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Mookie Betts traded as part of a three-team deal
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Post by stevedillard on Feb 10, 2020 11:25:40 GMT -5
My point that you're vastly underrating the offensive difference between Betts and Crawford. Betts is a gifted hitter with amazing contact and plate skills, Carl Crawford needed like five years in the big leagues to become an even kinda good hitter. They're as different as hitters as Wade Boggs and Jose Canseco. My point is that based on Offensive value, Betts is not a one of the top 5 players in baseball. He is well rounded, and adds value from defense and speed. I would not want to pay a 36 year old based on value from speed and defense. I chose Crawford because much of his "value" was also based on the secondary skills, and those can drop off at age 30. Offensive WAR 1. Trout • LAA 8.3 2. Bregman • HOU 7.7 3. Semien • OAK 7.5 4. Bogaerts • BOS 7.1 5. Devers • BOS 5.7 6. Polanco • MIN 5.4 7. LeMahieu • NYY 5.2 Betts • BOS 5.29. Moncada • CHW 5.2 10. Springer • HOU 5.1 ------------------------------ Offensive WAR 1. Trout • LAA 9.2 2. Betts • BOS 8.73. Bregman • HOU 7.5 4. Ramirez • CLE 7.4 5. Martinez • BOS 6.8 6. Lindor • CLE 6.3 7. Bogaerts • BOS 5.6 8. Haniger • SEA 5.5 9. Chapman • OAK 5.0 10. Altuve • HOU 5.0 -------------------------------- Offensive WAR 1. Altuve • HOU 7.8 2. Trout • LAA 7.2 3. Judge • NYY 7.2 4. Ramirez • CLE 6.4 5. Correa • HOU 5.7 6. Schoop • BAL 5.0 7. Lindor • CLE 5.0 8. Upton • 2TM 5.0 9. Springer • HOU 4.9 10. Cain • KCR 4.9 ------------------------------- 1. Trout • LAA 9.9 2. Altuve • HOU 7.9 3. Donaldson • TOR 7.3 4. Correa • HOU 6.4 Betts • BOS 6.46. Cano • SEA 6.2 7. Dozier • MIN 6.0 8. Cabrera • DET 5.4 9. Seager • SEA 5.3 10. Machado • BAL 5.2 ----------------------------- 1. Trout • LAA 8.8 2. Donaldson • TOR 7.4 3. Cruz • SEA 6.0 4. Machado • BAL 5.7 5. Eaton • CHW 5.5 6. Davis • BAL 5.3 7. Cain • KCR 5.2 8. Bautista • TOR 5.1 9. Betts • BOS 4.810. Cabrera • DET ---------------------------------- 1. Trout • LAA 8.8 2. Bautista • TOR 6.8 3. Abreu • CHW 6.8 4. Brantley • CLE 6.7 5. Altuve • HOU 6.7 6. Cano • SEA 6.2 7. Martinez • DET 5.9 8. Beltre • TEX 5.6 9. Cabrera • DET 5.2 10. Donaldson • OAK
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 10, 2020 11:27:11 GMT -5
I actually think the fact that they've remade the bottom 1/3 of the 40-man roster as an argument for why they could surprise people is a very decent one and will make it all the more frustrating when they finish with 85 wins. They’ve moved pieces, but is it really much better? Is Peraza better than Holt? Is Plawexki that much better than Leon (has to be but by what margin?)... etc. I don’t see a single place this team is that much better than last year, but I see a few they are far worse. The back end of the pitching staff is loads better than it was last year and will be much better equipped to handle injuries or underperformance. Last year even predictable stuff like Steven Wright and Brian Johnson not contributing doomed them. The depth is much, much better this year. Guys 32-40 on the 40-man roster aren't going to make this into a championship contender, but I'd bet they're worth four or five wins over the long haul. It's why, before this trade, I thought they were a 90-win team with 95 being a "stuff went right" outcome. Now I see them as like an 82-win team. My point is that based on Offensive value, Betts is not a one of the top 5 players in baseball. Maybe I'm reading the chart wrong, but it looks like he's third in offensive WAR alone in the last two years? I know this is AL-only, but this didn't really do much for the "not as much of Betts' value comes from hitting" argument.
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Post by manfred on Feb 10, 2020 11:53:05 GMT -5
They’ve moved pieces, but is it really much better? Is Peraza better than Holt? Is Plawexki that much better than Leon (has to be but by what margin?)... etc. I don’t see a single place this team is that much better than last year, but I see a few they are far worse. To use your specific questions as an example: Peraza is 6 years younger than Holt and might very well be better, particularly for a more full-time role. The calculus here depends in part in what Holt eventually signs for and in part if there's something with Peraza at the plate they think they can fix. Plawecki is better than Leon, cheaper, and under control for longer. As I've said before, I have no idea what the Indians were thinking on that one. The team will be worse in right field, but I don't see how the starting pitching can go anywhere but up. Where do you think they got much worse, based on 2019 performance at least? The holes in the lineup are the same as last year's (they got nothing out of 2B last year and 1B wasn't that great), and it's not like Porcello was good. I am talking 2020, though, so the long term factors don’t matter. I don’t see any of these guys as long term factors, especially given that the Betts trade landed players in both these positions. For one year, it is hard to make the case that next year’s team is better anywhere on the field. It is easy to make the case they are worse in a few key spots. Edit: well, Porcello was not great, but Perez is not good either and less of an innings eater. Trading Porcello and Price for Perez is not a plus. If you said to me last spring the staff is Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, and Eovaldi and now this spring, Sale, Erod, Eovaldi, Perez, and ?... which do you prefer?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 10, 2020 11:54:48 GMT -5
To use your specific questions as an example: Peraza is 6 years younger than Holt and might very well be better, particularly for a more full-time role. The calculus here depends in part in what Holt eventually signs for and in part if there's something with Peraza at the plate they think they can fix. Plawecki is better than Leon, cheaper, and under control for longer. As I've said before, I have no idea what the Indians were thinking on that one. The team will be worse in right field, but I don't see how the starting pitching can go anywhere but up. Where do you think they got much worse, based on 2019 performance at least? The holes in the lineup are the same as last year's (they got nothing out of 2B last year and 1B wasn't that great), and it's not like Porcello was good. I am talking 2020, though, so the long term factors don’t matter. I don’t see any of these guys as long term factors, especially given that the Betts trade landed players in both these positions. For one year, it is hard to make the case that next year’s team is better anywhere on the field. It is easy to make the case they are worse in a few key spots. OK, then by all means make the argument. Other than RF, I don't think it'll be as easy as you think. Maybe start a new thread though? We're going off on a tangent here.
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Post by nonothing on Feb 10, 2020 12:14:30 GMT -5
Manfred, I am sad and angry that Mookie is gone, and we will miss Price as he transitions to being an older SP. I will also miss The Brockstar deeply. But I am very happy that $40M has been cleared off the books along with about $30M in financial penalties and draft pool; and especially holding on to top draft picks. BTW I found some notes from several years ago quoting discussions on various sites about the need to reset in 2020. It was going to happen. The shame is that Mookie got caught up in this cul de sac, but this is partly his choice to refuse an extension and then require a 12 year deal at $35M. Some say he owes the Sox nothing and should demand his worth. Maybe. But the Sox drafted him and developed his talents, kept him from giving up, paid him very well, and can take some credit for being the wind beneath wings during his rise to greatness. The loving fans and media were also beneath his wings. And it is fellow players, like Holt and Shaw and Cishek who could not get paid because of the high cost of keeping Mookie and Price and Sale and JD and Eovaldi. It’s messed up. Mookie is NOT to blame for a messed up system. He is as much a victim of it as we are, and the Sox are, and his team mates are. It really is what it is for now. We take a step backwards without Mookie and David (and Holt). But this team is still a threat. The Farm is considerably stronger with Jeter 2.0 and Wong. The bullpen is very deep and the Shredder ranks Workman as baseball’s 7th best closer. Who knows what RP’s like Darwinzon, Taylor, Brice, Feltman, Brasier will offer. Verdugo, a very good, young, 5-tool right fielder, along with still emerging Beni, Bogaerts, Devers, Chavis, Dalbec, Vasquez, JDM will all be worth watching in 2020. The big ![???](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/huh.png) ?? again, with or without Mookie, is the Rotation. I am betting that Sale, ERod and Eovaldi are ready to compete. Nor will it be a surprise if Bloom signs another starter at some point. [ In sum, IMO the last thing the Sox should do is blow up this wonderful team. See how iit goes and where it goes. ST in two days. Awesome. Yup. No need to blow up. Bullpen could use a guy or two, but for the first time, we have some Lefty guys who can pitch in there. We are at 39 on roster after the deal. People on boards like this usually don’t realize the value of clearing a roster spot, but if you can trade for a low cost guy like Stripling now or add a Taijuan Walker, who could turn out to be great for very little risk, that’s actually added return in the deal. We didn’t just get 3 players vs two, we got 2 who are not low level (already at AA), but don’t need 40 man spots, so we cleared a spot to find a bargain this time of year, and that has real value. And there is no need to blow up the team. Really dumb idea. JBJ will get dealt at deadline if they can actually get something of value for him and we are not competitive. Then we would get a look at Duran, if he doesn’t hit the upper minors hitting wall. But I would not rule out Sale, ERod and Eovaldi being very good, and maybe Shawaryn and BJ can be enough for the 5 spot in the rotation until we get a look at Mata in Sept (if he pitches well). Perez in the 4 spot is awful, so... I guess I am really hoping we get Taijuan Walker or somebody else for that spot. I cannot believe they spent $6.5MM on a LH starter who is awful.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 10, 2020 12:22:32 GMT -5
I wish people would stop saying Mookie “demanded” X dollars. He always wanted to test free agency. There is a report that the Red Sox offered Y and he said in order to forego free agency I’d like X. That is in no way a demand. The basic problem is that we who have only scraps of information should not pretend that we really know what has been said.
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Post by cyaz8 on Feb 10, 2020 12:29:43 GMT -5
I think Mookie will drop off some offense stats due to change from hitter friendly (home games @ Fenway,Camden Yards, Trop. Stadium, Roger Centre, and Yankees Stadium) to huge pitcher park (home games @ Dodger Stadium, Petco Park, Chase Field, Oracle Park and Coors Field). I think that only Coors will helps him with easy HR like Camden Yards. I won't be too surprise to see him drop off stats and lose his gamble by 12/420 contact he's seeking for as FA. It'll be lower than that. He won't produce more RBI with weak lower #7-9 Dodgers line up. Mookie will miss Fenway and friendly AL hitter parks.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Feb 10, 2020 12:40:25 GMT -5
In the summer of 2018 we rescued a little dog and named her, "Mookie." I've mentioned this before. That was absolutely the most dominant season of Red Sox Baseball any of us have seen and we got to watch our young right fielder become better than Trout (for a season anyway). He had a future as bright as the sun and it was thrilling to just ponder how good he would be and how good the teams he was on could be.
A couple months after that World Series win, that little dog tragically died in my wife's arms as we were rushing her to an emergency vet. We were crushed. I got over losing Mookie the dog, but I still wish she was here. I'm upset Mookie Betts is gone too, but I will get over that as well.
I am a Red Sox fan and have been since I was 10 years old in 1975 watching Lynn and Rice come up and be amazing. I will always be a Red Sox fan because I am hard wired that way now, just like nearly everyone else that posts here. It is rare when I think the Sox are not going to win a particular game (this only happens when a particularly dominant ace is matched against a struggling Sox starter while Sox bats are in a team-wide slump). I am just optimistic like that. Its more fun to be a Sox fan that way, at least for me.
I hate that Mookie is gone. I hope he plays for my favorite team in 2021 and for a long time thereafter, but I don't want the team to overpay him and damage the opportunity to put playoff caliber teams on the field year after year. So long, Mookie. Hurry back to Boston. I sure did enjoy watching you hit, run, field and throw. You are one of the most entertaining baseball players I have seen and compare to David Ortiz and Pedro Martinez in that area.
I am looking forward to the 2020 season, although I know the Sox won't have as much talent on the roster as they did in 2018 when they were brilliant, and in 2019 when they were not at all brilliant. I can't wait to hear what Hatfield and the Spring Training Crew think of their first live look at Downs and Wong. The Sox fan in me is upset about this trade in spite of the fact that it was probably a good long term move. The prospect fan in me is, as always, really looking forward to watching young ball players climb the ladder and make it to the show.
Occasionally, life hurts. Sometimes baseball does too.
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Post by nonothing on Feb 10, 2020 12:40:44 GMT -5
The thing that is best for Mookie is the lineup he is joining. People may not like this, but if we had sent him to the Marlins, watching his HRs drop and batting AVG go back to .260s like it was between Ortiz and Martinez years would be a real possibility. Great fastball hitter, but needs guys behind him the pitcher is scared of. On Dodgers, he may get his record contract. But I don’t think he is a top 10 hitter on his own like Trout or Yelich or JDM or other guys who can really hit anywhere under any set of circumstances. (I will duck under a table while things get thrown at me, but I believe this to be true - his defense and offense when in a very good lineup combined are what make him special.)
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 10, 2020 13:01:13 GMT -5
Since I'm something of a roster construction nut, I do feel compelled to point out that Downs would not need to be added to the 40-man roster until after the 2021 season. Wong would need to be added after this year.
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Post by nonothing on Feb 10, 2020 13:15:29 GMT -5
Since I'm something of a roster construction nut, I do feel compelled to point out that Downs would not need to be added to the 40-man roster until after the 2021 season. Wong would need to be added after this year. Yup — I wrote that already. And Dodgers will now have 42, while we would have 39. Would love to see another deal, with Stripling and maybe a borderline 40 man roster piece for Dodgers (who is better than our bottom end) coming to us for other guy or so we have off 40 man that they might like. Maybe a guy like Feltman who they could wait to add until he matures, but has high upside. Would be worth it for a starter like Stripling with 3 yrs of cheap control vs lottery ticket for 6 yrs in bullpen. We can fit one 40 man guy for free, but giving them value without need for DFA, we might be able to fit another and jettison our bottom guy, so they don’t get caught losing a guy on waivers who has value.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 10, 2020 13:27:25 GMT -5
My point that you're vastly underrating the offensive difference between Betts and Crawford. Betts is a gifted hitter with amazing contact and plate skills, Carl Crawford needed like five years in the big leagues to become an even kinda good hitter. They're as different as hitters as Wade Boggs and Jose Canseco. My point is that based on Offensive value, Betts is not a one of the top 5 players in baseball. He is well rounded, and adds value from defense and speed. I would not want to pay a 36 year old based on value from speed and defense. I chose Crawford because much of his "value" was also based on the secondary skills, and those can drop off at age 30.Being a good defender to start off is not a disadvantage when aging! It's not like Miguel Cabrera was ever a defensively valuable piece but that doesn't mean he's insulated from defensive decline, it means he goes from being a marginal 1B to a true DH only, whereas Mookie can steadily decline for years and still be a passible corner outfielder in his mid 30s. Crawford, fine. I'll counter with Brett Gardner, Ichiro, Kenny Lofton, Carlos Beltran... we can play the game of picking individual players who fit our argument all day. But if you're asking for a player -- a real player -- who's more likely to age well than Betts, I like I don't know who you're even looking for. Trout, ok, fine. Who else are you so much more confident in, though?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 10, 2020 13:29:53 GMT -5
The thing that is best for Mookie is the lineup he is joining. People may not like this, but if we had sent him to the Marlins, watching his HRs drop and batting AVG go back to .260s like it was between Ortiz and Martinez years would be a real possibility. Great fastball hitter, but needs guys behind him the pitcher is scared of. On Dodgers, he may get his record contract. But I don’t think he is a top 10 hitter on his own like Trout or Yelich or JDM or other guys who can really hit anywhere under any set of circumstances. (I will duck under a table while things get thrown at me, but I believe this to be true - his defense and offense when in a very good lineup combined are what make him special.) I think you're overstating the impact. If he went to the Marlins, even if his BA declined, his walk total would skyrocket as pitchers would work around him and Betts is smart enough not to chase so his OBP would still be sky high. His defense and base running will still be spectacular. His power would decline a bit, I would think, although some of those doubles he hit off the Monster might carry out of the ballpark, too, so maybe his HRs would stay steady or even improve while those wall doubles would lessen. Mookie Betts is a great player no matter who's in the lineup. He just had an off-year in 2017.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 10, 2020 13:41:35 GMT -5
Off-topic, but my 2020 Sox calendar is off to a terrific start with Pedroia, Price, and Betts going January, February and March.
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Post by soxin8 on Feb 10, 2020 13:42:01 GMT -5
Since I'm something of a roster construction nut, I do feel compelled to point out that Downs would not need to be added to the 40-man roster until after the 2021 season. Wong would need to be added after this year. Yup — I wrote that already. And Dodgers will now have 42, while we would have 39. Would love to see another deal, with Stripling and maybe a borderline 40 man roster piece for Dodgers (who is better than our bottom end) coming to us for other guy or so we have off 40 man that they might like. Maybe a guy like Feltman who they could wait to add until he matures, but has high upside. Would be worth it for a starter like Stripling with 3 yrs of cheap control vs lottery ticket for 6 yrs in bullpen. We can fit one 40 man guy for free, but giving them value without need for DFA, we might be able to fit another and jettison our bottom guy, so they don’t get caught losing a guy on waivers who has value. Sox 40 man currently at 39 but when spring training starts they will be able to place Pedroia on the 60 day which will give them two openings to add pitchers they like. I've seen one Sox win total projection at 85.5 now which puts them in the conversation for a wild card spot. NY was at 101. Cot's now has the Sox almost 20 MM under the the 208 mark which gives them a lot of flexibility to add now or at the deadline if they are in it. It may be tougher this year but I wouldn't say they have completely punted the year. Could go either way July 31. I like that Law and Callis thought it was a good return. soxfaninnj pointed out Gammons got it right. Addam pointed out that LA should just keep Graterol and give us their prospects.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Feb 10, 2020 13:45:49 GMT -5
Off-topic, but my 2020 Sox calendar is off to a terrific start with Pedroia, Price, and Betts going January, February and March. Whoever is April might not be on the team by then
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Post by soxin8 on Feb 10, 2020 13:50:59 GMT -5
Portland opens April 9 in Hartford. Anybody in the area up to see Mata, Downs, and Wong among others?
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Post by nonothing on Feb 10, 2020 13:54:48 GMT -5
The thing that is best for Mookie is the lineup he is joining. People may not like this, but if we had sent him to the Marlins, watching his HRs drop and batting AVG go back to .260s like it was between Ortiz and Martinez years would be a real possibility. Great fastball hitter, but needs guys behind him the pitcher is scared of. On Dodgers, he may get his record contract. But I don’t think he is a top 10 hitter on his own like Trout or Yelich or JDM or other guys who can really hit anywhere under any set of circumstances. (I will duck under a table while things get thrown at me, but I believe this to be true - his defense and offense when in a very good lineup combined are what make him special.) I think you're overstating the impact. If he went to the Marlins, even if his BA declined, his walk total would skyrocket as pitchers would work around him and Betts is smart enough not to chase so his OBP would still be sky high. His defense and base running will still be spectacular. His power would decline a bit, I would think, although some of those doubles he hit off the Monster might carry out of the ballpark, too, so maybe his HRs would stay steady or even improve while those wall doubles would lessen. Mookie Betts is a great player no matter who's in the lineup. He just had an off-year in 2017. No doubt his defense would be elite anywhere (though I do wonder how he compares to the best CFs, but I imagine even against CF competition, he would be excellent). Offensively — I expect we will see him as more of a .290s hitter than .300+. He has had more years under .300 than over. OBP in upper .300s still makes him great. He and Yelich both have 139 HRs and career BA of .301. I’d take Yelich on his trajectory over Betts. Yelich has higher career OBP at .383 vs .374, is seeing HR totals rise (40+/yr power), and he stole 30 bases last year. If I could sign one or the other, it would be Yelich, not Mookie. Bellinger is probably a better player also. I have really enjoyed watching Mookie, but we did not just trade away the second best player in baseball. I am not sure we traded a top 5 position player. Arguments for Trout, Yelich, Bellinger, Lindor and Soto and Acuna are probably guys I would take over Mookie. That doesn’t mean Betts is not a great, great player. But it is realistic to suggest that he wants the biggest contract ever and might not even be a deserving NL All-Star starter in the OF in his walk year. He might be... but he might not be.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Feb 10, 2020 14:32:36 GMT -5
I think Mookie will drop off some offense stats due to change from hitter friendly (home games @ Fenway,Camden Yards, Trop. Stadium, Roger Centre, and Yankees Stadium) to huge pitcher park (home games @ Dodger Stadium, Petco Park, Chase Field, Oracle Park and Coors Field). I think that only Coors will helps him with easy HR like Camden Yards. I won't be too surprise to see him drop off stats and lose his gamble by 12/420 contact he's seeking for as FA. It'll be lower than that. He won't produce more RBI with weak lower #7-9 Dodgers line up. Mookie will miss Fenway and friendly AL hitter parks. I see it the same way. If, and I agree this is an if, Verdugo is healthy, the stats between them offensively may not be as great as some think. Love Betts, but this is different parks that could hurt his numbers. Dodger Stadium itself is more of a pitcher's park, and San Fran is not friendly either.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 10, 2020 15:06:39 GMT -5
Every team at this point has an analytics department that's going to be using park- and league-adjusted numbers. We're not still in the days of signing guys based on batting average and RBIs.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Feb 10, 2020 15:12:40 GMT -5
Every team at this point has an analytics department that's going to be using park- and league-adjusted numbers. We're not still in the days of signing guys based on batting average and RBIs. Meaning what? Do you think, Chris, that the NL West parks won't potentially hurt Mookie's stats?
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 10, 2020 15:14:22 GMT -5
Every team at this point has an analytics department that's going to be using park- and league-adjusted numbers. We're not still in the days of signing guys based on batting average and RBIs. Meaning what? Do you think, Chris, that the NL West parks won't potentially hurt Mookie's stats? Do you think any team is unaware that Dodger Stadium plays differently than Fenway Park and is just going to be all "oh his OPS was .885 instead of .915, no reason to pay the man?" His raw stats being lower doesn't hurt his value, that's the entire point of park effects.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Feb 10, 2020 15:20:41 GMT -5
Meaning what? Do you think, Chris, that the NL West parks won't potentially hurt Mookie's stats? Do you think any team is unaware that Dodger Stadium plays differently than Fenway Park and is just going to be all "oh his OPS was .885 instead of .915, no reason to pay the man?" His raw stats being lower doesn't hurt his value, that's the entire point of park effects. WHERE did I say anything like that, James??
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Post by fenwaydouble on Feb 10, 2020 15:22:38 GMT -5
Do you think any team is unaware that Dodger Stadium plays differently than Fenway Park and is just going to be all "oh his OPS was .885 instead of .915, no reason to pay the man?" His raw stats being lower doesn't hurt his value, that's the entire point of park effects. WHERE did I say anything like that, James?? cyaz8 said he expects Mookie's numbers to drop, causing him to lose his contract gamble. You said you see it the same way.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Feb 10, 2020 15:27:40 GMT -5
WHERE did I say anything like that, James?? cyaz8 said he expects Mookie's numbers to drop, causing him to lose his contract gamble. You said you see it the same way. I didn't say it would hurt his value. I said their offensive stats may be pretty close.
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