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Mookie Betts traded as part of a three-team deal
cdj
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Post by cdj on Feb 9, 2020 21:29:12 GMT -5
Let’s remember to not jump on the kids when they don’t hit in April in Portland lol
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orion09
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Post by orion09 on Feb 9, 2020 21:30:53 GMT -5
A few things to like and a few things not to like, IMO. Bad:1. Didn't get a SP prospect and we don't have anyone in our system who profiles as a top half of the rotation starter. I'm hoping we hold onto the 17th pick in this year's draft and CB is able to ID a college SP he likes. I trust his judgment. 2. I'm not thrilled about getting the 28th best prospect (Wong) in another organization's system. There's probably at least a 50-50 chance he'll never get more than a cup of coffee in The Show. But again, I trust CB. There's nothing in the reporting to indicate that other teams were clamoring to give up multiple top 10 guys for one year of Mookie. 3. The loss of Price is underrated. How do we stitch together 162 starts this year? I see 30 from E-Rod and then? There's nothing in Sale's history with the RS to indicate he'll make it to the finish line. Eo hasn't made 27 starts in five years. He's also not very good: career ERA-plus of 94 - though FIP and xFIP are a bit kinder to him. He has a 3.97 and 4.10 respectively, comppared to a career ERA of 4.30. 4. Verdugo's back. I also worry the press will crush the kid. It's not hard to see Shank going into all-out sanctimony mode and trying to wreck the kid's RS career. Good:1. Jetes sounds like a decent prospect who can slide into the 2B job in 2021. 2. Verdugo, if healthy, has upside as a LHH in Fenway and sounds like a guy who can handle RF, which is no small thing. A 114 OPS-plus and better-than-average defense is a decent player. Agreed with all of this except Downs taking over at 2B in 2021. If all goes well, his likely ETA would be end of 2021 or 2022.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 9, 2020 21:31:08 GMT -5
But feel free to pick another favorite team. At least I'm allowed to stream the games now.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 9, 2020 21:32:01 GMT -5
Mentioned this a couple times, but Betts' career OPS away from Fenway is .858 and Verdugo had a higher dWAR than Betts last year. It's not outside the realm of possibility that the Sox got the best player in this deal on top of everything else. I'd give it until May or June to see how everyone adapts to their new environments before grading this trade. lol no. That's literally the worst take in the history of this website. Look guy, the Sox have lost the best player they've developed in quite some time and I don't expect the Sox to develop a guy who is as good in every facet of the game as Mookie is. Honestly this day doesn't bother me though as much as the day that will come in November when Mookie announces he has re-signed with the Dodgers for $400 million. That day will bother me more because that means there's no chance we'll ever see Mookie in a Red Sox uniform again. That said, you have to be realistic. Did you love Mookie THAT much you'd rather watch them miss the playoffs and have him leave as a free agent and get next to nothing for him? Is that REALLY better? Unless of course you were expecting Mookie to lead the Sox to a World Series title. If you did, you weren't watching the same Red Sox team I was, complete with the same crappy pitching staff they had last year that they'll have this year minus David Price. With the Red Sox over the luxury tax there was no chance the Sox were going to sign Mookie for his money and pay additional penalties on top of that. Now with the Sox free of that, they're more likely to sign Betts in Nov, which to be honest, is still pretty damn unlikely. And if that's the case, then they weren't going to re-sign him anyways, so you might as well get some value for him rather than next to nothing. And if you do by some miracle sign him, then you given him JBJ's replacement in Verdugo who is a much better hitter than JBJ will ever be, plus a regular 2b down the road in Downs, plus even a catching option in Wong. Of course if you think Mookie was leading the Sox to a championship, then that's a small consolation to you. Be mad that they're not going to shell out the bucks to re-sign him, although you'd have to officially wait until next offseason to do that. Be mad that they backed themselves into this corner that they did this. But being mad at the trade itself is a waste of time. They forced themselves into this corner and getting something is better than getting nothing. They got something. That's as good as it was going to get at this point.
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Post by sarasoxer on Feb 9, 2020 21:36:31 GMT -5
Hey!
Many here were terribly down on trading 1 year of Mookie and less than 1/2 Price's remaining contract for Verdugo and Graterol...a twice wounded 20 year old bullpen piece.
Now we have Verdugo and SS Jeter Downs (whom many here pined for), a 3rd piece and 1/2 Price's contract. Happy day!
Think in reverse; If you were the Dodgers, was this a good deal? Did you get smoked?
This new deal is much more favorable to the Sox IMO. Rejoice, not forever complain.
The Sox did as well as they could.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 9, 2020 21:39:35 GMT -5
The Sox did as well as they could. Disagree, deeply and forever.
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Post by levi on Feb 9, 2020 21:45:23 GMT -5
I'm a fan of the deal, but also have a few concerns -- lots of variability in his rankings.
MLB.com: #44 overall (55FV) Prospects Live: #60 overall (50FV) Fangraphs: #89 (50FV) Baseball Prospectus: Outside top 100 prospects (#8 in LAD system)
It seems like he has a lot of average to above average tools but lacks an elite tool.
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Post by kevfc89 on Feb 9, 2020 21:45:48 GMT -5
Law loves the trade now...I thought he disliked it when it was just Verdugo and Graterol; he must be REALLY high on Downs.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 9, 2020 21:47:21 GMT -5
This isn't 1/100th as bad as losing 32 year old Carlton Fisk to the White Sox for nothing because of "forgotten paperwork" since he dared to ask for a tiny raise.
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Post by sarasoxer on Feb 9, 2020 21:55:22 GMT -5
The Sox did as well as they could. Disagree, deeply and forever. Well consider changing to a Dodger fan...?
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Post by bcpatsox18 on Feb 9, 2020 22:03:24 GMT -5
I really don’t hate the trade at all. I’m a little disappointed with getting Wong as the extra piece after hearing they wanted another top 10 prospect in addition to Graterol, but it’s offset by the fact after reading about Downs I’m liking him more and more. I think we needed pitching so seeing a Verdugo-Downs-Graterol package would’ve been ideal, it is semi-unrealistic. That being said, where would you guys rank Downs in our rankings now? I’d have him #2 behind casas, casas has the higher ceiling and has hit very well so he stays where he is, and I love Mata, but Downs seems to be closer to the majors with a very high floor. Thoughts?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 9, 2020 22:05:40 GMT -5
I can't give it an A because they didn't get a starter, but a very solid B+. Might be splitting hairs, but would Dodgers walk away over a Stripling or Ferguson?
Yet it makes sense, hard to top Verdugo and Downs. Wong isn't a bad third piece either.
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Post by lennsakata on Feb 9, 2020 22:10:13 GMT -5
It’s interesting that Wong and Downs both went off when they moved up from the typically advantageous Cal league to double a Tulsa. Downs numbers were good in high a but went to another level over an admittedly small sample size...but Wong really took off. Tulsa was below average in every park factor for the Texas League but Amarillo and Springfield also skew the numbers pretty hard. Wong’s average did improve every month of the season - .192, .236, .254, .278 and .412. His k rate was pretty consistent and his highest walk rates occurred in his worst (April) and best (Aug) months.’
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 9, 2020 22:12:18 GMT -5
Mentioned this a couple times, but Betts' career OPS away from Fenway is .858 and Verdugo had a higher dWAR than Betts last year. It's not outside the realm of possibility that the Sox got the best player in this deal on top of everything else. I'd give it until May or June to see how everyone adapts to their new environments before grading this trade. lol no. That's literally the worst take in the history of this website. I don't agree with it necessarily but it's a lot more reasoned than anything you've been saying over the course of this process.
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Post by manfred on Feb 9, 2020 22:12:47 GMT -5
Hey! Many here were terribly down on trading 1 year of Mookie and less than 1/2 Price's remaining contract for Verdugo and Graterol...a twice wounded 20 year old bullpen piece. Now we have Verdugo and SS Jeter Downs (whom many here pined for), a 3rd piece and 1/2 Price's contract. Happy day! Think in reverse; If you were the Dodgers, was this a good deal? Did you get smoked? This new deal is much more favorable to the Sox IMO. Rejoice, not forever complain. The Sox did as well as they could. If I am the Dodgers I added the second best player in baseball to the defending NL MVP and a team designed to win now. I feel friggin’ great. Not to mention possible upside of Price, which, personally I think is pretty awesome on half salary. That said, it is irrelevant. Trades ought not be judged by which side feels worse. Both teams should be happy. If the Dodgers don’t win the WS, I’m guessing they are bummed. If we, well... I don’t know. Have a 2B in 3 years?
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Post by lennsakata on Feb 9, 2020 22:22:32 GMT -5
It’s interesting that Wong and Downs both went off when they moved up from the typically advantageous Cal league to double a Tulsa. Downs numbers were good in high a but went to another level over an admittedly small sample size...but Wong really took off. Tulsa was below average in every park factor for the Texas League but Amarillo and Springfield also skew the numbers pretty hard. Wong’s average did improve every month of the season - .192, .236, .254, .278 and .412. His k rate was pretty consistent and his highest walk rates occurred in his worst (April) and best (Aug) months.’ Also Downs started the year as a 20 year old in high A and put up a .646 OPS in april over 99 plate appearances. His OPS in the months that followed went .828, .934, .858 and 1.153 in August Over 120 plate appearances. So his 1.116 OPS in double A over his final 56 appearances in August brought down his August OPS...another words he was trending all season and his high A numbers outside of April were pretty spectacular and the small double a sample seemed to be a continuation of that. Just like the sign of a young guy emerging
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Post by stevedillard on Feb 9, 2020 22:43:17 GMT -5
Too soon to point out that Jeter was drafted 8 spots after Dombrowski decided to draft Tanner Houck to change his mechanics?
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Post by baseballlifer34 on Feb 9, 2020 23:30:32 GMT -5
I guess Downs' floor was better than Graterol's ceiling. Hopefully the Sox didn't misjudge this one. Despite the irrational, this is what I'll remember about this trade. Not the fact that the Sox lost Betts and Price.
Graterol vs. Downs. Time will tell on that one in 2-3 years. Graterol's stuff can make any fan drool.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Feb 9, 2020 23:36:49 GMT -5
This is all good stuff on Downs I'll wait and see till he hit in a pitchers league and not the most hitter friendly league in all of MiLB over a fair period of time.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 9, 2020 23:36:51 GMT -5
Too soon to point out that Jeter was drafted 8 spots after Dombrowski decided to draft Tanner Houck to change his mechanics? I mean, of all the things to be frustrated with Dombrowski for right now, Tanner Houck is pretty low on the list. Anyway, this is better than the other trade. While I'd agree that the Red Sox need pitching, they didn't shoehorn themselves into needing to get pitching out of this deal specifically, instead getting better value. I may have mentioned this once or a thousand times, but Ben Cherington's determination that he had to get MLB-ready help specifically out of the Lester and Lackey trades boxed him into even more of a corner than he needed to. It is still a sad thing that they felt that they had to trade Mookie Betts. I'm going to be rooting for the Dodgers this year in a way that I don't know I've ever rooted for a non-Sox team.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Feb 9, 2020 23:46:39 GMT -5
Theory used to be when giving up a pitcher to try and get some kind of 1 back in return. Prospect of some type at the least and they bypassed all of LA's here for some reason here is my only issue with the deal even though total value coming back climbed.
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Post by ramireja on Feb 10, 2020 0:07:12 GMT -5
I won't post all, but there's a nice series of tweets worth checking out here:
Some interesting stuff on his hitting profile: elite contact rates, hits too many GB, but has nice FB/LD exit velocity. Normally I'd think there might be some untapped potential here if he could hit more FB than GB but LA is notorious for developing FB/LB heavy hitters w/ high K%...the opposite of Verdugo so I don't really know what to think. Definitely an interesting player....one who might be the best option to leadoff among the current lineup.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 10, 2020 0:36:49 GMT -5
Thanks for the link. That's a detailed breakdown of his skillset. The contact rate is a real eye-opener to go along with the outstanding % of swinging strikes. He knows how to hit.
The only thing that's missing is a measure of how thick his hide is. He's going to need it.
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Post by soxjim on Feb 10, 2020 1:00:42 GMT -5
Either I'm confused about what you're trying to say, or you're still wrong. Verdugo is under control through 2025. You are confused. Verdugo will start next year. Downs will be in AA. Year after: Verdugo will start. Downs will likely start in the minors. Maaaaybbbee he comes up and starts as that season progresses. But until then, the only player we get who is a factor for the Red Sox is Verdugo. Nothing about how long he is a factor. We traded our #2starter and starting right fielder, got back a lesser rf for the foreseeable future. In two years, maybe that is RF and 2B. But they freed up more money to spend next year, didn't they now that they also traded Price? So they might be able to sign Mookie for 2021 season and they would have gotten extra players, right? And if they don't sign Mookie for when he hits FA, they would have probably lost him anyways, right? And now they have Price's money anyways for 2021 as well, don't they? I'd like to know though why they felt they had little chance to get in the playoffs and if they are going to go hard for playoffs in 2021 or continue to gut the team.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 10, 2020 1:07:59 GMT -5
Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. Idiots shouldn't have traded Mookie Betts. Then tell us what the idiots should have done, please, and in great detail. For extra credit extend your plan three years out. You're not allowed to assume that Henry is a rebel owner who blows off the cap and tells the other owners to f**k off as he signs their draftees. This was a terrible choice, but the groundwork for the debacle was laid out even as the team won its most recent championship. Posters on this board knew it and said as much back then. Thus isn't 60s or 70s, thankfully, when players were chattles. And it isn't the 80s or 90s when the players discovered how much muscle they had when they stuck together - and the owners fought back tooth and nail. It isn't the 00s either when analytics started to take command. The baseball business model has radically changed and the MLBPA needs to get with the program - again. Artificially low thresholds tied to draft penalties for pre-arb talent, stuff the players signed off on, is a straight-jacket. Bloom did nothing but work to loosen the buckles on that thing.
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