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Mookie Betts traded as part of a three-team deal
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Post by Don Caballero on Feb 10, 2020 1:10:44 GMT -5
Goodbye Mookie. Sorry if my posts got repetitive and I always try to look at the bright side of things, but I just can't with this one. Mookie should have been a Red Sox for life. I wanted to spend the next 10 years watching him and Xander and wondering who I like the most (it's Xander though). I didn't want to go gently into that long night, but I've made peace with this one. Some kind of raging peace anyway. Losing Cora was sad, but losing Mookie takes away some of my passion for this franchise. Ultimately, I know they will win me back. Right now I just want to remember that bowling superstar that played the best RF I ever saw.
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Post by nonothing on Feb 10, 2020 1:24:27 GMT -5
Xander and Sale sold mgmt on wanting to stay, so they stayed. Mookie sold them that he wanted out, and he is out. It’s simple. The guys I will be cheering on In the spring are the guys who wanted to be here. No shame in that.
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Post by manfred on Feb 10, 2020 1:30:57 GMT -5
You are confused. Verdugo will start next year. Downs will be in AA. Year after: Verdugo will start. Downs will likely start in the minors. Maaaaybbbee he comes up and starts as that season progresses. But until then, the only player we get who is a factor for the Red Sox is Verdugo. Nothing about how long he is a factor. We traded our #2starter and starting right fielder, got back a lesser rf for the foreseeable future. In two years, maybe that is RF and 2B. But they freed up more money to spend next year, didn't they now that they also traded Price? So they might be able to sign Mookie for 2021 season and they would have gotten extra players, right? And if they don't sign Mookie for when he hits FA, they would have probably lost him anyways, right? And now they have Price's money anyways for 2021 as well, don't they? I'd like to know though why they felt they had little chance to get in the playoffs and if they are going to go hard for playoffs in 2021 or continue to gut the team. I think they should gut the team now. Let’s assume Verdugo and Downs are a major part of the next great Sox team. That is at least a year away. Likely more. So 2020 is shot (for many reasons), and 2021 depends on unpleasant variables.... sign a top guy, rebuild the staff, hope Sale is still strong, hope Eovaldi can last a full season etc. It seems to me that things are more likely to come together around 2022. By that time, Sale, Eovaldi, JBJ, JDM are no longer big parts of the equation. So why not sell now? Free up more to sign back Betts, and maybe someone else in ‘21 or ‘22. Can sign Devers. And maybe get back key pieces for 2022.
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Post by nonothing on Feb 10, 2020 2:11:06 GMT -5
Betts’ contract will be an albatross. I would be very frustrated if they spend $400MM on him. Stanton hit 50+ HRs in a park where nobody could hit them, won MVP, got a monster contract, and now... are the Yankees happy with that deal? In 5 yrs when Mookie isn’t as fast, and there are another 7 or 8 yrs left on his deal, would you want that? No thanks. Welcome to Boston Alex, Jeter and Connor.
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Post by baseballlifer34 on Feb 10, 2020 4:08:36 GMT -5
But they freed up more money to spend next year, didn't they now that they also traded Price? So they might be able to sign Mookie for 2021 season and they would have gotten extra players, right? And if they don't sign Mookie for when he hits FA, they would have probably lost him anyways, right? And now they have Price's money anyways for 2021 as well, don't they? I'd like to know though why they felt they had little chance to get in the playoffs and if they are going to go hard for playoffs in 2021 or continue to gut the team. I think they should gut the team now. Let’s assume Verdugo and Downs are a major part of the next great Sox team. That is at least a year away. Likely more. So 2020 is shot (for many reasons), and 2021 depends on unpleasant variables.... sign a top guy, rebuild the staff, hope Sale is still strong, hope Eovaldi can last a full season etc. It seems to me that things are more likely to come together around 2022. By that time, Sale, Eovaldi, JBJ, JDM are no longer big parts of the equation. So why not sell now? Free up more to sign back Betts, and maybe someone else in ‘21 or ‘22. Can sign Devers. And maybe get back key pieces for 2022. JBJ and JDM might fetch something. Barnes and Workman should get a little more based on the history of trading relievers recently. Contending teams always need them. You're probably stuck with Eovaldi and Sale for a while unless the Sox are into selling 50 cents on the dollar (like they did with Price). At best, you can hope Eovaldi performs enough through the All-Star break and gets enough value to get one good prospect back. The only guy worth seeing value and worth trading (other than Barnes and Workman) is Eduardo Rodriguez. Has 2 years of control left, should still require a nice prospect package to get. Vazquez is another guy worth shopping, but there are better catchers who are cheaper at the moment (mainly Salvador Perez and Wilson Contreras). This team has a lot of work to do and needs to just start hoarding prospects all over again. Go get Myers and prospects and start there.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 10, 2020 4:12:42 GMT -5
Manfred, I am sad and angry that Mookie is gone, and we will miss Price as he transitions to being an older SP. I will also miss The Brockstar deeply. But I am very happy that $40M has been cleared off the books along with about $30M in financial penalties and draft pool; and especially holding on to top draft picks. BTW I found some notes from several years ago quoting discussions on various sites about the need to reset in 2020. It was going to happen. The shame is that Mookie got caught up in this cul de sac, but this is partly his choice to refuse an extension and then require a 12 year deal at $35M. Some say he owes the Sox nothing and should demand his worth. Maybe. But the Sox drafted him and developed his talents, kept him from giving up, paid him very well, and can take some credit for being the wind beneath wings during his rise to greatness. The loving fans and media were also beneath his wings. And it is fellow players, like Holt and Shaw and Cishek who could not get paid because of the high cost of keeping Mookie and Price and Sale and JD and Eovaldi. It’s messed up. Mookie is NOT to blame for a messed up system. He is as much a victim of it as we are, and the Sox are, and his team mates are. It really is what it is for now. We take a step backwards without Mookie and David (and Holt). But this team is still a threat. The Farm is considerably stronger with Jeter 2.0 and Wong. The bullpen is very deep and the Shredder ranks Workman as baseball’s 7th best closer. Who knows what RP’s like Darwinzon, Taylor, Brice, Feltman, Brasier will offer. Verdugo, a very good, young, 5-tool right fielder, along with still emerging Beni, Bogaerts, Devers, Chavis, Dalbec, Vasquez, JDM will all be worth watching in 2020. The big ?? again, with or without Mookie, is the Rotation. I am betting that Sale, ERod and Eovaldi are ready to compete. Nor will it be a surprise if Bloom signs another starter at some point. [ In sum, IMO the last thing the Sox should do is blow up this wonderful team. See how iit goes and where it goes. ST in two days. Awesome.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Feb 10, 2020 4:35:32 GMT -5
I won't post all, but there's a nice series of tweets worth checking out here: Some interesting stuff on his hitting profile: elite contact rates, hits too many GB, but has nice FB/LD exit velocity. Normally I'd think there might be some untapped potential here if he could hit more FB than GB but LA is notorious for developing FB/LB heavy hitters w/ high K%...the opposite of Verdugo so I don't really know what to think. Definitely an interesting player....one who might be the best option to leadoff among the current lineup. Appreciate the link. It was a good find. IMO, I think that Verdugo will exceed a lot of our expectations. Mainly due to what you said...he has elite contact abilities and posts good exit velocity. Obviously, those alone don't guarantee anything, but he just looks like a taylor made Fenway player. Hard hit line drives are glorious in a park like ours haha. As far as him hitting leadoff I absolutely agree. I would guess he is the top option for lots of reasons. I think Peraza hits 9th so Verdugo seems logical. A less discussed plus for Verdugo is his ability to hit LHP as a lefty himself. He seems to be way above average in that regard, which will be an advantage in leadoff. Random comment that I found interesting. I don't recall where I saw it though... A scouting report stated that his contact abilities are so good that it almost hurts him. They probably were mentioning that paired with walk rates, but I'll have to confirm. He definitely has all the ingredients to excel here as long as he can take the pressure.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Feb 10, 2020 6:55:13 GMT -5
We cool now ? hope to some day figure out why our homegrown stars dont seem to stay like the MFY , but i guess we may never be able to figure that out
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Feb 10, 2020 6:57:46 GMT -5
gonna miss ya, Mookie Betts !!!!
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Post by bnich on Feb 10, 2020 7:14:39 GMT -5
I like the restructured trade. Hard to argue with what they got back in return. Now Bloom needs to find some more pitching and FAST!
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Feb 10, 2020 7:36:45 GMT -5
I can't give it an A because they didn't get a starter, but a very solid B+. Might be splitting hairs, but would Dodgers walk away over a Stripling or Ferguson? Yet it makes sense, hard to top Verdugo and Downs. Wong isn't a bad third piece either. Taking everything into account, I'me quite pleased. Watching those videos on Downs...he could be a special player for us in a couple of years!
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Post by awall on Feb 10, 2020 7:49:46 GMT -5
I like this deal even more than the previous one, given the long-term health concerns with Graterol. This package may have a bit lower ceiling, but seems to have a higher chance of producing solid MLB contributors under team control for many years.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 10, 2020 7:54:16 GMT -5
It isn't the 00s either when analytics started to take command. The baseball business model has radically changed and the MLBPA needs to get with the program - again. Artificially low thresholds tied to draft penalties for pre-arb talent, stuff the players signed off on, is a straight-jacket. Bloom did nothing but work to loosen the buckles on that thing. I feel like every explanation of why I should like this trade basically boils down to "see, Bloom isn't a bad GM, the trade is actually just an indictment of baseball's entire way of doing business". Oh ok cool, I like it now. I like the restructured trade. Hard to argue with what they got back in return. Now Bloom needs to find some more pitching and FAST!Or like, in a couple years. Whatever. Resetting the luxury tax was urgent. Having anything close to a complete starting rotation is an afterthought for one of the richest teams in baseball.
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Post by sarasoxer on Feb 10, 2020 8:36:36 GMT -5
It will be interesting where the Sox go from here. Are they done with the re-tool? Did they just want to get some flexibility and give the farm a bit of a boost while remaining competitive, or will there be a continuing purge in a jettison of older players in a full re-stock? If the latter, JDM and Sale are obvious targets should they prove healthy and perform.
I have a gut feeling that there is more to come with a new sheriff.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 10, 2020 9:13:37 GMT -5
We cool now ? hope to some day figure out why our homegrown stars dont seem to stay like the MFY , but i guess we may never be able to figure that out Like Robinson Cano or Xander Bogaerts?
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Feb 10, 2020 9:19:13 GMT -5
Not quite sure how Chaim pulled all of this off but it is pretty impressive that the deal changed from a potential closer to a potential 10 yr regular middle infielder and depth in a position of weakness. Still got a top 100 guy and added on another piece. Looking forward to a no so distant future with Cassas, Downs, Zander and Devers as the infield is exciting. Dalbec will get his shot this year to change that formula and/or enhance his value as a trade chip.
Now the challenge is to re work the pitching staff in to one that is championship caliber. There is much to do to accomplish this but with some wiggle room now in the salary for 2020 I hope to see a move made to begin that re shaping (only Sale, Eduardo and Hernandez are sure keepers for the next great staff in my mind) prior to opening day. The upcoming group of Mata, Houk, Groome and Ward should be handled with care to insure that a couple of them become pieces of the starting rotation along with an acquired talent.
Now, really ought to get the manager thing worked out, Don't ya think, Chaim !
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 10, 2020 9:19:30 GMT -5
Betts’ contract will be an albatross. I would be very frustrated if they spend $400MM on him. Stanton hit 50+ HRs in a park where nobody could hit them, won MVP, got a monster contract, and now... are the Yankees happy with that deal? In 5 yrs when Mookie isn’t as fast, and there are another 7 or 8 yrs left on his deal, would you want that? No thanks. Welcome to Boston Alex, Jeter and Connor. I'm not going to lie. I thought Stanton was going to break the game of baseball in that ballpark. Still, he was a big strikeout guy who had an injury history before the trade. There were some red flags. What's Mookie's? That he can't hit home runs to right field? I'm still rooting for the great irony of Verdugo having a more productive year than Betts (either through performance, health or some combination of the two). I doubt it, but it would be hysterical if that were to happen.
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Post by stevedillard on Feb 10, 2020 9:25:47 GMT -5
Still, he was a big strikeout guy who had an injury history before the trade. There were some red flags. What's Mookie's? That he can't hit home runs to right field? Career OPS away from Fenway is .858, is average is .285, and with value created by speed and defense, just look at Carl Crawford as to what happens to value if those slip at age 31 -33. www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=bettsmo01&year=Career&t=b#hmvis::none
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Post by incandenza on Feb 10, 2020 9:27:50 GMT -5
But they freed up more money to spend next year, didn't they now that they also traded Price? So they might be able to sign Mookie for 2021 season and they would have gotten extra players, right? And if they don't sign Mookie for when he hits FA, they would have probably lost him anyways, right? And now they have Price's money anyways for 2021 as well, don't they? I'd like to know though why they felt they had little chance to get in the playoffs and if they are going to go hard for playoffs in 2021 or continue to gut the team. I think they should gut the team now. Let’s assume Verdugo and Downs are a major part of the next great Sox team. That is at least a year away. Likely more. So 2020 is shot (for many reasons), and 2021 depends on unpleasant variables.... sign a top guy, rebuild the staff, hope Sale is still strong, hope Eovaldi can last a full season etc. It seems to me that things are more likely to come together around 2022. By that time, Sale, Eovaldi, JBJ, JDM are no longer big parts of the equation. So why not sell now? Free up more to sign back Betts, and maybe someone else in ‘21 or ‘22. Can sign Devers. And maybe get back key pieces for 2022. All right, I'm gonna be the first one to say all hope is not lost for 2020. This is still quite a good offense, and there are a few positions (LF, 2B, 1B) where they could actually be better than 2019, when they had the 4th best offense in the league. In fact fangraphs projects them to score the 3rd most runs in the AL after the Astros and Twins, and to give up the 5th fewest runs after the Rays, Yankees, Astros, and Indians. Honestly, that pitching ranking surprised me, but look through the league - other than those four you can't really find a staff that looks clearly better than the Sox'. Of course a lot depends on the health of the starters, but you could say the same of any team. Anyway, this looks like a team that should have about as much hope as anyone at competing for a wild card at least.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 10, 2020 9:32:11 GMT -5
Mookie Betts has a .374 career OBP through age 26, Carl Crawford had a .330. If Betts is really a .858 OPS player (and everyone's numbers slide on the road), that is better than any individual season of Crawford's career.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 10, 2020 9:33:13 GMT -5
It will be interesting where the Sox go from here. Are they done with the re-tool? Did they just want to get some flexibility and give the farm a bit of a boost while remaining competitive, or will there be a continuing purge in a jettison of older players in a full re-stock? If the latter, JDM and Sale are obvious targets should they prove healthy and perform. I have a gut feeling that there is more to come with a new sheriff. The challenge will be coming up with pitching. Looking into the future, it's questionable over the next 4 seasons how much they get out of Sale and Eovaldi (for the next 3 seasons). So then the question is what help are they getting out of the farm system? I mean a lot of the starters in the minors carry the "might be better suited for the bullpen" labels. I don't know that Mata or Ward or Houck will be starters and if so they're probably back-end guys. I'm obviously hoping that both exceed that. Groome looms large here. He has the pedigree to be a mid-rotation guy if not better, but so far there has been only injuries, and no results. This is a huge year for him. Perales is exciting but he's many years away, if he ever gets there. So the farm system is pretty devoid of pitching talent. Even the pen has some questions as it's debatable that there are any future closers in the system. Feltman was supposed to be that guy. Graterol certainly would have taken care of that problem, but yeah, you do have to prioritize: a solid multi-talented 2b > dominant closer on a rebuilding team.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 10, 2020 9:33:21 GMT -5
I feel like that's very cherry picking-ish. Players tend to do worse on the road and his .858 OPS is still good. His defense isn't just tied to his speed either and he's not a big SB guy, the way Crawford or Ellsbury were. (Tried to use Mike Trout as an example, but saw his career OPS at home vs away and both are exactly 1.000. Guy's a beast).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 10, 2020 9:38:20 GMT -5
Betts’ contract will be an albatross. I would be very frustrated if they spend $400MM on him. Stanton hit 50+ HRs in a park where nobody could hit them, won MVP, got a monster contract, and now... are the Yankees happy with that deal? In 5 yrs when Mookie isn’t as fast, and there are another 7 or 8 yrs left on his deal, would you want that? No thanks. Welcome to Boston Alex, Jeter and Connor. I certainly won't say you're wrong. You ultimately will be proven right I believe, but the thing with Betts is that he's not 31 signing a 10 year deal like Pujols or Cano. He'll be 28 during the first year of his new contract. He should have at least five good to great years in him. Plus, Mookie is not a one trick pony. He excels in every facet of the game. He has enough broad skills that even if one tool diminishes, I don't think the others will leave as quickly. Will that be worth $35 million/year in the back half of his deal? Probably not, although with inflation I'm sure the $40 million to $50 million barrier will start to get knocked on at some point so that the $35 million/year perhaps won't be much more than a #3 starter by time his contract is done. That said, I certainly understand the desire to not pay the back half of his deal, but sometimes guys do stay good for a long time. Yaz didn't drop off a cliff at 34. Ted Williams kept flirting with .400. David Ortiz still terrified pitchers at his advanced age. Dwight Evans aged like fine wine as did Pudge Fisk....but yes, for every one of those guys you could give me a thousand Jim Rices. I just think of all the guys, with all of his skills, Mookie Betts is the one guy you gamble on.
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Post by manfred on Feb 10, 2020 9:41:26 GMT -5
I think they should gut the team now. Let’s assume Verdugo and Downs are a major part of the next great Sox team. That is at least a year away. Likely more. So 2020 is shot (for many reasons), and 2021 depends on unpleasant variables.... sign a top guy, rebuild the staff, hope Sale is still strong, hope Eovaldi can last a full season etc. It seems to me that things are more likely to come together around 2022. By that time, Sale, Eovaldi, JBJ, JDM are no longer big parts of the equation. So why not sell now? Free up more to sign back Betts, and maybe someone else in ‘21 or ‘22. Can sign Devers. And maybe get back key pieces for 2022. All right, I'm gonna be the first one to say all hope is not lost for 2020. This is still quite a good offense, and there are a few positions (LF, 2B, 1B) where they could actually be better than 2019, when they had the 4th best offense in the league. In fact fangraphs projects them to score the 3rd most runs in the AL after the Astros and Twins, and to give up the 5th fewest runs after the Rays, Yankees, Astros, and Indians. Honestly, that pitching ranking surprised me, but look through the league - other than those four you can't really find a staff that looks clearly better than the Sox'. Of course a lot depends on the health of the starters, but you could say the same of any team. Anyway, this looks like a team that should have about as much hope as anyone at competing for a wild card at least. Why will 1B or 2B be better? I agree Beni should be better. If not, it is time to reconsider what he is. They are obviously fat worse in RF. JDM is one year older and carries even more power burden. X and Devers have to repeat sick years (as does CVaz). That is all actually not so bad... but you pretty much have 3 legit starters on paper, two of whom were hurt most of last year and one who had his only fully healthy season ever. And a bullpen that is hardly inspiring. I loved Workman last year, but I am worried he had a miracle season. (Last year his BABIP was .209! Steamer has him coming back to Earth). In short, this is a worse team than last year, with worse intangibles (traded best player, fired manager, unhappy fan base).... I am certainly betting against WC contention.
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Post by stevedillard on Feb 10, 2020 9:47:27 GMT -5
Mookie Betts has a .374 career OBP through age 26, Carl Crawford had a .330. If Betts is really a .858 OPS player (and everyone's numbers slide on the road), that is better than any individual season of Crawford's career. I am not comparing their production, as obviously Mookie has greater power. But my point is that where much value comes from defense and baserunning, it stops at some point, and for Crawford, it stopped at age 29. Obviously the drop for Crawford was from a lower baseline, but in terms of "flags" that is one I would look at. As to the home/road splits, I don't know what the average split is (for example, just quick look and Altuve was even, Bregman is far better on the road), but the fact that Fenway is unique makes that question far more stark. Look, I understand Mookie is a great player, but I would not give him $35 mil for 8 or 9 years, just from 1) an asset allocation perspective, and 2) the back end dead money issue. edit: Yelich splits almost identical, .003 higher on road. Harper .030 higher at home, Rendon .015 higher at home. Judge- .260 higher at home Stanton .055 higher at home. Goldschmit wihtin .009
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