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Mookie Betts traded as part of a three-team deal
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Post by fenwaydouble on Feb 10, 2020 9:49:19 GMT -5
All right, I'm gonna be the first one to say all hope is not lost for 2020. This is still quite a good offense, and there are a few positions (LF, 2B, 1B) where they could actually be better than 2019, when they had the 4th best offense in the league. In fact fangraphs projects them to score the 3rd most runs in the AL after the Astros and Twins, and to give up the 5th fewest runs after the Rays, Yankees, Astros, and Indians. Honestly, that pitching ranking surprised me, but look through the league - other than those four you can't really find a staff that looks clearly better than the Sox'. Of course a lot depends on the health of the starters, but you could say the same of any team. Anyway, this looks like a team that should have about as much hope as anyone at competing for a wild card at least. Why will 1B or 2B be better? I agree Beni should be better. If not, it is time to reconsider what he is. They are obviously fat worse in RF. JDM is one year older and carries even more power burden. X and Devers have to repeat sick years (as does CVaz). That is all actually not so bad... but you pretty much have 3 legit starters on paper, two of whom were hurt most of last year and one who had his only fully healthy season ever. And a bullpen that is hardly inspiring. I loved Workman last year, but I am worried he had a miracle season. In short, this is a worse team than last year, with worse intangibles (traded best player, fired manager, unhappy fan base).... I am certainly betting against WC contention. They're definitely worse on paper than last year, but so many things went wrong last year that they could easily have a better record in 2020 if the luck swings in the other direction. It's kind of like how the Yankees are better on paper this year, but they were really lucky in a lot of ways last year, so I wouldn't bank on them actually having a better record.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 10, 2020 9:52:02 GMT -5
Betts’ contract will be an albatross. I would be very frustrated if they spend $400MM on him. Stanton hit 50+ HRs in a park where nobody could hit them, won MVP, got a monster contract, and now... are the Yankees happy with that deal? In 5 yrs when Mookie isn’t as fast, and there are another 7 or 8 yrs left on his deal, would you want that? No thanks. Welcome to Boston Alex, Jeter and Connor. I'm not going to lie. I thought Stanton was going to break the game of baseball in that ballpark. Still, he was a big strikeout guy who had an injury history before the trade. There were some red flags. What's Mookie's? That he can't hit home runs to right field? I'm still rooting for the great irony of Verdugo having a more productive year than Betts (either through performance, health or some combination of the two). I doubt it, but it would be hysterical if that were to happen. I am... definitely not rooting for Mookie to get injured. Still, he was a big strikeout guy who had an injury history before the trade. There were some red flags. What's Mookie's? That he can't hit home runs to right field? Career OPS away from Fenway is .858, is average is .285, and with value created by speed and defense, just look at Carl Crawford as to what happens to value if those slip at age 31 -33. People keep citing this, but it completely discounts homefield advantage, and even if you do this - George Brett had a career OPS of .856. It's not like that's bad. As for Carl Crawford, he created value primarily through speed and defense; he was never nearly the offensive force Betts is. That's the thing - Betts could decline in one area of the game but there's a good chance he'll at least be pretty good for a while because the other parts of his game could pick him up.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 10, 2020 9:59:15 GMT -5
I feel like that's very cherry picking-ish. Players tend to do worse on the road and his .858 OPS is still good. His defense isn't just tied to his speed either and he's not a big SB guy, the way Crawford or Ellsbury were. (Tried to use Mike Trout as an example, but saw his career OPS at home vs away and both are exactly 1.000. Guy's a beast). "In the friendly confines of Fenway Park, long known to favor hitters, [Fred] Lynn had a slash of .308/.383/.520, averaging 24 home runs and 102 RBIs per 162 games. His 141 OPS+" [me: In his best year of 1979, he had an OPS of 1.267 at home and .831 away. I don't know where to get cumulative splits for those years] "Through his years in Anaheim, followed by stops in Baltimore, Detroit and San Diego, Lynn had a slash of .263/.343/.456. Some of his problems were health-related, with Lynn averaging just 114 games a season from 1981 through his final season, 1990." [me: Mookie's .930/.858. is not as extreme] www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/fred-lynn-stats-hall-of-fame-case-boston-red-sox-california-angels/1is6pnpmu1did1argngibattgo
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 10, 2020 10:02:51 GMT -5
I'm not going to lie. I thought Stanton was going to break the game of baseball in that ballpark. Still, he was a big strikeout guy who had an injury history before the trade. There were some red flags. What's Mookie's? That he can't hit home runs to right field? I'm still rooting for the great irony of Verdugo having a more productive year than Betts (either through performance, health or some combination of the two). I doubt it, but it would be hysterical if that were to happen. I am... definitely not rooting for Mookie to get injured. Career OPS away from Fenway is .858, is average is .285, and with value created by speed and defense, just look at Carl Crawford as to what happens to value if those slip at age 31 -33. People keep citing this, but it completely discounts homefield advantage, and even if you do this - George Brett had a career OPS of .856. It's not like that's bad. As for Carl Crawford, he created value primarily through speed and defense; he was never nearly the offensive force Betts is. That's the thing - Betts could decline in one area of the game but there's a good chance he'll at least be pretty good for a while because the other parts of his game could pick him up. I'm not rooting for him to get injured. I'm just rooting for whatever metric that makes Verdugo a more valuable commodity in 2020, though I understand that Betts will have the better career moving forward, but just in this 1-year sample would be comical to see after all the bemoaning of this deal. This is why trading for 1 year of a player is very risky.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Feb 10, 2020 10:03:19 GMT -5
Guys Mookie is going to be a great player for the dodgers, it’s Mookie. We watched him ascend through the system and become mvp of one of the greatest teams of all time. He’s entering his prime in a contract year with virtually no injury history. He may not pop 30 homers but he’s not gonna be merely good just because of a switch in ballparks. He will be his elite self, probably will get 7-8 WAR with the possibility for more
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Post by humanbeingbean on Feb 10, 2020 10:03:58 GMT -5
Looking over Downs's (albeit short) stats history, you can squint and see a similar profile to Ian Kinsler with less power, maybe, as his ceiling. I'm fairly confident in Verdugo's ability to immediately be a 3-4 WAR player (or more, if he stays healthy), so I'm just going to keep myself content by dreaming on both Downs and Verdugo being impact players by 2022.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 10, 2020 10:05:04 GMT -5
All right, I'm gonna be the first one to say all hope is not lost for 2020. This is still quite a good offense, and there are a few positions (LF, 2B, 1B) where they could actually be better than 2019, when they had the 4th best offense in the league. In fact fangraphs projects them to score the 3rd most runs in the AL after the Astros and Twins, and to give up the 5th fewest runs after the Rays, Yankees, Astros, and Indians. Honestly, that pitching ranking surprised me, but look through the league - other than those four you can't really find a staff that looks clearly better than the Sox'. Of course a lot depends on the health of the starters, but you could say the same of any team. Anyway, this looks like a team that should have about as much hope as anyone at competing for a wild card at least. Why will 1B or 2B be better? I agree Beni should be better. If not, it is time to reconsider what he is. They are obviously fat worse in RF. JDM is one year older and carries even more power burden. X and Devers have to repeat sick years (as does CVaz). That is all actually not so bad... but you pretty much have 3 legit starters on paper, two of whom were hurt most of last year and one who had his only fully healthy season ever. And a bullpen that is hardly inspiring. I loved Workman last year, but I am worried he had a miracle season. (Last year his BABIP was .209! Steamer has him coming back to Earth). In short, this is a worse team than last year, with worse intangibles (traded best player, fired manager, unhappy fan base).... I am certainly betting against WC contention. Well, they got -0.4 fWAR out of 1B in 2019 and 0.0 WAR out of 2B. Those are pretty low bars to clear, no? (Remember, Pearce, Travis and Nunez - oh sweet god, Nunez - were teeeeerrible last season, and Moreland was injured for much of it, and Bloom has made some improvements to this part of the roster.)
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 10, 2020 10:05:14 GMT -5
Fred Lynn hit .278/.360/.484 from ages 30 to 34 and averaged 3.0 bWAR per season despite averaging only 122 games per year. This idea that he turned into some bum and is a cautionary tale against anyone ever leaving the Red Sox is off the mark. His aging curve was normal production-wise, but with more injuries than you'd expect limiting his overall value.
Betts is also better than Lynn was.
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Post by manfred on Feb 10, 2020 10:08:42 GMT -5
Why will 1B or 2B be better? I agree Beni should be better. If not, it is time to reconsider what he is. They are obviously fat worse in RF. JDM is one year older and carries even more power burden. X and Devers have to repeat sick years (as does CVaz). That is all actually not so bad... but you pretty much have 3 legit starters on paper, two of whom were hurt most of last year and one who had his only fully healthy season ever. And a bullpen that is hardly inspiring. I loved Workman last year, but I am worried he had a miracle season. (Last year his BABIP was .209! Steamer has him coming back to Earth). In short, this is a worse team than last year, with worse intangibles (traded best player, fired manager, unhappy fan base).... I am certainly betting against WC contention. Well, they got -0.4 fWAR out of 1B in 2019 and 0.0 WAR out of 2B. Those are pretty low bars to clear, no? (Remember, Pearce, Travis and Nunez - oh sweet god, Nunez - were teeeeerrible last season, and Moreland was injured for much of it, and Bloom has made some improvements to this part of the roster.) Well, they replaced that 0.0 WAR At 2B with a -0.9 in Peraza. And they replaced Moreland with.... Moreland.
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Post by stevedillard on Feb 10, 2020 10:09:24 GMT -5
Nobody is claiming Betts is, or will become a "bum." We are measuring him by his insistence of being the top paid player in MLB history, to nearly age 40. Even if his request is merely to set the market, and he'll settle for being one of the tope 5 paid players ever, we have to measure his worth by that standard.
With a cap, allocating $38 mil of the $200 million budget to one guy for the next 10 years is not something I want to do.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 10, 2020 10:16:34 GMT -5
Well, they got -0.4 fWAR out of 1B in 2019 and 0.0 WAR out of 2B. Those are pretty low bars to clear, no? (Remember, Pearce, Travis and Nunez - oh sweet god, Nunez - were teeeeerrible last season, and Moreland was injured for much of it, and Bloom has made some improvements to this part of the roster.) Well, they replaced that 0.0 WAR At 2B with a -0.9 in Peraza. And they replaced Moreland with.... Moreland. Peraza is unlikely to be that bad again. Maybe he'll have a 2+ WAR season like he did in 2016. I'll say it again: Eduardo. Nunez. And Moreland is Moreland, but perhaps he'll be healthier, or perhaps Chavis or Dalbec will emerge, and at least Travis won't be tossing his negative value into the ring. At any rate, fangraphs projects them for 1.0 WAR at 1B and 1.3 WAR at 2B - that's +2.7 from 2019 and, incidentally, would wipe out about 80% of the loss from replacing Betts with Verdugo.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Feb 10, 2020 10:21:11 GMT -5
We cool now ? hope to some day figure out why our homegrown stars dont seem to stay like the MFY , but i guess we may never be able to figure that out Like Robinson Cano or Xander Bogaerts? Sure, there are exceptions. I think the MFY have had a better history of keeping their talent in house. The late 90's core had 4 or 5 guys alone.
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Post by manfred on Feb 10, 2020 10:24:20 GMT -5
Well, they replaced that 0.0 WAR At 2B with a -0.9 in Peraza. And they replaced Moreland with.... Moreland. Peraza is unlikely to be that bad again. Maybe he'll have a 2+ WAR season like he did in 2016. I'll say it again: Eduardo. Nunez. And Moreland is Moreland, but perhaps he'll be healthier, or perhaps Chavis or Dalbec will emerge, and at least Travis won't be tossing his negative value into the ring. At any rate, fangraphs projects them for 1.0 WAR at 1B and 1.3 WAR at 2B - that's +2.7 from 2019 and, incidentally, would wipe out about 80% of the loss from replacing Betts with Verdugo. Or Peraza might be the -0.8 he was in 2017 or the -0.9 he was in 2019. With not great defense. Bottom line is: Sox were bad on the right side last year, and even granting your point that much the same crew has to be better, they are still bad. And writ large, a team that was not especially good last year (for some one-off reasons, granted) is worse this year. And for every guy like, say, Beni, who almost has to be better, there are guys like Workman who almost has to be worse.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Feb 10, 2020 10:30:50 GMT -5
This team might surprise people. I'd call up a few teams to see if they would give a good young cost-controlled SP for Chavis. I think that should be the next play for Chaim. Mookie will probably have 25 homers instead of 34 due to park factors but he's still going to be virtually the same player as he was here. This isn't a Fred Lynn being traded type of situation.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 10, 2020 10:36:26 GMT -5
Still, he was a big strikeout guy who had an injury history before the trade. There were some red flags. What's Mookie's? That he can't hit home runs to right field? Career OPS away from Fenway is .858, is average is .285, and with value created by speed and defense, just look at Carl Crawford as to what happens to value if those slip at age 31 -33. www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=bettsmo01&year=Career&t=b#hmvis::noneOk! Crawford through age 26: .293/.330/.435, 23.6 bWAR Betts through age 26: .301/.374/.519, 42.0 bWAR Great comp, very similar.
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Post by manfred on Feb 10, 2020 10:39:54 GMT -5
At this point, I hope Mookie wins MVP, WS MVP, and gets a 10/$500 million contract. Are people really going to rubbish him on the way out? C’mon. There is not a player on our roster I’d rather have than him, contract issues beibg even half-way reasonable.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 10, 2020 10:40:55 GMT -5
Why will 1B or 2B be better? I agree Beni should be better. If not, it is time to reconsider what he is. They are obviously fat worse in RF. JDM is one year older and carries even more power burden. X and Devers have to repeat sick years (as does CVaz). That is all actually not so bad... but you pretty much have 3 legit starters on paper, two of whom were hurt most of last year and one who had his only fully healthy season ever. And a bullpen that is hardly inspiring. I loved Workman last year, but I am worried he had a miracle season. In short, this is a worse team than last year, with worse intangibles (traded best player, fired manager, unhappy fan base).... I am certainly betting against WC contention. They're definitely worse on paper than last year, but so many things went wrong last year that they could easily have a better record in 2020 if the luck swings in the other direction. It's kind of like how the Yankees are better on paper this year, but they were really lucky in a lot of ways last year, so I wouldn't bank on them actually having a better record. That's all true, but I think it dismisses the fact that the Red Sox have gotten worse on the field while others have improved themselves. The pitching needed to be drastically improved. It's not. The rotation is quite short and the pen is iffy, to be kind. I don't expect Workman to dominate again and avoid HRs and not pay for the walks like he did last season. They need Sale to be healthy and ace-like dominant. They need Eovaldi to be healthy and productive. That hasn't been their recent track record. They need Perez to the guy that he was in the first half last season, not the guy who was brutal in the second half and mediocre for the duration of his career. I think his last two or three years is more indicative of what he is - a #5 starter. E-Rod has to repeat last year and if he's healthy he can pitch as well, without the gaudy W/L record. After that, it gets really sketchy, and the depth is not exactly overwhelming. One or two injuries to Sale or Eovaldi and it'll be extremely tough to find 5 guys to start. And even with a reliever starting, you need a guy who can deliver bulk innings out of the pen (or give the same 5 innings a starter would) or else you get bullpen games that destroy bullpens. Hard to compete seriously that way. Honestly if the Sox themselves thought they were serious contenders they wouldn't have traded Betts and Price. They would have taken their chances with them. I mean, that's what the 04 Red Sox did. I would anticipate that the Sox will try to trade JBJ and JDM by July, not that they'll get a lot for them.
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Post by stevedillard on Feb 10, 2020 10:43:12 GMT -5
Ok! Crawford through age 26: .293/.330/.435, 23.6 bWAR Betts through age 26: .301/.374/.519, 42.0 bWAR Great comp, very similar. I am not comparing their production, as obviously Mookie has greater power. But my point is that where much value comes from defense and baserunning, it stops at some point, and for Crawford, it stopped at age 29. Obviously the drop for Crawford was from a lower baseline, but in terms of "flags" that is one I would look at.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 10, 2020 10:43:54 GMT -5
This team might surprise people. I'd call up a few teams to see if they would give a good young cost-controlled SP for Chavis. I think that should be the next play for Chaim. Mookie will probably have 25 homers instead of 34 due to park factors but he's still going to be virtually the same player as he was here. This isn't a Fred Lynn being traded type of situation. Offensively they're similar but there's two big differences. Mookie has shown to be durable. Lynn was injured quite a lot. And defensively, Mookie is better than Lynn. Honestly, Mookie would probably be a very rangy gold glove CF. Lynn made some spectacular catches but his range wasn't that great and he certainly didn't have Mookie's arm either. Mookie would have been in CF all these years except that the one guy who was a better CF than he is happened to be his teammate.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 10, 2020 10:47:35 GMT -5
I actually think the fact that they've remade the bottom 1/3 of the 40-man roster as an argument for why they could surprise people is a very decent one and will make it all the more frustrating when they finish with 85 wins.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Feb 10, 2020 10:47:41 GMT -5
Mookie has all but said he is going to the highest bidder. Makes sense to loan him out European-style for the last year of his contract and then get back in on the bidding the same as everyone else next winter.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 10, 2020 10:50:21 GMT -5
Ok! Crawford through age 26: .293/.330/.435, 23.6 bWAR Betts through age 26: .301/.374/.519, 42.0 bWAR Great comp, very similar. I am not comparing their production, as obviously Mookie has greater power. But my point is that where much value comes from defense and baserunning, it stops at some point, and for Crawford, it stopped at age 29. Obviously the drop for Crawford was from a lower baseline, but in terms of "flags" that is one I would look at. My point that you're vastly underrating the offensive difference between Betts and Crawford. Betts is a gifted hitter with amazing contact and plate skills, Carl Crawford needed like five years in the big leagues to become an even kinda good hitter. They're as different as hitters as Wade Boggs and Jose Canseco.
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Post by manfred on Feb 10, 2020 11:09:05 GMT -5
I actually think the fact that they've remade the bottom 1/3 of the 40-man roster as an argument for why they could surprise people is a very decent one and will make it all the more frustrating when they finish with 85 wins. They’ve moved pieces, but is it really much better? Is Peraza better than Holt? Is Plawexki that much better than Leon (has to be but by what margin?)... etc. I don’t see a single place this team is that much better than last year, but I see a few they are far worse.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 10, 2020 11:20:59 GMT -5
This is going to be a super fun season in the game day threads. Baseball is either enjoyable to watch or isn't on television in my house and I wish it were that way for all fans.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 10, 2020 11:24:45 GMT -5
I actually think the fact that they've remade the bottom 1/3 of the 40-man roster as an argument for why they could surprise people is a very decent one and will make it all the more frustrating when they finish with 85 wins. They’ve moved pieces, but is it really much better? Is Peraza better than Holt? Is Plawexki that much better than Leon (has to be but by what margin?)... etc. I don’t see a single place this team is that much better than last year, but I see a few they are far worse. To use your specific questions as an example: Peraza is 6 years younger than Holt and might very well be better, particularly for a more full-time role. The calculus here depends in part in what Holt eventually signs for and in part if there's something with Peraza at the plate they think they can fix. Plawecki is better than Leon, cheaper, and under control for longer. As I've said before, I have no idea what the Indians were thinking on that one. The team will be worse in right field, but I don't see how the starting pitching can go anywhere but up. Where do you think they got much worse, based on 2019 performance at least? The holes in the lineup are the same as last year's (they got nothing out of 2B last year and 1B wasn't that great), and it's not like Porcello was good.
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