SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2021 MLB Draft
|
Post by manfred on Mar 25, 2021 21:27:34 GMT -5
It's a pretty gross oversimplification to just hand-wave it and say "oh, you can just get pitchers later". You can get hitters later too. That's why you take the guy whose eval you're most confident in regardless of position.Just give me BPA, baby, and don't overthink it. Weird that there's so much debate around this. I think everyone agrees, but identifying the best player is not always simple. I am asking this in all seriousness, because there may be cases, but: other than when teams look to go under slot, is there a reason they ever don’t *try* to draft the best available? I mean, when the Sox took Trey Ball, didn’t they think they were getting a great young player?
|
|
|
Post by vmoss on Mar 25, 2021 21:46:34 GMT -5
Is Chase Petty part of this draft class? Thanks.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Mar 25, 2021 22:02:27 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by tyler3 on Mar 25, 2021 23:55:59 GMT -5
Would be an interesting pick at 40
|
|
|
Post by tyler3 on Mar 26, 2021 0:01:13 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by unitspin on Mar 26, 2021 8:06:14 GMT -5
If only he could be like hill and keep his fastball above 95+ at all times and let up 4+ runs a game. Then he could be a special pitcher.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,173
Member is Online
|
Post by nomar on Mar 26, 2021 8:23:19 GMT -5
If only he could be like hill and keep his fastball above 95+ at all times and let up 4+ runs a game. Then he could be a special pitcher. I get your point, but even with his inconsistency, it’s not like people are even taking Rocker out of their top 3.
|
|
|
Post by dyoungteach on Mar 26, 2021 9:08:20 GMT -5
I get it. But the busy rate is pretty dang high WHILE you pass up some really good 3-5 year plus starters on offense. That’s just foolish when you can get the pitchers later or another way It's a pretty gross oversimplification to just hand-wave it and say "oh, you can just get pitchers later". You can get hitters later too. That's why you take the guy whose eval you're most confident in regardless of position. Well yeah. That’s common sense. But in top 5 picks history shows that your more likely to WASTE the pick picking a pitcher than a hitter. I hope we are on smarter side of history. Odds show you are more than likely to waste the pick and end with nothing if you take a pitcher in top 5 picks. That’s not a smart use of your opportunity!
|
|
|
Post by dyoungteach on Mar 26, 2021 9:11:17 GMT -5
It's a pretty gross oversimplification to just hand-wave it and say "oh, you can just get pitchers later". You can get hitters later too. That's why you take the guy whose eval you're most confident in regardless of position.Just give me BPA, baby, and don't overthink it. Weird that there's so much debate around this. I actually disagree using history as a gauge. I take a pitcher only if I gain a massive deduct at slot cost ( which won’t happen ) at which point I focus only on hitters given historical data with top 5 picks
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Mar 26, 2021 9:41:57 GMT -5
I might be wrong, but given that there are 8 offensive positions and only 1 pitcher, I suspect your odds of getting that future elite SS is higher with pick 2 than that future elite pitcher. Hey, I liked Dombrowski, so I’m fine with periodically giving up a #1 prospect another top-10 guy to get an ace starter. But if people want a different model, they gave to take a big leap of faith. But note: I’m not arguing they take a pitcher *merely* for its own sake. If there are only poor bets, sure take the SS. What I am saying is I *hope* there is an elite arm (and there appear to be at least four, so why wouldn’t there be) and that they take one. Shane Bieber. Jacob degrom Jesus luzardo. Griffin Channing Brandon woodruff. Nate Pearson Adam wainwright Walker buehler Felix Hernandez. Pedro Martinez. Noah syndergard Blake snell. Mike Clevinger Tarik skubal Clarke Schmidt What do all those names have in common? Not one of them are picked in top 5 picks of draft. Heck even sale wasn’t. So no you don’t have to mortgage future to get one. You need to have a concerted effort to draft and develop pitching through both international and domestic “drafts” or signings and need to spend some high picks on them BUT no way does it have to be a once in a century top 4 pick in the draft with plenty of quality middle infield depth in the draft!! So sorry but your wrong the spin that if they don’t take a pitcher at 4 they will have to either spend money or trade to get one is just plain wrong. It is right if they don’t develop pitchers but it doesn’t have to be here. No way no how You've been beating this drum a lot, but there's nothing backing it up. Mike Trout and Mooke Betts weren't taken in the Top 4 either. Strasburg, Bauer, and Cole all were. The rate of hits at #4 on pitchers and hitters is about the same. 2010: Dustin Ackley was the first position player taken in 2010, right after Stephen Strasburg. At #4, the Royals took shortstop Chirstian Colon ahead of Drew Pomeranz. The pitcher was the right choice. 2011: Bubba Starling was the first position player taken in 2011, in a stacked draft and immediately after the Cole/Hultzen/Bauer/Bundy quartet. 2012: Kevin Gausman was taken 4th - the first position player taken after that was Albert Almora. 2013: Disaster of a draft. I don't think particularly highly of Clint Frazier, but he was probably better than Kohl Stewart at #4. 2014: the 4-8 picks were Kyle Schwarber (good start, already been nontendered), Nick Gordon, Alex Jackson, and Aaron Nola. There is no question that the pitcher would've been the right choice at 4. 2015 draft: Dillon Tate went 4th, followed by Kyle Tucker, Tyler Jay, Andrew Benintendi, and Carson Fulmer. Up until a year ago, Benintendi seemed like he would've been the best pick now, but he might be toast. Position players rank ahead of the hitters in that one though. 2016: Riley Pint at #4, followed by Corey Ray, AJ Puk, and Braxton Garrett. Pitchers all the way here. 2017: Brendan McKay went 4th so they covered both ends. Followed by Kyle Wright, and Austin Beck. 2018: Nick Madrigal at 4, followed by Jonathan India, Jered Kelenic, and Ryan Weathers. Too early to tell, but three of those four are looking really good, and India is the one to be bearish on. 2019: This was obviously a draft to take a position player. Though Nick Lodolo, the only pitcher taken in the top 10, also looks outstanding. We're all still feeling burned about Trey Ball, who was a very 1993 type of draft pick, but the problem wasn't that he was a pitcher - it was that the Red Sox did a good job evaluating hitters in that era and a terrible job evaluating pitchers.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Mar 26, 2021 9:42:07 GMT -5
Just give me BPA, baby, and don't overthink it. Weird that there's so much debate around this. I actually disagree using history as a gauge. I take a pitcher only if I gain a massive deduct at slot cost ( which won’t happen ) at which point I focus only on hitters given historical data with top 5 picks Yeah. I don't know why pitchers have a lower success rate, but my guess is that teams are plenty good at evaluating their talent and pitchers are just less likely to reach the potential their talent and prior performance would suggest, whether that's because of a greater injury risk or just something about the nature of pitching. So if the "best player available" is a pitcher they might still be less likely to succeed than the best available position player.
Like I said above, if there's a meaningful gap between the best pitcher and best position player, then it could still be smart to take the pitcher. But if it's close, give me the position player.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Mar 26, 2021 9:47:47 GMT -5
Shane Bieber. Jacob degrom Jesus luzardo. Griffin Channing Brandon woodruff. Nate Pearson Adam wainwright Walker buehler Felix Hernandez. Pedro Martinez. Noah syndergard Blake snell. Mike Clevinger Tarik skubal Clarke Schmidt What do all those names have in common? Not one of them are picked in top 5 picks of draft. Heck even sale wasn’t. So no you don’t have to mortgage future to get one. You need to have a concerted effort to draft and develop pitching through both international and domestic “drafts” or signings and need to spend some high picks on them BUT no way does it have to be a once in a century top 4 pick in the draft with plenty of quality middle infield depth in the draft!! So sorry but your wrong the spin that if they don’t take a pitcher at 4 they will have to either spend money or trade to get one is just plain wrong. It is right if they don’t develop pitchers but it doesn’t have to be here. No way no how You've been beating this drum a lot, but there's nothing backing it up. Mike Trout and Mooke Betters weren't taken in the Top 4 either. Strasburg, Bauer, and Cole all were. The rate of hits at #4 on pitchers and hitters is about the same. This is sort of true for #4 picks specifically, but for the larger sample of 1-5 picks overall position players have performed better. (At least up to 2015; it's TBD on more recent drafts, and it's conceivable teams have adjusted draft strategies since then.)
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Mar 26, 2021 9:51:29 GMT -5
You've been beating this drum a lot, but there's nothing backing it up. Mike Trout and Mooke Betters weren't taken in the Top 4 either. Strasburg, Bauer, and Cole all were. The rate of hits at #4 on pitchers and hitters is about the same. This is sort of true for #4 picks specifically, but for the larger sample of 1-5 picks overall position players have performed better. (At least up to 2015; it's TBD on more recent drafts, and it's conceivable teams have adjusted draft strategies since then.) But they're not picking 1-3. They're not getting the obvious world-destroying hitter like Bryce Harper or Kris Bryant (who doesn't exist in this draft anyway). And the busts at the top of the draft feel more sensational because they're seen as can't miss. Mark Appel was shocking. Brady Aiken - the shock was more that he was taken first, but then obviously everything that happened after. I'd agree that ***can't miss*** hitters are the surest thing, but that's not what you're dealing with at the 4th pick. EDIT: And that doesn't mean that if they pick a pitcher it's the right move. It comes down to specifics. If Rocker and Leiter are off the board, there are at least four position players I like more than the next available pitcher. "They need to draft a pitcher for organizational need" is the wrong mindset too. But the idea that a position player is inherently better than a pitcher at #4 doesn't add up.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Mar 26, 2021 10:02:50 GMT -5
This is sort of true for #4 picks specifically, but for the larger sample of 1-5 picks overall position players have performed better. (At least up to 2015; it's TBD on more recent drafts, and it's conceivable teams have adjusted draft strategies since then.) But they're not picking 1-3. They're not getting the obvious world-destroying hitter like Bryce Harper or Kris Bryant (who doesn't exist in this draft anyway). And the busts at the top of the draft feel more sensational because they're seen as can't miss. Mark Appel was shocking. Brady Aiken - the shock was more that he was taken first, but then obviously everything that happened after. I'd agree that ***can't miss*** hitters are the surest thing, but that's not what you're dealing with at the 4th pick. I'd be happy to look at the question more concretely then. In this draft, if there's a clear top 4 of Rocker/Leiter/Lawlar/Mayer, then it's pretty simple: take whoever's left at 4. If it's a top 3 of Rocker/Leiter/Lawlar and then a scrum of guys that all seem close, I'd hope they take a position player. That's basically the upshot of all this for me.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Mar 26, 2021 10:04:49 GMT -5
Tangentially related: I know he spells his name differently, but if they draft Lawlar we're calling him The King.
|
|
|
Post by Canseco on Mar 26, 2021 10:17:06 GMT -5
Tangentially related: I know he spells his name differently, but if they draft Lawlar we're calling him The King. Once he makes the bigs, his showdowns at Kauffman Stadium will be historic.
|
|
|
Post by dyoungteach on Mar 26, 2021 11:05:50 GMT -5
Shane Bieber. Jacob degrom Jesus luzardo. Griffin Channing Brandon woodruff. Nate Pearson Adam wainwright Walker buehler Felix Hernandez. Pedro Martinez. Noah syndergard Blake snell. Mike Clevinger Tarik skubal Clarke Schmidt What do all those names have in common? Not one of them are picked in top 5 picks of draft. Heck even sale wasn’t. So no you don’t have to mortgage future to get one. You need to have a concerted effort to draft and develop pitching through both international and domestic “drafts” or signings and need to spend some high picks on them BUT no way does it have to be a once in a century top 4 pick in the draft with plenty of quality middle infield depth in the draft!! So sorry but your wrong the spin that if they don’t take a pitcher at 4 they will have to either spend money or trade to get one is just plain wrong. It is right if they don’t develop pitchers but it doesn’t have to be here. No way no how You've been beating this drum a lot, but there's nothing backing it up. Mike Trout and Mooke Betters weren't taken in the Top 4 either. Strasburg, Bauer, and Cole all were. The rate of hits at #4 on pitchers and hitters is about the same. 2010: Dustin Ackley was the first position player taken in 2010, right after Stephen Strasburg. At #4, the Royals took shortstop Chirstian Colon ahead of Drew Pomeranz. The pitcher was the right choice. 2011: Bubba Starling was the first position player taken in 2011, in a stacked draft and immediately after the Cole/Hultzen/Bauer/Bundy quartet. 2012: Kevin Gausman was taken 4th - the first position player taken after that was Albert Almora. 2013: Disaster of a draft. I don't think particularly highly of Clint Frazier, but he was probably better than Kohl Stewart at #4. 2014: the 4-8 picks were Kyle Schwarber (good start, already been nontendered), Nick Gordon, Alex Jackson, and Aaron Nola. There is no question that the pitcher would've been the right choice at 4. 2015 draft: Dillon Tate went 4th, followed by Kyle Tucker, Tyler Jay, Andrew Benintendi, and Carson Fulmer. Up until a year ago, Benintendi seemed like he would've been the best pick now, but he might be toast. Position players rank ahead of the hitters in that one though. 2016: Riley Pint at #4, followed by Corey Ray, AJ Puk, and Braxton Garrett. Pitchers all the way here. 2017: Brendan McKay went 4th so they covered both ends. Followed by Kyle Wright, and Austin Beck. 2018: Nick Madrigal at 4, followed by Jonathan India, Jered Kelenic, and Ryan Weathers. Too early to tell, but three of those four are looking really good, and India is the one to be bearish on. 2019: This was obviously a draft to take a position player. Though Nick Lodolo, the only pitcher taken in the top 10, also looks outstanding. We're all still feeling burned about Trey Ball, who was a very 1993 type of draft pick, but the problem wasn't that he was a pitcher - it was that the Red Sox did a good job evaluating hitters in that era and a terrible job evaluating pitchers. No stats to back it up? Look at yesterday’s post. I posted every single hitter and pitcher drafted in last 11 years picked in top 5. Out of those 48% of hitters became a “hit”. Ie a starter or high end prospect where we could trade said prospect for a number 1 starter with years of service to go. ( Bauer was traded for Taylor trammel). 48%. Now looking at pitchers the “hit” rate was well below 20%. And MANY of them became drop fodder or nothing. What the heck do you want for stats if you aren’t willing to look at the last 11 YEARS of draft picks. Literally the ONLY two pitchers become an ace were gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer. That’s in 11 YEARS. And plenty of them became flame outs. Drops. Didn’t make majors. Good for nothing wasted picks. Again I ask. What do you want for stats? History is best stat. I can do this for 20 years also. It’s not much better.
|
|
|
Post by dyoungteach on Mar 26, 2021 11:11:09 GMT -5
This is sort of true for #4 picks specifically, but for the larger sample of 1-5 picks overall position players have performed better. (At least up to 2015; it's TBD on more recent drafts, and it's conceivable teams have adjusted draft strategies since then.) But they're not picking 1-3. They're not getting the obvious world-destroying hitter like Bryce Harper or Kris Bryant (who doesn't exist in this draft anyway). And the busts at the top of the draft feel more sensational because they're seen as can't miss. Mark Appel was shocking. Brady Aiken - the shock was more that he was taken first, but then obviously everything that happened after. I'd agree that ***can't miss*** hitters are the surest thing, but that's not what you're dealing with at the 4th pick. EDIT: And that doesn't mean that if they pick a pitcher it's the right move. It comes down to specifics. If Rocker and Leiter are off the board, there are at least four position players I like more than the next available pitcher. "They need to draft a pitcher for organizational need" is the wrong mindset too. But the idea that a position player is inherently better than a pitcher at #4 doesn't add up. I guess I disagree and time will tell. Mayer, lawyer, house are all top grade hitting prospects that I would take above Kumar rocker. Leiter maybe but I suspect Leiter is gone before us. I’m taking any of those 3 above Leiter or rocker or any pitcher though. ( without knowing money demands)
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Mar 26, 2021 11:33:18 GMT -5
I need to push back a little on the idea that there is a clear top 3, or top 4, or top whatever. This is fluid. There may be general consensus in the industry in that range at this very moment, but if you lock yourself into thinking that the elite is firmly established 3-4 months left before the draft, you're doing yourself a disservice. This will always be fluid. Just like when we analyze the draft 7 years later and do a re-draft...the top 10 players won't be the top 10 draft picks. Evaluators need to remain open-minded in my opinion.
Lawlar in my mind with a 20% K-rate in HS could fall. That stat warrants an explanation.
|
|
|
Post by unitspin on Mar 26, 2021 11:41:46 GMT -5
If only he could be like hill and keep his fastball above 95+ at all times and let up 4+ runs a game. Then he could be a special pitcher. I get your point, but even with his inconsistency, it’s not like people are even taking Rocker out of their top 3. I get it but the constant nitpicking gets old on some of these players that have proved far more then those being mentioned in their draft group. Rocker has the best second offering pitch I have ever seen coming out of college. Better then the verlander and price's of the world so the kid if he hits his ceiling could be a once in a generational talent or he could be a bust, not disputing that. But as another poster said recently the HS bats strikeout rates are pretty high for the love they are getting. I am big Leiter fan but in no way do I think if kumar hits his ceiling even at his best Leiter could not beat that. The kid is special so some hack on Twitter posting about his velocity to discount him is a joke.
|
|
|
Post by tyler3 on Mar 26, 2021 11:55:30 GMT -5
Joe Doyle is a big Kumar fan and has him listed #1 on prospectslive. Kumar’s last game wasn’t his best, which is to say, pretty damn good.
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 26, 2021 11:58:06 GMT -5
I get your point, but even with his inconsistency, it’s not like people are even taking Rocker out of their top 3. I get it but the constant nitpicking gets old on some of these players that have proved far more then those being mentioned in their draft group. Rocker has the best second offering pitch I have ever seen coming out of college. Better then the verlander and price's of the world so the kid if he hits his ceiling could be a once in a generational talent or he could be a bust, not disputing that. But as another poster said recently the HS bats strikeout rates are pretty high for the love they are getting. I am big Leiter fan but in no way do I think if kumar hits his ceiling even at his best Leiter could not beat that. The kid is special so some hack on Twitter posting about his velocity to discount him is a joke. What? I don't know how you could read that tweet as him trying to discount Rocker...he was just making an observation. Should he not have noted that his velo was down?
|
|
|
Post by tyler3 on Mar 26, 2021 12:02:34 GMT -5
Also it will be interesting to see how Leiter does today. Both he and Kumar had phenomenal games last week but the pitch count was pretty high.
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 26, 2021 12:04:47 GMT -5
It’s definitely something to monitor. Injury risk is why I lean hitter in this whole ongoing discussion, that and the Red Sox being good at evaluating hitters I trust them with that.
Sometimes velocity being down is a precursor to injury so it definitely needs to be monitored going forward.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Mar 26, 2021 12:15:41 GMT -5
I need to push back a little on the idea that there is a clear top 3, or top 4, or top whatever. This is fluid. There may be general consensus in the industry in that range at this very moment, but if you lock yourself into thinking that the elite is firmly established 3-4 months left before the draft, you're doing yourself a disservice. This will always be fluid. Just like when we analyze the draft 7 years later and do a re-draft...the top 10 players won't be the top 10 draft picks. Evaluators need to remain open-minded in my opinion. Lawlar in my mind with a 20% K-rate in HS could fall. That stat warrants an explanation. I agree! I was just speaking in hypotheticals, or an "if the draft were held today" sense.
The basic idea I was trying to illustrate is pretty simple: if there's a big gap between the best pitcher available and best position player available, take the pitcher. If it's close, take the position player.
|
|
|