard fans do we question every move. So are you not going to debate what moves they should make or the moves they do make? The timing of this after the moves they made is horrible and certainly something we should question. For decades everyone picks on the Marlins for not spending, we now have a bunch of high revenue teams acting like the Marlins! Yet we shouldn't be talking about it? You can certainly have your opinion, but it's a fact he's telling lies. They have the ability to spend without resetting, that is a very clear fact. We have the numbers. He can also spend 40 million more than he's planning on spending with no effect on draft picks. Our owner can do a bridge year, he can trade Betts or not resign Martinez. Those are all choices he can make. Yet the narrative that he has to make tough moves like that is BS and that is how he is framing this. Yet he won't tell us the truth because the last time Theo used the word bridge year the fans and media revolted. So we now get this crap. Henry acting like he has no choices, when that's only true because of the deals he signed off on and the budget he set. I remembered now why I can not have a discussion with you. My statements are opinions. Your statements are facts. Okay, not worth going down this road any more. Thank you for your information.
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Post by ryan24 on Oct 4, 2019 7:48:20 GMT -5
Just the $; I’d love to keep Holt in a perfect world, but my guess is he gets 2/$10-12M from somebody, possibly with a chance to start at 2b. The Sox really can’t afford those sorts of deals right now. I think Lin is a great option, I think he’ll hit sufficiently to have value, and his defense is a big plus, utility-wise. I like Hernandez’s pop, and while he’s stretched at SS and doesn’t walk enough, he’s a pretty good hitter, especially given the time off and how he bounced back. I think he’s got more there...and I think he could be a viable starter at 2b if it comes down to it, and he’d be a great platoon partner with Chavis (or sufficient without him if he gets moved). Price is a big question for me. I still hold out hope that he can undergo a Greinke-Verlander style late-career revival, especially refining his mix. But he’s not been healthy enough to warrant real interest by other teams, even at half the salary. I’m not confident he’d get a 3/$45M deal on the open market. But, with a bounce back year, yes, I think they absolutely could and should move him. It’s also why I advocate collecting SP options, especially pillow deals or post-hype guys. They need to be able to move what they have without creating a roster disaster. I do think that if they had sufficient MLB options, Mata looks ready, etc, and Price is pitching well , they could move him at the deadline a la Greinke, and get something back, yes. It becomes more complicated if they’re in contention, hence my emphasis on volume. They need depth for purposes of their health questions, but also for trade options. B est-case is Price comes out on fire but the team’s kinda sputtering, they maximize their return/minimize their $ included, and the team gets hot in the second half. Nothing personal, and I was onboard at the time, but that deal has turned out to be a bad (not awful, tho) one. One guy I’d LOVE to see them lure back with a chance to start? Pomeranz. He’s obviously capable of relieving, and he’s worth a shot trying in the rotation again...could’ve just been lingering injury issues. Obviously depends on the deal, but it’s worth exploring. I doubt the $ work, but I’d have liked seeing Wheeler on the Sox. And while I’m quite sure it won’t happen, I think they ought to inquire about Woodruff. Problem the Sox have is that they’re pinched on $ and minor league talent, and their MLB roster largely underperformed, which means the only desirable MLB guys like Devers are irreplaceable, or horrible sell-lows like Beni. That’s why i advocate signing Billy Hamilton...he had the same WAR last year as JBJ. He got $1M last year. JBJ has enough historical cache that I think they could deal him and get *something* back. That saves the team $9M and nets a minor prospect. Hamilton’s value can’t get any lower...but it CAN go up. Maybe the Sox’s hitting approach runs off and he becomes a 90 wRC+ guy...with baserunning and defense that’s a 2-win player. I think they are going to have to take some real risks like that. But on a 1-2-yr deal for Hamilton (who’d be a great 4th/5th OF anyway), there’s minimal downside at, say, $1-2M a year. That, Dalbec to 1b, Chavis to 2b with Marco (Chavis with some LF too...or headlining a Gray deal, please), those moves saving $5-10M versus Moreland, Pearce, Nunez, JBJ...that’s how they get under the tax. And it preserves future flexibility. 1) If they want Price to have a career resurgence like Verlander and Grienke the go hire Houston's pitching whisperer Strom and two of his player development guys and make Strom a VP. They are finding efficiencies in pitching like no other team right now. 2) No, if he comes out on fire, best case is so does Sale and ERod and they win the division. Period. 3) I think give what Billy Hamilton is, you may be able to bring Durran right up and get virtually the same thing at a discount. I seriously believe Durran could bunt and slap hit his way to .255/.320 and play above average D. I like the Strom type person idea. Buying starting pitching is the reason they are in the hole right now with salary. Coming out like a house on fire is a real LOOOng shot I think. I like the Duran idea. But, I wonder if that would be rushing things,
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 4, 2019 9:41:25 GMT -5
Billy Hamilton has worse offensive projections than Sandy Leon. He's minor league depth in a good organization.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 4, 2019 9:50:50 GMT -5
I'd missed the Billy Hamilton bit. He had a 0.3 bWAR and 0.4 fWAR; Jackie Bradley had a 2.0 bWAR and a 1.4 fWAR, so I'm not sure I'm seeing where they're the same. It's also the third straight sub-1.0 WAR season for Hamilton. Hamilton is also a speed-first (only?) player who will be 29 who had a .275 SLG in a season in which offense was at an all-time high, and has not posted a .300 OBP since 2016. If this were 1977 and there were 10 pitchers on the roster I would make him my 25th player and give him 11 plate appearances all season.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 4, 2019 12:16:16 GMT -5
I'd missed the Billy Hamilton bit. He had a 0.3 bWAR and 0.4 fWAR; Jackie Bradley had a 2.0 bWAR and a 1.4 fWAR, so I'm not sure I'm seeing where they're the same. It's also the third straight sub-1.0 WAR season for Hamilton. Hamilton is also a speed-first (only?) player who will be 29 who had a .275 SLG in a season in which offense was at an all-time high, and has not posted a .300 OBP since 2016. If this were 1977 and there were 10 pitchers on the roster I would make him my 25th player and give him 11 plate appearances all season. Most PAs without a home run, 2019: 3. Jon Jay - 182 2. Lewis Brinson - 248 1. Billy Hamilton - 353 He's not a major leaguer, other than maybe on some postseason rosters. Side note, remember when the Royals were reinventing baseball?
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Post by jdb on Oct 4, 2019 13:33:52 GMT -5
If or when JBJ goes I don’t think it’s a given they have to find a CFer. Seems Betts played there more down the stretch and Benny could always slide over if there’s a cheaper alternative that’s more cost effective in LF.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 4, 2019 14:17:41 GMT -5
If or when JBJ goes I don’t think it’s a given they have to find a CFer. Seems Betts played there more down the stretch and Benny could always slide over if there’s a cheaper alternative that’s more cost effective in LF. Benintendi isn't a good CF or RF option. You need two CFers in Fenway especially with everyone hitting fly balls. Red Sox were pretty poor defensively last season and that's not going to help improve.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 10, 2019 1:15:36 GMT -5
I'd missed the Billy Hamilton bit. He had a 0.3 bWAR and 0.4 fWAR; Jackie Bradley had a 2.0 bWAR and a 1.4 fWAR, so I'm not sure I'm seeing where they're the same. It's also the third straight sub-1.0 WAR season for Hamilton. Hamilton is also a speed-first (only?) player who will be 29 who had a .275 SLG in a season in which offense was at an all-time high, and has not posted a .300 OBP since 2016. If this were 1977 and there were 10 pitchers on the roster I would make him my 25th player and give him 11 plate appearances all season. They’re not the same. I said by putting Hamilton out there they’d be saving $8-10M but giving up 1-2 WAR. It’s a stop-gap 1-year move until Duran is ready, if they want to keep Mookie but refuse to maintain a $220M payroll. JBJ probably nets just a 45 FV prospect and maybe a lottery ticket (he figures to be worth roughly $16-20M in production for a $10M contract). If they really intend to get under the lux tax mark, at $208M, they’re going to have to make some risky sacrifices like this. They’d have to hope the team hitting environment/coaching rubs off enough on Hamilton that he can slap his way to .260/.300/.320 or so and provide outstanding defense and baserunning value. Or, go out and find another fringy-hitting defensive-minded CF for minimal cost. Their offense can afford a slight hit, but the OF defense really can’t. They also need to save $ while reworking the rotation. Maybe JBJ+Chavis+/- prospect to CO for Gray, and putting Chatham at 2b and Dalbec at 1b gets them close. OTOH, if JDM leaves, they’re going to have to do some work on offense as well. Still, it should improve the infield defense. And even if they have to let Holt go, Marco/Chatham is probably a serviceable to solid platoon. Maybe Gennett can be had for a cheap show-me deal, but there aren’t many options for reducing payroll right now, beyond lucking into trading Price and not having to pay more than half his salary (in which case they still need to find yet another starter).
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Post by telson13 on Oct 10, 2019 1:23:47 GMT -5
FWIW, Hamilton’s been a 1-3 fWAR player in full seasons prior to last season. He was worth 2.9 as recently as 2016; he basically played just 60% of a full season last year, meaning he would be roughly 0.7 fWAR for a full season. It’s entirely possible he’s toast, but again...he only got a $1M deal last year, and sacrificing 1.5 WAR vs JBJ to save $8M and get back a solid-not-great prospect for a guy they’re not going to extend at a time they need to cut payroll...it’s a calculated risk. This team is not in very good shape as constituted. They’re going to have to get bold, and creative, or continue spending way past the tax threshold.
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Post by ryan24 on Oct 10, 2019 7:23:06 GMT -5
I wonder how the situation changes for the markets for both Cole and Mookie, with both the braves and the dodgers losing? Does that make both of them desperate enough to either spend lots of money on Cole or push lots of chips with a trade for Mookie?
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Post by ryan24 on Oct 10, 2019 7:31:47 GMT -5
This thread has talked about trading Mookie, JDM moving on, not signing holt, and trading JBJ. The first decision seems to be JDM 5 days after the series. if he stays do they quickly move on Mookie? If he leaves does that mean that Mookie stays in 2020? If either Mookie or JDM leave that would decide the fate of Holt and JBJ I think? Kind of looks like a Chinese menu. One from column A or 2 from column B.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 10, 2019 11:00:54 GMT -5
And Greinke might've won the NL Cy Young if he'd stayed. The idea that the Astros performed some sort of magic on Verlander and/or Greinke doesn't stand up to any analysis or casual stat sheet perusing. I agree with you on Greinke but Verlander has changed dramatically since going to Houston. He had 3.2fWAR in 2014, sustained an injury in 15 and only had 20 starts, but was a 3.1 WAR pitcher, bounced back in 2016 to become a 5.4 WAR pitcher, was heading for a 4ish WAR season in Det in 2017 but put up ridiculous numbers after the trade (albeit in only 5 starts). Since then he's been a 6.6 and 6.4 fWAR pitcher for Houston since, so either they found something or he did. Coincidence? Maybe but then look at Morton - the bargain of the year, salarywise (and a pitcher ridiculed by many on this list when the Rays acquired him). He spent his entire career being a 1 fWAR-type pitcher, then goes to Houston and he's suddenly he's a 3.1, a 2.9 starter, and now a 6.1 with the Rays. Again, I would contend they found something. Ditto with Pressly who k/9 ballooned as soon as he got there while his BB/9 simultaneously dropped. No doubt they've had failures, but these successes are significant - how significant I am not sure but a clear fact is the Sox have been dismal at developing pitching for more than 10 years now, with just a few outliers to point to. I would be all for stealing someone who has been better at it. And executives and player development personnel are a bargain comparatively when it comes to overall budget. True, but it is notable that he made some changes (SL use/effectiveness particularly, I believe) prior to the trade. I think Houston saw that and recognized a resurgence in its very early stages. I have no doubt they’ve helped him, too, but I think a substantial part of their pitcher-whispering is simply outstanding talent evaluation. FWIW, Verlander’s late-career Renaissance is incredibly impressive, particularly given his improved velocity versus 3-4 years ago. Sitting 95 at his age, with all those innings, is something else.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 10, 2019 11:35:55 GMT -5
This thread has talked about trading Mookie, JDM moving on, not signing holt, and trading JBJ. The first decision seems to be JDM 5 days after the series. if he stays do they quickly move on Mookie? If he leaves does that mean that Mookie stays in 2020? If either Mookie or JDM leave that would decide the fate of Holt and JBJ I think? Kind of looks like a Chinese menu. One from column A or 2 from column B. I think it’s a good point: JDM will be the domino that sets off the rest. It’s going to be a rough go with Mookie if he doesn’t opt out, and really, there’s no guarantee Mookie sticks around anyway. I’ve always like JBJ, but I’m really hoping they can move him and some other players to CO for Jon Gray, either directly or indirectly. The roster turnover could be minor, or massive.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 10, 2019 11:50:54 GMT -5
I agree with you on Greinke but Verlander has changed dramatically since going to Houston. He had 3.2fWAR in 2014, sustained an injury in 15 and only had 20 starts, but was a 3.1 WAR pitcher, bounced back in 2016 to become a 5.4 WAR pitcher, was heading for a 4ish WAR season in Det in 2017 but put up ridiculous numbers after the trade (albeit in only 5 starts). Since then he's been a 6.6 and 6.4 fWAR pitcher for Houston since, so either they found something or he did. Coincidence? Maybe but then look at Morton - the bargain of the year, salarywise (and a pitcher ridiculed by many on this list when the Rays acquired him). He spent his entire career being a 1 fWAR-type pitcher, then goes to Houston and he's suddenly he's a 3.1, a 2.9 starter, and now a 6.1 with the Rays. Again, I would contend they found something. Ditto with Pressly who k/9 ballooned as soon as he got there while his BB/9 simultaneously dropped. No doubt they've had failures, but these successes are significant - how significant I am not sure but a clear fact is the Sox have been dismal at developing pitching for more than 10 years now, with just a few outliers to point to. I would be all for stealing someone who has been better at it. And executives and player development personnel are a bargain comparatively when it comes to overall budget. True, but it is notable that he made some changes (SL use/effectiveness particularly, I believe) prior to the trade. I think Houston saw that and recognized a resurgence in its very early stages. I have no doubt they’ve helped him, too, but I think a substantial part of their pitcher-whispering is simply outstanding talent evaluation. FWIW, Verlander’s late-career Renaissance is incredibly impressive, particularly given his improved velocity versus 3-4 years ago. Sitting 95 at his age, with all those innings, is something else. And I am completely down with that if it’s all it is. Boston has failed far too often in this area when it comes to starting pitching in particular.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 10, 2019 12:35:48 GMT -5
They’re not the same. I said by putting Hamilton out there they’d be saving $8-10M but giving up 1-2 WAR. It’s a stop-gap 1-year move until Duran is ready, if they want to keep Mookie but refuse to maintain a $220M payroll. JBJ probably nets just a 45 FV prospect and maybe a lottery ticket (he figures to be worth roughly $16-20M in production for a $10M contract). If they really intend to get under the lux tax mark, at $208M, they’re going to have to make some risky sacrifices like this. They’d have to hope the team hitting environment/coaching rubs off enough on Hamilton that he can slap his way to .260/.300/.320 or so and provide outstanding defense and baserunning value. Or, go out and find another fringy-hitting defensive-minded CF for minimal cost. Their offense can afford a slight hit, but the OF defense really can’t. They also need to save $ while reworking the rotation. Maybe JBJ+Chavis+/- prospect to CO for Gray, and putting Chatham at 2b and Dalbec at 1b gets them close. OTOH, if JDM leaves, they’re going to have to do some work on offense as well. Still, it should improve the infield defense. And even if they have to let Holt go, Marco/Chatham is probably a serviceable to solid platoon. Maybe Gennett can be had for a cheap show-me deal, but there aren’t many options for reducing payroll right now, beyond lucking into trading Price and not having to pay more than half his salary (in which case they still need to find yet another starter). A 45 FV guy is optimistic for a player with one year of control who barely projects to outperform his salary. The problem with all these trade proposals is that good trade proposals are usually based on someone dealing from depth, and the Red Sox have no depth to deal from. Save $10m trading JBJ? Great, now you have to replace him with someone who'll sign for like $5m or less, which means someone who really might not be a major league quality player at all. Trade Chavis? He plays for the minimum, and the next guys on the depth chart are, again, maybe not major leaguers at all. It's just really hard to make this all work without some plan that proposes our new GM come in and immediately fleece like three different teams. No pressure.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 10, 2019 14:22:35 GMT -5
More Astro (soon to be NYY) Sorcery:
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Post by ryan24 on Oct 11, 2019 6:21:03 GMT -5
This thread has talked about trading Mookie, JDM moving on, not signing holt, and trading JBJ. The first decision seems to be JDM 5 days after the series. if he stays do they quickly move on Mookie? If he leaves does that mean that Mookie stays in 2020? If either Mookie or JDM leave that would decide the fate of Holt and JBJ I think? Kind of looks like a Chinese menu. One from column A or 2 from column B. I think it’s a good point: JDM will be the domino that sets off the rest. It’s going to be a rough go with Mookie if he doesn’t opt out, and really, there’s no guarantee Mookie sticks around anyway. I’ve always like JBJ, but I’m really hoping they can move him and some other players to CO for Jon Gray, either directly or indirectly. The roster turnover could be minor, or massive. JDM opt's out. How real do you think that is? Where is he going to get $60+ mil or more? Mookie will not commit so he is traded. WOW! That opens up to your point MASSIVE rebuild ideas. Some how I think, hope Mookie stays.Got have the fans come to the game or watch NESN, Still does not matter IF the pitching does not get better. Sale 5 more yrs at $30mil, Price 3 more yrs at $30mil and NE 2 more yrs at $17 mil. If they pitch like they did this year OUCH! Still wonder if they can do anything with Pedy? Do not see him coming back. I like the idea of trading for Gray.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 11, 2019 8:53:35 GMT -5
I think it’s a good point: JDM will be the domino that sets off the rest. It’s going to be a rough go with Mookie if he doesn’t opt out, and really, there’s no guarantee Mookie sticks around anyway. I’ve always like JBJ, but I’m really hoping they can move him and some other players to CO for Jon Gray, either directly or indirectly. The roster turnover could be minor, or massive. JDM opt's out. How real do you think that is? Where is he going to get $60+ mil or more? Mookie will not commit so he is traded. WOW! That opens up to your point MASSIVE rebuild ideas. Some how I think, hope Mookie stays.Got have the fans come to the game or watch NESN, Still does not matter IF the pitching does not get better. Sale 5 more yrs at $30mil, Price 3 more yrs at $30mil and NE 2 more yrs at $17 mil. If they pitch like they did this year OUCH! Still wonder if they can do anything with Pedy? Do not see him coming back. I like the idea of trading for Gray. JD's opt-out is very real in my opinion. We all know he's a DH and that there'd be a QO attached, both of which would lower market value. However I don't think that would stop Boras from recommending he goes out there nor do I feel that JDM is thinking that he's lucky to get what he's getting. He probably thinks he's worth more than he's been getting paid. In my opinion, he will opt out, and I do think he'll have some suitors. The most likely candidate are the White Sox, who could use a veteran bat to go with their young stars. I'd think Texas would be in the mix. Perhaps Seattle. I don't think there'd be a ton of candidates, but it really only takes one interested team.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 11, 2019 10:47:27 GMT -5
I think it’s a good point: JDM will be the domino that sets off the rest. It’s going to be a rough go with Mookie if he doesn’t opt out, and really, there’s no guarantee Mookie sticks around anyway. I’ve always like JBJ, but I’m really hoping they can move him and some other players to CO for Jon Gray, either directly or indirectly. The roster turnover could be minor, or massive. JDM opt's out. How real do you think that is? Where is he going to get $60+ mil or more? Mookie will not commit so he is traded. WOW! That opens up to your point MASSIVE rebuild ideas. Some how I think, hope Mookie stays.Got have the fans come to the game or watch NESN, Still does not matter IF the pitching does not get better. Sale 5 more yrs at $30mil, Price 3 more yrs at $30mil and NE 2 more yrs at $17 mil. If they pitch like they did this year OUCH! Still wonder if they can do anything with Pedy? Do not see him coming back. I like the idea of trading for Gray. While I think it’s unlikely JDM opts out (he’s basically a DH-only, limiting him to the AL; it’s possible an NL team might hide him in a small COF spot if the other two fielders are very good), it is possible. I agree that, given the direction of the market, it seems like it would be a bad idea for him. If he did, I believe the QO applies and he would most certainly get one. FWIW, he is literally the *perfect* addition for a team like the White Sox, who will probably retain Abreu at 1b, should have Kopech coming back, and have a legit #1 in Giolito (how about THAT rebound?!), a potential superstar breakout in Moncada (already very good), Anderson (less convinced on true talent there, but should be solid), and a stacked farm with an impact guy in LouBob very close. Rodon’s TJ really hurts, but they have a passel of money to play with and are clearly on the upswing. JDM would be a huge addition for the young hitters, and probably makes them a top-5 offense. They’re opening the window, and he fits their timeframe perfectly. There are other possibilities (SEA maybe, TX...not a long list, but a list nonetheless), and even a club like AZ that trusted him in the OF might reasonably be a player given their effective retool and the parity in the NL that makes a WC a fair bet. I think every attempt should be made to retain Mookie. I simply don’t see any *reasonable* scenario where trading him makes sense, because the return is so likely to be grossly underwhelming and it near-automatically obliterates any playoff chances. Maybe it’s different come deadline time, and they can always take a shot at getting him back in FA. And, it *is* possible that an unreasonable offer comes back from, say, the Dodgers after their early exit (Verdugo-May for Mookie-Workman, though I’m loathe to give up Workman) or the Braves (Less likely but lots of options, but honestly nobody in that system I’d be super psyched about in return...have to be a volume deal, like Gohara-Anderson-Pache for Mookie+). I think best-case is the Sox either get the unreasonable offer, or suck it up on the lux tax for one more year and retain both Mookie and JDM and attempt a mild retool, cutting payroll with some smaller moves. That includes trading JBJ (I’d seek a higher-upside A ball player, might be a 45-45+ FV guy) and finding a minimal-cost replacement (RF and Mookie goes to CF, or a defensive-minded CF). Holt probably goes, and they’d have to run with Dalbec and Chatham as the presumptive 1b and 2b options, possibly/probably in platoons (Ockimey and Hernandez/Lin as the other sides), let Holt go, trade León and have Centeno as the backup, etc. If the rotation or rookies flounder, move both Mookie and JDM at the deadline, and try like hell to get Mookie back in the offseason, when JDM’s contract no longer has them up against the wall. At that point, Price and Eovaldi’s deals are moderately more tradable. Duran and Mata are probably on the verge and Houck is probably either in MLB or very close. I still think they ought to consider Barnes back to the rotation and give Dalbec some mound reps, as well as having Casas pitch in relief on the farm. I’d keep Darwinzon in the bullpen next year, but aim to try him back in the rotation for 2021. I’m really of the mind they need to take some risks and be creative. I think the odds are probably 2:1 on them contending next year provided Mookie and JDM are around...they just need SP depth, and one quality guy.
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