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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by dyoungteach on May 28, 2021 17:05:02 GMT -5
Eric A Longenhagen: Probably a month out of the draft. Some teams’ ideas are creeping into the aether but it’s not like plans are set in stone. Based on the scout chatter from my amateur games yesterday I’d mock Mayer 1 right now
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Post by pasadenasox on May 28, 2021 17:17:38 GMT -5
I'd be happy with either of the two top shortstops, and would be really happy with Henry Davis at 4. I wish I felt free to dream on Rocker or Leiter, but I'm afraid I'm on Team TNSTAAP picking that high.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 28, 2021 17:22:48 GMT -5
I know this isn’t Red Sox related. But wow is it interesting. No idea if it’s just him giving thoughts or if something has been talked about:
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I’d be into trading picks, and it’d be cool for there to be some post-season tournament in which non-playoff teams play for extra picks
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 28, 2021 17:30:28 GMT -5
I kind of hate the tournament idea. You'd be providing fringy teams even more reason to try to tank. Baseball already needs to try to get more teams to try, not fewer.
But yeah, it's stupid as hell you can't trade draft picks. Even just limit it to days 1 and 2, and only pick-for-pick trades.
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Post by iakovos11 on May 28, 2021 17:35:28 GMT -5
I kind of hate the tournament idea. You'd be providing fringy teams even more reason to try to tank. Baseball already needs to try to get more teams to try, not fewer. But yeah, it's stupid as hell you can't trade draft picks. Even just limit it to days 1 and 2, and only pick-for-pick trades. And I can't imagine the players being interested. They had a rough season and now they have play extra games for a draft pick that won't have any impact 2-3 years at best. It's not the NFL or NBA where some of these guys can right in give you a boost (even then, I can't imagine veteran players being interested i that extra wear and tear).
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,659
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Post by cdj on May 28, 2021 17:42:53 GMT -5
Yeahhhh they’re not gonna want to play extra games after a long season for somebody who could possibly take their job in 3 years
Would be neat tho
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Post by dyoungteach on May 28, 2021 18:11:31 GMT -5
I kind of hate the tournament idea. You'd be providing fringy teams even more reason to try to tank. Baseball already needs to try to get more teams to try, not fewer. But yeah, it's stupid as hell you can't trade draft picks. Even just limit it to days 1 and 2, and only pick-for-pick trades. I actually really like the idea. Better teams would get another pick or two is what I see. The really bad teams wouldn’t play for those picks. It would give 4-8 teams ia shot at a reward for being competitive. As for players..... that’s simple to solve. A) teams would/could spend more $$$ ( based off collective bargaining obviously). B) teams split of the revenue generated from those games that goes to players would be greater. And if teams got smart they would start writing base contracts with large incentives for playoff games ( which would include the playoffs foe the extra picks). Suddenly players ree the ally want to make the playoffs as do the teams. ( revenue and $$$$ speaks volumes) Anyways —. I had NEVER heard that anywhere else. And don’t want to drag out this place for a possible discussion
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Post by unitspin on May 28, 2021 18:21:56 GMT -5
Its kind of crazy that the mlb is the only major sports league that does not allow trading draft picks. In the nhl, nba and nfl trades involving draft picks are a common occurrence.
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Post by tyler3 on May 28, 2021 19:31:01 GMT -5
As I said before like this guy at 40 or someone like him (Matt Mikulski). They are 42 and 43 on mlb board right now, guessing they will move up slightly, so within reach. Both are guy who radically kinda reinvented themselves and play for smaller schools. Guys who used to have control issues who now suddenly don’t.
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Post by semsox on May 28, 2021 20:22:29 GMT -5
Throwing it out as a question to the masses, but is there typically this much uncertainty at the top of the draft? Certainly in years with a Harper or Strasburg I'd imagine no, but for other years, is there this much fluidity leading up to the draft? What is the typical net movement in player ranking from earlier mocks to later mocks? Someone like Mayer definitely seemed like a possibility a month ago, but that no longer seems like the case (though it may swing back in the next few weeks!). I'd be curious also in terms of MLB outcome, if there's any correlation to who 'made it' with helium for that player for their respective draft.
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Post by kingstephanos on May 28, 2021 20:40:20 GMT -5
From Eric Longenhagen's Chat today. 1:14 Friends of Chaim: Is Sal Frelick underslot at 4 too much of a stretch? Asking for an entire Greater Boston area 1:15 Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think they have great incentive to go under slot since they don’t have a glut of picks in the comp or anything like that. I think they’re more likely to take a guy from the top tier of five who falls." blogs.fangraphs.com/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-5-28/
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Post by dyoungteach on May 28, 2021 20:43:00 GMT -5
As I said before like this guy at 40 or someone like him (Matt Mikulski). They are 42 and 43 on mlb board right now, guessing they will move up slightly, so within reach. Both are guy who radically kinda reinvented themselves and play for smaller schools. Guys who used to have control issues who now suddenly don’t. I always worry about pitchers who have control issues but then find it before draft. Sky rocket up the draft. Usually those guys end up refinding their control issues later
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Post by James Dunne on May 28, 2021 20:45:41 GMT -5
Throwing it out as a question to the masses, but is there typically this much uncertainty at the top of the draft? Certainly in years with a Harper or Strasburg I'd imagine no, but for other years, is there this much fluidity leading up to the draft? What is the typical net movement in player ranking from earlier mocks to later mocks? Someone like Mayer definitely seemed like a possibility a month ago, but that no longer seems like the case (though it may swing back in the next few weeks!). I'd be curious also in terms of MLB outcome, if there's any correlation to who 'made it' with helium for that player for their respective draft. While most drafts don't have a clear #1 like a Strasburg, Harper, Rutschman, I do agree that it's rare to have as many as like five guys who reasonable people think is the best player. That's why I think this idea that the draft isn't strong at the top and therefore the Red Sox should maybe go the signability route is off the mark--the guy they get at #4 may very well be the one who they think is the best player available in the whole draft. Like, Leiter isn't the prospect that goes at #1 most years but I think he's awfully good in comparison to #4 picks historically. I also think the uncertainty is in large part because there wasn't a season last year. Henry Davis was off to a good start and probably establishes himself a year earlier, but the 2020 season ended before conference play even started. Guys like Fabian and Del Castillo seemed like they'd be in the mix at #4 back in March. I really like the question about helium guys, it probably deserves a bit more research than I can give it right now. But Benintendi was definitely a guy whose stock rose dramatically in the month before the draft and he turned out to be a good pick.
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Post by patford on May 28, 2021 20:48:05 GMT -5
Throwing it out as a question to the masses, but is there typically this much uncertainty at the top of the draft? Certainly in years with a Harper or Strasburg I'd imagine no, but for other years, is there this much fluidity leading up to the draft? What is the typical net movement in player ranking from earlier mocks to later mocks? Someone like Mayer definitely seemed like a possibility a month ago, but that no longer seems like the case (though it may swing back in the next few weeks!). I'd be curious also in terms of MLB outcome, if there's any correlation to who 'made it' with helium for that player for their respective draft. It is kind of odd. Go back to the first page of this topic and you won't see Davis or Mayer in the top ten.
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Post by wOBA Fett on May 28, 2021 21:43:33 GMT -5
Throwing it out as a question to the masses, but is there typically this much uncertainty at the top of the draft? Certainly in years with a Harper or Strasburg I'd imagine no, but for other years, is there this much fluidity leading up to the draft? What is the typical net movement in player ranking from earlier mocks to later mocks? Someone like Mayer definitely seemed like a possibility a month ago, but that no longer seems like the case (though it may swing back in the next few weeks!). I'd be curious also in terms of MLB outcome, if there's any correlation to who 'made it' with helium for that player for their respective draft. It is kind of odd. Go back to the first page of this topic and you won't see Davis or Mayer in the top ten. What the hell happened to Luke Leto, SS, Portage Central HS (MI), 45 FV?
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Post by pedroelgrande on May 28, 2021 22:18:52 GMT -5
Throwing it out as a question to the masses, but is there typically this much uncertainty at the top of the draft? Certainly in years with a Harper or Strasburg I'd imagine no, but for other years, is there this much fluidity leading up to the draft? What is the typical net movement in player ranking from earlier mocks to later mocks? Someone like Mayer definitely seemed like a possibility a month ago, but that no longer seems like the case (though it may swing back in the next few weeks!). I'd be curious also in terms of MLB outcome, if there's any correlation to who 'made it' with helium for that player for their respective draft. Well maybe not recently where most publications maybe don’t have the exact order the players are picked but usually hit on the names in the general rage of let’s say the top 10. After the middle of the first round things get more volatile. But there used to be a time where a guy in the top 10 would go 30th. When there was no cap on signing bonuses, “sign ability” used to be a huge part of the equation for most teams. I don’t think it’s as uncertain as it seems we now have 7/8 guys for the top 5 picks maybe we don’t know the order but it’s pretty consistent across the board. I think what is creating the uncertainty is that the draft was pushed back, in a normal year we’d be much closer to the draft and would be hearing team specific rumors which dissipates some of the uncertainty so I expect as we get closer to draft day we’ll have more certainty at the top.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
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Post by radiohix on May 29, 2021 10:45:09 GMT -5
I was listening to a Texas Rangers Podcast and the guest was Evan Grant, Texas' beat writer for the Dallas Morning News who's been profiling the high profile draft candidates, and he said among a few things that he thinks that the Rangers FO could target draftees that can climb through the farm very quickly considering that their goal is to compete in 2023 so he thinks that they'll either go Davis or the Vandy pitchers that they like A LOT according to him.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
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Post by radiohix on May 29, 2021 11:16:58 GMT -5
Huge grain of salt because it’s High School competition, but Watson’s putting up a .519 / .611 / .962 (1.574 OPS) in the highest classification of North Carolina high school sports. When Jordyn Adams (Angels number 3 prospect) went 17th overall to the Angels in 2018 for an over slot bonus, he had hit .453 / .602 / .640 (1.242 OPS) in the same division of High School ball. I wouldn’t be mad at all if they picked Watson if they can save like 1 million an a half in bonus money.
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Post by incandenza on May 29, 2021 11:40:41 GMT -5
Huge grain of salt because it’s High School competition, but Watson’s putting up a .519 / .611 / .962 (1.574 OPS) in the highest classification of North Carolina high school sports. When Jordyn Adams (Angels number 3 prospect) went 17th overall to the Angels in 2018 for an over slot bonus, he had hit .453 / .602 / .640 (1.242 OPS) in the same division of High School ball. I wouldn’t be mad at all if they picked Watson if they can save like 1 million an a half in bonus money. There's a quote way up thread, I believe, about how there are concerns about Watson's make-up because he tends to get into it with umps and be hard on himself. But looked at just slightly differently, those sound like signs of great make-up - he's passionate, cares about his performance, and sets high standards for himself. I've wondered about him as a guy the Sox might like as potentially the best player available at #4, and all the more so if he could be signed underslot.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 29, 2021 11:52:00 GMT -5
It is kind of odd. Go back to the first page of this topic and you won't see Davis or Mayer in the top ten. What the hell happened to Luke Leto, SS, Portage Central HS (MI), 45 FV? My understanding on Leto is that he is a pretty firm LSU commit. His contract ask exceeds $1.5 million and he didn’t perform quite as well on the summer ball cirques LAST summer/fall. I’ve been quietly interested to see if he’s picked and where given the chatter I heard about him both early and then late.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 29, 2021 11:54:24 GMT -5
I was listening to a Texas Rangers Podcast and the guest was Evan Grant, Texas' beat writer for the Dallas Morning News who's been profiling the high profile draft candidates, and he said among a few things that he thinks that the Rangers FO could target draftees that can climb through the farm very quickly considering that their goal is to compete in 2023 so he thinks that they'll either go Davis or the Vandy pitchers that they like A LOT according to him. I’ve read this also. And Texas has a new ballpark and have drafted college guys lately in draft. ( jung/foscue/etc). I keep hoping pirates strike a deal and Texas goes college. Because I highly doubt Detroit goes pitcher.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 29, 2021 11:56:11 GMT -5
Huge grain of salt because it’s High School competition, but Watson’s putting up a .519 / .611 / .962 (1.574 OPS) in the highest classification of North Carolina high school sports. When Jordyn Adams (Angels number 3 prospect) went 17th overall to the Angels in 2018 for an over slot bonus, he had hit .453 / .602 / .640 (1.242 OPS) in the same division of High School ball. I wouldn’t be mad at all if they picked Watson if they can save like 1 million an a half in bonus money. There's a quote way up thread, I believe, about how there are concerns about Watson's make-up because he tends to get into it with umps and be hard on himself. But looked at just slightly differently, those sound like signs of great make-up - he's passionate, cares about his performance, and sets high standards for himself. I've wondered about him as a guy the Sox might like as potentially the best player available at #4, and all the more so if he could be signed underslot. If they could get Watson at some under slot deal. ( even $700k). Ild grab it run and dance. Provided one of the two star shortstops aren’t on the board. I’ve read many cj abrams comps to him. That is a great comp
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Post by soxinsf on May 29, 2021 12:22:04 GMT -5
I was listening to a Texas Rangers Podcast and the guest was Evan Grant, Texas' beat writer for the Dallas Morning News who's been profiling the high profile draft candidates, and he said among a few things that he thinks that the Rangers FO could target draftees that can climb through the farm very quickly considering that their goal is to compete in 2023 so he thinks that they'll either go Davis or the Vandy pitchers that they like A LOT according to him. I’ve read this also. And Texas has a new ballpark and have drafted college guys lately in draft. ( jung/foscue/etc). I keep hoping pirates strike a deal and Texas goes college. Because I highly doubt Detroit goes pitcher. Assume, for a minute or so, that the Vandy pair and Davis go 1, 2, 3. What the Sox are left with are HS SS or a lower rated, and one hopes, and underslot pick. Is there any consensus about what college player would be the alternate next good choice if the Sox do not want to take a HS player here?
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Post by wOBA Fett on May 29, 2021 13:14:23 GMT -5
Interesting link to the original MLB.com Top 20 from last June: www.mlb.com/news/top-2021-mlb-draft-prospects1. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt 2. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt 3. Brady House, 3B/RHP, Winder-Barrow HS (Ga.) 4. Jud Fabian, OF, Florida 5. Christian Little, RHP, Christian Brothers HS (Mo.) 6. Braylon Bishop, OF, Arkansas HS (Ark.) 7. Matt McLain, SS/OF, UCLA 8. Luke Leto, SS/RHP, Portage Central HS (Mich.) 9. Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami 10. Tyree Reed, OF, American Canyon HS (Calif.) 11. Izaac Pacheco, SS/3B, Friendswood HS (Tex.) 12. Alex Binelas, 3B, Louisville 13. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Calif.) 14. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss 15. Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU 16. Ian Moller, C, Wahlert HS (Iowa) 17. Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State 18. Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College 19. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep HS (Texas) 20. Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama
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Post by tyler3 on May 29, 2021 13:30:19 GMT -5
Huge grain of salt because it’s High School competition, but Watson’s putting up a .519 / .611 / .962 (1.574 OPS) in the highest classification of North Carolina high school sports. When Jordyn Adams (Angels number 3 prospect) went 17th overall to the Angels in 2018 for an over slot bonus, he had hit .453 / .602 / .640 (1.242 OPS) in the same division of High School ball. I wouldn’t be mad at all if they picked Watson if they can save like 1 million an a half in bonus money. There's a quote way up thread, I believe, about how there are concerns about Watson's make-up because he tends to get into it with umps and be hard on himself. But looked at just slightly differently, those sound like signs of great make-up - he's passionate, cares about his performance, and sets high standards for himself. I've wondered about him as a guy the Sox might like as potentially the best player available at #4, and all the more so if he could be signed underslot. His work ethic is apparently through the roof. Great pull by the way above going through old NC high school numbers. Great find:)
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