SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
A Mookie Betts Trade Return
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 3, 2020 17:22:53 GMT -5
Can't wait for the breaking news at 11 pm that Boston has traded Mookie Betts and the entire David Price contract for AJ Pollock with the Dodgers covering some and a lottery ticket. It will be a very long wait for you then!
|
|
|
Post by southernredsoxality on Feb 3, 2020 17:39:01 GMT -5
Can't wait for the breaking news at 11 pm that Boston has traded Mookie Betts and the entire David Price contract for AJ Pollock with the Dodgers covering some and a lottery ticket. It will be a very long wait for you then! That's obviously an extreme outcome but I'm very nervous with all this Price chatter around the deal. I mean trading Mookie is tough enough but I can live with it if we get a great package back. However using Mookie's value in any way to get rid of Price is as dumb as dumb gets.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
|
Post by ericmvan on Feb 3, 2020 17:44:18 GMT -5
Random thought: What's puzzling about the Padres reports is that they reportedly can't take on more salary, hence their need to dump Myers' contract, but they are also very reluctant to trade from their farm system. But that's incoherent. You're going to have to give a up a lot of prospects if you're shipping out Myers in order to be able to afford Mookie or Price (or both).
So I read the "reluctance to part with prospects" reports as hype.
So, once we've traded Mookie, the Price trade that might make sense for both clubs is to the Padres, with Myers and a big honking prospect package coming back. But the Padres would have to be valuing Price at his hoped-for mid-season value. We're talking a huge package.
And of course, once that's on the table, than the Dodgers are motivated to get Price, and we would could ask to pay more of his salary and get even a bigger prospect package.
But note that the Price deal would really be a separate one. It wouldn't necessarily be part of the Betts for Verdugo trade.
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 3, 2020 17:44:52 GMT -5
Living in California I'll tell you: Dodger fans are imbeciles Giants fans are oblivious Angels fans are content A's fans are a mixed bag Padres fans...will tell you when I meet one In other words, don't put too much stock in sports forums for California baseball teams. As someone who also lives in California I can say with some confidence that they'd say the same things about Sox fans. I don't think those Dodgers fans are being exceptionally delusional their rationality is influenced by emotion just like the Sox fans on here that think that unless the Sox can get Gore or Lux they shouldn't trade Mookie. Every team has "crazy" fans, we're no different. I used too strong a word. Difference is that Fenway isn't only halfway full until the third inning and doesn't empty halfway-out during the 7th inning in a close game. Traffic is different in LA, but i just can't see that happening in Boston. This mentality exists outside of this example as well and leads the average Dodger fan (there are of course smart and knowledgeable Dodger fans) to be more ignorant of the players/team. Referencing the original statement of Dodger fans mentality that they are 'taking Mookie off the Red Sox hands in a salary dump', in my opinion, is due to them being unaware of Mookie's talent level. I guarantee you they don't think of him as the second best player in baseball - which he has been by fWAR over the last 2, 3, 4 & 5 years. Now regarding Red Sox fans, if they do trade for Jeter Downs, and he struggles upon being given a starting job in 2021/2022, i think the fan backlash he receives will be rougher than if he had a non-Yankee related name.
|
|
|
Post by Canseco on Feb 3, 2020 17:46:25 GMT -5
I’m not thrilled with the idea of a Jeter playing for the Sox. It feels wrong. WRONG! Hahaha. That is EXACTLY what I was referencing. Well done!
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Feb 3, 2020 17:59:22 GMT -5
Let’s predict which reporter breaks the trade.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
|
Post by ericmvan on Feb 3, 2020 18:02:44 GMT -5
It will be a very long wait for you then! That's obviously an extreme outcome but I'm very nervous with all this Price chatter around the deal. I mean trading Mookie is tough enough but I can live with it if we get a great package back. However using Mookie's value in any way to get rid of Price is as dumb as dumb gets. I'm fairly sure that nothing remotely like that is happening. Price still projects to fit into the Dodgers' rotation near the top. They are going all in for 2020 if they're trading Verdugo, their #3 prospect, and a third guy for a year of Mookie Betts. Meanwhile, as has been reported, what then makes sense for the Sox is to wait on Price. He likely has more value at mid-season than now, and there's a solid chance that we could use that value ourselves.
So this would be the Dodgers asking for Price, and the Sox seeing if they're wiling to overpay for him the way they seem to be overpaying for Mookie. And we can offer a very attractive Price to them by offering him at a very attractive price (sorry, couldn't resist).
A lot of media idiots can't discriminate between a bad player with a bad contract and a near-elite player with a bad (i.e., elite-player) contract. Price has real trade value as soon as you eat $7M a year or so of his contract (maybe even $5M). The more you eat, the more desirable he becomes. And the Padres want him too.
There was no compelling reason to trade both of these guys. Just one, to get under the limit. An overpay for Mookie is a double win because it puts us in a position to be choosy about a Price trade.
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 3, 2020 18:09:23 GMT -5
Let’s predict which reporter breaks the trade. Some random local guy will confirm it but Rosenthal will have the details first.
|
|
|
Post by kman22 on Feb 3, 2020 18:14:24 GMT -5
That's obviously an extreme outcome but I'm very nervous with all this Price chatter around the deal. I mean trading Mookie is tough enough but I can live with it if we get a great package back. However using Mookie's value in any way to get rid of Price is as dumb as dumb gets. I'm fairly sure that nothing remotely like that is happening. Price still projects to fit into the Dodgers' rotation near the top. They are going all in for 2020 if they're trading Verdugo, their #3 prospect, and a third guy for a year of Mookie Betts. Meanwhile, as has been reported, what then makes sense for the Sox is to wait on Price. He likely has more value at mid-season than now, and there's a solid chance that we could use that value ourselves.
So this would be the Dodgers asking for Price, and the Sox seeing if they're wiling to overpay for him the way they seem to be overpaying for Mookie. And we can offer a very attractive Price to them by offering him at a very attractive price (sorry, couldn't resist).
A lot of media idiots can't discriminate between a bad player with a bad contract and a near-elite player with a bad (i.e., elite-player) contract. Price has real trade value as soon as you eat $7M a year or so of his contract (maybe even $5M). The more you eat, the more desirable he becomes. And the Padres want him too.
There was no compelling reason to trade both of these guys. Just one, to get under the limit. An overpay for Mookie is a double win because it puts us in a position to be choosy about a Price trade.
Can't remember who tossed the idea out there many pages back, but say you get a solid haul for just Mookie. Does Price to the Padres for Myers and prospects seem possible? I'm sure they'd need some help financially, but if you could buy a couple more prospects to rebuild the farm, on top of the Mookie return, seems like you'd have to at least discuss it, right? Or maybe my brain is fried from all the rumors and speculation.
|
|
|
Post by southernredsoxality on Feb 3, 2020 18:15:25 GMT -5
That's obviously an extreme outcome but I'm very nervous with all this Price chatter around the deal. I mean trading Mookie is tough enough but I can live with it if we get a great package back. However using Mookie's value in any way to get rid of Price is as dumb as dumb gets. I'm fairly sure that nothing remotely like that is happening. Price still projects to fit into the Dodgers' rotation near the top. They are going all in for 2020 if they're trading Verdugo, their #3 prospect, and a third guy for a year of Mookie Betts. Meanwhile, as has been reported, what then makes sense for the Sox is to wait on Price. He likely has more value at mid-season than now, and there's a solid chance that we could use that value ourselves.
So this would be the Dodgers asking for Price, and the Sox seeing if they're wiling to overpay for him the way they seem to be overpaying for Mookie. And we can offer a very attractive Price to them by offering him at a very attractive price (sorry, couldn't resist).
A lot of media idiots can't discriminate between a bad player with a bad contract and a near-elite player with a bad (i.e., elite-player) contract. Price has real trade value as soon as you eat $7M a year or so of his contract (maybe even $5M). The more you eat, the more desirable he becomes. And the Padres want him too.
There was no compelling reason to trade both of these guys. Just one, to get under the limit. An overpay for Mookie is a double win because it puts us in a position to be choosy about a Price trade.
I get what you're saying and I'm hopeful that this is the case, but I'm still nervous.
|
|
mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,795
|
Post by mobaz on Feb 3, 2020 18:31:38 GMT -5
Let’s predict which reporter breaks the trade. Some random local guy will confirm it but Rosenthal will have the details first. I say Kenny Bowtie
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 3, 2020 18:37:18 GMT -5
I was reading some posts from a Dodgers forum, and not surprisingly, a lot of them have the opposite perspective of many on here. A bunch of them don't want to trade years of cost-controlled productive player like Verdugo on top of some other good prospects for one season of Betts. They think the Sox' main goal here is a salary dump, so they think we shouldn't get much back for him. I even read many of them skeptical of Mookie and all things Sox and Astros now. Questioning whether 2018 was "Cora" Mookie, insinuating that he could have been cheating to achieve that all-time great season... Just something to think about; usually when these big trades go down, both sides fanbases seem to think they're drawing the short straw. Mookie Betts in 2018 had a 190 wRC+ at home and ONLY a 181 wRC+ on the road. So maybe they're onto something. What the Red Sox are accused of doing wasn't a home/road thing. The teams have access to the video room on the road too. The split you're looking for (which is even better) is this: Bases empty .358/.435/.653, 191 wRC+ Men on .319/.444/.613, 172 wRC+
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Feb 3, 2020 18:45:19 GMT -5
Mookie Betts in 2018 had a 190 wRC+ at home and ONLY a 181 wRC+ on the road. So maybe they're onto something. What the Red Sox are accused of doing wasn't a home/road thing. The teams have access to the video room on the road too. The split you're looking for (which is even better) is this: Bases empty .358/.435/.653, 191 wRC+ Men on .319/.444/.613, 172 wRC+ Well yeah, but the people making these genius observations are just assuming that the Red Sox did the same thing as the Astros. And when you look at it even further, it would only be effective with a runner on 2nd, after they stole the signs with a runner on 2nd prior to that by seeing enough pitches and before the signs were switched. And exactly how much more effective is this than runners decoding and relaying the signs without electronic help anyway? I'm going to guess that we're close to Sample Size Meaningless even if guilty.
|
|
|
Post by jdb on Feb 3, 2020 19:30:44 GMT -5
Let’s predict which reporter breaks the trade. My money is on Beltran’s niece.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,988
|
Post by jimoh on Feb 3, 2020 20:42:10 GMT -5
[...]
A lot of media idiots can't discriminate between a bad player with a bad contract and a near-elite player with a bad (i.e., elite-player) contract. Price has real trade value as soon as you eat $7M a year or so of his contract (maybe even $5M). The more you eat, the more desirable he becomes. And the Padres want him too.
There was no compelling reason to trade both of these guys. Just one, to get under the limit. An overpay for Mookie is a double win because it puts us in a position to be choosy about a Price trade.
Hmm, the idea that Price's contract for 3/96 is attractive if you get it down to 3/75 or even 3/81 is... surprising. Where is the indicator that the Padres want him too? I missed that.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 3, 2020 20:45:48 GMT -5
[...] A lot of media idiots can't discriminate between a bad player with a bad contract and a near-elite player with a bad (i.e., elite-player) contract. Price has real trade value as soon as you eat $7M a year or so of his contract (maybe even $5M). The more you eat, the more desirable he becomes. And the Padres want him too. There was no compelling reason to trade both of these guys. Just one, to get under the limit. An overpay for Mookie is a double win because it puts us in a position to be choosy about a Price trade.
Hmm, the idea that Price's contract for 3/96 is attractive if you get it down to 3/75 or even 3/81 is... surprising. Where is the indicator that the Padres want him too? I missed that. You didn't miss anything. There has been absolutely nothing mentioned in any media reports about the Padres wanting David Price's contract even with the idea of offsetting it against Myers' deal.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,988
|
Post by jimoh on Feb 3, 2020 20:51:31 GMT -5
Hmm, the idea that Price's contract for 3/96 is attractive if you get it down to 3/75 or even 3/81 is... surprising. Where is the indicator that the Padres want him too? I missed that. You didn't miss anything. There has been absolutely nothing mentioned in any media reports about the Padres wanting David Price's contract even with the idea of offsetting it against Myers' deal. You misread my tone.
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on Feb 3, 2020 21:06:55 GMT -5
Let’s predict which reporter breaks the trade. Jeff Passan
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 3, 2020 21:18:32 GMT -5
You didn't miss anything. There has been absolutely nothing mentioned in any media reports about the Padres wanting David Price's contract even with the idea of offsetting it against Myers' deal. You misread my tone. Apparently so. Carry on.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 3, 2020 21:19:19 GMT -5
Let’s predict which reporter breaks the trade. Jeff Passan I agree with you - I think it will be Jeff Passan and it will be tomorrow evening.
|
|
|
Post by baseballlifer34 on Feb 3, 2020 21:25:32 GMT -5
Ugh. Grain of salt, but I heard Jim Bowden say that he heard that Gonsolin is not a part of the deal on MLB Network Radio.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,169
|
Post by cdj on Feb 3, 2020 21:27:08 GMT -5
Ugh. Grain of salt, but I heard Jim Bowden say that he heard that Gonsolin is not a part of the deal on MLB Network Radio. Well Bowden stinks but if Gonsolin isn’t in it then that doesn’t mean a Gray or a Ferguson isn’t too
|
|
|
Post by baseballlifer34 on Feb 3, 2020 21:29:34 GMT -5
Ugh. Grain of salt, but I heard Jim Bowden say that he heard that Gonsolin is not a part of the deal on MLB Network Radio. Well Bowden stinks but if Gonsolin isn’t in it then that doesn’t mean a Gray or a Ferguson isn’t too His sources are pretty good, even if he has a quick trigger on Twitter.
|
|
|
Post by soxaddict on Feb 3, 2020 21:30:35 GMT -5
Ken Rosenthal. Red Sox send Betts to the Dodgers for Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs, Conner Wong and Marshall Kasowski.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 3, 2020 21:33:14 GMT -5
Ugh. Grain of salt, but I heard Jim Bowden say that he heard that Gonsolin is not a part of the deal on MLB Network Radio. Well Bowden stinks but if Gonsolin isn’t in it then that doesn’t mean a Gray or a Ferguson isn’t too You have to figure it's Verdugo, a starting pitcher, probably a catcher given the lack of catching in the system (Ruiz), and a low A ball guy with a long way to go. So not Gonsolin could be Ross Stripling just as easily as it could mean Gray or Ferguson. If Price is gone and they're not replacing him in the rotation you have to wonder if they're kind of conceding this season. I mean, you replace Betts with Verdugo, you don't know how long it will take him to recover from his back issues, you have Sale, E-Rod, Eovaldi, Perez, and a bullpen day every 5th day lined up in the rotation and a questionable bullpen and some offensive holes in the bottom 3rd of the lineup. Not the end of the world if that's the case, as you'd figure 2021 would be the goal to start loading back up again for contention (that doesn't mean bringing back Mookie necessarily though). But if not Gonsolin, then perhaps it is Stripling so that they do have a major league caliber 5th starter. But then again, when is Jim Bowden ever right anyways?
|
|
|