SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2020 Vision: Position Players
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 12, 2019 8:05:24 GMT -5
The Dodgers plan only worked so well because they have a loaded system with both positional and pitching prospects ready to not just help, but be impact players. They could easily roll out an all Dodgers starting rotation next year and likely make the playoffs. You can't be the Dodgers till we can produce some starting pitchers, nevermind the three guys they have that have #1/#2 upside.
We also play in a lot harder division, the Dodgers really had it easy and got lucky that the system aligned perfectly with their timeline. I love how the system is coming along, but we are at minimum a few years away from having the depth in that system needed to pull off what the Dodgers did.
Which is the big issue for a team saying they don't want a bridge year, yet want under the 208 line. Maybe Martinez opts out and makes things easier. If he doesn't and your plan is to win with Betts/Martinez you either will have a bunch of huge question marks or you will be trading a bunch of prospects to fill the holes.
You want to win spend some money, you want to reset then do a bridge year. Maybe you get lucky and everything works out. Yet more likely it doesn't, but a bid trade deadline could really restock the system. Just don't start gutting the farm system because you want to make more money.
|
|
|
Post by dmaineah on Oct 12, 2019 8:29:28 GMT -5
Do the Red Sox really need to make the decision to get under the cap for 2020 this off season or can that decision wait until the trade deadline? If JD does not opt out why can’t they just let the free agents walk, go with the roster as is & see where they are come July? A 5th SP ( +6,7,8 ), Bullpen options, 1B, 2B, Utility Infielder & 4th OF all have to come from within the organization. Come July if they are not in contention they trade away the pieces to get under the cap by the end of the year, if they are in contention they go for it & worry about getting under the cap another day.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Oct 12, 2019 8:42:50 GMT -5
Again, I’d pose the same question I did to James: what’s your roadmap for remaining in contention while getting under the $208M threshold? I don't know, it's like asking how to get your credit card debt under control while moving to a nicer apartment. I mean, try scratch tickets? A plan that tries to accomplish both of those goals is inevitably going to be a lot sketchier than a plan that focuses on one or the other. 🤣🤣🤣 Great metaphor (with an lol solution). But yeah, that’s the conundrum, and why I think it’s an interesting thought experiment.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Oct 12, 2019 8:45:08 GMT -5
The Dodgers did exactly what the Red Sox need to do. There's your roadmap. But it takes more than one season to get there. So hire Friedman to do it again. I like your Akiyama idea, too, depending on cost. But I think his OBPs should be high. And, he should be solid if not good, which is really all they need.
|
|
|
Post by jbsox on Oct 12, 2019 8:52:34 GMT -5
Do the Red Sox really need to make the decision to get under the cap for 2020 this off season or can that decision wait until the trade deadline? If JD does not opt out why can’t they just let the free agents walk, go with the roster as is & see where they are come July? A 5th SP ( +6,7,8 ), Bullpen options, 1B, 2B,Utility Infielder & 4th OF all have to come from within the organization. Come July if they are not in contention they trade away the pieces to get under the cap by the end of the year, if they are in contention they go for it & worry about getting under the cap for another day. I agree. The only scenario to naturally get under the tax is if JD opts out which I hope he doesn’t. It makes more sense to run it back making changes around the edges, hope for bounce seasons from our SP, and if things don’t look great at the deadline consider selling off then.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Oct 12, 2019 8:55:00 GMT -5
The Dodgers plan only worked so well because they have a loaded system with both positional and pitching prospects ready to not just help, but be impact players. They could easily roll out an all Dodgers starting rotation next year and likely make the playoffs. You can't be the Dodgers till we can produce some starting pitchers, nevermind the three guys they have that have #1/#2 upside. We also play in a lot harder division, the Dodgers really had it easy and got lucky that the system aligned perfectly with their timeline. I love how the system is coming along, but we are at minimum a few years away from having the depth in that system needed to pull off what the Dodgers did. Which is the big issue for a team saying they don't want a bridge year, yet want under the 208 line. Maybe Martinez opts out and makes things easier. If he doesn't and your plan is to win with Betts/Martinez you either will have a bunch of huge question marks or you will be trading a bunch of prospects to fill the holes. You want to win spend some money, you want to reset then do a bridge year. Maybe you get lucky and everything works out. Yet more likely it doesn't, but a bid trade deadline could really restock the system. Just don't start gutting the farm system because you want to make more money. If JDM doesn’t opt out, do they trade him? The White Sox have $, and if not “need,” at least a desire. They’re right in the sweet spot of a youth upswing where impact players make a huge difference. He might have legitimate value to them, that they might give someone valuable up to get him. Or maybe the Red Sox could get away with packaging JDM+Eovaldi, maybe including some $ to improve return. I agree with you that any further selling from the farm has to be very, very closely scrutinized. And ideally, the Sox move to replenish it if they do “bridge,” rather than looking for MLB players in return when trading. They should be scouring AA and AAA for flawed guys with skills they think they can work with. *Anybody* that can help, by playing above replacement level at essentially no cost.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Oct 12, 2019 9:26:02 GMT -5
Akiyama, for those unfamiliar. If he could be gotten at a cost savings (say, a 3/$15M deal), I think the Sox could and probably should sign him and trade JBJ. He’s a FA, not someone being posted, so it’d be a straightforward signing. Outstanding defensive CF with excellent OB skills and bat control. Sort of an Ichiro lite, with a smidge more power but not as much arm or speed (he’s still fast tho). Not a good base stealer, but I haven’t heard anything bad about other aspects of baserunning. Given his age and lack of power, he might sign relatively cheaply, so definitely worth exploring. www.cubsinsider.com/2019/10/10/cubs-should-take-long-look-at-japanese-cf-shogo-akiyama/
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 12, 2019 10:20:30 GMT -5
Akiyama, for those unfamiliar. If he could be gotten at a cost savings (say, a 3/$15M deal), I think the Sox could and probably should sign him and trade JBJ. He’s a FA, not someone being posted, so it’d be a straightforward signing. Outstanding defensive CF with excellent OB skills and bat control. Sort of an Ichiro lite, with a smidge more power but not as much arm or speed (he’s still fast tho). Not a good base stealer, but I haven’t heard anything bad about other aspects of baserunning. Given his age and lack of power, he might sign relatively cheaply, so definitely worth exploring. www.cubsinsider.com/2019/10/10/cubs-should-take-long-look-at-japanese-cf-shogo-akiyama/BP said to ignore his base stealing % stats since his team excessively uses hit and run plays. The point of those is not actually stealing bases, but when it fails, they get thrown out a lot more often than straight steals.
|
|
|
Post by jbsox on Oct 12, 2019 10:38:36 GMT -5
Do the Red Sox really need to make the decision to get under the cap for 2020 this off season or can that decision wait until the trade deadline? If JD does not opt out why can’t they just let the free agents walk, go with the roster as is & see where they are come July? A 5th SP ( +6,7,8 ), Bullpen options, 1B, 2B,Utility Infielder & 4th OF all have to come from within the organization. Come July if they are not in contention they trade away the pieces to get under the cap by the end of the year, if they are in contention they go for it & worry about getting under the cap for another day. I agree. The only scenario to naturally get under the tax is if JD opts out which I hope he doesn’t. It makes more sense to run it back making changes around the edges, hope for bounce seasons from our SP, and if things don’t look great at the deadline consider selling off then. edit: just adding there are a lot of creative ideas, but many of them just leave a hole somewhere else, or you are replacing with a lesser player (including trading JBJ). A lot of this feels very forced, and picking the lesser of evils to get under the first tax. If ownership was willing to bump up against the 3rd tax again we’ll have roughly 20 mil to play with. Maybe offer 1 or 2 year pillow deals to potential bounce back starting pitchers, sign a reliever (maybe giving DH another chance to start in triple A again) and maybe even re-sign Holt. Even if JD opts out use it as an opportunity to really bolster the SP, and maybe look for a buy low candidate at DH. We are only a year removed from arguably the best Sox team ever so I’d much rather do something like this if ownership is willing. DD had the notion of trading from surplus from the minor leagues, and we could do it in reverse when it feels right for example Price and/or EV having a bounce back year then trading next offseason when Mata and/or another minor league SP seems like he’s on the cusp of the major leagues.
|
|
Smittyw
Veteran
Posts: 1,292
Member is Online
|
Post by Smittyw on Oct 12, 2019 12:04:55 GMT -5
Regarding "it's a goal, not a mandate": I just was thinking about how crappy (and how like the Red Sox of the last few years) it would be to sacrifice JD or Mookie and end up over $208m anyway. If that's the course they choose, they'd better commit.
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 12, 2019 14:51:19 GMT -5
If JDM doesn’t opt out, do they trade him? The White Sox have $, and if not “need,” at least a desire. They’re right in the sweet spot of a youth upswing where impact players make a huge difference. He might have legitimate value to them, that they might give someone valuable up to get him. Or maybe the Red Sox could get away with packaging JDM+Eovaldi, maybe including some $ to improve return. I agree with you that any further selling from the farm has to be very, very closely scrutinized. And ideally, the Sox move to replenish it if they do “bridge,” rather than looking for MLB players in return when trading. They should be scouring AA and AAA for flawed guys with skills they think they can work with. *Anybody* that can help, by playing above replacement level at essentially no cost. Are you implying the Red Sox would eat part of his contract to get rid of JDM? Because if you mean the Red Sox would get something of value, then the next move for JDM would be to immediately fire his agent.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 12, 2019 14:56:40 GMT -5
If JDM doesn’t opt out, do they trade him? The White Sox have $, and if not “need,” at least a desire. They’re right in the sweet spot of a youth upswing where impact players make a huge difference. He might have legitimate value to them, that they might give someone valuable up to get him. Or maybe the Red Sox could get away with packaging JDM+Eovaldi, maybe including some $ to improve return. I agree with you that any further selling from the farm has to be very, very closely scrutinized. And ideally, the Sox move to replenish it if they do “bridge,” rather than looking for MLB players in return when trading. They should be scouring AA and AAA for flawed guys with skills they think they can work with. *Anybody* that can help, by playing above replacement level at essentially no cost. Are you implying the Red Sox would eat part of his contract to get rid of JDM? Because if you mean the Red Sox would get something of value, then the next move for JDM would be to immediately fire his agent. Unless he actually wants to be in Boston. It was said last offseason that the Red Sox got called by a bunch of hispanic free agents because they all like and respect Cora so much.
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 12, 2019 15:12:47 GMT -5
Akiyama, for those unfamiliar. If he could be gotten at a cost savings (say, a 3/$15M deal), I think the Sox could and probably should sign him and trade JBJ. He’s a FA, not someone being posted, so it’d be a straightforward signing. Outstanding defensive CF with excellent OB skills and bat control. Sort of an Ichiro lite, with a smidge more power but not as much arm or speed (he’s still fast tho). Not a good base stealer, but I haven’t heard anything bad about other aspects of baserunning. Given his age and lack of power, he might sign relatively cheaply, so definitely worth exploring. www.cubsinsider.com/2019/10/10/cubs-should-take-long-look-at-japanese-cf-shogo-akiyama/He would be a solid low-cost replacement. But given his age (going to be 32) and declining numbers this past year, 3 years might be too long. It's rumored he has a 23/5 deal to stay in Japan, so it will be interesting to see if he's willing to give up more total dollars to compete in MLB. If they went this route I would anticipate they non-tender JBJ as i can't imagine a team would trade for him given his salary, as glove-first aging players coming off 1.4 fWAR seasons don't typically get paid.
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 12, 2019 15:14:32 GMT -5
Are you implying the Red Sox would eat part of his contract to get rid of JDM? Because if you mean the Red Sox would get something of value, then the next move for JDM would be to immediately fire his agent. Unless he actually wants to be in Boston. It was said last offseason that the Red Sox got called by a bunch of hispanic free agents because they all like and respect Cora so much. I agree he probably wants to stay, but if Boston immediately traded him for surplus value, then it would be an incredibly stupid move to opt-in and his agent would need to be fired immediately. This isn't realistic.
|
|
|
Post by soxjim on Oct 12, 2019 21:19:54 GMT -5
The Dodgers plan only worked so well because they have a loaded system with both positional and pitching prospects ready to not just help, but be impact players. They could easily roll out an all Dodgers starting rotation next year and likely make the playoffs. You can't be the Dodgers till we can produce some starting pitchers, nevermind the three guys they have that have #1/#2 upside. We also play in a lot harder division, the Dodgers really had it easy and got lucky that the system aligned perfectly with their timeline. I love how the system is coming along, but we are at minimum a few years away from having the depth in that system needed to pull off what the Dodgers did. Which is the big issue for a team saying they don't want a bridge year, yet want under the 208 line. Maybe Martinez opts out and makes things easier. If he doesn't and your plan is to win with Betts/Martinez you either will have a bunch of huge question marks or you will be trading a bunch of prospects to fill the holes. You want to win spend some money, you want to reset then do a bridge year. Maybe you get lucky and everything works out. Yet more likely it doesn't, but a bid trade deadline could really restock the system. Just don't start gutting the farm system because you want to make more money. We're not close to ever being what the Dodgers were unless we have an ACE. It seems like most on here for example are writing off the Sox next year which is why there wasn't a lot of pushback for the firing of DD. There is an uncertainty of the starting staff. With that said-- the Dodgers can't hold a candle to what the Sox have accomplished. Winning the World Series is everything. It is the main objective to achieve. Getting Free Agents that have a big impact or making a trade that turns out to be huge is also important and as of this time the Dodgers seem to lack that big free agent pickup or that big trade to push them over. Doing "the same thing" yet not winning it all is not better than what the Sox have done. The idea is to win championships-- not be "close." Look at last year how this board went crazy in 2018 by not picking up another reliever. I can't imagine being a Dodger fan and being what the Sox were pre-2004 and that was "Just wait until next year" -- now going on year 32 for Dodgers without a title. That's not what I want the Sox to be. For me - 4 championships in 16 years I prefer as a fan vs being close so many years but never winning. Building a team through prospects is nice - it's terrific-- but winning it all is better. From 2012 through 2019-- which fan would I prefer to be Sox or Dodgers? Hands down it's Sox. The Dodgers certainly excellent in regards to winning their division so often. But at some point for big market teams that shouldn't be considered "enough." And this talk of "no doubt they'll eventually win" - nobody knows that. Nobody knows for certainty. And just because you keep knocking doesn't mean you will eventually get in. They did make a move with Pollock this year. Last year Machado. The year before Darvish. I think they got to keep trying to get damn good studs going forward and if it means give up a few prospects or spend a very large FA contract - that's what they need to do. Because other teams like the Astros, Yanks, and lesser teams like the Nats aren't going to sit back. In a perfect world it would be great to only have to minimally dip into FAgency or don't have to sell off several top prospects for a star. At least for the Sox and the Astros going into Free Agency or making big trades seemed to have helped them a great deal.
|
|
|
Post by soxjim on Oct 12, 2019 21:30:00 GMT -5
The Dodgers plan only worked so well because they have a loaded system with both positional and pitching prospects ready to not just help, but be impact players. They could easily roll out an all Dodgers starting rotation next year and likely make the playoffs. You can't be the Dodgers till we can produce some starting pitchers, nevermind the three guys they have that have #1/#2 upside. We also play in a lot harder division, the Dodgers really had it easy and got lucky that the system aligned perfectly with their timeline. I love how the system is coming along, but we are at minimum a few years away from having the depth in that system needed to pull off what the Dodgers did. Which is the big issue for a team saying they don't want a bridge year, yet want under the 208 line. Maybe Martinez opts out and makes things easier. If he doesn't and your plan is to win with Betts/Martinez you either will have a bunch of huge question marks or you will be trading a bunch of prospects to fill the holes. You want to win spend some money, you want to reset then do a bridge year. Maybe you get lucky and everything works out. Yet more likely it doesn't, but a bid trade deadline could really restock the system. Just don't start gutting the farm system because you want to make more money. If JDM doesn’t opt out, do they trade him? The White Sox have $, and if not “need,” at least a desire. They’re right in the sweet spot of a youth upswing where impact players make a huge difference. He might have legitimate value to them, that they might give someone valuable up to get him. Or maybe the Red Sox could get away with packaging JDM+Eovaldi, maybe including some $ to improve return. I agree with you that any further selling from the farm has to be very, very closely scrutinized. And ideally, the Sox move to replenish it if they do “bridge,” rather than looking for MLB players in return when trading. They should be scouring AA and AAA for flawed guys with skills they think they can work with. *Anybody* that can help, by playing above replacement level at essentially no cost. If I were the White Sox I wouldn't go after JDM too much. Their problem with hitting hasn't been power. Secondly, if they aren't in the playoff hunt again next year during in-season trade-talk why spend on JDM when in 2021 they can have more money available for Betts or Springer?
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Oct 13, 2019 19:19:34 GMT -5
If JDM doesn’t opt out, do they trade him? The White Sox have $, and if not “need,” at least a desire. They’re right in the sweet spot of a youth upswing where impact players make a huge difference. He might have legitimate value to them, that they might give someone valuable up to get him. Or maybe the Red Sox could get away with packaging JDM+Eovaldi, maybe including some $ to improve return. I agree with you that any further selling from the farm has to be very, very closely scrutinized. And ideally, the Sox move to replenish it if they do “bridge,” rather than looking for MLB players in return when trading. They should be scouring AA and AAA for flawed guys with skills they think they can work with. *Anybody* that can help, by playing above replacement level at essentially no cost. Are you implying the Red Sox would eat part of his contract to get rid of JDM? Because if you mean the Red Sox would get something of value, then the next move for JDM would be to immediately fire his agent. Not necessarily. If he opts in, he’s on just a 3-yr deal. He’d probably be looking for a 5- or 6- in FA, the back end of which is a lot more likely to have negative value. So a team would be much more likely to trade for a guy knowing they’re not beholden for an extended time and are likely to get excess value.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Oct 13, 2019 19:29:47 GMT -5
If JDM doesn’t opt out, do they trade him? The White Sox have $, and if not “need,” at least a desire. They’re right in the sweet spot of a youth upswing where impact players make a huge difference. He might have legitimate value to them, that they might give someone valuable up to get him. Or maybe the Red Sox could get away with packaging JDM+Eovaldi, maybe including some $ to improve return. I agree with you that any further selling from the farm has to be very, very closely scrutinized. And ideally, the Sox move to replenish it if they do “bridge,” rather than looking for MLB players in return when trading. They should be scouring AA and AAA for flawed guys with skills they think they can work with. *Anybody* that can help, by playing above replacement level at essentially no cost. If I were the White Sox I wouldn't go after JDM too much. Their problem with hitting hasn't been power. Secondly, if they aren't in the playoff hunt again next year during in-season trade-talk why spend on JDM when in 2021 they can have more money available for Betts or Springer? Well, JDM isn’t just a power hitter (though he is just a hitter, with negative defensive value). There’s a good argument to be made that his focus on his craft positively influences the hitters around him, which is important on a young team with talented but unpolished hitters. The question is how much would the White Sox be willing to invest in FA? Springer and Mookie are likely to command near to or even over (Mookie) twice the years, at 30-50% greater AAV than JDM. Given enough capital (they probably have it) and the extra year of development time for LouBob and the rest, they could even do both, theoretically, with the pair putting them in instant contention in 2021 and JDM’s deal ending right around when they’d need cash for their current core extensions. It’s certainly debatable what their best play is, but the great thing about FA is you don’t lose any of the talent you have...it’s just $.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Oct 13, 2019 19:39:21 GMT -5
Unless he actually wants to be in Boston. It was said last offseason that the Red Sox got called by a bunch of hispanic free agents because they all like and respect Cora so much. I agree he probably wants to stay, but if Boston immediately traded him for surplus value, then it would be an incredibly stupid move to opt-in and his agent would need to be fired immediately. This isn't realistic. Ah, I see where you’re going. Although, there’s not much a guy can do (see Bronson Arroyo). I still think it’s “realistic” but could be seen as bad faith and might hurt the Sox on future signings, so it IS unlikely.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 14, 2019 11:38:13 GMT -5
I have to agree if a team really wants Martinez doesn't he opt out? Wouldn't you rather add another year than have to trade for him?
I love Martinez and I'm not trading him if he opts in. That's a good contract for him given his age. He might be slightly underpaid, but the years are good.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 14, 2019 21:35:03 GMT -5
Howie Kendrick is sure looking like a decent 2B option, even at 36 years old. He put up 2.9 fWAR this year and has 3 doubles tonight after a season with a 146 wRC+ for $4M AAV. He'll be a FA. Imagine if the Red Sox had him instead of Nunez this year.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Oct 15, 2019 8:59:18 GMT -5
Howie Kendrick is sure looking like a decent 2B option, even at 36 years old. He put up 2.9 fWAR this year and has 3 doubles tonight after a season with a 146 wRC+ for $4M AAV. He'll be a FA. Imagine if the Red Sox had him instead of Nunez this year. Yeah, he’s cut his K rate way down and boosted his power some. I think it’s fairly “real.” Lol...having him instead of Nunez is like a 4-win swing.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 15, 2019 13:43:10 GMT -5
Howie Kendrick is sure looking like a decent 2B option, even at 36 years old. He put up 2.9 fWAR this year and has 3 doubles tonight after a season with a 146 wRC+ for $4M AAV. He'll be a FA. Imagine if the Red Sox had him instead of Nunez this year. Yeah, he’s cut his K rate way down and boosted his power some. I think it’s fairly “real.” Lol...having him instead of Nunez is like a 4-win swing. Wow, I knew he had a good season but that .572 slugging is wild to see. The problem is he's been a really good hitter as a part timer for three years now, to where I don't really see him getting less than Holt.
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Oct 15, 2019 14:09:15 GMT -5
Asking bc I saw some comments that suggest the Sox are looking to get under 208 so they may trade Mookie. We don't actually believe that to be true, right?
|
|
gerry
Veteran
Enter your message here...
Posts: 1,667
|
Post by gerry on Oct 15, 2019 14:49:37 GMT -5
Asking bc I saw some comments that suggest the Sox are looking to get under 208 so they may trade Mookie. We don't actually believe that to be true, right? For myself, I can’t wrap my brain around the idea that ownership would trade a legit shot at another championship in 2020 to reset the cap in 2020. It makes zero sense. Between $60M and $100M are coming off the books depending on whether JDM opts out and Pedey’s status. The Sox are already below the top cap. With some $$ league minimum talent like Chavis, Chatham, Dalbec, Houck etc. coming up, the Sox could also slide under the 2nd cap. So financial penalties for fielding this team could be minimal; and should be acceptable if the team can compete in October. Mookie and JBJ are under control for another year, allowing the Sox to again field a premier outfield defense while guys like Duran and Wilson prepare for the jump. It was the starting pitching that lost 2019. Repeat: it was the Starting Pitching that lost 2019, and we are told by the Sox we can reasonably expect bounce back years from Sale, Price, Eovaldi. We have seen that, even overused, Relief Pitching is good to very good and should be better and deeper in 2020. This team already has a top offense. It is also still young and largely homegrown. Throwing away the potential for another WS to reset the cap this year (a noble goal under different circumstances) makes, as I stated above, zero sense. IMO Better to wait until November 2020 after an exciting post-season and, perhaps, Mookie and JBJ are regrettably gone and the next wave of prospects like Duran, Wilson, Chatham, Feltman, Mata are getting their MLB feet under them. Edit: I know someone is going to take granular issue with elements of this post, as keeping JBJ to maintain one of the best OF in baseball, or the value of certain prospects. All variables aside, gutting a WS capable team to reset now, while raising tocket prices, is a silly thing to do.
|
|
|