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2021 MLB Draft
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
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Post by radiohix on Jun 2, 2021 7:26:01 GMT -5
That’s kinda the thing with him… the swing would need, like no work. It’s perfect. He’s a great athlete. There was talk of, I don’t know adjusting his aggressive approach….and the fact that he’s 5’11”. I think he’s an option for us at slight discount. I’d love to have him and the upside he and House have are insane, though they both have different ways of getting to it. The barrel stays through the zone exceptionally long which is always good, but his hands are really high in the pre-load stage, along with his back elbow being particularly high. The drop in both those areas is what brings the bat to contact, but could limit his ability to cover the entire strike zone. Don't get me wrong, the bat speed and the torque produced are absolutely elite, but it’s not like I’ve watched a ton of in-game video from him, so I can’t give you any kind of evaluation of his pitch selection and spin recognition skills. Those two latter skills factor greatly in a hit tool evaluation, so I’m not going to throw a grade on there. Some outlets have put a 60 FV on his hitting, while some are more pessimistic in giving him a 45 FV hit tool. If the Red Sox are comfortable with him at 4th overall, it means that their scouts will have bought fully in on the 60 hit tool projection. I'm on record for being a Watson fan and having no problems with the team drafting him but there's a lot of work to be done with him and I trust this organization and its coaching staff* in making him reach that ceiling. * It's a different story when it comes to drafting and developing pitchers lol
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 2, 2021 8:49:42 GMT -5
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
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Post by radiohix on Jun 2, 2021 9:06:59 GMT -5
Man, I love this time of the year when vermontsox does his thing and brings those nuggets. You know that the Draft is around the corner. You're the best VT!
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Post by incandenza on Jun 2, 2021 10:40:21 GMT -5
Interesting, detailed long discussion of Watson "Watson likely represents the biggest swing between boom and bust in the draft. With arguably the highest overall ceiling comes a devastatingly low floor for a prospect being considered as high as Arizona is selecting at #6. The appeal in drafting Khalil Watson comes in the idea of drafting the future of the franchise. With that, comes the extreme challenge of developing multiple tools and being patient with him. Furthermore, it comes with teaching him to be patient with himself and the process. Any team selecting Watson needs to be sure that they possess the right kind of coaching in the developmental pipeline to help him get the most out of his potential." "On one hand, he’s a perennial all-star that the team can build a roster around. On the other hand, he’s Chris Owings" (but LHH). Others compare him to Lindor. www.azsnakepit.com/2021/5/27/22455002/2021-arizona-diamondbacks-draft-preview-khalil-watsonThat site has great write-ups on a bunch of guys - Mayer, House, Frelick, Jobe, and Madden, with Rocker to come.
ADD: The write-up of Jobe is a real five-napkin drooler. The discussion of his slider is especially great. I still couldn't bring myself to want a HS pitcher when at least two of Davis, Mayer, Lawlar, Rocker, and Leiter will still be on the board, but if the Red Sox were picking just a few spots lower I could get pretty excited about him.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 2, 2021 13:28:17 GMT -5
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jun 2, 2021 13:33:59 GMT -5
Prospects Live Red Sox Draft Preview The "Red Sox have gotten 5.5 WAR from their last 11 first rd SP, and 4.5 of that from Barnes" is a real kick in the balls. Give me a prep SS To be clear, I'm not saying don't draft a pitcher because of past mistakes, im saying I want a SS because I think those prep kids are really friggin good
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 2, 2021 13:58:40 GMT -5
Glad to know they seem to be Leiter > Rocker. Interesting to hear that Rocker's signability might be a concern.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 2, 2021 19:19:24 GMT -5
Latest mock from Jonathan Mayo: 1. Pirates: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, Calif.) 2. Rangers: Henry Davis, C, Louisville 3. Tigers: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt 5. Orioles: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (Winder, Ga.) 6. D-backs: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt 7. Royals: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (N.C.) HS 8. Rockies: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (Oklahoma City) 9. Angels: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS (Lewisberry, Pa.) 10. Mets: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-june-2?t=mlb-draft-coverage
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 2, 2021 19:25:36 GMT -5
Latest mock from Jonathan Mayo: 1. Pirates: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, Calif.) 2. Rangers: Henry Davis, C, Louisville 3. Tigers: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt 5. Orioles: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (Winder, Ga.) 6. D-backs: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt 7. Royals: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (N.C.) HS 8. Rockies: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (Oklahoma City) 9. Angels: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS (Lewisberry, Pa.) 10. Mets: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-june-2?t=mlb-draft-coverageJust to add spice, from same mock. 7. Royals: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (N.C.) HS I started hearing some buzz about him creeping up into the Top 5, as he’s gone off at the plate of late.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 2, 2021 20:56:20 GMT -5
Glad to know they seem to be Leiter > Rocker. Interesting to hear that Rocker's signability might be a concern. I think what he's saying is that signability might become a concern if he falls past #8. The bonus slots fall pretty rapidly in the top 10.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 2, 2021 22:03:17 GMT -5
Khalil Watson could definitely impress in a private workout setting for some teams. Will be interesting if we find out who the Red Sox workout privately.
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 2, 2021 22:12:28 GMT -5
Khalil Watson could definitely impress in a private workout setting for some teams. Will be interesting if we find out who the Red Sox workout privately. Honestly with how secretive Chaim and company are, they probably have some Men in Black stuff worked out where even the kids don’t remember working out for the Red Sox.
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Post by marrcus on Jun 2, 2021 23:33:50 GMT -5
I would kind of find it hard to believe that Texas would select standout college C Davis over perhaps the top ss in draft, in-state pick J.Lawlar but who knows?
Lawlor between inj and COVID seems to have played very little the last two years but has been a star on the showcase circuit. He's been raised by a single white mom and supposedly has the intangibles that when added to his projectable frame, speed and hitting skills look very attractive as a high pick that isn't going to miss. Yes i hope he's around at #4.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 3, 2021 0:18:04 GMT -5
Glad to know they seem to be Leiter > Rocker. Interesting to hear that Rocker's signability might be a concern. I think what he's saying is that signability might become a concern if he falls past #8. The bonus slots fall pretty rapidly in the top 10. Yeah I understood the distinction, was still an interesting nugget I hadn't heard yet. Not something you typically hear with college guys.
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Post by chr31ter on Jun 3, 2021 6:20:05 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel on the top of the draft: The Pirates (No. 1 pick) are believed to be down to Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer, with price playing a big part in their decision -- with Jack Leiter and/or Henry Davis as long-shot options. The Rangers (No. 2) are generally seen to prefer Leiter and Davis, but it appears they haven't made any firm decisions yet, so it's early. The Tigers (No. 3) are known to love Mayer and they've always loved SEC power pitchers, so Leiter is likely second on their board, but there's a split in the industry on who'd they take if those players go 1-2. Sources have suggested Lawlar, Kumar Rocker, Brady House, and, with some late momentum, Jobe. Boston (No. 4) has long been tied to Rocker, but I don't know if that is to be believed; I'm buying into Davis links much more. www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31553650/kiley-mcdaniel-2021-mlb-draft-rankings-30-two-shortstops-lead-race-next-month-top-pick
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Post by Smittyw on Jun 3, 2021 6:59:03 GMT -5
I absolutely trust the Sox FO to make the right call, but man, I'm imagining the uproar if we pass on any of Lawlar/Mayer/Leiter/Davis to take Rocker.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 3, 2021 7:09:01 GMT -5
I absolutely trust the Sox FO to make the right call, but man, I'm imagining the uproar if we pass on any of Lawlar/Mayer/Leiter/Davis to take Rocker. If anyone is taken, who was in any of the mocks lower than someone left on the board, someone is going to be unhappy with the pick. I don't view these mocks as a top prospect list, theres some fluidity between guys based on risk, bonus demands, and different scouting perspective between teams etc. and I think that is the problem some time. Not all of the time, but sometimes I feel that people see a guy being mocked at a certain position and they get the false belief that they're better than the guys beneath them. That's not concertely true, especially at the top of this draft.
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Post by Smittyw on Jun 3, 2021 7:23:48 GMT -5
I absolutely trust the Sox FO to make the right call, but man, I'm imagining the uproar if we pass on any of Lawlar/Mayer/Leiter/Davis to take Rocker. If anyone is taken, who was in any of the mocks lower than someone left on the board, someone is going to be unhappy with the pick. I don't view these mocks as a top prospect list, theres some fluidity between guys based on risk, bonus demands, and different scouting perspective between teams etc. and I think that is the problem some time. Not all of the time, but sometimes I feel that people see a guy being mocked at a certain position and they get the false belief that they're better than the guys beneath them. That's not concertely true, especially at the top of this draft. Oh, no doubt. I just mean I've gotten the general impression that, while the ceiling is certainly there, Rocker comes with more warts and/or higher risk than those four (or is perceived that way at this point, at least). I know I'll be incredibly excited to add whoever they pick to the system.
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 3, 2021 7:36:20 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel on the top of the draft: The Pirates (No. 1 pick) are believed to be down to Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer, with price playing a big part in their decision -- with Jack Leiter and/or Henry Davis as long-shot options. The Rangers (No. 2) are generally seen to prefer Leiter and Davis, but it appears they haven't made any firm decisions yet, so it's early. The Tigers (No. 3) are known to love Mayer and they've always loved SEC power pitchers, so Leiter is likely second on their board, but there's a split in the industry on who'd they take if those players go 1-2. Sources have suggested Lawlar, Kumar Rocker, Brady House, and, with some late momentum, Jobe. Boston (No. 4) has long been tied to Rocker, but I don't know if that is to be believed; I'm buying into Davis links much more. www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31553650/kiley-mcdaniel-2021-mlb-draft-rankings-30-two-shortstops-lead-race-next-month-top-pickKiley for most part has his ear to the ground. ( my way of saying he can be trusted when he shares information) Also interesting to see the lack of information ties to Boston again. Just another source that written between the lines says “ we have no clue what they are really thinking or interested in”.
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Post by chr31ter on Jun 3, 2021 7:41:20 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel on the top of the draft: The Pirates (No. 1 pick) are believed to be down to Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer, with price playing a big part in their decision -- with Jack Leiter and/or Henry Davis as long-shot options. The Rangers (No. 2) are generally seen to prefer Leiter and Davis, but it appears they haven't made any firm decisions yet, so it's early. The Tigers (No. 3) are known to love Mayer and they've always loved SEC power pitchers, so Leiter is likely second on their board, but there's a split in the industry on who'd they take if those players go 1-2. Sources have suggested Lawlar, Kumar Rocker, Brady House, and, with some late momentum, Jobe. Boston (No. 4) has long been tied to Rocker, but I don't know if that is to be believed; I'm buying into Davis links much more. www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31553650/kiley-mcdaniel-2021-mlb-draft-rankings-30-two-shortstops-lead-race-next-month-top-pickKiley for most part has his ear to the ground. ( my way of saying he can be trusted when he shares information) Also interesting to see the lack of information ties to Boston again. Just another source that written between the lines says “ we have no clue what they are really thinking or interested in”. For what it's worth, Buster Olney tweeted out that McDaniel's information matches what he's heard from other teams regarding the first few picks.
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Post by orion09 on Jun 3, 2021 14:55:53 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel on the top of the draft: The Pirates (No. 1 pick) are believed to be down to Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer, with price playing a big part in their decision -- with Jack Leiter and/or Henry Davis as long-shot options. The Rangers (No. 2) are generally seen to prefer Leiter and Davis, but it appears they haven't made any firm decisions yet, so it's early. The Tigers (No. 3) are known to love Mayer and they've always loved SEC power pitchers, so Leiter is likely second on their board, but there's a split in the industry on who'd they take if those players go 1-2. Sources have suggested Lawlar, Kumar Rocker, Brady House, and, with some late momentum, Jobe. Boston (No. 4) has long been tied to Rocker, but I don't know if that is to be believed; I'm buying into Davis links much more. www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31553650/kiley-mcdaniel-2021-mlb-draft-rankings-30-two-shortstops-lead-race-next-month-top-pickJust for fun, if we assume this is all true, here are the 4 most likely outcomes: Pick | Draft A | Draft B | Draft C | Draft D | 1 | Lawler | Lawler | Mayer | Mayer | 2 | Davis | Leiter | Leiter | Davis | 3 | Mayer | Mayer | Lawler | Leiter | 4 | Leiter | Davis | Davis | Lawler |
So I guess the conclusion we would draw is that Mayer is very unlikely to fall to us and Davis is our most likely pick. That sounds about right.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,015
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 4, 2021 3:05:50 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel on the top of the draft: The Pirates (No. 1 pick) are believed to be down to Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer, with price playing a big part in their decision -- with Jack Leiter and/or Henry Davis as long-shot options. The Rangers (No. 2) are generally seen to prefer Leiter and Davis, but it appears they haven't made any firm decisions yet, so it's early. The Tigers (No. 3) are known to love Mayer and they've always loved SEC power pitchers, so Leiter is likely second on their board, but there's a split in the industry on who'd they take if those players go 1-2. Sources have suggested Lawlar, Kumar Rocker, Brady House, and, with some late momentum, Jobe. Boston (No. 4) has long been tied to Rocker, but I don't know if that is to be believed; I'm buying into Davis links much more. www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31553650/kiley-mcdaniel-2021-mlb-draft-rankings-30-two-shortstops-lead-race-next-month-top-pickJust for fun, if we assume this is all true, here are the 4 most likely outcomes: Pick | Draft A | Draft B | Draft C | Draft D | 1 | Lawler | Lawler | Mayer | Mayer | 2 | Davis | Leiter | Leiter | Davis | 3 | Mayer | Mayer | Lawler | Leiter | 4 | Leiter | Davis | Davis | Lawler |
So I guess the conclusion we would draw is that Mayer is very unlikely to fall to us and Davis is our most likely pick. That sounds about right. In scenario C, the Tigers might surprise with Rocker, House, or Jobe, which would give us a choice between Davis and Lawler. That would be the most interesting scenario, for sure.
And a lot of people can't see the Rangers passing on Lawler, so that's another scenario where we grab Davis.
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Post by justen on Jun 4, 2021 16:45:16 GMT -5
Does no one else here love future superstar catchers much as I do? Or am I just completely missing the ball and just too in love with Davis. Are Leiter n Rocker really generational? Maybe one of the shortstops but I just feel like catchers like Davis are kinda rare. Am I just buying into helium? Y'all are smarter than I am.
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 4, 2021 17:06:37 GMT -5
Does no one else here love future superstar catchers much as I do? Or am I just completely missing the ball and just too in love with Davis. Are Leiter n Rocker really generational? Maybe one of the shortstops but I just feel like catchers like Davis are kinda rare. Am I just buying into helium? Y'all are smarter than I am. I mean, just about everyone likes him. I think floor is pretty damn high as well as his ceiling. His hit tool is excellent, his approach is excellent, his in game power is very good, his arm is plus plus, and makeup galore. The drawbacks are he’s supposedly not a great framer and robot umpires will fix that. I think the question marks out there would be he kinda strong arms his swing which may diminish its effectiveness after the rigors of catching, maybe..?? He can also hit some low line drive bombs that would kill the monster but not be homers. This is nitpicking. I for one would love Davis and then a HS lefty at 40 to satisfy my thirst for high risk high reward:). One thing to mention when Keith Law was talking about getting Buster Posey Vibes, if you look at Davis and Posey’s numbers side by side you say nope. But Law did remind us that Buster was hitting during the era that college used the silly bats so those numbers are super inflated.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 5, 2021 18:53:20 GMT -5
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