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Post by voiceofreason on May 9, 2020 8:13:57 GMT -5
For sure they are in jail this year and with the challenges replacing key players, the strength of schedule and the virus going on it might be the best time to reset the budget just like the Sox.
From what I have been reading/watching, the Pats are seriously looking at going for it while they have Stidham on a rookie deal. So we might see some fireworks in FA over the next few years making the cheap costs of the latest draft picks really important. It would go a long way towards winning if they have a bunch of guys contributing/excelling on rookie deals. And given the situation they are in I would think they would be drafting in the midteens next year, can't underestimate the value of picks that are 10-15 slots earlier in each rd especially with the way BB likes to move around. They are also going to get extra picks from all of this years FA losses, couple extra 3rds and a 4th I think.
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Post by costpet on May 9, 2020 8:21:44 GMT -5
The problem this year is that there will be limited time for rookies to show their stuff. Or learn the playbook. I wonder how long training camp will be and how many preseason games will be played. It will be a lot tougher for a rookie, especially an UDFA, to make the team. That's probably good for veterans, who are already known.
That means practices will be especially important to the rookies to show what they have, as playing in an actual game will be limited.
I wonder if they'll invite Dante back for training camp just to get everyone straight.
This is supposed to be a Pats down year, but with BB at the helm and the whole league screwed up, it might turn out much better than expected.
When you wish upon a star...
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 9, 2020 12:51:33 GMT -5
Just watched tape on JJ Taylor and it's not what I expected. He runs with a lot more power than you'd expect from the smallest RB in the draft. Kinda reminds me of Warrick Dunn from back in the day. A natural receiver that is very good in the open field. Really a Taylor made Patriots third down back. He's like Michel he operates best when you spread the field allowing him to make guys miss. The negatives are he's tiny, he tries to block but he's not stopping NFL caliber DL guys. Still Bolden and Buckhead better watch out! If we didn't have James White I'd almost call him a lock to make the team. Yet will they carry two third down RB? He's also a very good returner. Bill really knocked it out of the park with UDFA this year. You could have taken Thomas and Taylor in the third and fourth rounds and no one would have said a thing. He's another guy who shows 40 times don't matter that much for RB. He looks a lot faster than his time. I agree on the BB killing it this year with UDFA's It would be great for the salary cap in the future to have a few guys from late in the draft and undrafted guys to contribute. In regards to JJ i liked what I saw and he does have great short area quickness but with those short legs he got caught from behind al ot also. He is versatile and tough though. The salary cap is kinda a bonus. I'm a big believer in building chemistry with a new QB. I buy into the theory of getting him weapons when he's young that he grows with. Thomas adds that outside guy with speed and Taylor can be his 3rd down RB. Add that to two rookie WR from last year, two new TEs, two younger RBs and you have a whole group for him to grow with. Taylor isn't a true burner but I didn't see him get caught a ton. He actually looks faster than he timed. I'm sure DB in the NFL will run him down. Yet he makes cuts and gets to full speed in no time. His top end isn't the greatest, yet 5-15 yards he explodes. It's the way I wish Michel would run frankly. He explodes out of cuts, Michel dances for multiple cuts and rarely explodes. He should be able to get you those big plays 5-15 yard runs. |
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Post by beasleyrockah on May 9, 2020 13:02:15 GMT -5
There's a real chance the 2021 cap could be significantly lower than we expected it'd be before COVID-19. If there are no fans and/or cancelled games the cap numbers could drop significantly even if they decide to spread the adjustment over a few seasons. The Patriots have a lot of key FA's after this season which is partly why they'll have so much cap space, but it's a great time to have thats flexibility. Next offseason we could see a lot of players being forced to sign bargain deals, as a lot of teams could be hard against the adjusted cap.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 10, 2020 8:09:49 GMT -5
The problem this year is that there will be limited time for rookies to show their stuff. Or learn the playbook. I wonder how long training camp will be and how many preseason games will be played. It will be a lot tougher for a rookie, especially an UDFA, to make the team. That's probably good for veterans, who are already known. That means practices will be especially important to the rookies to show what they have, as playing in an actual game will be limited. I wonder if they'll invite Dante back for training camp just to get everyone straight. This is supposed to be a Pats down year, but with BB at the helm and the whole league screwed up, it might turn out much better than expected. When you wish upon a star... Dante retired because he wanted to. I doubt he’d be back and I doubt they’d invite him back to step on the new offensive line coaches toes. |
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Post by rjp313jr on May 10, 2020 10:28:15 GMT -5
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Post by voiceofreason on May 10, 2020 11:03:40 GMT -5
Right but that’s speculation like is being done here. If a guy gets drafted by a team with a position change in mind, that is reported right away. Because a team isn’t going to take a guy and change is position without him agreeing to it ahead of time. Not saying it won’t happen down the road but it’s not the current plan is all. Responding to Voice for this part.... i don’t consider them deep at guard. Having unproven bodies there isn’t being deep. Froholdt is the one guy we can try to point to but he’s unproven, coming iff major injury and really struggled prior to that injury. The veterans basically suck. So we have two potential studs (if Mason bounces back) and then huge question marks. rip I just saw this video on Froholdt from preseason last year and he looked anything but struggling, he looks downright dominating with more than a few pancakes. Also sustains blocks really well, he looks very promising. Just watched it again, he does a great job of keeping his feet moving to sustain blocks. |
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Post by philarhody on May 10, 2020 11:58:33 GMT -5
Right but that’s speculation like is being done here. If a guy gets drafted by a team with a position change in mind, that is reported right away. Because a team isn’t going to take a guy and change is position without him agreeing to it ahead of time. Not saying it won’t happen down the road but it’s not the current plan is all. Responding to Voice for this part.... i don’t consider them deep at guard. Having unproven bodies there isn’t being deep. Froholdt is the one guy we can try to point to but he’s unproven, coming iff major injury and really struggled prior to that injury. The veterans basically suck. So we have two potential studs (if Mason bounces back) and then huge question marks. rip I just saw this video on Froholdt from preseason last year and he looked anything but struggling, he looks downright dominating with more than a few pancakes. Also sustains blocks really well, he looks very promising. Just watched it again, he does a great job of keeping his feet moving to sustain blocks. Yeah for some reason Phil Perry was talking about how terrible this guy was last preseason. That video is put out with an interest in promoting Danish football. So it may not be as objective. But it’s worth noting that I think I recall pro football focus had Froholdt as their second highest rated guard going into last year’s draft. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 10, 2020 13:17:55 GMT -5
Study from 2010 to 2018 showed ticket revenue dropped as percentage of revenue for every year to 15% in 2018. If more people watch from home TV add revenue would increase. So if there's a full season without fans the cap isn't going to be hit that hard and it you spread it out over years you won't even notice it. It's really about if they play a full season, not the fans.
They have a lot of free agents, yet most aren't prime aged guys who will get huge contracts. Heck most can easily be replaced besides Thuney and Hightower. Yet even if you wanted to resign all of them it likely doesn't even take half your cap space.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 10, 2020 16:53:49 GMT -5
I don’t really think watching a guards highlight rail tells you anything. I didn’t read any reports out of camp that had him anything but struggling. I have high(ish) hopes for the guy but I’m way more in the concerned camp than I am in the future starter camp.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 10, 2020 16:55:26 GMT -5
Study from 2010 to 2018 showed ticket revenue dropped as percentage of revenue for every year to 15% in 2018. If more people watch from home TV add revenue would increase. So if there's a full season without fans the cap isn't going to be hit that hard and it you spread it out over years you won't even notice it. It's really about if they play a full season, not the fans. They have a lot of free agents, yet most aren't prime aged guys who will get huge contracts. Heck most can easily be replaced besides Thuney and Hightower. Yet even if you wanted to resign all of them it likely doesn't even take half your cap space. Does add revenue really matter? Don’t networks pay for the rights then they get whatever they can from ad sales? I’m not sure how the contracts work but I thought they paid a set amount for TV rights. Is there revenue sharing on top of that? |
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Post by beasleyrockah on May 10, 2020 17:36:53 GMT -5
overthecap.com/what-could-happen-to-the-salary-cap-in-2021/Jason Fitzgerald (Over The Cap) has suggested local revenues are about 45% of the pie. He says a 40% decline in local revenues would trigger a 31m drop in 2021 cap space. Ticket sales are only one part of the local revenue equation. There will be no concession sales and no more fans flooding the pro shop before and after games. Having no fans in the stadium drops the local advertising opportunities, plus all the promotional stuff teams do during a season. All the benefits that come along with fans flooding your stadium are gone (Patriots Place will suffer for sure). Plus, it's very likely the preseason will be scaled back if not cancelled entirely. Can anyone really imagine each team playing all four meaningless football games in such a difficult environment? They need some type of ramp up, but team scrimmages in a controlled environment away from the scrutiny of TV cameras makes more sense. Losing those preseason games will have an impact.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 11, 2020 9:06:19 GMT -5
Study from 2010 to 2018 showed ticket revenue dropped as percentage of revenue for every year to 15% in 2018. If more people watch from home TV add revenue would increase. So if there's a full season without fans the cap isn't going to be hit that hard and it you spread it out over years you won't even notice it. It's really about if they play a full season, not the fans. They have a lot of free agents, yet most aren't prime aged guys who will get huge contracts. Heck most can easily be replaced besides Thuney and Hightower. Yet even if you wanted to resign all of them it likely doesn't even take half your cap space. Does add revenue really matter? Don’t networks pay for the rights then they get whatever they can from ad sales? I’m not sure how the contracts work but I thought they paid a set amount for TV rights. Is there revenue sharing on top of that? I have no clue if they have kickbacks based on ratings. I really shouldn't have said TV Adds, yet there are a million ways they make money and more viewers is only going to help. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 11, 2020 9:12:53 GMT -5
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Post by ryan24 on May 11, 2020 9:35:32 GMT -5
We now have the projected schedule for the season. Is it still possible for an 11 win season? Any one got a new projection? 7th hardest schedule. New rookie QB. New rookie Left tackle. New o-line coach. Lots of balls floating in the air. Stidham a potential top 10 qb in the league in the future? Should be very interesting. One of the strengths in the past has been preseason prep time and extended practices with teams. Not sure you will be able to spend the week practicing with the lions. Not even sure they will play 16 games. I see 8-8
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 11, 2020 9:47:20 GMT -5
We now have the projected schedule for the season. Is it still possible for an 11 win season? Any one got a new projection? 7th hardest schedule. New rookie QB. New rookie Left tackle. New o-line coach. Lots of balls floating in the air. Stidham a potential top 10 qb in the league in the future? Should be very interesting. One of the strengths in the past has been preseason prep time and extended practices with teams. Not sure you will be able to spend the week practicing with the lions. Not even sure they will play 16 games. I see 8-8 New rookie LT? Wynn is going into year three this year. Brady was a below average QB last year, by far his worst ever when compared to league average by stats. So the bar for improvement is low. It's not like Stidham has to be elite for us to win games. Even if he's average you have a better offense. If the whole league has less practice time, doesn't that benefit the Patriots? The days of the Patriots practicing more are long gone with the NFL rules, they just practice harder than other teams now. In uncertain times, I'll always side with the best coach ever! I also think Stidham with a year plus in the offense plays into that rather than bringing in a new guy. Hoyer and Stidham know the system. If Stidham was a rookie I'd worry a lot more. |
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Post by ryan24 on May 11, 2020 10:04:07 GMT -5
We now have the projected schedule for the season. Is it still possible for an 11 win season? Any one got a new projection? 7th hardest schedule. New rookie QB. New rookie Left tackle. New o-line coach. Lots of balls floating in the air. Stidham a potential top 10 qb in the league in the future? Should be very interesting. One of the strengths in the past has been preseason prep time and extended practices with teams. Not sure you will be able to spend the week practicing with the lions. Not even sure they will play 16 games. I see 8-8 New rookie LT? Wynn is going into year three this year. Brady was a below average QB last year, by far his worst ever when compared to league average by stats. So the bar for improvement is low. It's not like Stidham has to be elite for us to win games. Even if he's average you have a better offense. If the whole league has less practice time, doesn't that benefit the Patriots? The days of the Patriots practicing more are long gone with the NFL rules, they just practice harder than other teams now. In uncertain times, I'll always side with the best coach ever! I also think Stidham with a year plus in the offense plays into that rather than bringing in a new guy. Hoyer and Stidham know the system. If Stidham was a rookie I'd worry a lot more. I was referring to practice during the week of exhit games when they practice against another team for the week. Not that they have extra practice time. They had practice against the lions last year during training camp before the regular season. Stidham is a rookie from the standpoint he has never been in the situation with the game on the line. Some guys are great in practice but struggle to deliver when it counts. That is not to say that he will not develop into a great QB. But, it is his first time down in the 4th in Seattle trying to get down the field for a score and the lead. Tom for many years, maybe not last year, was excellent at this. |
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Post by ryan24 on May 11, 2020 10:35:54 GMT -5
New rookie LT? Wynn is going into year three this year. Brady was a below average QB last year, by far his worst ever when compared to league average by stats. So the bar for improvement is low. It's not like Stidham has to be elite for us to win games. Even if he's average you have a better offense. If the whole league has less practice time, doesn't that benefit the Patriots? The days of the Patriots practicing more are long gone with the NFL rules, they just practice harder than other teams now. In uncertain times, I'll always side with the best coach ever! I also think Stidham with a year plus in the offense plays into that rather than bringing in a new guy. Hoyer and Stidham know the system. If Stidham was a rookie I'd worry a lot more. I was referring to practice during the week of exhit games when they practice against another team for the week. Not that they have extra practice time. They had practice against the lions last year during training camp before the regular season. Stidham is a rookie from the standpoint he has never been in the situation with the game on the line. Some guys are great in practice but struggle to deliver when it counts. That is not to say that he will not develop into a great QB. But, it is his first time down in the 4th in Seattle trying to get down the field for a score and the lead. Tom for many years, maybe not last year, was excellent at this. Wynne was drafted 3 years ago. Missed the entire first year injured and played only 6 regular season games last year, because he was hurt. Rookie maybe the wrong word, maybe inexperienced or limited experience is better. This year he will have a new line coach and an inexperienced qb to protect. Not saying he will not be good just that it is questionable to me how he does until he actually does it. It also brings up the question of whether he is injury prone. Will he be able to play the whole season? Who is the back up if he gets hurt for a long period of time? The question with Bill is because of these uncertain times will he be able to be as prepared as has been in the past and be able to get it across to an inexperienced qb.?Time will tell. I certainly like the pats chances accomplishing good things, they could come out and be 5-0 and I can say I was wrong to question. But, I also see where they could be 0-5 or 2-3. Things are different this coming season for a lot of reasons. The 0-5 mark is probably a BIG stretch. Some of the statements made seem to be too much hype and not being more realistic. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 11, 2020 11:19:58 GMT -5
I think every team does joint practices, if not most do. That's not a Patriot only thing.
Every team has new players and question marks. Sure the Patriots do, yet it's not like other teams don't.
It's how you view Stidham and Bill. Last time Brady was going to not play he drafted an extra guy to backup Jimmy. Brisset has won a bunch of NFL games and is a decent QB. I trust Bill if he believes in Stidham, he had many other options. He has franchise QB upside.
If you look at the first five games and see 0-5, then I don't know what to tell you. Dolphins, Raiders and Broncos, along with Seahawks and Chiefs.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 11, 2020 11:52:50 GMT -5
The Patriots often do start slower and get better as the year goes on, last year was basically the opposite of how things normally go for them Mx.
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Post by beasleyrockah on May 11, 2020 12:44:58 GMT -5
I know, I literally said that in my last comment and mentioned most of the other aspects of local revenue. Your article mentions less of them than I did, but literally the second example is concession sales…how will those sales be without fans? I count zero dollars to be made without fans. How will the local corporate sponsorship opportunities be with empty stadiums compared to full stadiums? Most of the aspects of local revenue are directly tied to ticket sales and having fans in the stadium. Also, your local Pro Shop merchandise sales (which I believe aren't shared with the league like NFL.com sales are shared, but I could be wrong) will drop significantly without having fans at your stadium. Also, If preseason games are scrapped you lose the local TV revenue from those broadcasts, as preseason games are usually local broadcasts. You lose all the promotional opportunities that come with a full stadium which will hurt your local advertising revenue. Yes, ticket sales are only one part of the local revenues, but without any ticket sales other aspects of the local revenues are directly affected. You certainly can't just deduct ticket sales and think the other aspects of local revenue will be normal without fans, that doesn't make any sense. The only question is how much money the NFL will lose without fans, and if the cap effect will be minor or significant. Expecting some huge increase in national ad revenue from an increase in TV ratings to offset all these losses is delusional imo. |
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Post by ryan24 on May 12, 2020 6:15:21 GMT -5
I think every team does joint practices, if not most do. That's not a Patriot only thing. Every team has new players and question marks. Sure the Patriots do, yet it's not like other teams don't. It's how you view Stidham and Bill. Last time Brady was going to not play he drafted an extra guy to backup Jimmy. Brisset has won a bunch of NFL games and is a decent QB. I trust Bill if he believes in Stidham, he had many other options. He has franchise QB upside. If you look at the first five games and see 0-5, then I don't know what to tell you. Dolphins, Raiders and Broncos, along with Seahawks and Chiefs. Congrats you are a true blue pats fan. You do a tremendous amount of research on the team and point out many things that I do not see. I already said 0-5 is a stretch. What I have read Bill and the team seem to get a lot out of joint practices It appears from different writers more than most teams and it is a key prep tool for the coming season. If, because of the virus, they do not allow joint practices what affect will this have? The team seems to have lots more question marks than in years past. So, for the first time in many, many years I question what kind of record they will have. Many times over the last 6 or 7 years when the pats start out slow the fans and the writers jump on, this is the end of the run. My response has been let's wait until the half way mark and see where they are. We have not been disappointed. This year lots of moving parts. Winning the division and making the playoffs seemed a for gone conclusion. Good chance to be in the SB definitely. This year despite your spirited endorsement of Stidham I do not see those things. I do applaud your enthusiasm and research. I am just not drinking the same brand of kool aid yet. So, based on what you have learned and read what is your projection / record for the pats this season? Do they win the division? Are they SB contenders? |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 12, 2020 10:05:58 GMT -5
I know, I literally said that in my last comment and mentioned most of the other aspects of local revenue. Your article mentions less of them than I did, but literally the second example is concession sales…how will those sales be without fans? I count zero dollars to be made without fans. How will the local corporate sponsorship opportunities be with empty stadiums compared to full stadiums? Most of the aspects of local revenue are directly tied to ticket sales and having fans in the stadium. Also, your local Pro Shop merchandise sales (which I believe aren't shared with the league like NFL.com sales are shared, but I could be wrong) will drop significantly without having fans at your stadium. Also, If preseason games are scrapped you lose the local TV revenue from those broadcasts, as preseason games are usually local broadcasts. You lose all the promotional opportunities that come with a full stadium which will hurt your local advertising revenue. Yes, ticket sales are only one part of the local revenues, but without any ticket sales other aspects of the local revenues are directly affected. You certainly can't just deduct ticket sales and think the other aspects of local revenue will be normal without fans, that doesn't make any sense. The only question is how much money the NFL will lose without fans, and if the cap effect will be minor or significant. Expecting some huge increase in national ad revenue from an increase in TV ratings to offset all these losses is delusional imo. Concession sales is 3-5 million a year. That article doesn't mention a lot of what you do because they are a small piece of the pie. They play eight home games in front of like 70,000 fans. The big money is paid because millions and millions watch on TV. Also not all local revenues count towards the players formula, corporate boxes aren't included for example. I'd argue patriot.com sells way more gear than the pro shop and it's not even close. Patriot place isn't part of the formula and frankly will do all right without games. They have the bass pro shop. Nevermind players only get 40% of local revenues, yet 55% of TV money and 50% of NFL ventures that's were the majority of their money comes from. Football isn't Baseball were 40% of the revenue comes from games because theirs 81 of them at your park. The NFL is the best pro sports league at making money, I'm sure they can find a few ways to make some more money. Preseason games in Western Mass are on CBS Why wouldn't that be part of the TV deal? |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 12, 2020 10:29:15 GMT -5
I think every team does joint practices, if not most do. That's not a Patriot only thing. Every team has new players and question marks. Sure the Patriots do, yet it's not like other teams don't. It's how you view Stidham and Bill. Last time Brady was going to not play he drafted an extra guy to backup Jimmy. Brisset has won a bunch of NFL games and is a decent QB. I trust Bill if he believes in Stidham, he had many other options. He has franchise QB upside. If you look at the first five games and see 0-5, then I don't know what to tell you. Dolphins, Raiders and Broncos, along with Seahawks and Chiefs. Congrats you are a true blue pats fan. You do a tremendous amount of research on the team and point out many things that I do not see. I already said 0-5 is a stretch. What I have read Bill and the team seem to get a lot out of joint practices It appears from different writers more than most teams and it is a key prep tool for the coming season. If, because of the virus, they do not allow joint practices what affect will this have? The team seems to have lots more question marks than in years past. So, for the first time in many, many years I question what kind of record they will have. Many times over the last 6 or 7 years when the pats start out slow the fans and the writers jump on, this is the end of the run. My response has been let's wait until the half way mark and see where they are. We have not been disappointed. This year lots of moving parts. Winning the division and making the playoffs seemed a for gone conclusion. Good chance to be in the SB definitely. This year despite your spirited endorsement of Stidham I do not see those things. I do applaud your enthusiasm and research. I am just not drinking the same brand of kool aid yet. So, based on what you have learned and read what is your projection / record for the pats this season? Do they win the division? Are they SB contenders? Go search joint practices between other teams. At one point it might have been true, not anymore. Everyone does it and with multiple teams. So that isn't a worry for me. Well you can have your opinion. For me I believe in Stidham. I believe he'll bond with the new weapons in a way Brady wouldn't. Stidham can do things Brady couldn't. I think we have very good depth at all but a few spots like NT and DL, yet it's basically the same group from last year. Go read some Stidham scouting reports. He got a whole year to learn the system and watch Brady. How go look at guys like Josh Allen of the Bills. He wasn't that good but got them 9 wins because of a running game and a good D. I actually expect Stidham to be better than Allen was last year. He wasn't close to as raw as he was coming out. It won't all be great, he'll have some bad moments yet look at the College coaches saying he'll be fine. He's got the make up you want. Biggest thing is he doesn't make a ton of mistakes. Like every team injuries matter, if they can stay relatively healthy I see 9-11 wins and the playoffs under an expanded format. I'm not going to talk about Championships, yet you never know it could be like an early 2000 run with a strong D, good running game and a solid QB. I'm more excited for this team than I have been in a long time. I just ordered a Stidham Jersey. I will trust Bill until proven otherwise. |
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Post by texs31 on May 12, 2020 14:41:35 GMT -5
With all UDFA signings accounted for (current assumption is that T Hill will not be signed now), FA signings officialy, and only Dugger left to sign among draft picks, the Pats have 630,880 in Cap Space.
As reported before, they can't get it done without creating cap space. It's a small number so they can either cut someone whose cap hit is currently in the Top 51 or just wait until they can get a bigger savings with one of the methods mentioned prior (there isn't a pressing deadline to sign Dugger so they can wait if they don't want to cut anyone right now).
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