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Post by tyler3 on Mar 26, 2021 12:16:49 GMT -5
I mean I understand unitspin’s point in the fact that I am the leading slanderer of old Kumar. My opinions on him are not very original and stem from like two analysts. My main concern with him at the beginning of the season was that his velocity would always drop significantly in the middle innings and he essentially became a one pitch pitcher (now the pitch is double plus). What I loved seeing from him last week was dominating late into the game with his fastball command and velocity holding, and then the use of his cutter and slider was just unfair. He looked to me like a starter at the next level. Yesterday velocity, strikeouts, command, all down a bit on a chilly day. Just something I’ll will monitor going forward on my own. I’ll stop re-hashing it on here.
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Post by unitspin on Mar 26, 2021 13:49:03 GMT -5
I get it but the constant nitpicking gets old on some of these players that have proved far more then those being mentioned in their draft group. Rocker has the best second offering pitch I have ever seen coming out of college. Better then the verlander and price's of the world so the kid if he hits his ceiling could be a once in a generational talent or he could be a bust, not disputing that. But as another poster said recently the HS bats strikeout rates are pretty high for the love they are getting. I am big Leiter fan but in no way do I think if kumar hits his ceiling even at his best Leiter could not beat that. The kid is special so some hack on Twitter posting about his velocity to discount him is a joke. What? I don't know how you could read that tweet as him trying to discount Rocker...he was just making an observation. Should he not have noted that his velo was down? If he mentioned his pitching line then threw that in as a side note then yes you would be spot on. But when you throw that out there as a stand alone comment then yes you are using it to discount said player. I'm not even on the kumar train bcs we have no chance at getting him but the hate the kid gets is laughable. I wish ppl here used the same metrics you do on these prospects on the current red sox roster. If you did you would be crying at how weak the starting rotation is right now.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,534
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Post by radiohix on Mar 26, 2021 15:36:36 GMT -5
Gunnar >>>> Kumar
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 26, 2021 15:52:30 GMT -5
What? I don't know how you could read that tweet as him trying to discount Rocker...he was just making an observation. Should he not have noted that his velo was down? If he mentioned his pitching line then threw that in as a side note then yes you would be spot on. But when you throw that out there as a stand alone comment then yes you are using it to discount said player. I'm not even on the kumar train bcs we have no chance at getting him but the hate the kid gets is laughable. I wish ppl here used the same metrics you do on these prospects on the current red sox roster. If you did you would be crying at how weak the starting rotation is right now. I mean, the guy has Rocker as his #1 draft prospect ( link), so I'm not really sure what "hate" you're talking about.
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Post by ramireja on Mar 26, 2021 16:32:47 GMT -5
I need to push back a little on the idea that there is a clear top 3, or top 4, or top whatever. This is fluid. There may be general consensus in the industry in that range at this very moment, but if you lock yourself into thinking that the elite is firmly established 3-4 months left before the draft, you're doing yourself a disservice. This will always be fluid. Just like when we analyze the draft 7 years later and do a re-draft...the top 10 players won't be the top 10 draft picks. Evaluators need to remain open-minded in my opinion. Lawlar in my mind with a 20% K-rate in HS could fall. That stat warrants an explanation. I agree! I was just speaking in hypotheticals, or an "if the draft were held today" sense.
The basic idea I was trying to illustrate is pretty simple: if there's a big gap between the best pitcher available and best position player available, take the pitcher. If it's close, take the position player.
I definitely wasn't trying to target you incandenza...your posts are the least of my high blood pressure issues. ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png) . In looking back at the last page of comments, I can't even recall what triggered me. I think I'm stuck on a comment from pages back suggesting we were picking in a bad spot at #4 with such a clearly defined upper echelon of 3 in this draft.
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Post by tyler3 on Mar 26, 2021 17:47:30 GMT -5
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Post by tyler3 on Mar 26, 2021 19:50:20 GMT -5
Just to send unitspin over the edge:) you know I love you you big man.
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Post by unitspin on Mar 26, 2021 21:06:54 GMT -5
Just to send unitspin over the edge:) you know I love you you big man. Big fan hope he drops to us. The command of his aresnal is impressive.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 26, 2021 21:27:56 GMT -5
7 no hit so far today. Leiter is the hottest pitcher on the planet right now just shoving.
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Post by tyler3 on Mar 26, 2021 22:09:55 GMT -5
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Post by semperfisox on Mar 27, 2021 7:45:09 GMT -5
Leiter won’t be there at 4
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Post by wOBA Fett on Mar 27, 2021 11:30:24 GMT -5
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Post by wOBA Fett on Mar 27, 2021 11:48:56 GMT -5
Leiter won’t be there at 4 I think the Tigers go SS. They are really top heavy at pitching in the organization and haven't had much luck drafting Pitchers in the first round to date.
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Post by jbuttah on Mar 27, 2021 12:56:04 GMT -5
Discounting any potential health issues, I don't think there's anyway that either Leiter or Rocker makes it to 4. The most likely scenario seems to be that the Sox will pick between Lawlar and Mayer, whoever is still there. This also seems to be a great year to be drafting anywhere in the top 10.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Mar 27, 2021 13:16:54 GMT -5
Discounting any potential health issues, I don't think there's anyway that either Leiter or Rocker makes it to 4. The most likely scenario seems to be that the Sox will pick between Lawlar and Mayer, whoever is still there. This also seems to be a great year to be drafting anywhere in the top 10. I think Pitt goes top pitcher at 1 and Texas goes local SS at 2. Then that leaves Detroit at 3 and they moved Riley Green to the outfield already. Will be interesting.
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Post by tyler3 on Mar 27, 2021 16:53:57 GMT -5
I think Kumar and Jack are still possible at 4. Just takes one of the three teams Above us to cut a deal. Any velocity dip or rough games at the end of the season. Kumar and Jack have been celebrities for a while and aren’t taking a deal. Teams at the top make deals all the time. Didn’t think Austin Martin was going 5th last year which means teams 1 through 4 passed on the guy that everyone thought had the shot to dethrone Spencer.
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Post by dyoungteach on Mar 27, 2021 17:20:50 GMT -5
Let’s hope 2 of top 3 go rocker and Leiter. We will be reading many posters complaining about that pick for years to come when it doesn’t pan out if not
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Post by jdog2020 on Mar 27, 2021 17:57:10 GMT -5
Mason Black with another impressive outing. He's a pitcher I am targeting in the 2nd or 3rd round.
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Post by unitspin on Mar 27, 2021 20:03:32 GMT -5
Wow Fabian has been awful lately along with hill I could see both dropping moving forward if it continues. As for rocker or leiter dropping to us anything is possible. Only takes a difference of opinion and we can drool for the next 3 years on this board following every minor league game their in.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 27, 2021 20:14:58 GMT -5
Discounting any potential health issues, I don't think there's anyway that either Leiter or Rocker makes it to 4. The most likely scenario seems to be that the Sox will pick between Lawlar and Mayer, whoever is still there. This also seems to be a great year to be drafting anywhere in the top 10. I agree. At this point Leiter and Rocker are clearly the best this draft class has to offer. Yes it could change, but barring that, there's no way that 2 of the 3 teams ahead of the Red Sox (really wished they would have lost that last game last season) pass on those pitchers. I know there's the local Lawlor angle, but I don't see how that supercedes what appears to be the superior talent (and yeah, I'd question that high K rate for Lawlor thus far) if I'm Texas picking 2nd. And with Detroit, if they have a shot at either Leiter or Rocker, I don't see how they pass that up. You can never have too much top notch talented young starting pitching. I'd be stunned if either of those two starters continue to dominate and somehow fall to #4. I'd be thrilled if the Sox got either one of those pitchers, but I don't see it. Maybe Texas goes with Lawlor, but even so I think Detroit would grab a pitcher with the #3 spot. Thus far it looks like those two pitchers are the elite of this year's draft. Lawlor has some question marks. I like Mayer and think he's a realistic chance to be the #4 pick and I'd be happy with that. But at this point I think it's those two pitchers and the rest are interchangeable.
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Post by ramireja on Mar 27, 2021 23:13:47 GMT -5
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,006
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Post by jimoh on Mar 28, 2021 7:23:07 GMT -5
Wow Fabian has been awful lately along with hill I could see both dropping moving forward if it continues. As for rocker or leiter dropping to us anything is possible. Only takes a difference of opinion and we can drool for the next 3 years on this board following every minor league game their in. Interesting, also from Joe Doyle; interesting for more than just Fabian: "Fabian struggles with the same issues many of today’s hitters at the major league level struggle with, how to combat the high fastball when your swing is designed to “elevate and celebrate”. ...steep attack angles giveth and steep attack angles taketh. The same thing that allows Fabian to mash breaking balls and really anything low in the zone is the same thing that causes his struggles versus elevated fastballs. The lesson here is there’s a reason guys are attacking high, and it’s to combat hitters like Jud. ...Fabian has a bat path that allows him to hit for power, but also creates some swing and miss versus pitches in a very particular spot of the zone. The question any player development executive must ask is, “Is this fixable?”. Unfortunately I don’t know if we have that answer. What I do know is Jud Fabian never stopped being good." www.prospectslive.com/mlb-draft/2021/3/26/jud-fabian-has-an-issue
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 28, 2021 9:33:33 GMT -5
I had kinda written Frelick off as more of a sentimental pick before the season started but he's the kind of the profile that Boston has succeeded with for almost 20 years now. If he was 6'1" he'd probably be consensus Top 5 at this point, right? He's really playing great this year.
I swear I'm not just repping the Middlesex League with this post.
I might be a little bit.
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Post by agastonguay13 on Mar 28, 2021 12:02:56 GMT -5
I had kinda written Frelick off as more of a sentimental pick before the season started but he's the kind of the profile that Boston has succeeded with for almost 20 years now. If he was 6'1" he'd probably be consensus Top 5 at this point, right? He's really playing great this year. I swear I'm not just repping the Middlesex League with this post. I might be a little bit. I mentioned him earlier in the thread. I know there are teams now who try to ignore more superficial reasons to discount a player, but Frelick has a lot of those things working against him. He's smaller, he's a northeast guy, and he's not from a traditional powerhouse school. I wondered if all three of those would combine to push him to the second round where the Red Sox could snag him.
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Post by tyler3 on Mar 28, 2021 13:10:34 GMT -5
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