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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jun 1, 2021 11:30:29 GMT -5
The "Red Sox have gotten 5.5 WAR from their last 11 first rd SP, and 4.5 of that from Barnes" is a real kick in the balls. Give me a prep SS Pretty rough, but maybe not as bad as it looks. Their last 3 were Houck, Groome, and Kopech; Houck looks promising, Groome is TBD, and Kopech helped them get Sale. And I don't know how relevant it is in 2021 that they whiffed on guys like Bryan Price and Henry Owens a decade ago.
Let's not leave Trey Ball out of this. Him and Groome cost the most equity, obviously Ball is long gone, and it will be at least 6 years from when he was drafted to receive anything in terms of production from Groome.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 1, 2021 11:49:09 GMT -5
Pretty rough, but maybe not as bad as it looks. Their last 3 were Houck, Groome, and Kopech; Houck looks promising, Groome is TBD, and Kopech helped them get Sale. And I don't know how relevant it is in 2021 that they whiffed on guys like Bryan Price and Henry Owens a decade ago.
Let's not leave Trey Ball out of this. Him and Groome cost the most equity, obviously Ball is long gone, and it will be at least 6 years from when he was drafted to receive anything in terms of production from Groome. Yeah, Ball is certainly the biggest whiff of all - and I am very much on the record with the view that they should not take a high school pitcher at #4! But I wouldn't take their draft history as any reason that they should pass on Rocker or Leiter, if one of them is the best player available. (I'd prefer Davis, Mayer, or Lawlar myself, but they might go 1-2-3.)
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Post by foreverred9 on Jun 1, 2021 12:08:09 GMT -5
Pretty impressive, Southington is 19-1 and the top seed in the top division for the state tournament, Berlin is 17-3 and the #2 seed in the second division. South Windsor and Bristol aren't having great years. He also dominated Manchester and Glastonbury prior to these no hitters, 13-7 and 14-6 and in the top division. His other start was against Conard (half of West Hartford), who didn't have a great year. He's pitching today at 3:30 in Manchester if anyone in the CT area is interested in seeing him.
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,121
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Post by jimoh on Jun 1, 2021 17:55:38 GMT -5
Prospects Live Red Sox Draft Preview The "Red Sox have gotten 5.5 WAR from their last 11 first rd SP, and 4.5 of that from Barnes" is a real kick in the balls. Give me a prep SS How much WAR have they gotten from Nick Yorke, Cameron Cannon, Michael Chavis, Casey Kelly and Ryan Dent?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 1, 2021 18:01:31 GMT -5
The "Red Sox have gotten 5.5 WAR from their last 11 first rd SP, and 4.5 of that from Barnes" is a real kick in the balls. Give me a prep SS How much WAR have they gotten from Nick Yorke, Cameron Cannon, Michael Chavis, Casey Kelly and Ryan Dent? This... is sarcastic, yes? EDIT: Huh, so even if so, check this out: www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=BOS&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_roundThey haven't drafted poorly, but as far as the first round, since 2006 (2005 being an absolute jackpot), it's basically JBJ, Benintendi ... Barnes and Bard. Weird. Would be interesting to see what the hit rate is for other teams though. Like look at the Rays ( www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=TBD&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round - basically just Snell since Price and Longoria) and Yankees ( www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=NYY&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round - not much other than Judge). In conclusion, the Draft is a land of contrasts.
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,121
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Post by jimoh on Jun 1, 2021 18:12:22 GMT -5
How much WAR have they gotten from Nick Yorke, Cameron Cannon, Michael Chavis, Casey Kelly and Ryan Dent? This... is sarcastic, yes? Yes, sarcastic; the quoted stat from that video that they haven't gotten much WAR out of picking starting pitchers in the first round is as misleading and useless as the stat that they haven't gotten much WAR (yet) out of picking middle-infielders. That they struck out on Ball, picked some guys who didn't work late in the first round, and have not got much yet out of Houck and Groome is not an argument against possibly picking Leiter or Rocker. There are arguments against Leiter and Rocker, but "their previous first SP picks have not worked out" is not one of them Also, the "fact" that they quote on the graphic right above the stat on WAR on first round pitchers says they have not picked this high since they had the first pick in 1976--I think a typo for 1966.
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,121
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Post by jimoh on Jun 1, 2021 18:39:04 GMT -5
They haven't drafted poorly, but as far as the first round, since 2006 (2005 being an absolute jackpot), it's basically JBJ, Benintendi ... Barnes and Bard. Weird. [...] Also Kopech got you half or a third of Sale. That was a successful pick for the Sox.
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 1, 2021 19:20:52 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 1, 2021 19:21:37 GMT -5
Was just going to post that clip - not sure if Watson is in play at 4, but he's got a real sweet swing.
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 1, 2021 19:28:22 GMT -5
That’s kinda the thing with him…the swing would need, like no work. It’s perfect. He’s a great athlete. There was talk of, I don’t know adjusting his aggressive approach….and the fact that he’s 5’11”. I think he’s an option for us at slight discount. I’d love to have him and the upside he and House have are insane, though they both have different ways of getting to it.
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 1, 2021 19:30:58 GMT -5
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Post by unitspin on Jun 1, 2021 19:34:57 GMT -5
The red sox picking at #4 is a little different then taking a stab at a pitcher in the 20s. Ppl are acting like Leiter and Rocker could not become Bauer and Cole.
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 1, 2021 19:41:25 GMT -5
Everyone here knows I like Leiter as a prospect, everyone here also knows I’m kinda the low man on Rocker. If it came down to something like Leiter, Watson, or House, I’d be conflicted. Hell im even a sucker for Jobe. I don’t think there is no way you ever pick a pitcher in the top 5. I just think this years college pitching crop is super thin, that’s all.
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 1, 2021 19:43:47 GMT -5
Watson has now equaled Lawlar’s yearly home run total.
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 1, 2021 19:58:26 GMT -5
Nope, now he’s at 5. 1 more than Lawlar’s yearly total.
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 1, 2021 19:59:55 GMT -5
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 1, 2021 20:24:28 GMT -5
The red sox picking at #4 is a little different then taking a stab at a pitcher in the 20s. Ppl are acting like Leiter and Rocker could not become Bauer and Cole. Ummmmmmm.......
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Post by jdog2020 on Jun 1, 2021 22:13:04 GMT -5
Everyone here knows I like Leiter as a prospect, everyone here also knows I’m kinda the low man on Rocker. If it came down to something like Leiter, Watson, or House, I’d be conflicted. Hell im even a sucker for Jobe. I don’t think there is no way you ever pick a pitcher in the top 5. I just think this years college pitching crop is super thin, that’s all. As much as I like Jobe, Leiter, is the only pitcher I would consider at 4. I'm not as high on House as others. I rank the current shortstop crop from Lawler, Mayer, Watson. I have a slight man crush on Henry Davis. My draft board would start with Lawler, then followed by Davis, Mayer, Leiter, Watson, Jobe. It's nice to have options!!
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 1, 2021 22:44:19 GMT -5
If It goes Mayer/Davis/Lawlar in the first 3 picks I wouldn’t mind Watson at 4 now
Add him to the list!
Hell w that swing I may like him more than Lawlar...it so damn pretty
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 1, 2021 23:01:03 GMT -5
Watson is interesting because he’s kinda the missing link when considering the weaknesses of the top three SSs. If you said yeah I like Lawlar but want more power with the 4th pick. And I like House but I want a guy with a better chance to stick at SS, and I like Mayer but would like somebody with a bit more speed there. Well than Watson’s your guy. Some have wondered if the hit tool is comparable to say Lawlar or Mayer. Well he crushed the showcases last fall and is hitting over .500 with 5 bombs and 0 strikeouts this spring and is considerably younger than Lawlar. His swing needs 0, absolutely 0 adjustments. From the left side….if the kid was over 6 ft tall we wouldn’t have a shot at him.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 1, 2021 23:12:51 GMT -5
Since we're all doing something of a mock draft, I'll do my top 4 as to who I think goes where:
1) Pirates - Mayer 2) Rangers - Lawlor 3) Tigers - Leiter 4) Red Sox - Rocker
I think it will be that the Sox tanked for Kumar, just as we were all saying a year ago. lol
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 1, 2021 23:55:45 GMT -5
1) Mayer 2) Lawlar 3) Leiter 4) Watson 5) House 6) Davis 7) Jobe 8) Rocker 9) Frelick 10) McLain
Lawlar being local to Texas and the tigers just loving Mayer makes me think they will be in the top 3. If Leiter holds serve its hard to see him getting out of top 3. I’m a fan of Davis but he had a rough couple weeks by his standards to finish the season (before his 2 playoff games) and that brought his average down about 20 points and strikeouts suddenly shot up. Still an incredible season but I think his detractors who said that catching will wear down his strength based swing offensive profile did get a little ammunition. Still smoked 3 homers to cap the season. The orioles love Watson and House. I think Rockers ceiling is more like 6 (considering Orioles recent history with pitchers in 1st round) and I think Jobe goes before Rocker. You could put Cowser in for Frelick or McLain at 9 or 10.
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,121
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Post by jimoh on Jun 2, 2021 5:20:53 GMT -5
Interesting, detailed long discussion of Watson "Watson likely represents the biggest swing between boom and bust in the draft. With arguably the highest overall ceiling comes a devastatingly low floor for a prospect being considered as high as Arizona is selecting at #6. The appeal in drafting Khalil Watson comes in the idea of drafting the future of the franchise. With that, comes the extreme challenge of developing multiple tools and being patient with him. Furthermore, it comes with teaching him to be patient with himself and the process. Any team selecting Watson needs to be sure that they possess the right kind of coaching in the developmental pipeline to help him get the most out of his potential." "On one hand, he’s a perennial all-star that the team can build a roster around. On the other hand, he’s Chris Owings" (but LHH). Others compare him to Lindor. www.azsnakepit.com/2021/5/27/22455002/2021-arizona-diamondbacks-draft-preview-khalil-watson
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Post by philarhody on Jun 2, 2021 5:51:34 GMT -5
Aside from reputation, not sure why House is being considered as high as he is. His swing is horrendous.
On the flip side of that, Khalil Watson’s swing is niiice
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 2, 2021 6:36:13 GMT -5
Passing on a pitcher might be the right choice. Using the Trey Ball pick eight years ago or the Bryan Price pick 14 years ago to justify passing on a pitcher is really foolish.
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