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2021 MLB Draft
cdj
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Post by cdj on May 27, 2021 8:46:20 GMT -5
Keith Law's first mock: 1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, Louisville 2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX) 3. Detroit Tigers: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) High School 5. Baltimore Orioles: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (GA) High School 6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt 7. Kansas City Royals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow (GA) High School 8. Colorado Rockies: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (OK) High School 9. Los Angeles Angels: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS 10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA theathletic.com/2613518/2021/05/27/2021-mlb-mock-draft-1-0-kumar-rocker-to-red-sox-pirates-go-with-a-catcher-at-no-1-in-keith-laws-first-look/I bet we see an online meltdown if they pick Rocker over Leiter lol Me? I’ll happily take either
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Post by incandenza on May 27, 2021 8:50:55 GMT -5
Keith Law's first mock: 1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, Louisville 2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX) 3. Detroit Tigers: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) High School 5. Baltimore Orioles: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (GA) High School 6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt 7. Kansas City Royals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow (GA) High School 8. Colorado Rockies: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (OK) High School 9. Los Angeles Angels: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS 10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA theathletic.com/2613518/2021/05/27/2021-mlb-mock-draft-1-0-kumar-rocker-to-red-sox-pirates-go-with-a-catcher-at-no-1-in-keith-laws-first-look/This phrasing seems to imply they'd take one of the college guys even if Mayer or Lawlar were available.
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Post by texs31 on May 27, 2021 8:55:45 GMT -5
Keith Law's first mock: 1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, Louisville 2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX) 3. Detroit Tigers: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) High School 5. Baltimore Orioles: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (GA) High School 6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt 7. Kansas City Royals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow (GA) High School 8. Colorado Rockies: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (OK) High School 9. Los Angeles Angels: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS 10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA theathletic.com/2613518/2021/05/27/2021-mlb-mock-draft-1-0-kumar-rocker-to-red-sox-pirates-go-with-a-catcher-at-no-1-in-keith-laws-first-look/I bet we see an online meltdown if they pick Rocker over Leiter lol Me? I’ll happily take either I've already prepared to simultaneously love and hate whomever they take at 4 (hey, it's the #4 pick but, yeah, look at all the reasons it could go bad). Probably in my best interest to think about all the things they can do in later rounds with that bonus pool.
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Post by 1toolplayer on May 27, 2021 9:25:07 GMT -5
Harry Ford at 5 is a hot take. I get saving some money, and not worrying if you've got the position filled at the major league level... but damn FWIW, in Law's mind, it's not THAT hot of a take bc he has Ford as his #9 prospect based on his 5/13 board. So while he does say in the article that it's based on the "current wisdom suggests that Baltimore will look to cut a deal that saves them a substantial amount of money . . .", it's still aligned with the early discussion about below slot deals (not taking a player that is significantly lower on the board, just to save slot money for later). In his mind, Ford is right there but likely willing to deal. Agreed, we just saw them cut a deal w Kerstad last year, when all spring Martin seemed like a certainty, and if not Martin they would have their choice of college Ps Hancock, Lacy, or Meyer. Sal Frelick will be the pick for the O's though, and will be underslot.
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Post by Guidas on May 27, 2021 9:35:21 GMT -5
Keith Law's first mock: 1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, Louisville 2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX) 3. Detroit Tigers: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) High School 5. Baltimore Orioles: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (GA) High School 6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt 7. Kansas City Royals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow (GA) High School 8. Colorado Rockies: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (OK) High School 9. Los Angeles Angels: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS 10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA theathletic.com/2613518/2021/05/27/2021-mlb-mock-draft-1-0-kumar-rocker-to-red-sox-pirates-go-with-a-catcher-at-no-1-in-keith-laws-first-look/I bet we see an online meltdown if they pick Rocker over Leiter lol Me? I’ll happily take either Yes, any of those three players seem like a win.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on May 27, 2021 9:39:22 GMT -5
Keith Law's first mock: 1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, Louisville 2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX) 3. Detroit Tigers: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) High School 5. Baltimore Orioles: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (GA) High School 6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt 7. Kansas City Royals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow (GA) High School 8. Colorado Rockies: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (OK) High School 9. Los Angeles Angels: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS 10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA theathletic.com/2613518/2021/05/27/2021-mlb-mock-draft-1-0-kumar-rocker-to-red-sox-pirates-go-with-a-catcher-at-no-1-in-keith-laws-first-look/Harry Ford at 5 is a hot take. I get saving some money, and not worrying if you've got the position filled at the major league level... but damn Harry Ford is very good though. Personally I won't mind picking him for an under slot deal, my preference goes to Frelick as I mentioned before if Mayer isn't available but I'm a fan of Ford too. LINK
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Post by Guidas on May 27, 2021 10:22:07 GMT -5
Law's scouting report on two hot Northeast prospects that may go late first or early 2nd round. Subscription-only, but excerpt below of a kid whose family I know, though not well. He's committed to UConn but, well, we'll see: When it comes to the non-velocity factors, however, Mozzicato (90-92FB that's been up to 94mph) has all the edges. He’s left-handed and has a cleaner delivery with lots of physical projection left. He cuts himself off slightly in his landing, so getting to his glove side might be a problem in the long run but right now he can spin a curveball toward a right-handed batter’s back foot to compensate. Petty, meanwhile, has a ton of effort in his delivery, regardless of pitch type. He gets a lot of his velocity from a huge stride toward the plate, which is great, but even with his arm speed it can’t catch up to his landing and he’s frequently late, leading to inconsistent command of both pitches. He falls off very hard to the first-base side after release, and his head moves so much that at one point, he lost his hat after throwing a fastball.
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Post by tyler3 on May 27, 2021 11:46:32 GMT -5
For me the guy who seems to fit a lot of the rumored Red Sox desires (minus college) is Kahlil Watson. He’s a part of the HS SS elite. People are beginning to think he’ll stick at short and if not he has the arm and athleticism to play anywhere else, and steal bases. He has the picture perfect left handed swing. He’s produced at every show case and is raking right now in the spring. He’s also 5’11” so he’s consistently ranked 7 through 10 on the boards. I think with him you can get your SS and save money. Fangraphs (who need to update their board, but Watson has done nothing but rake since it was put up) are super high on him. Mason McRae just loves him. He’s a super high ceiling bat who will add value with his glove and running game. Just a guy I like whose a bat/high ceiling/decent floor, and a chance at a deal.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 27, 2021 11:51:54 GMT -5
I think the only name suggested at 4 recently that I didn’t like was Fabian
Which is hilarious because if you rewind to winter I was pounding the table for him at 4
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Post by philarhody on May 27, 2021 12:04:56 GMT -5
Harry Ford at 5 is a hot take. I get saving some money, and not worrying if you've got the position filled at the major league level... but damn Harry Ford is very good though. Personally I won't mind picking him for an under slot deal, my preference goes to Frelick as I mentioned before if Mayer isn't available but I'm a fan of Ford too. LINKWait, this high school catcher couldn’t hit .300 across 5 months? And he’s being viewed as a top 10 guy? Lol Edit: I’m assuming this is a super sss
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Post by ramireja on May 27, 2021 12:13:54 GMT -5
Harry Ford is very good though. Personally I won't mind picking him for an under slot deal, my preference goes to Frelick as I mentioned before if Mayer isn't available but I'm a fan of Ford too. LINKWait, this high school catcher couldn’t hit .300 across 5 months? And he’s being viewed as a top 10 guy? Lol Edit: I’m assuming this is a super sss I'm nearly certain those numbers come from his time on the showcase circuit, so it's more like hitting nearly .300 with more BB than K against the best HS competition in the country.
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Post by patford on May 27, 2021 13:03:47 GMT -5
If the Sox take Rocker I will immediately assume I've been wrong about Bloom and he's a complete idiot.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 27, 2021 13:28:05 GMT -5
Keith Law's first mock: 1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, Louisville 2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX) 3. Detroit Tigers: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) High School 5. Baltimore Orioles: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (GA) High School 6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt 7. Kansas City Royals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow (GA) High School 8. Colorado Rockies: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (OK) High School 9. Los Angeles Angels: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS 10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA theathletic.com/2613518/2021/05/27/2021-mlb-mock-draft-1-0-kumar-rocker-to-red-sox-pirates-go-with-a-catcher-at-no-1-in-keith-laws-first-look/I bet we see an online meltdown if they pick Rocker over Leiter lol Me? I’ll happily take either I think people would be surprised but intrigued and ultimately happy with it. Lot of people here were around for the Trey Ball pick so they’re mentally prepared for something like that.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on May 27, 2021 13:29:08 GMT -5
Harry Ford is very good though. Personally I won't mind picking him for an under slot deal, my preference goes to Frelick as I mentioned before if Mayer isn't available but I'm a fan of Ford too. LINKWait, this high school catcher couldn’t hit .300 across 5 months? And he’s being viewed as a top 10 guy? Lol Edit: I’m assuming this is a super sss If you read the article linked, you'll see that those numbers were in the showcase circuit, meaning vs the top arms in the country.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on May 27, 2021 13:45:44 GMT -5
From Keith Law's Chat today:
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 27, 2021 13:49:57 GMT -5
Rocker is pitching tonight against #1 Arkansas at 9pm. Definitely his biggest test of the year in front of packed house full of scouts.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 27, 2021 14:16:57 GMT -5
Every media tidbit about the Red Sox intentions boils down to "Nobody has told me anything at all, but here's what I think a smart team should do..."
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 27, 2021 14:19:07 GMT -5
I don’t think going underslot makes any sense given the Red Sox draft position. Maybe it makes sense when you have the first pick of the second or third tier group of prospects but not when you have a shot at one of the top tier of five or six guys.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 27, 2021 14:54:52 GMT -5
Henry Davis with another HR today...
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Post by tyler3 on May 27, 2021 14:55:34 GMT -5
Damn you Vermontsox1!!
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Post by soxinsf on May 27, 2021 14:56:38 GMT -5
I don’t think going underslot makes any sense given the Red Sox draft position. Maybe it makes sense when you have the first pick of the second or third tier group of prospects but not when you have a shot at one of the top tier of five or six guys. I like the analogy to betting on horse racing. There are form players who always go with one of the top picks, and there are the *I know better than you types* who make long odds and high risk, high reward bets. What type is Bloom? To me, he is on the conservative side except when he isn’t. At number 4, I would expect a conventional selection, which means one of the mooted about big names. The only way they go under slot is if they have a high confidence name that is being overlooked and they are also high on several early second rounders who they guess will be first rounders who get passed through to the second. But, as I said, that would surprise me given the talent that should be available at 4.
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Post by stevedillard on May 27, 2021 14:58:49 GMT -5
From Keith Law's Chat today: So sounds like they will take a pitcher. Because they drafted a hitter last year who is off to a rough start, so that may deter them from drafting a hitter the same.
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Post by 1toolplayer on May 27, 2021 15:08:31 GMT -5
Law's scouting report on two hot Northeast prospects that may go late first or early 2nd round. Subscription-only, but excerpt below of a kid whose family I know, though not well. He's committed to UConn but, well, we'll see: When it comes to the non-velocity factors, however, Mozzicato (90-92FB that's been up to 94mph) has all the edges. He’s left-handed and has a cleaner delivery with lots of physical projection left. He cuts himself off slightly in his landing, so getting to his glove side might be a problem in the long run but right now he can spin a curveball toward a right-handed batter’s back foot to compensate. Petty, meanwhile, has a ton of effort in his delivery, regardless of pitch type. He gets a lot of his velocity from a huge stride toward the plate, which is great, but even with his arm speed it can’t catch up to his landing and he’s frequently late, leading to inconsistent command of both pitches. He falls off very hard to the first-base side after release, and his head moves so much that at one point, he lost his hat after throwing a fastball.
FWIW, I was looking over the Future's League rosters this week, and that's the only summer collegiate league around that allows rising Freshmen to participate, and Mozzicato was on a roster (I want to say it was Worcester) but when I looked today, he is no longer listed. Not a slam dunk, but a small indication that he could be looking to sign and forgo UCONN. There are a few HS players on BAs top 250, Dennis Colleran of North Attleboro (Northeastern), Jackson Linn of Cambridge R&L (Tulane) and Sean Hard of New Jersey (BC) that are on rosters still, and set to participate. The league started last night.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 27, 2021 15:18:26 GMT -5
Every media tidbit about the Red Sox intentions boils down to "Nobody has told me anything at all, but here's what I think a smart team should do..." I don’t think going underslot makes any sense given the Red Sox draft position. Maybe it makes sense when you have the first pick of the second or third tier group of prospects but not when you have a shot at one of the top tier of five or six guys. The thing is, "makeup" is a huge part of eventual MLB success, and makeup is the one thing you can't scout from the stands. You'll see a mention like "has a strong work ethic" in rankings (and hence influencing the mocks) based on public statements made by former coaches, but MLB teams that prioritize makeup are going much deeper than that.
It's possible that one of the players ranked, say 6 to 8 or 9, will actually be at the top of their draft board because they're convinced he's got 70 makeup. It's not that unlikely. We just had a guy retire who went 65th in the draft and was the best player, and that's because he had 80 makeup.
Here's the dream: Carlos Correa but at 4. Not only get one of the four best players in the draft, according to your board, but sign him for, say, 8 slot money. I have no idea who that might be; at least a couple of names the names are pretty obvious (House, Jobe, Frelick), but I don't know which of the HS kids would be serious about going to college and which would be bluffing if they held out for more.
Short version: they could absolutely go underslot a bit if that's the guy who's at the top of their board, that's a credible scenario, and if they turn out to be right, it's magic.
By the same logic, the guy at the top of their board may be much likelier to be available at 4 than we think. It's possible, for instance, that Rocker or Leiter has 70 makeup and, is in their mind, a clear #1. Remember how much Lester over-performed his draft ranking -- that was all makeup. Imagine if Leiter or Rocker exceeded their mean projection by that much.
Personally I have little enthusiasm foreither guy and dream of Davis falling to 4. But whoever they take I'll be excited about, immediately.
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Post by mantush on May 27, 2021 15:33:40 GMT -5
Maybe a stupid question -- and it's potentially been litigated elsewhere -- but wasn't last years draft unique? The team didn't have a second-round pick. If the Sox didn't go underslot in the first, there wouldn't be anywhere else to go underslot to potentially sign a falling talent. That said, I do not think looking at last year's draft actually provides much insight into how this year may be approached. When you look at the Rays in the previous couple of years though, there was 2017 when Bloom's old team had the same pick as the Sox do this year and actually went significantly above slot to grab their guy. So - I think if the Sox value a player highly and he unexpectedly falls to them, for whatever reason - they'll draft him over someone else that they like less but will take less to sign.
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