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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by unitspin on Mar 25, 2021 9:08:59 GMT -5
Just for a point of reference since it was the last full season of baseball the top 10 WAR players in 2019, only two were selected in the top 5 one pitcher, one position player. Both college players. Its all a crapshoot just have to make the best guess you can.
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Post by azblue on Mar 25, 2021 10:24:42 GMT -5
dyoungteach, do you not understand that Felix Hernandez and Pedro Martinez were international free agents?
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 25, 2021 10:57:53 GMT -5
Top 3 is pretty much a consensus (Rocker, Leiter and Lawlar) in some order. Law, Fangraphs and ESPN (McDaniel) had Mayer outside the Top 5 in their most recent updates. It would really suck if we had ended up with the 3 pick. Then the entire discussion here would be, whoever's left.
I read the BA reports--first attention I've paid to this in months--and really like what they said about Mayer.
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Post by dyoungteach on Mar 25, 2021 12:19:15 GMT -5
Shane Bieber. Jacob degrom Jesus luzardo. Griffin Channing Brandon woodruff. Nate Pearson Adam wainwright Walker buehler Felix Hernandez. Pedro Martinez. Noah syndergard Blake snell. Mike Clevinger Tarik skubal Clarke Schmidt What do all those names have in common? Not one of them are picked in top 5 picks of draft. Heck even sale wasn’t. So no you don’t have to mortgage future to get one. You need to have a concerted effort to draft and develop pitching through both international and domestic “drafts” or signings and need to spend some high picks on them BUT no way does it have to be a once in a century top 4 pick in the draft with plenty of quality middle infield depth in the draft!! So sorry but your wrong the spin that if they don’t take a pitcher at 4 they will have to either spend money or trade to get one is just plain wrong. It is right if they don’t develop pitchers but it doesn’t have to be here. No way no how Whatever. You have a list of a few exceptions to disprove a dogmatic position I’m not taking. That list is silly. I already said international signings were another route (Felix). And a bunch of those guys WERE first rounders. So was Syndergaard was not top 5, but he wouldn’t be there for your second round pick. And... would you NOT draft de Grom with the fourth pick? Wanna wait that out? We’ll see. In 3 years, the Sox will need a new #1. Where will he come from? He is not currently in the system, so... You don’t know he’s not in the system. And absolutely some were taken in first round. LATER in draft. We don’t need to plug that this year. Your so set that one of these guys will be an ace. Ask pirates or royals how that worked. Ask the Marlins how it worked. You can get your ace next year or year after. Bieber developed. Cole took 6 years to develop. If we go your route we will have plenty of more opportunities to pick in top 4 that’s for sure.
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Post by dyoungteach on Mar 25, 2021 12:21:47 GMT -5
dyoungteach, do you not understand that Felix Hernandez and Pedro Martinez were international free agents? Absolutely. Hence why I said draft or free agent signings/international draft. There are PLENTY of other places to find an ace than a top 4 pick that you hopefully only get once every 20-40 years ( hopefully). What don’t you understand about me saying all those guys were acquired outside the top of the draft?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 25, 2021 12:32:40 GMT -5
I might be wrong, but given that there are 8 offensive positions and only 1 pitcher, I suspect your odds of getting that future elite SS is higher with pick 2 than that future elite pitcher. Hey, I liked Dombrowski, so I’m fine with periodically giving up a #1 prospect another top-10 guy to get an ace starter. But if people want a different model, they gave to take a big leap of faith. But note: I’m not arguing they take a pitcher *merely* for its own sake. If there are only poor bets, sure take the SS. What I am saying is I *hope* there is an elite arm (and there appear to be at least four, so why wouldn’t there be) and that they take one. Shane Bieber. Jacob degrom Jesus luzardo. Griffin Channing Brandon woodruff. Nate Pearson Adam wainwright Walker buehler Felix Hernandez. Pedro Martinez. Noah syndergard Blake snell. Mike Clevinger Tarik skubal Clarke Schmidt What do all those names have in common? Not one of them are picked in top 5 picks of draft. Heck even sale wasn’t. So no you don’t have to mortgage future to get one. You need to have a concerted effort to draft and develop pitching through both international and domestic “drafts” or signings and need to spend some high picks on them BUT no way does it have to be a once in a century top 4 pick in the draft with plenty of quality middle infield depth in the draft!! So sorry but your wrong the spin that if they don’t take a pitcher at 4 they will have to either spend money or trade to get one is just plain wrong. It is right if they don’t develop pitchers but it doesn’t have to be here. No way no how I haven't really paid much attention to this discussion because it seems pretty pointless but if your argument is "there have been pitchers that have been drafted outside the top 5 that have been good" then... you're going about it wrong. Yes, if you compare a sample of 100 players versus a sample of thousands, you're probably going to have more hits in the latter sample. But what's important is the hit RATE.
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Post by dyoungteach on Mar 25, 2021 12:42:56 GMT -5
Shane Bieber. Jacob degrom Jesus luzardo. Griffin Channing Brandon woodruff. Nate Pearson Adam wainwright Walker buehler Felix Hernandez. Pedro Martinez. Noah syndergard Blake snell. Mike Clevinger Tarik skubal Clarke Schmidt What do all those names have in common? Not one of them are picked in top 5 picks of draft. Heck even sale wasn’t. So no you don’t have to mortgage future to get one. You need to have a concerted effort to draft and develop pitching through both international and domestic “drafts” or signings and need to spend some high picks on them BUT no way does it have to be a once in a century top 4 pick in the draft with plenty of quality middle infield depth in the draft!! So sorry but your wrong the spin that if they don’t take a pitcher at 4 they will have to either spend money or trade to get one is just plain wrong. It is right if they don’t develop pitchers but it doesn’t have to be here. No way no how I haven't really paid much attention to this discussion because it seems pretty pointless but if your argument is "there have been pitchers that have been drafted outside the top 5 that have been good" then... you're going about it wrong. Yes, if you compare a sample of 100 players versus a sample of thousands, you're probably going to have more hits in the latter sample. But what's important is the hit RATE. So your saying hit rate of pitchers in top 5 is great vs hitters? I absolutely disagree
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Post by tyler3 on Mar 25, 2021 12:43:49 GMT -5
I think both sides have doubled down on the do you take a pitcher with a top 5 pick debate. Not saying I don’t like a healthy debate fellas but this particular one has been rehashed at least 4 or 5 times on this thread.
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Post by unitspin on Mar 25, 2021 12:59:11 GMT -5
Top 3 is pretty much a consensus (Rocker, Leiter and Lawlar) in some order. Law, Fangraphs and ESPN (McDaniel) had Mayer outside the Top 5 in their most recent updates. It would really suck if we had ended up with the 3 pick. Then the entire discussion here would be, whoever's left.
I read the BA reports--first attention I've paid to this in months--and really like what they said about Mayer.
If we miss out on rocker and Leiter, mayer is who I would want so that is good to hear.
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Post by dyoungteach on Mar 25, 2021 13:10:29 GMT -5
So I went end did a deep dive on top 5 picks since 2010:
Pitchers: tailor, Pomeranz, Cole, hultzen, Bauer, gausman, zimmer, appel, gray, Stewart, aiken, kolek, rondon, Tate, anderson, pint, greene, gore, mckay, wright, mize.
Of those listed: COLE. BAUER are definite aces. Anderson is potential 2-3, gore is great top prospect, mize is a could be top 3. 3/5 are who knows yet honestly but could be.
So counting those 3. You have 5/22 that are pretty good picks
Hitters:
Harper, machado, colon, starling, Correa, buxton, zunino, Bryant, schwarber, Gordon, Swanson, Bregman, rodgers, tucker, moniak, senzel, ray, lewis, bart, bohm, madrigal, india, rutschman, Witt, vaughn, bleday, greene, torkelson
Hits: Harper machado. Correa. Buxton ( top prospect at one time). Bryant. Swanson. Bregman. Tucker. Lewis. Bohm. Rutschman Witt. Vaughn. Greene. Torkelson.
I left off schwarber and senzel and madrigal. ( equal to mize).
That’s 15/28.
And that’s NOT including those 3 I mentioned. That’s a 50% hit rate.
I’ll let everyone else decide. But facts show above.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 25, 2021 13:15:56 GMT -5
I think both sides have doubled down on the do you take a pitcher with a top 5 pick debate. Not saying I don’t like a healthy debate fellas but this particular one has been rehashed at least 4 or 5 times on this thread. To try and move the question forward a bit... I keep seeing the pro-pitcher argument being expressed more or less as: "we should draft a pitcher because pitchers are really important."
My question for those folks would be: would you draft a pitcher with the super high pick even if they have a higher chance of washing out than a position player? Which is, I think, what the draft history suggests.
My thinking is that a position player picked #4 might have, say, a 40% chance of success, whereas for a pitcher it's 30% - a 10% difference. Whereas at pick #20 a position player has maybe a 20% chance of success, vs. 15% for a pitcher. So there's a 10% "risk tax" when you're drafting #4, but that falls to 5% at #20. (Semi-arbitrary numbers; just demonstrating a principle.)
Now obviously you want to draft some pitchers. My logic would be that you'd just want to do it with later picks, when the risk tax is lower.
And the other caveat is that if the player that is far and away the best available at #4 is a pitcher, then of course you ought to take the pitcher, since the gap in talent would outweigh the abstract risk tax. I certainly won't complain, as things stand, if Rocker or Leiter falls to #4 and the Red Sox take them. But if it's the case that they're both gone and the best available pitcher appears comparable to the best available position player, I'd rather take the latter. And I certainly wouldn't go out of my way to take the best pitcher available just on the grounds that free agent pitchers are expensive so we need to develop our own or something.
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Post by stevedillard on Mar 25, 2021 15:13:46 GMT -5
We can all agree no body takes a catcher in the top 5, though.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Mar 25, 2021 15:20:56 GMT -5
I was checking some of these kids stats and in 20 games Jordan Lawlar has 15 Ks in just 77 PAs ( nearly 20% K rate), Brady House on the other hand K'd just 3 times in 15 games. Small sample size and all but I'm still on the Marcelo "Smooth" Mayer's bandwagon
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 25, 2021 15:22:16 GMT -5
I haven't really paid much attention to this discussion because it seems pretty pointless but if your argument is "there have been pitchers that have been drafted outside the top 5 that have been good" then... you're going about it wrong. Yes, if you compare a sample of 100 players versus a sample of thousands, you're probably going to have more hits in the latter sample. But what's important is the hit RATE. So your saying hit rate of pitchers in top 5 is great vs hitters? I absolutely disagree No, I'm saying the hit rate of top 5 picks, regardless of positions, is going to be higher than the hit rate of later picks, but you'll have a higher sheer volume of hits later because you have more opportunities. That is what you seem to not understand.
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Post by ramireja on Mar 25, 2021 16:08:36 GMT -5
I was checking some of these kids stats and in 20 games Jordan Lawlar has 15 Ks in just 77 PAs ( nearly 20% K rate), Brady House on the other hand K'd just 3 times in 15 games. Small sample size and all but I'm still on the Marcelo "Smooth" Mayer's bandwagon Dang, nice find. That's pretty shocking for a guy that some evaluators want to put a future 60 grade on the hit tool.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 25, 2021 16:30:07 GMT -5
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Post by dyoungteach on Mar 25, 2021 16:53:11 GMT -5
So your saying hit rate of pitchers in top 5 is great vs hitters? I absolutely disagree No, I'm saying the hit rate of top 5 picks, regardless of positions, is going to be higher than the hit rate of later picks, but you'll have a higher sheer volume of hits later because you have more opportunities. That is what you seem to not understand. I get it. But the busy rate is pretty dang high WHILE you pass up some really good 3-5 year plus starters on offense. That’s just foolish when you can get the pitchers later or another way
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Post by dyoungteach on Mar 25, 2021 16:54:06 GMT -5
I was checking some of these kids stats and in 20 games Jordan Lawlar has 15 Ks in just 77 PAs ( nearly 20% K rate), Brady House on the other hand K'd just 3 times in 15 games. Small sample size and all but I'm still on the Marcelo "Smooth" Mayer's bandwagon I’ve been on house since day 1. Mayer seems to be really gaining also. $$$$$ will play a part I think
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Post by soxinsf on Mar 25, 2021 17:48:15 GMT -5
I think both sides have doubled down on the do you take a pitcher with a top 5 pick debate. Not saying I don’t like a healthy debate fellas but this particular one has been rehashed at least 4 or 5 times on this thread. There is a reason why the football and basketball drafts have historically been much more widely followed events than the baseball drafts. It has to do with both the immediacy and the surety of the impacts made by the top players in those drafts. Baseball is not like that. One would expect a number 4 pick for the Pats or Celtics to have an immediate impact in his first year in the organization. Not so in baseball. That said, for an organization that needs to build up its pitching stock, taking a top-rated pitcher at 4, all else being equal, makes sense.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 25, 2021 18:05:44 GMT -5
I think both sides have doubled down on the do you take a pitcher with a top 5 pick debate. Not saying I don’t like a healthy debate fellas but this particular one has been rehashed at least 4 or 5 times on this thread. There is a reason why the football and basketball drafts have historically been much more widely followed events than the baseball drafts. It has to do with both the immediacy and the surety of the impacts made by the top players in those drafts. Baseball is not like that. One would expect a number 4 pick for the Pats or Celtics to have an immediate impact in his first year in the organization. Not so in baseball. That said, for an organization that needs to build up its pitching stock, taking a top-rated pitcher at 4, all else being equal, makes sense. I thought it was cuz people already knew who the basketball and football draftees were.
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Post by ramireja on Mar 25, 2021 18:05:47 GMT -5
We can all agree no body takes a catcher in the top 5, though. Well....not everyone exactly. . (Henry Davis fanclub leader here)
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 25, 2021 19:26:13 GMT -5
No, I'm saying the hit rate of top 5 picks, regardless of positions, is going to be higher than the hit rate of later picks, but you'll have a higher sheer volume of hits later because you have more opportunities. That is what you seem to not understand. I get it. But the busy rate is pretty dang high WHILE you pass up some really good 3-5 year plus starters on offense. That’s just foolish when you can get the pitchers later or another way It's a pretty gross oversimplification to just hand-wave it and say "oh, you can just get pitchers later". You can get hitters later too. That's why you take the guy whose eval you're most confident in regardless of position.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 25, 2021 20:35:17 GMT -5
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Post by Smittyw on Mar 25, 2021 20:47:40 GMT -5
I get it. But the busy rate is pretty dang high WHILE you pass up some really good 3-5 year plus starters on offense. That’s just foolish when you can get the pitchers later or another way It's a pretty gross oversimplification to just hand-wave it and say "oh, you can just get pitchers later". You can get hitters later too. That's why you take the guy whose eval you're most confident in regardless of position.Just give me BPA, baby, and don't overthink it. Weird that there's so much debate around this.
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Post by evanstonredsox on Mar 25, 2021 21:07:03 GMT -5
Kumar pitching against Mizzou on SEC network right now. Sitting 90-92 ... odd to see. Fastball is getting hit for a lot of long outs.
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