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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 11, 2021 12:03:13 GMT -5
I'm not following... how does Vazquez prove you don't need to take a catcher at 4? He has accumulated 4.6 bWAR over 7 seasons. Are you saying Catcher is the only position where you can find replacement-level players later in the draft? You don’t need to spend pick 4 on a catcher when we have 2 already and it’s proven catchers are drafted later all the time and obtain all star level catchers. 1. It has not been "proven". You seem to think a lot of things are proven then offer extremely shaky backup to try to justify it. 2. For the millionth time, you don't draft based on need. You can't expect Wong or Hernandez or even Vazquez to be productive by the time Davis is ready and if they're all good then that's fine, you move Davis to left field where his bat should play fine. I mean, honestly, how different do the reports on his bad sound from, say, JJ Bleday? I think you gotta relax a bit and stop drawing these hard lines in the sand trying to act like because one thing happened one time that's how it will be for the rest of instances to come, and understand that there is a lot of context in between. FWIW I started typing this before I saw Ramireja's post, if someone feels it should be deleted, go for it.
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Post by manfred on Jun 11, 2021 12:07:31 GMT -5
At this point, based on anecdotal evidence, I’d say the Sox should just pass when it is their turn because someone, sometime at each of these positions has been a mistake. Hopeless.
In all seriousness, having followed the arguments, it feels like there are at least 5 guys with strong cases, which is all I ask — the Sox seem guaranteed a fighting chance for a good player. Lawler, Davis, Rocker, Leiter, Mayer, House… I would be happy with any one of those. There is always massive risk from injury to stalled development — but all of those guys are defensible picks.
Anyway, it obviously depends on 1-3.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 11, 2021 12:16:10 GMT -5
FWIW, generally, in case it's helpful:
Legitimate, trusted sources for draft content, in no particular order: Baseball America Fangraphs (Longenhage, Goldstein) MLB Pipeline ESPN (McDaniel) to some degree Keith Law (need to filter for when he gets out on an island somewhat) to some degree Perfect Game (need to filter sometimes for the fact that there's a dual mission for the site) to some degree Prospects Live.
I'm sure I'm missing something?
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Post by marrcus on Jun 11, 2021 12:29:14 GMT -5
It does. And if you think Mayer, Leiter, Davis will be the 3 (in no specific order yet) then the RS are looking at: Lawlar, Watson, House, Rocker. Hopefully in a few weeks scouts have more advanced thoughts on those three ss. I wish Davis would be around at #4 just to give that option, but I don't think so.
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 11, 2021 12:30:25 GMT -5
If there are 5 or 7 good picks, and the Sox see it that way, too, and don’t have a medium to strong preference, the play is to offer the theee or so leftovers 600k to 800k undershot and see which ones if any bite.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 11, 2021 12:31:29 GMT -5
I don't get the sense that Watson is in play at 4. It seems like the Rangers are interested at 2 but otherwise he's not in play at 1, 3, or 4.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 11, 2021 12:53:10 GMT -5
Gavin Williams hitting 97 mph with his 90th pitch O.O
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 11, 2021 12:53:45 GMT -5
Gavin Williams hitting 97 mph with his 90th pitch O.O Nice little pitchers duel between him and Kumar
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 11, 2021 12:57:08 GMT -5
Gavin Williams hitting 97 mph with his 90th pitch O.O Nice little pitchers duel between him and Kumar He was impressive in the 5th: Gives up a leadoff double, then Ks the side while working with a smaller strike zone than Kumar lol
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 11, 2021 13:30:21 GMT -5
As listed before I really liked Gavin at 40….might not be possible now..still of all the mocks so far he’s rarely been in the first round….not so sure that stands now..
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 11, 2021 13:37:51 GMT -5
42 on MLB's list, 62 and rising on BA's. Wouldn't mind him at all there, but skeptical after today's performance.
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 11, 2021 13:40:07 GMT -5
Yeah….mlb mock doesn’t list him in first round, prospectslive has him going 19 though…
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 11, 2021 14:03:15 GMT -5
Accept it’s not. That’s exactly who trey ball was being talked about like. Or actually I’m sorry. Forgive me. He was comped as Chris sale. Hmmm whoops. And if you think that’s preposterous then sorry I can send the link.... This is preposterous. I will not "accept it's not." Trey Ball and Chris Sale are tall and lanky. That's all they said. Many analysts do body comps. Some are very lazy. When we got Freddy Valdez last week many many people compared Valdez to Franmil Reyes of the Indians because they are both very large. Doesn't mean anyone thinks he's likely to have a Franmil Reyes career. Nobody said "hey we got the next Chris Sale." We were there. Everybody was surprised he was picked so high and knew he was a gamble who might have a chance to pan out. You really don't want people to think you can't tell the difference between a body comp and a claim that someone is the next Chris Sale. Hmm I don’t know. Read the link I posted. And that was a quick and easy google search. NOT that hard to do. Seems you might want to read it before saying he wasn’t comp to Chris sale. 🤷🏻♂️ I don’t know what to tell you...it’s black and white Buddy. Not saying they were correct obviously but hey it’s right there. I’m not sure what your definition of preposterous is but ...... 🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️ I know this. They get paid to make analysis. We just make comments. I took their comp. not mine
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Post by destroia on Jun 11, 2021 14:07:32 GMT -5
As listed before I really liked Gavin at 40….might not be possible now..still of all the mocks so far he’s rarely been in the first round….not so sure that stands now.. If the bonus demands aren't too ridiculous, what are the thoughts here on Jaden Hill at 40?
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 11, 2021 14:27:37 GMT -5
FWIW, generally, in case it's helpful: Legitimate, trusted sources for draft content, in no particular order: Baseball America Fangraphs (Longenhage, Goldstein) MLB Pipeline ESPN (McDaniel) to some degree Keith Law (need to filter for when he gets out on an island somewhat) to some degree Perfect Game (need to filter sometimes for the fact that there's a dual mission for the site) to some degree Prospects Live. I'm sure I'm missing something? A source is a source. I didn’t know we had to seriously go through you to justify a source. Because I sure the heck don’t value law as a source. Anyways. Regardless. Davis IS going to be seen as a top 4 pick. People will be happy if he’s picked. I like picking a shortstop first if one is there and then a hitter if not OR Leiter. ( I am down on one college pitcher). Let’s name the top shortstops in mlb Carlos Correa ( top of first) Lindor (top of first) Baez. ( top of first) Trevor story ( 1st rounder) Tatis ( international) Bogaerts ( international) Turner ( top of first) Seager ( first) Bichette (2nd- but offered in first) Tim Anderson ( first round) Ex high profile shortstops ( recent) Nomar ( first round) Arod ( first round) Jeter ( first round) Prospects ( high end) Bobby Witt ( first round) Cj abrams ( first round) Luciano ( international) Lewis ( first round) Martin ( first round) Groshans ( first round) NOW you don’t draft for needs. BUT boogaerts contract is up soon ( he will opt out). Bloom has a stated desire to have depth at every level and at every position throughout system. We don’t have shortstop prospects ( unless you consider jeter downs ss) Last note: Realmunto (3rd round pick) Grandal ( free agent pick up ) Smith ( struggling first round) Contreras ( expensive international) Murphy (3rd round- struggling) Then you have Nola /Perez/garver/McCann And that’s just going off a list from mlb.com My point —- in MY opinion it seems we would be better to try for the shortstop this early ESPECIALLY if lawyer is there. To get that impact shortstop to add since I hope we aren’t drafting this early again in my lifetime. Don’t agree cool. We can debate who’s right or wrong 5 years from now. Time will tell what they do
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 11, 2021 14:29:13 GMT -5
This is preposterous. I will not "accept it's not." Trey Ball and Chris Sale are tall and lanky. That's all they said. Many analysts do body comps. Some are very lazy. When we got Freddy Valdez last week many many people compared Valdez to Franmil Reyes of the Indians because they are both very large. Doesn't mean anyone thinks he's likely to have a Franmil Reyes career. Nobody said "hey we got the next Chris Sale." We were there. Everybody was surprised he was picked so high and knew he was a gamble who might have a chance to pan out. You really don't want people to think you can't tell the difference between a body comp and a claim that someone is the next Chris Sale. Hmm I don’t know. Read the link I posted. And that was a quick and easy google search. NOT that hard to do. Seems you might want to read it before saying he wasn’t comp to Chris sale. 🤷🏻♂️ I don’t know what to tell you...it’s black and white Buddy. Not saying they were correct obviously but hey it’s right there. I’m not sure what your definition of preposterous is but ...... 🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️ I know this. They get paid to make analysis. We just make comments. I took their comp. not mine Like somebody else said, why would you use Bleacher Report as your source? That guy isn't a scout and it's a ridiculous comp. I don't know of anything scouting based that had Chris Sale as a legit comp. I don't remember anybody here being thrilled that the Sox drafted the next Chris Sale. At that point it was being debated whether he'd be better off as an outfielder than a raw pitcher. If he had flunked as an outfielder rather than a pitcher, would we no longer be subjected to your "You can't ever draft a pitcher that high" nonsense? Now I really wished the Sox had converted him to outfield off the bat. Then we could hear you tell us never draft an outfielder with a pick that high.
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 11, 2021 14:39:46 GMT -5
Hmm I don’t know. Read the link I posted. And that was a quick and easy google search. NOT that hard to do. Seems you might want to read it before saying he wasn’t comp to Chris sale. 🤷🏻♂️ I don’t know what to tell you...it’s black and white Buddy. Not saying they were correct obviously but hey it’s right there. I’m not sure what your definition of preposterous is but ...... 🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️ I know this. They get paid to make analysis. We just make comments. I took their comp. not mine Like somebody else said, why would you use Bleacher Report as your source? That guy isn't a scout and it's a ridiculous comp. I don't know of anything scouting based that had Chris Sale as a legit comp. I don't remember anybody here being thrilled that the Sox drafted the next Chris Sale. At that point it was being debated whether he'd be better off as an outfielder than a raw pitcher. If he had flunked as an outfielder rather than a pitcher, would we no longer be subjected to your "You can't ever draft a pitcher that high" nonsense? Now I really wished the Sox had converted him to outfield off the bat. Then we could hear you tell us never draft an outfielder with a pick that high. You asked for a source. Ie proof he was comped there. I’m sorry you don’t like the source. I really wish you didn’t know you knew everything and only your thought process or opinion could be correct. He WAS comp to him. Black and white. I hated the pick too. But it’s not preposterous that I mention he was compared to him because guess what. He was. Right there. That’s only reason I showed this was to say hey he was. Don’t like it... take it up with them. I didn’t right it. I simply said he was! Every pick is compared to someone and someone will give justification or thoughts on the guy. ( draft is all about upside and many fail). Before you go attacking someone for thoughts and saying oh it’s preposterous maybe do your research or you get proven wrong. You want to draft player xyz great. I don’t like catcher or said pitcher hey ok. Who’s right? Shoot we will know 5 years from now. Want to prove to me he WASNT compared to Chris sale by anyone? You can’t. Thank you for allowing me to have my opinion. Cause I sure don’t say you don’t have a clue and that your opinion is preposterous. I might cringe and say gosh I hope not. You have same credentials in this business as I do. We are fans. And probably passionate ones. Who have followed prospects. And Red Sox for years!! Through ups and downs. State your opinion and I’ll state mine Now let’s talk news.... should be a fun few weeks
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Jun 11, 2021 14:43:28 GMT -5
When the Sox drafted Benintendi I went on a text message rant to one of my friends deriding the move because I was stuck in the draft on need mentality, and because I didn't believe in the numbers he put up in college. My friend brings that text out every once and a while to remind me. The draft is really a lottery most of the time, every year a bunch of kids get picked, flame out, and their name is only kept alive by folks like us on this board.
I'm going to trust in Bloom to pick the best he can and hope whoever it is turns into a stud. I've been intrigued by Leiter mainly because he has pedigree. After him, I really don't know anything about these kids other than what has been argued back and forth on this thread. Like the Beni draft/trade, I don't want to make a snap judgement until all the results are in. So I guess I'll just lurk in the background and hope for the best.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 11, 2021 14:50:31 GMT -5
FWIW, generally, in case it's helpful: Legitimate, trusted sources for draft content, in no particular order: Baseball America Fangraphs (Longenhage, Goldstein) MLB Pipeline ESPN (McDaniel) to some degree Keith Law (need to filter for when he gets out on an island somewhat) to some degree Perfect Game (need to filter sometimes for the fact that there's a dual mission for the site) to some degree Prospects Live. I'm sure I'm missing something? A source is a source. [[...]] Please stop saying foolish things.
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 11, 2021 14:52:52 GMT -5
As listed before I really liked Gavin at 40….might not be possible now..still of all the mocks so far he’s rarely been in the first round….not so sure that stands now.. If the bonus demands aren't too ridiculous, what are the thoughts here on Jaden Hill at 40? I mean for me personally no. The guy I kinda follow is Mason McRae and he’s a big believer in fastballs that miss bats and as a result Hill I don’t think is even in his top 100. Also the awesome sliders we heard about didn’t seem to materialize. So it’s not like you hope he returns to his previous form post tjs because you never really saw the potential realized. So no for me. But he was hyped before the season, so I’m sure a bunch of guys will disagree with this assessment.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 11, 2021 14:55:31 GMT -5
Nice video in the NCAA thread of Rocker's 11 Ks today: 7 2/3, 3 hits, 0 runs, 3 BB, 11 K; the K's in that video look like sliders, curves and a few 96 MPH fastballs
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 11, 2021 14:58:48 GMT -5
dyoungteach, the guy who wrote the article's most recent posts for Bleacher Report include articles about the NBA, NFL, Lamar Odom's boxing match, a Chinese diplomat, and WWE. Bleacher Report is a content farm, and was even moreso in 2013. Bleacher Report is a reliable source on literally nothing. You might as well cite Fansided.
Anyway, current leaders in fWAR for catchers:
1. Posey - first round 2. Realmuto - third round 3. Narvaez - IFA 4. The very much not "struggling" Will Smith - first round 5. Zunino - first round 6. Grandal - first round 7. Kelly - second round 8. Contreras - IFA 9. Perez - IFA 10. Stallings - 7th round
Shortstops 1. Bogaerts - IFA 2. Correa - 1st 3. Turner - 1st 4. Crawford - 4th 5. Tatis - IFA 6. Kiner-Falefa - 4th 7. Rojas - IFA 8. Anderson - 1st 9. Bichette - 2nd 10. Torres - IFA
Decidedly unscientific but... I see more first-round catchers than shortstops...
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 11, 2021 15:16:38 GMT -5
A source is a source. [[...]] Please stop saying foolish things. Please stop judging the facts.
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 11, 2021 15:19:59 GMT -5
Just curious did anybody actually see Kumar pitch today? For as much grief as I give the guy he had a great line but I couldn’t watch the game.
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 11, 2021 15:22:13 GMT -5
dyoungteach, the guy who wrote the article's most recent posts for Bleacher Report include articles about the NBA, NFL, Lamar Odom's boxing match, a Chinese diplomat, and WWE. Bleacher Report is a content farm, and was even moreso in 2013. Bleacher Report is a reliable source on literally nothing. You might as well cite Fansided. Anyway, current leaders in fWAR for catchers: 1. Posey - first round 2. Realmuto - third round 3. Narvaez - IFA 4. The very much not "struggling" Will Smith - first round 5. Zunino - first round 6. Grandal - first round 7. Kelly - second round 8. Contreras - IFA 9. Perez - IFA 10. Stallings - 7th round Shortstops 1. Bogaerts - IFA 2. Correa - 1st 3. Turner - 1st 4. Crawford - 4th 5. Tatis - IFA 6. Kiner-Falefa - 4th 7. Rojas - IFA 8. Anderson - 1st 9. Bichette - 2nd 10. Torres - IFA Decidedly unscientific but... I see more first-round catchers than shortstops... Those players are taken over 2 months of in season play. I’m looking at top 10 for both positions coming into season per mlb rankings. That’s vastly different. But that’s ok. Paul konerko was picked as a catcher so if he can hit he can hit. I still would much rather pick a shortstop. We can debate this 5 years from now and if I’m wrong I’ll be first to say hey congrats Chris. Your right. I was wrong I just would pick Mayer or lawyer if they are there. Hands down ( and I like house and Watson). Let’s see where chips land
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