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2021 MLB Draft
TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Mar 22, 2021 18:17:15 GMT -5
As the industry draft board starts to come into focus (although I think there's plenty of time for shakeups at the top), it may be worth noting a TEX 1st round pattern in recent years. TEX hasn't signed a first round pick to their respective slot value since 2016, so that's a total of 5 1st round picks signed for below slot in the last 4 years. In the past three years in particular, they've saved $790K (Justin Fosuce), $780K (Josh Jung), and $590K (Cole Winn) on their 1st round picks and then tend to spread the savings around HS talent later in the draft. I don't mean to suggest that the Rangers will go completely off the board at #2 and send a top 3 consensus guy to our pick. That said, if TEX has even 2-3 guys they're debating at #2, they may take the guy willing to sign for the lowest bonus and we likely won't have access to that info until the pick is announced. As someone with a serious case of Leiter lust, I am encouraged by this. We need something quirky to happen in the first three picks to give us a shot at Leiter. I am assuming that Pittsburgh will take K-Rock at 1. If Texas goes under slot, we'd just need Detroit to choose one of the SS for Leiter to fall to us. I stil think it's still a long shot because I think Detroit would grab Leiter. I was hoping for Leiter in the first round and Gunnar Hoglund in the second. It appears that they're both pitching themselves out of our reach.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 22, 2021 20:45:08 GMT -5
More of something for the later rounds rather than the first: An interesting point that Carlos and Ben brought up on BA's new scouting-focused podcast (which is terrific but my god the episodes are long) - in the new minor leagues, will teams have less appetite for toolsy, raw, riskier high school prospects? Will they lean more towards college players with fewer roster spots in the minors to stash potential projects? But on the other hand, if some teams zig that way, will others zag by picking up on a new market inefficiency, in their eyes, in rawer HS talent?
Will be fascinating to see how that plays out, thinking of rounds, say, 2-8.
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Post by geostorm on Mar 22, 2021 21:28:20 GMT -5
www.mlb.com/news/vanderbilt-coach-scouts-jack-leiter-kumar-rocker?t=mlb-pipeline-coverageOn Leiter, Corbin said the right-hander's big fastball is the key: "I think the fastball is what separates him. You can put a velocity number on it, whether it's 95, 96 [mph]. But you've seen guys in the past, whether it's [Roger] Clemens or [Curt] Schilling, they have a fastball that just jumps up on the hitter -- and his does." "In a lot of ways, seeing Gibson pitch as a kid, there's a compete similarity with Kumar and Bob," Corbin said. "I'm not gonna compare the two [as pitchers], that wouldn't be fair, but at the same time -- not minimizing Kumar's stuff, because his stuff is very good -- but he's out there competing. He just wants to win for his team, and I think it makes him very unique for a lot of different reasons."
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 23, 2021 9:26:02 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Mar 23, 2021 12:44:55 GMT -5
I moved the pitcher usage convo to its own thread. We'll get this thread back to draft related matters.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Mar 23, 2021 14:19:48 GMT -5
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 23, 2021 14:26:32 GMT -5
I don’t think he is gonna get many pitches the rest of his season lol.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Mar 23, 2021 22:25:12 GMT -5
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Post by tyler3 on Mar 23, 2021 23:24:53 GMT -5
Ahh Joe’s the man. Honestly guys if you wanted a talented guy answering your questions follow Joe. He’s answered 3 of my last 3 questions. Super nice guy.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 24, 2021 7:54:02 GMT -5
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 24, 2021 7:55:50 GMT -5
Madden a big mover. Expected House to be top 10.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 24, 2021 11:28:58 GMT -5
In situations like this where an outlet like BA is going to just save over their rankings at the same link, I think we can be more lenient with posting more of the list for posterity.
1. Kumar Rocker 2. Jack Leiter 3. Jordan Lawlar 4. Marcelo Mayer 5. Adrian Del Castillo 6. Sal Frelick 7. Henry Davis 8. Jaden Hill 9. Ty Madden 10. Gunnar Hoglund 11 James Wood 12 Brady House 13 Kahlil Watson 14 Matt McLain 15 Sam Bachman 16 Jordan Wicks 17 Jud Fabian 18 Jackson Jobe 19 Bubba Chandler 20 Andrew Painter 21 Joshua Baez 22 Harry Ford 23 Joe Mack 24 Izaac Pacheco 25 Luca Tresh 26 Colton Cowser 27 Benny Montgomery 28 Thatcher Hurd 29 Joshua Hartle 30 Tommy Mace
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Post by incandenza on Mar 24, 2021 11:37:00 GMT -5
Signs of more convergence toward a Rocker-Leiter-Lawlar-Mayer top 4? (Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I think they had Mayer a little lower last time. Or was it Leiter...)
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texs31
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Post by texs31 on Mar 24, 2021 11:43:49 GMT -5
Top 3 is pretty much a consensus (Rocker, Leiter and Lawlar) in some order. Law, Fangraphs and ESPN (McDaniel) had Mayer outside the Top 5 in their most recent updates.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 24, 2021 12:21:51 GMT -5
Signs of more convergence toward a Rocker-Leiter-Lawlar-Mayer top 4? (Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I think they had Mayer a little lower last time. Or was it Leiter...) Mayer stayed steady in the BA ranking. Leiter moved up from 5 to 2, Lawlar down 1 and ADC down 2 to accommodate. I don't want them to draft Lawlar because "Lawler" is going to become the new various spellings of Buchholz.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 24, 2021 12:50:54 GMT -5
Signs of more convergence toward a Rocker-Leiter-Lawlar-Mayer top 4? (Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I think they had Mayer a little lower last time. Or was it Leiter...) Mayer stayed steady in the BA ranking. Leiter moved up from 5 to 2, Lawlar down 1 and ADC down 2 to accommodate. I don't want them to draft Lawlar because "Lawler" is going to become the new various spellings of Buchholz. Alas, Mayer/Meyer presents a low-key danger there as well.
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Post by agastonguay13 on Mar 24, 2021 13:58:55 GMT -5
I wonder if Sal Frelick gets a little bit of the Pedroia style draft treatment and falls due to size/school/region etc... Seems like a Pedroia type player. Wouldn't mind grabbing him in round 2. I know smaller guys have been going higher than they used to in recent years (Nicks Madrigal and Gonzalez), BC has had it's fair share of higher choices, and there is a lot of good looking talent coming out of Massachusetts this year, but I feel like having to contend with all three of those "demerits" could force him down draft boards.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Mar 24, 2021 15:47:45 GMT -5
Signs of more convergence toward a Rocker-Leiter-Lawlar-Mayer top 4? (Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I think they had Mayer a little lower last time. Or was it Leiter...) Mayer stayed steady in the BA ranking. Leiter moved up from 5 to 2, Lawlar down 1 and ADC down 2 to accommodate. I don't want them to draft Lawlar because "Lawler" is going to become the new various spellings of Buchholz. You mean Buckholts?
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Post by manfred on Mar 24, 2021 15:59:36 GMT -5
Another sign of why I want an arm: Lance McCullers Jr, who has won 32 more MLB games than Rocker or Leiter, just signed for $85 million. Pitching contracts are crazy.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 24, 2021 20:00:14 GMT -5
Another sign of why I want an arm: Lance McCullers Jr, who has won 32 more MLB games than Rocker or Leiter, just signed for $85 million. Pitching contracts are crazy. You say he has only 32 wins, I say he already has more than half the innings pitched of borderline Hall of Famer Billy Wagner. And he's only 27!
But I'll tell you who has just as many career wins as Rocker and Leiter: Brady Aiken, Mark Appel, Danny Hultzen, Kyle Sleeth, Chris Gruler. All taken in the top 4 picks...
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Post by manfred on Mar 24, 2021 23:22:30 GMT -5
Another sign of why I want an arm: Lance McCullers Jr, who has won 32 more MLB games than Rocker or Leiter, just signed for $85 million. Pitching contracts are crazy. You say he has only 32 wins, I say he already has more than half the innings pitched of borderline Hall of Famer Billy Wagner. And he's only 27!
But I'll tell you who has just as many career wins as Rocker and Leiter: Brady Aiken, Mark Appel, Danny Hultzen, Kyle Sleeth, Chris Gruler. All taken in the top 4 picks...
And yet this contract puts him near even with Wagner in career earnings, though Wagner pitched 16 years — and might be a HOF, somethibg McCullers is probably under 1% chance of sniffing. Obviously the point is that pitchers are outrageously expensive... so much so that a guy like McCullers (who has averaged 100 innings a year) is getting paid huge money on hope. And many top starters aren’t rookies at 22, so a FA at 28 is not that common (as McCullers would have been). So, as I’ve said before, trying to get a #1 — and get his prime years — is almost prohibitively expensive outside the draft or international market.
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Post by dyoungteach on Mar 25, 2021 7:40:31 GMT -5
You say he has only 32 wins, I say he already has more than half the innings pitched of borderline Hall of Famer Billy Wagner. And he's only 27!
But I'll tell you who has just as many career wins as Rocker and Leiter: Brady Aiken, Mark Appel, Danny Hultzen, Kyle Sleeth, Chris Gruler. All taken in the top 4 picks...
And yet this contract puts him near even with Wagner in career earnings, though Wagner pitched 16 years — and might be a HOF, somethibg McCullers is probably under 1% chance of sniffing. Obviously the point is that pitchers are outrageously expensive... so much so that a guy like McCullers (who has averaged 100 innings a year) is getting paid huge money on hope. And many top starters aren’t rookies at 22, so a FA at 28 is not that common (as McCullers would have been). So, as I’ve said before, trying to get a #1 — and get his prime years — is almost prohibitively expensive outside the draft or international market. Why your worried about contract and not production is confusing. You can draft the “ exactly the reason I want to take this pitcher with this potential” in the second round and leverage your 4th pick to minimize risk by taking a shortstop there. Do we even want to talk what shortstops get on open market or how they help everyone including the pitcher. I’m cheering for Leiter and rocker but not for Red Sox. Pirates and rangers would be perfect for them
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Post by manfred on Mar 25, 2021 8:11:09 GMT -5
And yet this contract puts him near even with Wagner in career earnings, though Wagner pitched 16 years — and might be a HOF, somethibg McCullers is probably under 1% chance of sniffing. Obviously the point is that pitchers are outrageously expensive... so much so that a guy like McCullers (who has averaged 100 innings a year) is getting paid huge money on hope. And many top starters aren’t rookies at 22, so a FA at 28 is not that common (as McCullers would have been). So, as I’ve said before, trying to get a #1 — and get his prime years — is almost prohibitively expensive outside the draft or international market. Why your worried about contract and not production is confusing. You can draft the “ exactly the reason I want to take this pitcher with this potential” in the second round and leverage your 4th pick to minimize risk by taking a shortstop there. Do we even want to talk what shortstops get on open market or how they help everyone including the pitcher. I’m cheering for Leiter and rocker but not for Red Sox. Pirates and rangers would be perfect for them I might be wrong, but given that there are 8 offensive positions and only 1 pitcher, I suspect your odds of getting that future elite SS is higher with pick 2 than that future elite pitcher. Hey, I liked Dombrowski, so I’m fine with periodically giving up a #1 prospect another top-10 guy to get an ace starter. But if people want a different model, they gave to take a big leap of faith. But note: I’m not arguing they take a pitcher *merely* for its own sake. If there are only poor bets, sure take the SS. What I am saying is I *hope* there is an elite arm (and there appear to be at least four, so why wouldn’t there be) and that they take one.
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Post by dyoungteach on Mar 25, 2021 8:33:18 GMT -5
Why your worried about contract and not production is confusing. You can draft the “ exactly the reason I want to take this pitcher with this potential” in the second round and leverage your 4th pick to minimize risk by taking a shortstop there. Do we even want to talk what shortstops get on open market or how they help everyone including the pitcher. I’m cheering for Leiter and rocker but not for Red Sox. Pirates and rangers would be perfect for them I might be wrong, but given that there are 8 offensive positions and only 1 pitcher, I suspect your odds of getting that future elite SS is higher with pick 2 than that future elite pitcher. Hey, I liked Dombrowski, so I’m fine with periodically giving up a #1 prospect another top-10 guy to get an ace starter. But if people want a different model, they gave to take a big leap of faith. But note: I’m not arguing they take a pitcher *merely* for its own sake. If there are only poor bets, sure take the SS. What I am saying is I *hope* there is an elite arm (and there appear to be at least four, so why wouldn’t there be) and that they take one. Shane Bieber. Jacob degrom Jesus luzardo. Griffin Channing Brandon woodruff. Nate Pearson Adam wainwright Walker buehler Felix Hernandez. Pedro Martinez. Noah syndergard Blake snell. Mike Clevinger Tarik skubal Clarke Schmidt What do all those names have in common? Not one of them are picked in top 5 picks of draft. Heck even sale wasn’t. So no you don’t have to mortgage future to get one. You need to have a concerted effort to draft and develop pitching through both international and domestic “drafts” or signings and need to spend some high picks on them BUT no way does it have to be a once in a century top 4 pick in the draft with plenty of quality middle infield depth in the draft!! So sorry but your wrong the spin that if they don’t take a pitcher at 4 they will have to either spend money or trade to get one is just plain wrong. It is right if they don’t develop pitchers but it doesn’t have to be here. No way no how
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Post by manfred on Mar 25, 2021 8:48:09 GMT -5
I might be wrong, but given that there are 8 offensive positions and only 1 pitcher, I suspect your odds of getting that future elite SS is higher with pick 2 than that future elite pitcher. Hey, I liked Dombrowski, so I’m fine with periodically giving up a #1 prospect another top-10 guy to get an ace starter. But if people want a different model, they gave to take a big leap of faith. But note: I’m not arguing they take a pitcher *merely* for its own sake. If there are only poor bets, sure take the SS. What I am saying is I *hope* there is an elite arm (and there appear to be at least four, so why wouldn’t there be) and that they take one. Shane Bieber. Jacob degrom Jesus luzardo. Griffin Channing Brandon woodruff. Nate Pearson Adam wainwright Walker buehler Felix Hernandez. Pedro Martinez. Noah syndergard Blake snell. Mike Clevinger Tarik skubal Clarke Schmidt What do all those names have in common? Not one of them are picked in top 5 picks of draft. Heck even sale wasn’t. So no you don’t have to mortgage future to get one. You need to have a concerted effort to draft and develop pitching through both international and domestic “drafts” or signings and need to spend some high picks on them BUT no way does it have to be a once in a century top 4 pick in the draft with plenty of quality middle infield depth in the draft!! So sorry but your wrong the spin that if they don’t take a pitcher at 4 they will have to either spend money or trade to get one is just plain wrong. It is right if they don’t develop pitchers but it doesn’t have to be here. No way no how Whatever. You have a list of a few exceptions to disprove a dogmatic position I’m not taking. That list is silly. I already said international signings were another route (Felix). And a bunch of those guys WERE first rounders. So was Syndergaard was not top 5, but he wouldn’t be there for your second round pick. And... would you NOT draft de Grom with the fourth pick? Wanna wait that out? We’ll see. In 3 years, the Sox will need a new #1. Where will he come from? He is not currently in the system, so...
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