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Mookie Betts traded as part of a three-team deal
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 6, 2020 8:47:49 GMT -5
As I understand it's structured that he's at $3.125M this year, with $1 million bonuses when he hits 15, 20, 25, 30, and 32 starts, and $250K bonuses at 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 190, 200 innings.
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Post by jbsox on Feb 6, 2020 8:53:57 GMT -5
Would it be so bad to cut the Twins out and take Maeda straight from the Dodgers instead, with a lower-tier prospect or pick to make up the difference? You don't get the system's next big pitching prospect that it seems Bloom was shooting for, but you do get a guy who can slide right into the rotation and might approximate what you would have gotten from Price at a fraction of the cost. I was just thinking the same thing. Ask for Maeda and a lottery ticket, then either flip him or trade Eduardo for a better prospect haul. I'd be pretty happy to keep Maeda - he's a good pitcher, and his low AAV might enable to them to take on someone else's bad contract to enhance a prospect package. I think Maeda makes to much money. Almost as much as they are sending with Price I think. His eight-year contract was for less guaranteed money total than Price's AAV. His incentives would basically max out at somewhere near $11.5M. Not bad idea keeping Maeda, and then flipping Erod for a better prospect package. Erod is going to get expensive in a couple years. Maybe go back to the Padres and see what you can do.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 6, 2020 9:04:05 GMT -5
I was just thinking the same thing. Ask for Maeda and a lottery ticket, then either flip him or trade Eduardo for a better prospect haul. I'd be pretty happy to keep Maeda - he's a good pitcher, and his low AAV might enable to them to take on someone else's bad contract to enhance a prospect package. His eight-year contract was for less guaranteed money total than Price's AAV. His incentives would basically max out at somewhere near $11.5M. Not bad idea keeping Maeda, and then flipping Erod for a better prospect package. Erod is going to get expensive in a couple years. Maybe go back to the Padres and see what you can do. Yeah, I feel like you could do something like Morejon, Quantrill, and either Margot or a couple lottery tickets. The White Sox could be interesting partners too. Or the Twins if that bridge isn't torched. I think part of my issue with the Betts return (other than the obvious that they traded Mookie Betts) was that it felt pretty high-risk. Graterol and Verdugo both have All-Star upside and could be part of the core for the next half-decade, but there are flags with both. Obviously there's risk in any prospect--and again, the rewards here are huge--but it made me a little uneasy.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,511
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Post by nomar on Feb 6, 2020 9:05:03 GMT -5
I don't know what they'll get in extra comp here if the Twins are still involved.
Would they even want Graterol at all if he seems like he has no chance at starting given his medicals and injury history?
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Post by dmaineah on Feb 6, 2020 9:05:57 GMT -5
As I understand it's structured that he's at $3.125M this year, with $1 million bonuses when he hits 15, 20, 25, 30, and 32 starts, and $250K bonuses at 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 190, 200 innings. So.. 25 starts, 150 innings = 8m + the approximate 16m to the Dodgers with Price = 24m, which in turn means a saving of approximately 8m, + Betts 27m = a total savings of approximately 35m, does that still get them under the cap? Did I even figure that out correctly?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 6, 2020 9:06:12 GMT -5
I'd prefer the Sox don't get Maeda. I think he's one of those guys whose numbers look ok in those big NL West ballparks. I think he'd get hammered pitching for the Sox.
I'd just as soon get prospects that have a potential ceiling.
It's not like the Red Sox just downgraded from Betts and Price to Verdugo and whoever and have a better shot than the 50-50 shot they previously had so getting Maeda just to try to stay semi-respectable doesn't make much sense to me.
I'd rather see them get a legit prospect instead, but I think they'll opt to keep Graterol as their future closer and take the Twins' comp balance pick.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Feb 6, 2020 9:15:29 GMT -5
I'd prefer the Sox don't get Maeda. I think he's one of those guys whose numbers look ok in those big NL West ballparks. I think he'd get hammered pitching for the Sox. I'd just as soon get prospects that have a potential ceiling. It's not like the Red Sox just downgraded from Betts and Price to Verdugo and whoever and have a better shot than the 50-50 shot they previously had so getting Maeda just to try to stay semi-respectable doesn't make much sense to me. I'd rather see them get a legit prospect instead, but I think they'll opt to keep Graterol as their future closer and take the Twins' comp balance pick.They'll either do that or have the Twins kick in some cash for Price. Maybe both since the goal here isn't to get prospects its to get more money. Honestly this is between Boston and Minnesota, the Sox aren't going to get anything else from LA. Friedman called the bluff and bent the Sox over hard. Any serious thought about May instead of Brusdar or even Downs sent in addition to Brusdar being sent to the Sox is laughable. And if this falls through and completely implodes then 29 other teams will know that the Sox are using their best player to get under the competitive balance tax. So instead of getting 75 cents on the dollar you'll get 30 to 40 cents since this deal will be used as the new baseline.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 6, 2020 9:15:31 GMT -5
I wonder if the Red Sox thought this would happened and argued with the teams involved. Like, "fine. We'll pay for half of Price if Brusdar passes; otherwise, you're taking 2/3 of his contract". Something along those lines. I feel like this was an expected outcome for negotiations.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Feb 6, 2020 9:19:31 GMT -5
I wonder if the Red Sox thought this would happened and argued with the teams involved. Like, "fine. We'll pay for half of Price if Brusdar passes; otherwise, you're taking 2/3 of his contract". Something along those lines. I feel like this was an expected outcome for negotiations. I doubt it. However, it's a probable outcome. One that given the now public knowledge of the failed physical and knowing that Brusdar failed his physical and won't start, will be heightened outrage at JWH. You just traded your franchise player to dump the majority of the David Price contract for a solid outfielder with 5 years of control and maybe a future closer. JWH should be killed in the media for this deal if it holds up as is. Or if the deal is altered to save JWH more money. Very Jeremy Jacobs/Harry Sinden pre salary cap like.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Feb 6, 2020 9:26:23 GMT -5
The fact that the trade was announced actually works in our favor. We could use it as leverage, hopefully Bloom has a decent poker face and can get a legit third piece included as part of the risk associated with accepting Graterol as part of the trade.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,020
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Post by mobaz on Feb 6, 2020 9:36:22 GMT -5
Another (minor) note in all this: what a weird contract Kenta Maeda signed! $3M a year for 8 years??? But then up to $10M a year in incentives? Annual roster bonus of $150,000 if he was on the 25-man opening-day active roster. $1 million each for 15 and 20 starts, and $1.5 million apiece for 25, 30 and 32 starts. $250,000 for 90 innings pitched and each additional 10 through 190, and $750,000 for 200. By my math that puts him at $9m, 5M, 3M and 5.4M the last four years in incentives. Still a bargain, but a weird one. Anyone see the Twins keeping him to 24 starts? Since I did the math yesterday, I'll quote myself as to where Maeda's contract ended up the last 4 years. $6M-$12M a year as a starter or swingman, with $12m guananteed over the next 4.
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Post by malynn19 on Feb 6, 2020 9:36:46 GMT -5
I wonder if the Red Sox thought this would happened and argued with the teams involved. Like, "fine. We'll pay for half of Price if Brusdar passes; otherwise, you're taking 2/3 of his contract". Something along those lines. I feel like this was an expected outcome for negotiations. I doubt it. However, it's a probable outcome. One that given the now public knowledge of the failed physical and knowing that Brusdar failed his physical and won't start, will be heightened outrage at JWH. You just traded your franchise player to dump the majority of the David Price contract for a solid outfielder with 5 years of control and maybe a future closer. JWH should be killed in the media for this deal if it holds up as is. Or if the deal is altered to save JWH more money. Very Jeremy Jacobs/Harry Sinden pre salary cap like. Yeah Henry wants more money saved, lol. The horse is dead dude, you have no actual fact to prove this. But I can tell you for a fact that Red Sox payroll has been the highest or near the top in the 17 years and four championships he has obtained as owner.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 6, 2020 9:36:51 GMT -5
I do want to point out that maybe in this case what they heard and what they now know could be two different things. Like, Bloom could have said, "sure, we'll take an high upside kid with some shoulder concerns" and then when they actually saw it say, "oh... nevermind". I still believe there was an agreement if he should fail beforehand and that it relates to what they're paying Price.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 6, 2020 9:41:14 GMT -5
Another aspect I've kind of ignored is that the Twins might really, truly want Maeda and will be willing to work with Boston on a package that gets it done. Everyone is talking about the Dodgers kicking in a guy, but the Twins are a contender who just thought they picked up a mid-rotation starter who they were willing to part with a top pitching prospect for. They might be motivated to make this happen.
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Post by Don Caballero on Feb 6, 2020 9:55:58 GMT -5
Ok now this feels like an abusive relationship. It's dragging out and they're toying with us. What, you think everyone will come to their senses, call this deal off and announce a Mookie extension? It could happen OR you could also pay less money for Price and get just party monster Verdugo.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Feb 6, 2020 9:57:52 GMT -5
I doubt it. However, it's a probable outcome. One that given the now public knowledge of the failed physical and knowing that Brusdar failed his physical and won't start, will be heightened outrage at JWH. You just traded your franchise player to dump the majority of the David Price contract for a solid outfielder with 5 years of control and maybe a future closer. JWH should be killed in the media for this deal if it holds up as is. Or if the deal is altered to save JWH more money. Very Jeremy Jacobs/Harry Sinden pre salary cap like. Yeah Henry wants more money saved, lol. The horse is dead dude, you have no actual fact to prove this. But I can tell you for a fact that Red Sox payroll has been the highest or near the top in the 17 years and four championships he has obtained as owner. Aside from Henry calling a press conference and saying that they need to save money and get under 208 of course...the proof is right there. If the Sox allow Betts to go for a reliever and an above average cost controlled regular what does that tell you? The motivation wasn't to maximize the return on Mookie. The motivation was to save as much money as possible by dumping Price to get under 208. This also isn't the first time in 17 years they've tried to do this either. The Sox for 5 years tried to do it with Manny. To the point where they were literally attempting to dump the contract. Henry overall has been a good owner but this directive and the probable insistence of getting under 208 by including Price absolutely killed any return for Betts.
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 6, 2020 10:13:17 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Feb 6, 2020 10:25:43 GMT -5
This is either really bad spin based on all the pushback on the deal that now has Sox saying they “didn’t know” Grateroll’s injury history or that is 95% more likely to be a reliever (um, Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference) or Bloom should be fired for not doing his homework/settling just to move Price now (with all that cash) instead of waiting til the All Star break/Trade deadline. The incompetence continues, either way.
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Post by malynn19 on Feb 6, 2020 10:31:52 GMT -5
Yeah Henry wants more money saved, lol. The horse is dead dude, you have no actual fact to prove this. But I can tell you for a fact that Red Sox payroll has been the highest or near the top in the 17 years and four championships he has obtained as owner. Aside from Henry calling a press conference and saying that they need to save money and get under 208 of course...the proof is right there. If the Sox allow Betts to go for a reliever and an above average cost controlled regular what does that tell you? The motivation wasn't to maximize the return on Mookie. The motivation was to save as much money as possible by dumping Price to get under 208. This also isn't the first time in 17 years they've tried to do this either. The Sox for 5 years tried to do it with Manny. To the point where they were literally attempting to dump the contract. Henry overall has been a good owner but this directive and the probable insistence of getting under 208 by including Price absolutely killed any return for eBetts. But you don't run a good franchise by just throwing money at it, look at the Yanks. We had to reset after every Championship, and Henry always said his goal was to win back to back, that's why DD gave Sale, X and Eovaldi those contracts, even though I am pretty sure it did not sit well with Henry. If Mookie was willing to meet 1/2 way, I am pretty sure he would be signed to an extension already.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 6, 2020 10:34:31 GMT -5
This is either really bad spin based on all the pushback on the deal that now has Sox saying they “didn’t know” Grateroll’s injury history or that is 95% more likely to be a reliever (um, Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference) or Bloom should be fired for not doing his homework/settling just to move Price now (with all that cash) instead of waiting til the All Star break/Trade deadline. The incompetence continues, either way. You know maybe this really is just a simple case of an elbow that doesn't look as good as the parent club said it did, but like... the fact that they got annihilated for this move and then all of a sudden weird hints start getting dropped from Red Sox connected people... I don't know what the hell is going on but this thing has been a mess from the start. Maybe next time, hire your GM before you show your hand to every other team in the league, guys.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 6, 2020 10:36:00 GMT -5
But you don't run a good franchise by just throwing money at it, look at the Yanks. I mean... don't make me say it, dude...
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Post by fenwaydouble on Feb 6, 2020 10:36:18 GMT -5
This is either really bad spin based on all the pushback on the deal that now has Sox saying they “didn’t know” Grateroll’s injury history or that is 95% more likely to be a reliever (um, Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference) or Bloom should be fired for not doing his homework/settling just to move Price now (with all that cash) instead of waiting til the All Star break/Trade deadline. The incompetence continues, either way. What homework was Bloom supposed to do exactly? The physical IS the homework.
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Post by manfred on Feb 6, 2020 10:43:22 GMT -5
This has been fun. Scandal, manager fired, goal of cutting money, trade your star, now try to fix even poorer return than it first seemed. Huzzah!
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Post by incandenza on Feb 6, 2020 10:45:08 GMT -5
I'd prefer the Sox don't get Maeda. I think he's one of those guys whose numbers look ok in those big NL West ballparks. I think he'd get hammered pitching for the Sox. I'd just as soon get prospects that have a potential ceiling. It's not like the Red Sox just downgraded from Betts and Price to Verdugo and whoever and have a better shot than the 50-50 shot they previously had so getting Maeda just to try to stay semi-respectable doesn't make much sense to me. I'd rather see them get a legit prospect instead, but I think they'll opt to keep Graterol as their future closer and take the Twins' comp balance pick.They'll either do that or have the Twins kick in some cash for Price. Maybe both since the goal here isn't to get prospects its to get more money. Honestly this is between Boston and Minnesota, the Sox aren't going to get anything else from LA. Friedman called the bluff and bent the Sox over hard. Any serious thought about May instead of Brusdar or even Downs sent in addition to Brusdar being sent to the Sox is laughable. And if this falls through and completely implodes then 29 other teams will know that the Sox are using their best player to get under the competitive balance tax. So instead of getting 75 cents on the dollar you'll get 30 to 40 cents since this deal will be used as the new baseline. Is it necessary to repeat this comment so many times? Yes, plenty of people are annoyed at the idea that we traded Mookie to get under the luxury tax. But there is zero evidence Henry is just trying to "save money" beyond that, and nothing in the history of how the team has spent money under Henry that suggests he's prioritizing going well below it. You're not reading the situation well and it's leading to bad analysis.
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Post by malynn19 on Feb 6, 2020 10:45:51 GMT -5
But you don't run a good franchise by just throwing money at it, look at the Yanks. I mean... don't make me say it, dude... Say what?
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