jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 20, 2021 16:36:22 GMT -5
Just a point of information, you're mixing up draft narratives. They took heat for taking Correa 1 instead of Buxton in 2012, signing him for $1.2M less than Buxton signed for and using that money to take McCullers at #41. Worked out ok I'd say. Appel was selected 8th by Pittsburgh that year and didn't sign and the Astros took him the following year in the clusterf- known as the 2013 draft. Really? I could’ve sworn Appel was the consensus #1 pick that year and fell because he had leverage to go back for another year if he didn’t get his number. I don’t remember anything about Correa vs Buxton, but hey my memory is not perfect so I’ll have to look that up. Also, Jack Leiter... sheesh! Yeah, that's right. Appel was a consensus #1 prediction and fell to 8. May 10, 2012: Mock draft v1.0 1. ASTROS. Houston is doing its due diligence on all of the top talents, but it's believed this decision will come down to Buxton and Appel, with the latter the favorite because he'll deliver a more immediate return. Though Appel doesn't always dominate as much as scouts think he should, he has been very good down the stretch. Projected Pick: MARK APPEL. www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2012-mlb-mock-draft-2-0-may-25/Law the weekend before: 1) Houston Astros Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford www.espn.com/mlb/draft/2012/insider/story/_/id/8006782/mark-appel-goes-no-1-keith-law-final-2012-mlb-mock-draft"The disappointment -- and the mystery -- came soon enough, when teams began passing on Stanford University right-hander Mark Appel. Appel was never considered a once-in-a-generation, slam-dunk talent along the lines of a Bryce Harper or Stephen Strasburg. But he entered the day as the consensus choice to go to Houston first overall. So it was a bit puzzling when he began slipping and sliding until the Pittsburgh Pirates finally nabbed him with the eighth overall pick." www.espn.com/mlb/draft/2012/story/_/id/8010121/mlb-draft-surprises-carlos-correa-mark-appel
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Post by unitspin on Mar 20, 2021 18:24:00 GMT -5
The thing about the upcoming draft at #4 we are basically picking the guy or couple guys everyone else passed on. Most on the board agree right now on the top 4 so we just have to sit back and hope our guy is the one that gets passed over.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Mar 20, 2021 18:42:48 GMT -5
Give me one of Leiter or Rocker. I don't care which.
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Post by corballer on Mar 20, 2021 19:24:06 GMT -5
Honestly, I am happy with either of Lawlar, Mayer, Leiter, or Rocker. These four appear to be a tier above the the rest so unless we go under slot I am cool with Chaim taking whoever is left!
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 20, 2021 20:20:23 GMT -5
I was definitely pretty skeptical of Rocker coming into the season, but I'm not anymore. But I am pretty firm in my belief Leiter is better, which doesn't feel like that hot a take.
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Post by soxinsf on Mar 20, 2021 20:45:10 GMT -5
[quthegoodthebadthesox" I was definitely pretty skeptical of Rocker coming into the season, but I'm not anymore. But I am pretty firm in my belief Leiter is better, which doesn't feel like that hot a take.
Until The Leiter masterpiece, it would have been nearly impossible to separate the two Vandy boys statistically. It would be great to get either of them. The worry is that they go 1-2. Do the Sox then take the next best picture? That would be my choice. It is more than high time for the Sox to develop pitchers rather than corner infielders.
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Post by soxinsf on Mar 20, 2021 20:46:40 GMT -5
That would be next best pitcher.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 20, 2021 21:18:19 GMT -5
Just a point of information, you're mixing up draft narratives. They took heat for taking Correa 1 instead of Buxton in 2012, signing him for $1.2M less than Buxton signed for and using that money to take McCullers at #41. Worked out ok I'd say. Appel was selected 8th by Pittsburgh that year and didn't sign and the Astros took him the following year in the clusterf- known as the 2013 draft. Really? I could’ve sworn Appel was the consensus #1 pick that year and fell because he had leverage to go back for another year if he didn’t get his number. I don’t remember anything about Correa vs Buxton, but hey my memory is not perfect so I’ll have to look that up. Also, Jack Leiter... sheesh! Maybe we're both right. It's Bleacher Report, but: bleacherreport.com/articles/1210302-carlos-correa-and-the-10-most-shocking-no-1-picks-in-mlb-draft-historyEDIT: OK wow I think I might be wrong here. My bad if so. www.espn.com/mlb/draft/2012/story/_/id/8010121/mlb-draft-surprises-carlos-correa-mark-appelI think it was that at the time everyone thought Appel or Buxton. Then when Buxton became the top prospect in the game they were getting some heat for not taking him?
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Post by tyler3 on Mar 20, 2021 22:12:10 GMT -5
[quthegoodthebadthesox" I was definitely pretty skeptical of Rocker coming into the season, but I'm not anymore. But I am pretty firm in my belief Leiter is better, which doesn't feel like that hot a take. Until The Leiter masterpiece, it would have been nearly impossible to separate the two Vandy boys statistically. It would be great to get either of them. The worry is that they go 1-2. Do the Sox then take the next best picture? That would be my choice. It is more than high time for the Sox to develop pitchers rather than corner infielders. I hear you but Jordan and Marcelo aren’t corner guys, they are SSs projected to stay at SS and hit for high average and average to higher power. Just saying we don’t have that in our system.
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 20, 2021 22:48:02 GMT -5
[quthegoodthebadthesox" I was definitely pretty skeptical of Rocker coming into the season, but I'm not anymore. But I am pretty firm in my belief Leiter is better, which doesn't feel like that hot a take. Until The Leiter masterpiece, it would have been nearly impossible to separate the two Vandy boys statistically. It would be great to get either of them. The worry is that they go 1-2. Do the Sox then take the next best picture? That would be my choice. It is more than high time for the Sox to develop pitchers rather than corner infielders. Teams shouldn't draft for need in the mlb draft and if Leiter and Rocker are off the board by the 4th pick which seems most likely they shouldn't pick a pitcher unless they believe they are the best player available.
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Post by ramireja on Mar 20, 2021 23:04:24 GMT -5
Sorry but I'm here with more Henry Davis content:
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Mar 21, 2021 1:06:02 GMT -5
The more he plays the more I think Davis will go top 3
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Post by tyler3 on Mar 21, 2021 1:38:53 GMT -5
If so good. That’s the thing....the more guys establish themselves at the top the better in my opinion. There is always a top group and then a drop off. What we need is that top group to be more than 3 guys. This draft is quickly becoming a draft where there is a consensus of the top 3 or so guys and then a point where even the industry boards start to vary wildly. It would be nice if that top echelon include 4 plus guys and the Red Sox could just grab whoever falls when somebody in the top 3 tries to get cute.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 21, 2021 9:28:23 GMT -5
If so good. That’s the thing....the more guys establish themselves at the top the better in my opinion. There is always a top group and then a drop off. What we need is that top group to be more than 3 guys. This draft is quickly becoming a draft where there is a consensus of the top 3 or so guys and then a point where even the industry boards start to vary wildly. It would be nice if that top echelon include 4 plus guys and the Red Sox could just grab whoever falls when somebody in the top 3 tries to get cute. Who are you thinking are the top 3? I feel like I keep hearing a top 4 of Leiter, Rocker, Lawlar, and Mayer.
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Post by tyler3 on Mar 21, 2021 11:14:58 GMT -5
I think the consensus top 3 are Lawlar, Kumar, and Jack and I believe with Marcelo’s recent power showing he’ll be in a lot of the top 4s in the boards when they are updated. I haven't checked this morning but aside from prospectslive, (who just updated their board) baseball America, mlb, fangraphs, and Keith law still have Marcelo in the 5 to 8 range. I think it will be interesting to see how many of them will place Marcelo at 4 or higher when they get updated.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Mar 21, 2021 16:33:50 GMT -5
Wouldn't the draft be great if they allowed trades? Deal up to 2 to get your guy.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Mar 21, 2021 19:24:54 GMT -5
Wouldn't the draft be great if they allowed trades? Deal up to 2 to get your guy. Or trade down to 7 and get Ty madden and an additional 2nd or 3rd Hopefully that’s something we see in a new CBA (if that’s even a place to address it?). They probably didn’t want it with the old draft model because it could possibly make those late rounds tedious but they should allow teams to trade picks within the first 10 rounds or something
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 21, 2021 19:38:06 GMT -5
Wouldn't the draft be great if they allowed trades? Deal up to 2 to get your guy. Or trade down to 7 and get Ty madden and an additional 2nd or 3rd Hopefully that’s something we see in a new CBA (if that’s even a place to address it?). They probably didn’t want it with the old draft model because it could possibly make those late rounds tedious but they should allow teams to trade picks within the first 10 rounds or something They didn't allow it previously, as I understand it, because they were afraid cheap teams would basically trade out of the draft. I think at this point every team is smart enough to realize that in terms of investment into one's team, it's a good way to do so without breaking the bank - your entire draft budget is the equivalent of like 1 MLB player. They absolutely should allow trading picks, but I doubt they get to that in the next CBA. They have bigger fish to fry on the economics of the game, and in terms of amateurs, an international draft appears to be the bigger priority right now. That said, they will be addressing the draft - which will certainly be shorter going forward - so maybe it'll come up. But I just don't see which side will want to push for it either.
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Post by unitspin on Mar 21, 2021 19:48:50 GMT -5
I know everyone is in love with the lawler kid but I'm hoping he doesn't land on us. Mayer to me screams the better of the two prospects.
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Post by dyoungteach on Mar 21, 2021 21:25:01 GMT -5
I know everyone is in love with the lawler kid but I'm hoping he doesn't land on us. Mayer to me screams the better of the two prospects. Mayer. Lawyer. House. And Leiter potentially also
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 21, 2021 22:07:40 GMT -5
I really have trouble believing that barring anything unforeseen that Rocker and Leiter will still be around with the 4th pick.
My guess is that Rocker goes #1 to Pittsburgh, Lawlor goes #2 to Texas (he's from Texas, I believe?), and Detroit will probably wind up with Leiter (that's assuming that Leiter doesn't go 1 or 2, which isn't exactly a safe assumption), so I'd guess with the #4 pick, it's Mayer for the Red Sox, which would be awesome, although the Red Sox could surprise people and go after somebody else that they feel has risen to the top of the list of what's left after the top 3 go.
I just have a lot of trouble believing that if Lawlor were to get picked by Texas that Detroit would suddenly draft for need and bypass one of Leiter or Rocker for a position player. Teams go best available guy. You could always trade for position players if you're rich in pitching. Besides why wouldn't you stack potential future aces in your system?
So as much as I want Rocker or now Leiter has me wanting him, I think the Sox will miss out on those two pitchers. Of course if by some chance that doesn't happen, you'd think they'd have to pounce on either Leiter or Rocker. And as I've read, Cora is really intrigued by Leiter.
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Post by ramireja on Mar 21, 2021 23:26:16 GMT -5
One thing to keep in mind as the season progresses.....these pitchers are getting worked hard already. Pitches thrown this weekend:
Jack Leiter: 125 Kumar Rocker: 116 Ty Madden: 120 Gunnar Hoglund: 118
Yikes
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 22, 2021 0:04:30 GMT -5
One thing to keep in mind as the season progresses.....these pitchers are getting worked hard already. Pitches thrown this weekend: Jack Leiter: 125 Kumar Rocker: 116 Ty Madden: 120 Gunnar Hoglund: 118 Yikes True, although it is difficult to take out a pitcher throwing a non-hitter, isn't it?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 22, 2021 9:32:02 GMT -5
One thing to keep in mind as the season progresses.....these pitchers are getting worked hard already. Pitches thrown this weekend: Jack Leiter: 125 Kumar Rocker: 116 Ty Madden: 120 Gunnar Hoglund: 118 Yikes Not great but given 6 days of rest, not as bad as the days you'd see guys throwing 140+
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Post by ramireja on Mar 22, 2021 13:14:29 GMT -5
As the industry draft board starts to come into focus (although I think there's plenty of time for shakeups at the top), it may be worth noting a TEX 1st round pattern in recent years. TEX hasn't signed a first round pick to their respective slot value since 2016, so that's a total of 5 1st round picks signed for below slot in the last 4 years. In the past three years in particular, they've saved $790K (Justin Fosuce), $780K (Josh Jung), and $590K (Cole Winn) on their 1st round picks and then tend to spread the savings around HS talent later in the draft.
I don't mean to suggest that the Rangers will go completely off the board at #2 and send a top 3 consensus guy to our pick. That said, if TEX has even 2-3 guys they're debating at #2, they may take the guy willing to sign for the lowest bonus and we likely won't have access to that info until the pick is announced.
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