SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2020 Vision: Position Players
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 11, 2019 11:17:51 GMT -5
For all the crap said about the Red Sox system, the nice thing is you have a bunch of prospects ready or near ready to help next year in Chavis, Dalbec, Duran,Chatham, and Wilson. They don't want to call it a bridge year, but it sure seems like it will be one unless the new GM is crazy creative and makes some small deals that workout like gold.
Yet finding out what those young guys can do will be huge. Are they good enough to start? Are they back-ups? Are they just up and down players (Wilson)? We don't need them to be stars, just quality players that can help and not hurt the team.
So while at first a guy like Billy Hamilton seemed crazy. There isn't much on the free agent market we can afford. Bradley almost has to go if your keeping Martinez and Betts. The fact you'd have Duran and Wilson for depth makes Hamilton semi OKAY, or some guy like him you trade for.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Oct 11, 2019 11:25:54 GMT -5
They’re not the same. I said by putting Hamilton out there they’d be saving $8-10M but giving up 1-2 WAR. It’s a stop-gap 1-year move until Duran is ready, if they want to keep Mookie but refuse to maintain a $220M payroll. JBJ probably nets just a 45 FV prospect and maybe a lottery ticket (he figures to be worth roughly $16-20M in production for a $10M contract). If they really intend to get under the lux tax mark, at $208M, they’re going to have to make some risky sacrifices like this. They’d have to hope the team hitting environment/coaching rubs off enough on Hamilton that he can slap his way to .260/.300/.320 or so and provide outstanding defense and baserunning value. Or, go out and find another fringy-hitting defensive-minded CF for minimal cost. Their offense can afford a slight hit, but the OF defense really can’t. They also need to save $ while reworking the rotation. Maybe JBJ+Chavis+/- prospect to CO for Gray, and putting Chatham at 2b and Dalbec at 1b gets them close. OTOH, if JDM leaves, they’re going to have to do some work on offense as well. Still, it should improve the infield defense. And even if they have to let Holt go, Marco/Chatham is probably a serviceable to solid platoon. Maybe Gennett can be had for a cheap show-me deal, but there aren’t many options for reducing payroll right now, beyond lucking into trading Price and not having to pay more than half his salary (in which case they still need to find yet another starter). A 45 FV guy is optimistic for a player with one year of control who barely projects to outperform his salary. The problem with all these trade proposals is that good trade proposals are usually based on someone dealing from depth, and the Red Sox have no depth to deal from. Save $10m trading JBJ? Great, now you have to replace him with someone who'll sign for like $5m or less, which means someone who really might not be a major league quality player at all. Trade Chavis? He plays for the minimum, and the next guys on the depth chart are, again, maybe not major leaguers at all. It's just really hard to make this all work without some plan that proposes our new GM come in and immediately fleece like three different teams. No pressure. Re: JBJ, optimistic but not unreasonable, I agree. He projects for around $15-20M in value based on $9M/win and probably makes $10M. That EV is right around the 45 range. Absolutely, teams prefer to hold onto prospects, so he might not return “fair” value, maybe it’s only a low-minors 40+. I know you’re loathe to consider Hamilton, but the C production in 2018 shows that one hole in the offense, especially one this good, is not a killer. There’s your $5M ($1-2M, really) player. Based on full-season production last year, it’s a 1-win sacrifice. Projection-wise, it’s more like 1.5. That hurts, but it’s not brutal. Again, the alternative is getting nothing in return (JBJ won’t get QO’d), or cutting salary another way that hurts the team short-term. I’d prefer they NOT trade Chavis, because I think he can be a serviceable 2b, possibly even solid. I certainly think he’s got room for improvement and is likely to do so given his age/experience. But moving JBJ and Chavis to CO for Gray, for example, gives them a major rotation answer for two years, with upside (SP is their position of maximal upgrade...their options there are all going to be either bad and/or costly, given the depth problem), and still probably saves them a few million...provided you believe in a Chatham/Lin//Hernandez platoon. I do...I don’t think they’d be great, but I think they could put up 1-2 WAR vs 1.5-2.5 for Chavis. I agree, it’s risky to move Chavis, and only makes sense for a player like Gray who’s a projected 2+-win upgrade. I have no idea if Dalbec can man 1b, but if they legitimately plan to go under-cap, they’re going to have to drop guys like Moreland, Holt, Pearce...$5-10M role players...and hope on the league min guys. The only alternative there is moving JDM or Mookie or Price (who’ll require a subsidy, and a replacement at a position already lacking depth), all of which really hurts their playoff chances. IF they want to get under cap AND remain competitive, I think the only way to do that is to eliminate the expensive fringe/utility guys, and move JBJ, sucking it up with a marginal replacement (again, preferably defensive-minded). Then, use some of the $ saved and talent on hand to consolidate/replace the lost WAR in a single player who provides a significant upgrade at a position (SP) with NO depth. Basically, I agree with you...they’re in a catch-22, IF they are wedded to getting under cap AND being competitive. I agree that my scenarios are optimistic, because i think doing both (under cap and contending) is optimistic. It’s simply the nature of the fallout of Dombrowski’s MO.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 11, 2019 11:28:11 GMT -5
So while at first a guy like Billy Hamilton seemed crazy. There isn't much on the free agent market we can afford. Bradley almost has to go if your keeping Martinez and Betts. The fact you'd have Duran and Wilson for depth makes Hamilton semi OKAY, or some guy like him you trade for.Hamilton, Duran, Wilson would probably be the worst CF depth chart in baseball next year.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Oct 11, 2019 11:37:04 GMT -5
Hamilton's three-year line is .237/.297/.319. For comparison's sake, Gorkys Hernandez has a three-year line of .237/.298/.356. Let's not be reductive about WAR/PA, he can't hit and that's not going to play for a team that's trying to win.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Oct 11, 2019 11:41:14 GMT -5
For all the crap said about the Red Sox system, the nice thing is you have a bunch of prospects ready or near ready to help next year in Chavis, Dalbec, Duran,Chatham, and Wilson. They don't want to call it a bridge year, but it sure seems like it will be one unless the new GM is crazy creative and makes some small deals that workout like gold. Yet finding out what those young guys can do will be huge. Are they good enough to start? Are they back-ups? Are they just up and down players (Wilson)? We don't need them to be stars, just quality players that can help and not hurt the team. So while at first a guy like Billy Hamilton seemed crazy. There isn't much on the free agent market we can afford. Bradley almost has to go if your keeping Martinez and Betts. The fact you'd have Duran and Wilson for depth makes Hamilton semi OKAY, or some guy like him you trade for. Yeah, I guess I think...well, either they blow it up and stink, or they get creative and lucky and make several $5-8M-saving moves, and find out what they have. Chavis provides a little cover for Dalbec at 1b. Lin/Hernandez/Chatham/Chavis some cover for 2b. Duran/Wilson some cover for CF/COF. As you say, there’s close to nothing for them in FA beyond fringy guys like Hamilton who, luckily for the Sox, are a relative “inefficiency” in the market: 1-1.5 win players can be signed for $1-2M deals. That makes minor downgrades from true regulars like JBJ or expensive backups/platoons like Pearce/Moreland feasible. Yeah, they lose a win here and there, but it’ll never come close to the loss of 6 wins from Mookie. And that sort of depth is at least easy to find. And if they can find a way to get some SP depth on the cheap (one of Atlanta’s young guys, Jon Gray, maybe a pillow deal bringing back Pomeranz, whatever), they at least have a *shot* at contending. And honestly, if it doesn’t work out, sell big at the deadline and reload the next winter when a lot of those 45-FV guys they have on the verge or early in their MLB careers (Dalbec, Chavis, Darwinzon, Houck, Feltman, Duran, Wilson, etc) have kinda announced who they are. They’re basically at the point of gambling pretty big (yet winning either way-playoffs or a trade deadline bonanza), or packing it in. Why not take a shot? Get crazy...see if Barnes can start. See if Dalbec can pitch. See if you can get a guy like Lorenzen and turn him back into a SP. if the alternative is losing anyway, then they have nothing to lose.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Oct 11, 2019 11:48:43 GMT -5
Hamilton's three-year line is .237/.297/.319. For comparison's sake, Gorkys Hernandez has a three-year line of .237/.298/.356. Let's not be reductive about WAR/PA, he can't hit and that's not going to play for a team that's trying to win. So what’s your alternative? Tell me how to get under cap AND contend in 2020. Not going to play for a team trying to win? Come on...Leon and Vasquez were something like -2 fWAR in 2018 and the team won 108 games. They had a black hole at 2b too, with Nunez. The catchers hit under .200. Your Hernandez comparo ignores Hamilton’s defensive and baserunning value. And the fact that JBJ was worth just 1.4 fWAR this year anyway. What’s your 2020 roadmap?
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 11, 2019 12:07:55 GMT -5
Yeah, I guess I think...well, either they blow it up and stink, or they get creative and lucky and make several $5-8M-saving moves, and find out what they have. Chavis provides a little cover for Dalbec at 1b. Lin/Hernandez/Chatham/Chavis some cover for 2b. Duran/Wilson some cover for CF/COF. As you say, there’s close to nothing for them in FA beyond fringy guys like Hamilton who, luckily for the Sox, are a relative “inefficiency” in the market: 1-1.5 win players can be signed for $1-2M deals. That makes minor downgrades from true regulars like JBJ or expensive backups/platoons like Pearce/Moreland feasible. Yeah, they lose a win here and there, but it’ll never come close to the loss of 6 wins from Mookie. And that sort of depth is at least easy to find. And if they can find a way to get some SP depth on the cheap (one of Atlanta’s young guys, Jon Gray, maybe a pillow deal bringing back Pomeranz, whatever), they at least have a *shot* at contending. And honestly, if it doesn’t work out, sell big at the deadline and reload the next winter when a lot of those 45-FV guys they have on the verge or early in their MLB careers (Dalbec, Chavis, Darwinzon, Houck, Feltman, Duran, Wilson, etc) have kinda announced who they are. They’re basically at the point of gambling pretty big (yet winning either way-playoffs or a trade deadline bonanza), or packing it in. Why not take a shot? Get crazy...see if Barnes can start. See if Dalbec can pitch. See if you can get a guy like Lorenzen and turn him back into a SP. if the alternative is losing anyway, then they have nothing to lose. If that were true, why would there be any trade market for JBJ at all?
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 11, 2019 12:33:47 GMT -5
What do you prefer Martinez and Betts with a very good defensive CF to help your pitching or moving Martinez or Betts so you keep Bradley?
You have an elite hitting SS, so a no hitting very good defensive CF could work if the rest of the lineup is fairly strong. Like I said you don't have many options. You could go for a better hitter, but it will be a huge drop off in D and you likely can't afford the guy. What's more important offense or D? You could move Chavis to the OF and Betts to CF or make Martinez an OF, but your killing your D.
The big thing with Hamilton is how high are you on Duran? Kinda tale of two players so far, who's he's closer to the guy from the low minors or AA? Was that just an adjustment type thing or he can't handle advanced pitching? He could be knocking on the door next year or be the next Hamilton.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Oct 11, 2019 12:40:21 GMT -5
My Hamilton comparison glosses over his baserunning and defense because they're likely to decline as he ages, he's been a worse hitter in recent years than he was in the past, and those deficiencies as a hitter are only going to be more exploited with more playing time. He's arguably the worst non-pitching hitter on a 40-man roster right now. The baserunning is less of a weapon because he's less able than ever to get on base. If you're talking about him as a pinch-runner and 4th outfielder because it's a better use of the last roster spot than a backup first baseman I'd be on board, but not in a role that gives him more than 200 or so plate appearances. You just can't be putting a .280 OBP guy in the starting lineup anymore, especially a lineup that succeeds from turning the lineup over and extending rallies. He's a worse option (at a couple million more) than a flyer on a Triple-A free agent. I'd give a shot to a Mason Williams or someone of that ilk who I got a recommendation on from a scout.
Replacing Bradley on the cheap might be a good idea for getting under the cap. I just think there are better ways to fill that potential hole than Hamilton. Moving Betts to CF and getting a strong-armed RF who might not have the same range but can make up some of the offense could be a possibility. I dunno, they're going to need some creativity to improve the team while cutting payroll amd Hamilton is not my idea of a creative solution to the Bradley problem.
The "we won with absolute holes on our roster, we can do it again" attitude is what led to them winning 84 games this year and, in part, got the GM fired.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 11, 2019 12:41:11 GMT -5
Yeah, I guess I think...well, either they blow it up and stink, or they get creative and lucky and make several $5-8M-saving moves, and find out what they have. Chavis provides a little cover for Dalbec at 1b. Lin/Hernandez/Chatham/Chavis some cover for 2b. Duran/Wilson some cover for CF/COF. As you say, there’s close to nothing for them in FA beyond fringy guys like Hamilton who, luckily for the Sox, are a relative “inefficiency” in the market: 1-1.5 win players can be signed for $1-2M deals. That makes minor downgrades from true regulars like JBJ or expensive backups/platoons like Pearce/Moreland feasible. Yeah, they lose a win here and there, but it’ll never come close to the loss of 6 wins from Mookie. And that sort of depth is at least easy to find. And if they can find a way to get some SP depth on the cheap (one of Atlanta’s young guys, Jon Gray, maybe a pillow deal bringing back Pomeranz, whatever), they at least have a *shot* at contending. And honestly, if it doesn’t work out, sell big at the deadline and reload the next winter when a lot of those 45-FV guys they have on the verge or early in their MLB careers (Dalbec, Chavis, Darwinzon, Houck, Feltman, Duran, Wilson, etc) have kinda announced who they are. They’re basically at the point of gambling pretty big (yet winning either way-playoffs or a trade deadline bonanza), or packing it in. Why not take a shot? Get crazy...see if Barnes can start. See if Dalbec can pitch. See if you can get a guy like Lorenzen and turn him back into a SP. if the alternative is losing anyway, then they have nothing to lose. If that were true, why would there be any trade market for JBJ at all? How do you want your war? Bradley gives you higher upside and more offense. Defensive only players sure seem like the biggest market inefficiency. Look at Jose Iglesias last year, only got a minor league deal that ended up paying him 2.5 million after a 2 bwar season.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 11, 2019 14:25:10 GMT -5
Hamilton's three-year line is .237/.297/.319. For comparison's sake, Gorkys Hernandez has a three-year line of .237/.298/.356. Let's not be reductive about WAR/PA, he can't hit and that's not going to play for a team that's trying to win. So what’s your alternative? Tell me how to get under cap AND contend in 2020. Not going to play for a team trying to win? Come on...Leon and Vasquez were something like -2 fWAR in 2018 and the team won 108 games. They had a black hole at 2b too, with Nunez. The catchers hit under .200. Your Hernandez comparo ignores Hamilton’s defensive and baserunning value. And the fact that JBJ was worth just 1.4 fWAR this year anyway. What’s your 2020 roadmap? Hot take - they aren't getting under the cap. And I'd only take Hamilton as a backup outfielder that they haven't had in 2 years now. If they could sign Shogo Akiyama for less than JBJ, I'd consider it.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 11, 2019 14:32:15 GMT -5
For all the crap said about the Red Sox system, the nice thing is you have a bunch of prospects ready or near ready to help next year in Chavis, Dalbec, Duran,Chatham, and Wilson. They don't want to call it a bridge year, but it sure seems like it will be one unless the new GM is crazy creative and makes some small deals that workout like gold. Yet finding out what those young guys can do will be huge. Are they good enough to start? Are they back-ups? Are they just up and down players (Wilson)? We don't need them to be stars, just quality players that can help and not hurt the team. So while at first a guy like Billy Hamilton seemed crazy. There isn't much on the free agent market we can afford. Bradley almost has to go if your keeping Martinez and Betts. The fact you'd have Duran and Wilson for depth makes Hamilton semi OKAY, or some guy like him you trade for. Yeah, I guess I think...well, either they blow it up and stink, or they get creative and lucky and make several $5-8M-saving moves, and find out what they have. Chavis provides a little cover for Dalbec at 1b. Lin/Hernandez/Chatham/Chavis some cover for 2b. Duran/Wilson some cover for CF/COF. As you say, there’s close to nothing for them in FA beyond fringy guys like Hamilton who, luckily for the Sox, are a relative “inefficiency” in the market: 1-1.5 win players can be signed for $1-2M deals. That makes minor downgrades from true regulars like JBJ or expensive backups/platoons like Pearce/Moreland feasible. Yeah, they lose a win here and there, but it’ll never come close to the loss of 6 wins from Mookie. And that sort of depth is at least easy to find. And if they can find a way to get some SP depth on the cheap (one of Atlanta’s young guys, Jon Gray, maybe a pillow deal bringing back Pomeranz, whatever), they at least have a *shot* at contending. And honestly, if it doesn’t work out, sell big at the deadline and reload the next winter when a lot of those 45-FV guys they have on the verge or early in their MLB careers (Dalbec, Chavis, Darwinzon, Houck, Feltman, Duran, Wilson, etc) have kinda announced who they are. They’re basically at the point of gambling pretty big (yet winning either way-playoffs or a trade deadline bonanza), or packing it in. Why not take a shot? Get crazy...see if Barnes can start. See if Dalbec can pitch. See if you can get a guy like Lorenzen and turn him back into a SP. if the alternative is losing anyway, then they have nothing to lose. I wouldn't want to see the Sox mess with Dalbec's development, most likely as a 1b which would be a new position for him, by pitching him. At this point, unless his career is at a standstill, I don't think it makes sense to take away from him trying to improve offensively and learning 1b. I think he already has enough to do to establish himself. Likewise with Casas. His value won't be from pitching either. I understand the desire to make Barnes a starter, but given how many pitches he takes to get through an inning, I'm not sure he could be an effective starter. And I also think, defense be damned here a little bit, that it's easier to find a corner OF off the scrapheap who can hit for cheap than it is to find a productive CF off the scrapheap, and I don't think Billy Hamilton will cut it offensively. I don't think the Sox can afford to have the rough equivalent of a pitcher hitting in the lineup, especially considering the Sox will likely have 50 games in which they're playing their backup catcher. A Hamilton and a Centeno or whoever (I assume not Leon) is way too many holes in the lineup - assuming they're trying to be competitive. You have some interesting ideas as to how the Red Sox replace Porcello. Unless they trade Chavis or Dalbec, two very cost effective players that they do need at this point, I'm not sure how they get that starter. I think the Red Sox are hoping that Houck is a rotation candidate in spring training. I know he looks good right now, but I'm not convinced (yet) that he's a starter. I do get your overlying point about trying to take risks if the odds are against them being competitive anyways. The next GM/POBO will have their work cut out for them. They might have a DH, who's one of the best hitters in the game, to replace, and/or a superstar RF that might be dealt, or a gold glove CF that would need to be dealt, all while trying to stabilize the right side of their infield, replace an innings eater in Porcello, supplement the bullpen, and supplement the starting pitching depth in case more injuries to occur - all while trying to compete and cut the payroll to under 208 million. Yeah, no pressure there. That's not TOO tall of an order.
|
|
gerry
Veteran
Enter your message here...
Posts: 1,667
|
Post by gerry on Oct 11, 2019 15:49:13 GMT -5
To Champs and JimEd. You may both be correct. Truly competing and re-setting by losing fan favorite players (while increasing ticket prices) in 2020 seems a strange concept. An impossible concept. But —-
Am I missing something? In addition to about $60M off the books from Panda, Pearce, Porcello, Moreland, Nunez, Leon, Hembree, Wright and lesser lights, getting closer to the $208 cap, If JDM walks and Pedey resigns (converting his ~$26M into a long term coaching/consultant contract) this ~$36M should get them under the $208M, with enough $$ left over for some pitching help; which is still issue #1. Right?
Starting 2020 with Mookie, JBJ, Beni, Holt, a more fully realized Bogaerts, Devers, CV, Marco, ERod, Workman, Darwinzon and others from the 2019-2018 core is a very good start to remaining competitive. Although the coming season, like 2019, will only succeed if the pitching is good, adding Chavis and Dalbec to this offense should further offset the loss of JDM. Re-setting for 2020 eliminates major penalties for 2021 at precisely the time as more help will be coming from the system (Chatham, Duran, Wilson, Houck, Feltman, Mata, etc). And a year from now, with lots of breathing room, will finally be time to offer FA Betts a contract, even after hopefully extending guys like Beni, Devers, ERod. This seems realistic.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 11, 2019 16:26:27 GMT -5
To Champs and JimEd. You may both be correct. Truly competing and re-setting by losing fan favorite players (while increasing ticket prices) in 2020 seems a strange concept. An impossible concept. But —- Am I missing something? In addition to about $60M off the books from Panda, Pearce, Porcello, Moreland, Nunez, Leon, Hembree, Wright and lesser lights, getting closer to the $208 cap, If JDM walks and Pedey resigns (converting his ~$26M into a long term coaching/consultant contract) this ~$36M should get them under the $208M, with enough $$ left over for some pitching help; which is still issue #1. Right? Starting 2020 with Mookie, JBJ, Beni, Holt, a more fully realized Bogaerts, Devers, CV, Marco, ERod, Workman, Darwinzon and others from the 2019-2018 core is a very good start to remaining competitive. Although the coming season, like 2019, will only succeed if the pitching is good, adding Chavis and Dalbec to this offense should further offset the loss of JDM. Re-setting for 2020 eliminates major penalties for 2021 at precisely the time as more help will be coming from the system (Chatham, Duran, Wilson, Houck, Feltman, Mata, etc). And a year from now, with lots of breathing room, will finally be time to offer FA Betts a contract, even after hopefully extending guys like Beni, Devers, ERod. This seems realistic. Pedroia is not likely giving up his remaining contract. You cannot count on that at all. That's 14 million that is not likely coming off the payroll. Heck, they still owe Sandoval $5 million and I think Manny's deferrals are still on the books? JDM is likely opting out, but if he doesn't then Mookie is more likely to be dealt. It's a coin toss if JBJ is back even if JDM opts out. Gerry, I know you like Marco Hernandez, but he is not a core player. He's a guy who pings .260 with a slugging and on-base average not much higher than that. He's a fungible utility man whose chief asset is being inexpensive. Holt is likely gone, unless he signs dirt cheap. Moreland is also likely not coming back either, nor is Porcello, even at a discount.
|
|
|
Post by orion09 on Oct 11, 2019 17:43:59 GMT -5
If JDM doesn’t opt out, they could trade JBJ. I agree with the posters above who suggest it’s more likely that they find a cheap COF bat and move Mookie to CF. Example: The Rays signed Avisail Garcia for 1y/$6M, and he gave them a 1.8 fWAR/112 WRC+ season in RF. If JDM opts out, that takes care of the cap issue. They’d be about $10M shy, which would leave room to gamble on a cheap FA bat (see above).
Another possibility is trying to offload Price or Eovaldi. They might have to include one of their 45 FV guys to get it done, but if they have to get under the cap, that’s one way to do it. Of course, that would open another hole in the rotation.
How can they fill in 1-2 SP slots for cheap? Well, the idea of Barnes as a SP is interesting. I don’t think he could give you 5+ IP because of the command issues (and lack of a 3rd pitch), but he could be effective as an opener. What about Houck? Take another page from Tampa’s book - he’s an obvious bulk guy. That would allow him to contribute next season while learning the league. We have a manager who’s smart enough to navigate the matchup issues if Houck continues to be less effective against LHB. Mata might also be ready to tryout as a bulk guy by midseason. Darwinzon could be used either as an opener or bulk guy if he can get past his second inning struggles. Going with the opener strategy for 2 slots in the rotation gives you way more financial flexibility (that’s the point!). There’s no way Dombrowski would have gone for it, but I could see the current regime being more open to it, and given the type of assets in the system, they would be smart to try it.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Oct 11, 2019 18:59:30 GMT -5
JDM opt's out. How real do you think that is? Where is he going to get $60+ mil or more? Mookie will not commit so he is traded. WOW! That opens up to your point MASSIVE rebuild ideas. Some how I think, hope Mookie stays.Got have the fans come to the game or watch NESN, Still does not matter IF the pitching does not get better. Sale 5 more yrs at $30mil, Price 3 more yrs at $30mil and NE 2 more yrs at $17 mil. If they pitch like they did this year OUCH! Still wonder if they can do anything with Pedy? Do not see him coming back. I like the idea of trading for Gray. JD's opt-out is very real in my opinion. We all know he's a DH and that there'd be a QO attached, both of which would lower market value. However I don't think that would stop Boras from recommending he goes out there nor do I feel that JDM is thinking that he's lucky to get what he's getting. He probably thinks he's worth more than he's been getting paid. In my opinion, he will opt out, and I do think he'll have some suitors. The most likely candidate are the White Sox, who could use a veteran bat to go with their young stars. I'd think Texas would be in the mix. Perhaps Seattle. I don't think there'd be a ton of candidates, but it really only takes one interested team. Lol, I responded to ryan24 before reading this and we’re bizarrely similar in our assessment, although I’m 50-50 on him opting out. I think it’s a coin flip. Honestly, I think if JDM does opt out, they should dump as much mid-range and low-end salary as possible for whatever minor league talent they can get, then say “f*ck it!!!” and go hard after Cole. I think they should do everything they can to retain Mookie, and suck it up on lux tax this year (limiting their hit by dropping as much salary as possible), and then push hard to move Price and/or Eovaldi at the deadline this summer, in a salary dump. Mata or Houck looking serviceable (like, 1.5 WAR/180 innings production, a weak 4/ok 5 level) would make that pretty palatable. Take whatever minor league talent they can get subsidizing half or less of those salaries. Hell, *include* players if they have to. But getting Cole gives them a “super hard to develop yourself” talent near Mookie’s level, in case he leaves. Come 2021, Mata should almost certainly be ready to step in as a 4/5 (very similar career arc to Rodriguez), as should Houck (who’s been pretty solid starting in the AFL and should begin 2020 in the AAA rotation). Cole/Sale/Rodriguez is a sufficient top-3 that they wouldn’t need great 4/5 production. They’re losing a lot of offense if JDM goes, but hopefully continued development from Devers, Beni, Chavis, even Bobby Dalbec...makes up part of the difference. And they’d still have Mookie and Bogey too. I doubt they’d do it (just like they didn’t get Scherzer when I wanted either), and I’m not sure it’s even a good idea (a Cole injury or continued poor Sale pitching would be devastating), but it would be a helluva lot of fun to watch Cole on the regular. Alternatives if JDM opts out: Strasbourg if he opts out (though his cost will probably be too high relative to production...he’s no Cole, and his velo has dipped) or Wheeler (Who could be this winter’s sleeper, having sat 97 last year and who’s just 29, and probably gets something like 5/$90M).
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Oct 11, 2019 19:10:59 GMT -5
Yeah, I guess I think...well, either they blow it up and stink, or they get creative and lucky and make several $5-8M-saving moves, and find out what they have. Chavis provides a little cover for Dalbec at 1b. Lin/Hernandez/Chatham/Chavis some cover for 2b. Duran/Wilson some cover for CF/COF. As you say, there’s close to nothing for them in FA beyond fringy guys like Hamilton who, luckily for the Sox, are a relative “inefficiency” in the market: 1-1.5 win players can be signed for $1-2M deals. That makes minor downgrades from true regulars like JBJ or expensive backups/platoons like Pearce/Moreland feasible. Yeah, they lose a win here and there, but it’ll never come close to the loss of 6 wins from Mookie. And that sort of depth is at least easy to find. And if they can find a way to get some SP depth on the cheap (one of Atlanta’s young guys, Jon Gray, maybe a pillow deal bringing back Pomeranz, whatever), they at least have a *shot* at contending. And honestly, if it doesn’t work out, sell big at the deadline and reload the next winter when a lot of those 45-FV guys they have on the verge or early in their MLB careers (Dalbec, Chavis, Darwinzon, Houck, Feltman, Duran, Wilson, etc) have kinda announced who they are. They’re basically at the point of gambling pretty big (yet winning either way-playoffs or a trade deadline bonanza), or packing it in. Why not take a shot? Get crazy...see if Barnes can start. See if Dalbec can pitch. See if you can get a guy like Lorenzen and turn him back into a SP. if the alternative is losing anyway, then they have nothing to lose. If that were true, why would there be any trade market for JBJ at all? It’s a great point. There might not be much of one, although that depends entirely on return. From the Sox’s standpoint, it’s a cost-cutting move. But all it takes is one team that thinks he’s a 2-3 WAR guy, not a 1.4 WAR guy. I mean, the Padres gave Hosmer his deal. A fringe contender with a significant hole or an upswing rebuilding team wanting a 1-year stopgap regular isn’t going to balk at a $10M outlay if they think it’ll help them, especially if the return is a player far from MLB or a risky AA guy with some upside. Again, I’d pose the same question I did to James: what’s your roadmap for remaining in contention while getting under the $208M threshold?
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Oct 11, 2019 19:40:29 GMT -5
My Hamilton comparison glosses over his baserunning and defense because they're likely to decline as he ages, he's been a worse hitter in recent years than he was in the past, and those deficiencies as a hitter are only going to be more exploited with more playing time. He's arguably the worst non-pitching hitter on a 40-man roster right now. The baserunning is less of a weapon because he's less able than ever to get on base. If you're talking about him as a pinch-runner and 4th outfielder because it's a better use of the last roster spot than a backup first baseman I'd be on board, but not in a role that gives him more than 200 or so plate appearances. You just can't be putting a .280 OBP guy in the starting lineup anymore, especially a lineup that succeeds from turning the lineup over and extending rallies. He's a worse option (at a couple million more) than a flyer on a Triple-A free agent. I'd give a shot to a Mason Williams or someone of that ilk who I got a recommendation on from a scout. Replacing Bradley on the cheap might be a good idea for getting under the cap. I just think there are better ways to fill that potential hole than Hamilton. Moving Betts to CF and getting a strong-armed RF who might not have the same range but can make up some of the offense could be a possibility. I dunno, they're going to need some creativity to improve the team while cutting payroll amd Hamilton is not my idea of a creative solution to the Bradley problem. The "we won with absolute holes on our roster, we can do it again" attitude is what led to them winning 84 games this year and, in part, got the GM fired. Lol, I’m not wedded to Hamilton. Some of you guys seem to be under the impression that I’m lobbying for the guy. No. Think of him as an archetype of the sort of player they’ll have to suffer through to save real $ on JBJ, in order to keep Mookie and JDM. I think it’s exceptionally unlikely his baserunning and defense fall off a cliff in one year. We’re talking about a 1-year stopgap. I’m posting a *concept*, with examples, but I’m not inflexible about those examples, if that makes sense. Maybe you sign Hamilton for 2 years (bear in mind he made $1M last year) and he becomes the 4th OF/PR in year two. Mason Williams is a good idea, too. Just...*anyone* who can play a strong defensive CF/RF and give you 1 WAR for minimal ($2.5M or less) outlay. Hell, (i think Guidas mentioned this), maybe Duran could do it, although I don’t think he’s ready on either side of the ball. But he might be, mid-season. I agree with your RF thought as well, I mentioned that earlier. It doesn’t matter...they can handle losing JBJ’s offense (lol), but not defense, IMO. My point is simply that JBJ is one of the few players with substantial salary who can be replaced at $6-8M in savings without *really* hurting them. The others are Moreland and Pearce (hence, take a shot with a group of Dalbec, Chavis, and Ockimey, plus maybe another low-cost FA platoon flier). Beyond that, they need to replace Porcello. I’ve mentioned Jon Gray and Michael Lorenzen (with a conversion back to the rotation), but there are other options there, too. Gray gives them lots of upside (he could be a 2), but will be expensive in talent and probably gets $6M in arb. Lorenzen would be less talent/$, but he’s much riskier (though I still think he should be worth 1-2 wins, and has upside as well). Basically, I think they’re going to have to approach both CF/RF (given Mookie’s flexibility) and the rotation somewhat similarly to how they approached the bullpen last winter: accumulate volume at relatively low cost, and hope someone sticks. It’s why I like Lorenzen so much: he could be a backup OF, he *probably* can start and be acceptable (I think he might be *good*), and if he doesn’t pan out in the rotation he’s still your backup OF and a solid reliever. He gives them options in multiple areas of weakness. If they’re cutting costs, they’re going to need extra depth to protect against disaster, and just shoot for 2nd-division regular production at a few spots, to keep their *superstar* production elsewhere.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Oct 11, 2019 20:09:48 GMT -5
Also, let’s be clear: we’re not talking about a -2 WAR hole. We’re talking about a marginally-above-replacement level of play. My thinking is most assuredly not “we won...yada yada yada.” You posited a truism, I debunked it. Implicit in this entire discussion is that contention will invariably be difficult IF they go under threshold, so to portray my attitude as a cavalier “we’ll be fine!!” is disingenuous. I don’t think anyone here is under the impression that it’ll be easy, or necessarily fun (although I think it will be, IF Sale is himself and Mookie and JDM stick around). It’s simply a thought exercise, thinking up plans (schemes? 🤣) to keep our binkies whilst having SOME reasonable shot at the dance. Because without our binkies, barring panic by the Dodgers and a Verdugo-May gift, there’s pretty much zero shot. Hey, LA needs relievers, so UMass’s Workman inclusion, while painful, is a damn good idea. That takes a Mookie trade from hilariously unlikely to, in the aftermath of more LA heartbreak, vaguely plausible enough to be intriguing.
Really, I’m just very curious about how people think the Sox *could* get under cap without losing Mookie OR JDM. How do they fill Porcello’s slot? Who’s the 6th starter (I’d call Houck-Darwinzon-Mata 7-8-9). Who is “expendable,” and how do you fill that spot? FTHW made a great point: their issue is depth. And UMass made a great counterpoint: there IS depth in the minors, but most of them aren’t *quite* ready. By mid season, several might be. They need rotation arms (I’d say 2, at *least* a 4 and 5; one should have 2/3 upside as protection for a reduced Sale), bullpen arms (less pressing...I think a repeat volume approach works), and a CF/RF if they move JBJ to get under cap. They also need a 1b and a 2b. I think both are lower priority given the presence of Chavis, Dalbec, Hernandez, Lin, Chatham (who can back up SS too, as can Lin), and if he’s still here, maybe JDM can get some 1b reps.
If they DO lose JDM, what do you do with those $?
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Oct 11, 2019 20:26:56 GMT -5
For all the crap said about the Red Sox system, the nice thing is you have a bunch of prospects ready or near ready to help next year in Chavis, Dalbec, Duran,Chatham, and Wilson. They don't want to call it a bridge year, but it sure seems like it will be one unless the new GM is crazy creative and makes some small deals that workout like gold. Yet finding out what those young guys can do will be huge. Are they good enough to start? Are they back-ups? Are they just up and down players (Wilson)? We don't need them to be stars, just quality players that can help and not hurt the team. So while at first a guy like Billy Hamilton seemed crazy. There isn't much on the free agent market we can afford. Bradley almost has to go if your keeping Martinez and Betts. The fact you'd have Duran and Wilson for depth makes Hamilton semi OKAY, or some guy like him you trade for. I want to double my thumbs-up here. I really couldn’t agree more. I’ve never been nearly so excited to see probably-not-star prospects, but this group is oddly intriguing. Like, what if Ockimey is a platoon monster in MLB? You really hit the nail on the head: the Sox don’t NEED stars, they already have them. They just need solid regulars and good backups. If a guy like Dalbec or Duran clicks and does a star turn, it’s ALL gravy. They’re all significantly flawed in some way, but the list (add Darwinzon, Mata, Houck, Feltman, and maybe even Ward or Shawaryn in there)...it’s starting to get LONG. Sure, they won’t all work out, but when you have that volume, the odds one—even several—correct (or minimize) their major flaws goes way up.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Oct 11, 2019 20:47:00 GMT -5
If JDM doesn’t opt out, they could trade JBJ. I agree with the posters above who suggest it’s more likely that they find a cheap COF bat and move Mookie to CF. Example: The Rays signed Avisail Garcia for 1y/$6M, and he gave them a 1.8 fWAR/112 WRC+ season in RF. If JDM opts out, that takes care of the cap issue. They’d be about $10M shy, which would leave room to gamble on a cheap FA bat (see above). Another possibility is trying to offload Price or Eovaldi. They might have to include one of their 45 FV guys to get it done, but if they have to get under the cap, that’s one way to do it. Of course, that would open another hole in the rotation. How can they fill in 1-2 SP slots for cheap? Well, the idea of Barnes as a SP is interesting. I don’t think he could give you 5+ IP because of the command issues (and lack of a 3rd pitch), but he could be effective as an opener. What about Houck? Take another page from Tampa’s book - he’s an obvious bulk guy. That would allow him to contribute next season while learning the league. We have a manager who’s smart enough to navigate the matchup issues if Houck continues to be less effective against LHB. Mata might also be ready to tryout as a bulk guy by midseason. Darwinzon could be used either as an opener or bulk guy if he can get past his second inning struggles. Going with the opener strategy for 2 slots in the rotation gives you way more financial flexibility (that’s the point!). There’s no way Dombrowski would have gone for it, but I could see the current regime being more open to it, and given the type of assets in the system, they would be smart to try it. Terrific thoughts on the rotation, especially Houck. Be a good way to acclimate him to MLB while maximizing his chances for success. And the TB strategy really does address the market inefficiency of tweeners (especially young guys who still might evoke traditional starters). Great ideas. Agree re:Barnes to some extent, though he has the SF/CH, just doesn’t use it. He might also be a bulk guy, 4-5 innings (the pre-breakout Tyler Glasnow archetype: great stuff, iffy command; Darwinzon might also fit here). Thing is, those guys are undervalued in general because they’re not traditional starter material...but they’re too good to relieve (meaning, you want more innings from them...think Mark Eichorn). More reason I like Michael Lorenzen. I think you’re right, the TB model is a perfect fit for the Sox right now.
|
|
|
Post by soxjim on Oct 11, 2019 23:54:53 GMT -5
Again, I’d pose the same question I did to James: what’s your roadmap for remaining in contention while getting under the $208M threshold? 1--- If you are going to resign both Betts and JDM it means you think you can win. That means you have confidence in Sale, Price, ERod and Eovaldi. Forget about trading Eovladi or Price-- who is going to do that? Nobody. Nobody is going to take that risk unless they see them healthy halfway through the season at least. And if you believe team has chance to win it probably means you aren't averse to taking risks with unproven players at CF, at 2b and at 1B. ANd if you don't believe in the 4 pitchers what's the point of pretending that the Sox have a chance? Also I read on here - some are a believer in Houck? 2--- Am I wrong to think Betts will get $28m? Am I wrong to think ERod will get about $8m? Am I wrong to think Beni will get about $4m? 3--- AM I wrong to think that the following 13 players account for $179m: Price, JDM, Pedey, Eovaldi, Sale, Betts, Xander, ERod, Vaz, Beni, Devers, Workman, and Barnes. Add in $15m for Medical that's $194m. Still have 27 more players, don't we? So how can Sox afford this? 4--- So you have to do something bold. You have to trade what other teams may want but you don't need to get stars back in turn. Just some youth but not having to rely on "Hamilton" or "Ockimey." IMO that;'s a complete waste. As others indicated Hamilton is no good. IMO neither is Ockimey. So this means sox have huge questions at 3 positions, -- 1b, 2b and CF. At 2b I'm all for going cheap if necessary with Hernandez and Chavis. Chavis and Lin can be players you play all over the place. But Sox are in huge need of "more players." So how about trading Beni, Vaz, Dalbec and in necessary Barnes (or Workman and Sox keep Barnes. Though I'd prefer to keep Workman.)? That frees up I'm guessing between $10.5m to $11m and instead of relying on "Hamilton" and "Dalbec/Ockimey" you can get 4 players in this deal and with a better ceiling than the bottom of "Hamilton" and Dalbec/Ockimey" considering you are trying to win. Dalbec is good to try but if you are trying to win imo he is not a reliable at 1B in 2020 is he? And I shudder to think of Ockimey on a playoff team getting lots of games because as a lefty he'd be playing most. Target guys that are already up or are coming up and take the risk. you're taking a risk anyways if you let go of JBJ and have to rely on our current situation at 2b and at 1b. They'll be cheap. For example do Dodgers need as catcher BOTH Will Smith and Keibert Ruiz? So for example if they don't want Beni see if Sox can get some other prospects from someone else and send to the Dodgers for a catcher if we trade Vaz. And Vaz can net an OF. I'd like to think Beni and Vaz can at least net 3 players possibly 4 by adding in a prospect -- of which they don''t have to be stars. Am I wrong? And they free up cap space in which Sox can get a another player in FA but more than just $1m or 2m etc.
|
|
|
Post by soxjim on Oct 11, 2019 23:57:40 GMT -5
Again, I’d pose the same question I did to James: what’s your roadmap for remaining in contention while getting under the $208M threshold?
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 12, 2019 7:12:40 GMT -5
Again, I’d pose the same question I did to James: what’s your roadmap for remaining in contention while getting under the $208M threshold? I don't know, it's like asking how to get your credit card debt under control while moving to a nicer apartment. I mean, try scratch tickets? A plan that tries to accomplish both of those goals is inevitably going to be a lot sketchier than a plan that focuses on one or the other.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 12, 2019 7:35:13 GMT -5
The Dodgers did exactly what the Red Sox need to do. There's your roadmap. But it takes more than one season to get there.
|
|
|