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2021 MLB Draft
cdj
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Posts: 15,659
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Post by cdj on May 27, 2021 23:14:05 GMT -5
We saw Kopps and I want him as a senior sign
I think he throws cutters, changes, and curves but 86-88 with cut is the bread and butter and he’s annihilated SEC hitters with it all years. Honestly kinda reminds me of Foulke in a way
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Post by tyler3 on May 27, 2021 23:16:11 GMT -5
I think he’s an excellent college pitcher. Hard to disprove that. I do think he will slide though. And if I had to guess all 4 of the elite SSs will go before him…that plus Leiter, Davis…means he’d be at 7….Jobe really could push his way up…. Right now I’d say something like 8 and that’s with nobody cutting a deal with Frelik or Cowser… who knows I guess….
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Post by telson13 on May 28, 2021 1:08:10 GMT -5
I bet we see an online meltdown if they pick Rocker over Leiter lol Me? I’ll happily take either I think people would be surprised but intrigued and ultimately happy with it. Lot of people here were around for the Trey Ball pick so they’re mentally prepared for something like that. That pick is the gift that keeps on giving.
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orion09
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Posts: 1,307
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Post by orion09 on May 28, 2021 1:20:38 GMT -5
He also looks pretty soft physically I have questions about Rocker's fastball velo and command.... but I don't really see soft. The dude does not look like he skips leg day
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Post by jl1947 on May 28, 2021 1:23:13 GMT -5
If you fix Jobe's steep release and suboptimal lower body positioning at the release point (further unlocking his athleticism and creating even more power) you have a pitcher who is already miles ahead of Leiter at comparable stages of their careers. Jobe's spin rate on his slider is out-of-this-world good for a High School pitcher. Both Jobe and Leiter are very athletic, Jobe slightly more so. If not for the HS RHP risk profile, it wouldn't be crazy for the Red Sox to go underslot for Jobe and use the extra 1 - 1.5 million on an aggressive pitch at a hard sign that would otherwise go to college at pick 39. That is, unless one of Davis, Lawlar, or House falls to them. I don't think Leiter falls to 4, and neither will Mayer. Lawlar's early season strikeout numbers may scare some people (a mistake, by the way, I would think) prospects365.com/2020/08/06/2021-mlb-draft-prospects-with-interesting-data/Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS, from the link above: It’s hard to paint an entire picture on Jobe without the entirety of his data, but raw spin rates of 2,500 rpm on the fastball and 3,150 rpm on the slider create a massive foundation for a player development staff to build on. Organically increasing raw spin is extremely difficult, hence the emphasis on pitchers who already possess it at an above average rate. Part of the reason Jobe is such a perfect prospect for a developmental staff is his lower half inefficiencies and un-athletic posture at release, two somewhat easy ways to unlock power and stability in a delivery. From face value, it seems he’s got a relatively steep release, which isn’t ideal at all. Thankfully, he’s far from a finished product from a mechanical standpoint, and the rawness in his delivery is evident.
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Post by telson13 on May 28, 2021 1:42:25 GMT -5
Every media tidbit about the Red Sox intentions boils down to "Nobody has told me anything at all, but here's what I think a smart team should do..." I don’t think going underslot makes any sense given the Red Sox draft position. Maybe it makes sense when you have the first pick of the second or third tier group of prospects but not when you have a shot at one of the top tier of five or six guys. The thing is, "makeup" is a huge part of eventual MLB success, and makeup is the one thing you can't scout from the stands. You'll see a mention like "has a strong work ethic" in rankings (and hence influencing the mocks) based on public statements made by former coaches, but MLB teams that prioritize makeup are going much deeper than that.
It's possible that one of the players ranked, say 6 to 8 or 9, will actually be at the top of their draft board because they're convinced he's got 70 makeup. It's not that unlikely. We just had a guy retire who went 65th in the draft and was the best player, and that's because he had 80 makeup.
Here's the dream: Carlos Correa but at 4. Not only get one of the four best players in the draft, according to your board, but sign him for, say, 8 slot money. I have no idea who that might be; at least a couple of names the names are pretty obvious (House, Jobe, Frelick), but I don't know which of the HS kids would be serious about going to college and which would be bluffing if they held out for more.
Short version: they could absolutely go underslot a bit if that's the guy who's at the top of their board, that's a credible scenario, and if they turn out to be right, it's magic.
By the same logic, the guy at the top of their board may be much likelier to be available at 4 than we think. It's possible, for instance, that Rocker or Leiter has 70 makeup and, is in their mind, a clear #1. Remember how much Lester over-performed his draft ranking -- that was all makeup. Imagine if Leiter or Rocker exceeded their mean projection by that much.
Personally I have little enthusiasm foreither guy and dream of Davis falling to 4. But whoever they take I'll be excited about, immediately.
I get a strong "pitchability" vibe from Leiter. He just seems like he'll become ever more polished. The size/physicality stuff is overrated. For every CC Sabathia there are 20 Ben McDonalds. Leiter has insane spin/rise, and we all know after Koji and Okajima and guys like Daniel Cabrera or 90% of his career Nate Eovaldi that velocity alone doesn't miss bats, especially in the zone. Leiter's also got good command and a deep repertoire, as well as the MLB background, which really does seem to impart a degree of familiarity and comfort for a lot of guys. I definitely prefer him over Rocker, although I sure do like Davis and there's a cadre of SS prospects who should be pushing on the door right around when Bogey might have to move off. It's a good spot to be in. I think what they end up doing really depends on where the talent line separates...if it's 1-2-3 and then the rest, I imagine they go underslot with a guy they really like makeup-wise in the next tier (tangent: makeup is why I *love* Gilberto Jimenez as a prospect...he gets glowing reports, now if he'd only walk more). If a 1-2-3 falls to them, they take him, which represents a "bargain" in and of itself. Screwing up the 4th pick is a really, really big faux pas. If it's kind of a muddle/gradual drop in talent in the top 10, with no clear separation of a small group from the rest...yeah, it seems certain they go underslot for a guy they're really high on, because the allotment difference between 4 and 8-10 is huge. Picking a 60 FV over a 50 is easy. Choosing between 50s is an art. I've been so grumpy with the Sox for 15 months that I really hope they do something impressive, because Bogey and Babyface are the only reason I watch nowadays. I saw all of 5 minutes last year, and when ERod developed myocarditis from COVID I threw my hands up. Guy can't catch a break health-wise. And seeing Mookie sign immediately with LA didn't help either. Not a fan anymore, although he did clarify for me in crystal fashion how much I appreciate Bogey, who clearly sees himself as a Red Sox.
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Post by telson13 on May 28, 2021 1:49:18 GMT -5
I could see Rocker falling a long way. In the first place he's simply not very good. I'm at a loss to understand why he was ever rated so highly. Beyond that he seems like a sweet kid which kid of worries me. I saw a clip of him and he gave the impression his awful outing against Georgia was kind of funny. Now I don't want a pitcher who is shattered by a bad game but I do want a pitcher who is annoyed by a bad game. He also looks pretty soft physically and his dad is just huge which would concern me. He comes across as a happy-go-lucky kid from an upper class family who does not have the kind of killer instinct which benefits a pitcher. That is Kumar Rocker, a happy-go-lucky rich kid who doesn't get fired up and isn't very good. Not wanting Kumar Rocker at #4 is fine, there are certainly at least four players who you could prefer without anyone thinking you are crazy. But COME ON. I get his concerns, perception-wise. I actually get an uneasy feeling with Rocker for *kind* of the same reason. But Pedro used to talk about sitting under a mango tree and got himself taped to a pole on his off day. I can't really think of a half-dozen other sox players in my lifetime, of any stature, who were as frequently goofy. But I can also 100% say without hesitation that he was a pure assassin on his pitching days, and *nobody* else I've seen pitch in my life has come close there. So your point is well-taken.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 28, 2021 3:35:43 GMT -5
Although kinda a serious question cuz I’m not sure Rocker’s celebrity could handle it but…We have guys on here that would love Kumar at 4, guys who are ok with it, and guys who would never do it….I guess to that never do it crowd. Would you take Kumar if you could get him underslot? Like say save a million? Just curious? not sure he’d do it but..I don’t know. I’ve been told not to quote on this. So instead I’ll ask if anyone would like trey ball back? I will respond to this if told I can since I was told what I can and can’t say. Also just to comment on Watson ... I’ve seen high cj abrams comparisons. That’s not a bad player IF those comparisons are true
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,014
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Post by ericmvan on May 28, 2021 6:17:38 GMT -5
The thing is, "makeup" is a huge part of eventual MLB success, and makeup is the one thing you can't scout from the stands. You'll see a mention like "has a strong work ethic" in rankings (and hence influencing the mocks) based on public statements made by former coaches, but MLB teams that prioritize makeup are going much deeper than that.
It's possible that one of the players ranked, say 6 to 8 or 9, will actually be at the top of their draft board because they're convinced he's got 70 makeup. It's not that unlikely. We just had a guy retire who went 65th in the draft and was the best player, and that's because he had 80 makeup.
Here's the dream: Carlos Correa but at 4. Not only get one of the four best players in the draft, according to your board, but sign him for, say, 8 slot money. I have no idea who that might be; at least a couple of names the names are pretty obvious (House, Jobe, Frelick), but I don't know which of the HS kids would be serious about going to college and which would be bluffing if they held out for more.
Short version: they could absolutely go underslot a bit if that's the guy who's at the top of their board, that's a credible scenario, and if they turn out to be right, it's magic.
By the same logic, the guy at the top of their board may be much likelier to be available at 4 than we think. It's possible, for instance, that Rocker or Leiter has 70 makeup and, is in their mind, a clear #1. Remember how much Lester over-performed his draft ranking -- that was all makeup. Imagine if Leiter or Rocker exceeded their mean projection by that much.
Personally I have little enthusiasm foreither guy and dream of Davis falling to 4. But whoever they take I'll be excited about, immediately.
I get a strong "pitchability" vibe from Leiter. He just seems like he'll become ever more polished. The size/physicality stuff is overrated. For every CC Sabathia there are 20 Ben McDonalds. Leiter has insane spin/rise, and we all know after Koji and Okajima and guys like Daniel Cabrera or 90% of his career Nate Eovaldi that velocity alone doesn't miss bats, especially in the zone. Leiter's also got good command and a deep repertoire, as well as the MLB background, which really does seem to impart a degree of familiarity and comfort for a lot of guys. I definitely prefer him over Rocker, although I sure do like Davis and there's a cadre of SS prospects who should be pushing on the door right around when Bogey might have to move off. It's a good spot to be in. I think what they end up doing really depends on where the talent line separates...if it's 1-2-3 and then the rest, I imagine they go underslot with a guy they really like makeup-wise in the next tier (tangent: makeup is why I *love* Gilberto Jimenez as a prospect...he gets glowing reports, now if he'd only walk more). If a 1-2-3 falls to them, they take him, which represents a "bargain" in and of itself. Screwing up the 4th pick is a really, really big faux pas. If it's kind of a muddle/gradual drop in talent in the top 10, with no clear separation of a small group from the rest...yeah, it seems certain they go underslot for a guy they're really high on, because the allotment difference between 4 and 8-10 is huge. Picking a 60 FV over a 50 is easy. Choosing between 50s is an art. I've been so grumpy with the Sox for 15 months that I really hope they do something impressive, because Bogey and Babyface are the only reason I watch nowadays. I saw all of 5 minutes last year, and when ERod developed myocarditis from COVID I threw my hands up. Guy can't catch a break health-wise. And seeing Mookie sign immediately with LA didn't help either. Not a fan anymore, although he did clarify for me in crystal fashion how much I appreciate Bogey, who clearly sees himself as a Red Sox. Good to hear that stuff about Leiter (and to hear from you). I have so much on my plate right now beyond the Sox [*] that for the most part I'm waiting to see who they'll pick rather than fully educating myself on all the candidates. Saves time!
* Working on three books simultaneously (it should be one, but I get ideas), hoping to empty a storage unit by the end of June (having already missed a May goal), heading the programming for the local cinephile screening group, being sole rather than occasional host of the screenings (twice per three weeks) now that COVID is ending, planning to reorganize the living room in conjunction (which includes getting a custom blackout curtain, installing a smart motorized rod assembly for it, redoing the carpeting, fixing some house wiring, comissioning a custom TV stand, and moving bookcases around and repopulating them) ... and dealing with an overwhelming host of unresolved Real Life issues like a lost (but apparently not found) credit card, the one that I use for a dozen automatic payments and do not want to cancel. I should call them today! (he said for the fourth day in a row).
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Post by marrcus on May 28, 2021 13:14:04 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 28, 2021 13:17:12 GMT -5
Baez is unlikely to even be there at 40, and if he falls that far he's likely unsignable. For example, in this week's Callis mock he has him going at 23 to Cleveland.
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Post by jl1947 on May 28, 2021 13:25:41 GMT -5
If he is around at 105 -- no way for the Red Sox to predict that and to have worked out predraft or draft day money-saving deals to accommodate the signing bonus to accomplish the task -- I don't see the Sox being able to sign him then. The inverse is more likely if they have a slight underslot deal at 1.4. Otherwise, they would have to have all huge underslots for at least rounds 5 through 10. The Sox don't have the benefit of compensation picks to make up such a huge war chest other than a significant 1.4 saving.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
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Post by radiohix on May 28, 2021 13:39:12 GMT -5
Watching Leiter vs Ole Miss, not impressive with a fastball all over the place. Give me a hitter with that 4th pick Chaim.
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Post by tyler3 on May 28, 2021 14:24:00 GMT -5
How’s he doing now? I’m just watching stats live but looks like he’s now through five with that bad 2nd inning. Of course that’s not watching the game so…
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 28, 2021 14:28:30 GMT -5
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Post by tyler3 on May 28, 2021 14:36:12 GMT -5
I’d take that ^
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 28, 2021 14:41:34 GMT -5
Not necessarily saying that's the guy I want at 40, but high floor college starter is the exact archetype I want. Get a guy you think has a good chance of being a number 4 starter to bolster pitching depth and maybe even save a little money to take swings later. That and Davis being my #1 preference makes this a nice scenario in my eyes. And that's not coming from a "draft for need" perspective, but starting pitching is always super valuable and it seems like in most drafts there is good value from a BPA perspective on college pitching with no sexy traits at that spot.
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,121
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Post by jimoh on May 28, 2021 14:46:04 GMT -5
Thanks. Interesting that all but two of their 36-44 are college pitchers.
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Post by tyler3 on May 28, 2021 14:47:09 GMT -5
Watching Leiter vs Ole Miss, not impressive with a fastball all over the place. Give me a hitter with that 4th pick Chaim. Leiter back out there for the 7th and struck out the first batter. He had completely turned it around since the 2nd…hope I don’t jinx him
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Post by tyler3 on May 28, 2021 14:56:45 GMT -5
Ahh jinx him I did..gotta a k, hit a guy on a 1-2 count, struck out the next guy, but a steal and a single puts another run on the board, still gutsy performance. That 6 and 2/3, 3 runs…didn’t have his fastball command in the second, then really went on a roll there to include working around an error. Will be interesting to see how he bounces back as he went over 100 pitches.
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Post by tyler3 on May 28, 2021 15:01:16 GMT -5
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Post by dyoungteach on May 28, 2021 16:28:03 GMT -5
Baez is unlikely to even be there at 40, and if he falls that far he's likely unsignable. For example, in this week's Callis mock he has him going at 23 to Cleveland. It’s usually way to early to flush out who will go where or what players will drop how far due to bonus amounts asked for. I had read in years past the tough signs don’t really start coming out for another 2-3 weeks. ( essentially a month to 3 weeks before draft). A draft from 23-40 for a high over slot signing isn’t that big of a drop at all unless he’s just asking for the moon at which point he would drop a ton further.
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Post by tyler3 on May 28, 2021 16:44:57 GMT -5
I kinda like this guy at 40,
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 28, 2021 16:47:33 GMT -5
Baez is unlikely to even be there at 40, and if he falls that far he's likely unsignable. For example, in this week's Callis mock he has him going at 23 to Cleveland. It’s usually way to early to flush out who will go where or what players will drop how far due to bonus amounts asked for. I had read in years past the tough signs don’t really start coming out for another 2-3 weeks. ( essentially a month to 3 weeks before draft). A draft from 23-40 for a high over slot signing isn’t that big of a drop at all unless he’s just asking for the moon at which point he would drop a ton further. He's a Vandy commit projected to go in the first. If he doesn't actually go in the first, he will probably need at least first-round money to not go to school. Fair point that he could fall, but (a) probably not to the fourth, and (b) he'd still need first round money anyway so they'd need to take a haircut elsewhere. Looking at it from the Red Sox perspective, they'd either need to take him at 40 and save money elsewhere (1-4 and/or day 2), or if they take him later than that, save a ton of money at 4 or 40.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 28, 2021 17:02:36 GMT -5
It was only a few weeks ago people on here pretty much universally thought Leiter wouldn’t be there at 4. I’d try to think positively if we draft him.
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