badfishnbc
Veteran
Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 428
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Post by badfishnbc on Mar 31, 2021 9:07:37 GMT -5
Another guy to monitor when considering underslot. Question: what's the argument for underslot this year. Like, I get the reason you might do so when drafting later in the round. But given the once-in-a-long-while opportunity that the Sox have this year with this pick (the likes of which we'll hopefully not see again for a long time) don't you have an obligation to draft your best-rated player, regardless of their dollar ask?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 31, 2021 10:07:57 GMT -5
I think it is relative. If their 5th guy on the list is going to take, say, $1.5M less than the 4th guy on their list, then it might be worthwhile in order to get a better guy at 40.
This is different than, say, taking Cannon to save like $400k to give to Blake Loubier. We're talking Correa+McCullers > Buxton or Appel territory where you still think the player is worth taking there.
I don't know that I'd want them to do what the Orioles did last year, going way under slot with Kjerstad who was only slightly a reach and going way over slot in rounds 4 and 5, unless the internal scouting is that Kjerstad is only the slightest-if any-step down from an Austin Martin or something and that the entire draft class gets phenomenally better saving that money and moving it.
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Post by tyler3 on Mar 31, 2021 12:10:41 GMT -5
The think about Bachman is his delivery, not the most fluid thing. However the stuff..well the stuff is just nasty. Can he stay healthy? The week or two off due to soreness didn’t help.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 31, 2021 12:44:10 GMT -5
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Post by dyoungteach on Mar 31, 2021 14:56:40 GMT -5
The. Oh thing not. Ring talked about with that second round pick is $$$$. Last year the Sox grabbed a high end player in blaze Jordan who had higher signing bonus. Tampa bay did this with mcclanahan and libertore and I believe several of their other prospects. I could see Red Sox bag $200-$500k extra with that first pick and take the highest upside pick in second round which often become high school pitchers. ( bitsko last year for Tampa bay). No matter what it should be a once every couple decade drafts for Red Sox. Ton of talent and high picks every round! I sure hope we end up with 2-3 future mlb players and one solid everyday player from this draft Pretty much the only thing they could do that would truly annoy me is if they go underslot with their first round pick (a rare opportunity to pick that high) and invest the savings in a high school pitcher (the riskiest bet you can make in the draft). I am not advocating for the Red Sox to do this. HOWEVER, this draft has a lot more talent in it than other drafts. Because of that the Sox might be looking at 6-7 kids who they like at that draft. If an advisor/parents/player is asking for $1 million over slot and another is asking for $750k under slot, and they feel they close in value...I could see the Sox pulling the trigger on going underslot. I feel that's exactly what they did last year with their pick. Additionally, they prioritized a player with their next pick that they were going to go way above slot for. With the Rays, it seems often this was a high school pitcher who was ranked near the top or a definite first round talent. I'm certainly not saying they should do this, but say House and Mayer are $1.5million apart in asking price...I could see the sox going the second route. I'm on record that I'ld like a hitter with that first pick, and I've now read (including here) 4 hitters that could go at that slot, not counting the college ones. It will be interesting to see the end result and where we turn; as I truly feel this could add a couple impact talents to our team.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Mar 31, 2021 17:04:43 GMT -5
don't you think that the Sox will show due diligence when it comes to the players asking prices? I am sure they will not be caught offguard from a price they won't accept. there has to be a lot of scouting and learning these kids before a pick is made.
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Post by soxaddict on Mar 31, 2021 19:14:44 GMT -5
Is Henry Davis in the conversation at 4 at this point? Wouldn't surprise me, another dude who is really putting together a great year. Hell yes on Henry Davis!
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Post by dyoungteach on Mar 31, 2021 22:45:40 GMT -5
don't you think that the Sox will show due diligence when it comes to the players asking prices? I am sure they will not be caught offguard from a price they won't accept. there has to be a lot of scouting and learning these kids before a pick is made. Absolutely. I highly doubt they are caught off guard any year. In fact it’s kinda a known thing that players will negotiate and agree to their bonus before the draft starts and then even “work their way down” to whatever team they have agreed to as the draft goes on
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Post by jdb on Apr 1, 2021 11:38:11 GMT -5
I wonder how Henry Davis would compare to Joey Bart coming out a few years ago.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 1, 2021 14:49:19 GMT -5
Bart's power had him in a different class than Davis.
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 1, 2021 19:12:35 GMT -5
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Post by jdb on Apr 1, 2021 19:52:14 GMT -5
Sounds like the velo down again tonight.
Kendall Rogers @kendallrogers Kumar Rocker struck out two in a scoreless third and now has five strikeouts. That last slider from him at 85 was his nastiest of the night so far. Fastball velocity was 90-91 that frame. @vandyboys #mlbdraft 8:24 PM · Apr 1, 2021·Twitter for iPhon
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 1, 2021 20:56:34 GMT -5
Sounds like the velo down again tonight. Kendall Rogers @kendallrogers Kumar Rocker struck out two in a scoreless third and now has five strikeouts. That last slider from him at 85 was his nastiest of the night so far. Fastball velocity was 90-91 that frame. @vandyboys #mlbdraft 8:24 PM · Apr 1, 2021·Twitter for iPhon
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 1, 2021 20:57:35 GMT -5
He ain't goin' #1 with that stuff....Top 10?
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Post by orion09 on Apr 1, 2021 21:25:43 GMT -5
If the velocity concerns continue, I wouldn’t be shocked if Kumar was available at #4, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see us go in a different direction.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 1, 2021 21:49:46 GMT -5
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Apr 1, 2021 22:28:35 GMT -5
Anyone know where the Sox fall?
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 1, 2021 22:34:41 GMT -5
It was calculated earlier in the thread since the slot values are staying the same as last year. Red Sox have the sixth largest bonus pool.
4 - $6,664,000 40 - $1,856,700 75 - $831,100 105 - $554,300 136 - $410,100 166 - $306,800 196 - $239,000 226 - $188,900 256 - $160,300 286 - $148,400
Total pool: $11,359,600 Total pool + 5%: $11,927,580
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Post by ramireja on Apr 2, 2021 12:14:28 GMT -5
Here is a table comparing college catchers drafted in the top half of the 1st round over the past 10 years. I bolded the best three values (or 4 when there was a tie) for each metric. As it stands now, Davis is up there with the best of them in BA, making contact, and arm strength. Obviously, we don't expect SBs from the catcher position, but Davis should lead the pack here too by season's end and if nothing else, is an indicator of his athleticism. He doesn't quite have the power as the top guys although he hits the ball very hard with less loft than elite power hitters. His receiving needs work but scouts project improvement with time and some think he could end up average to plus here given his athleticism. Name | Team | Draft Year | Pick | PA | BA | ISO | BB% | K% | SB(CS) | MLB.com
Arm | MLB.com
Field | Henry Davis | Louisville | 2021 | N/A | 100 | .370 | .247 | 14.0% | 8.0 | 8(1) | 70 | 45 | Patrick Bailey | NC State | 2020 | 13 | 282 | .288 | .225 | 14.5% | 15.2% | 1(0) | 55 | 55 | Adley Rutschman | Oregon St. | 2019 | 1 | 266 | .411 | .340 | 28.6% | 14.3% | 0(2) | 60 | 60 | Shea Langeliers | Baylor | 2019 | 9 | 207 | .308 | .222 | 8.7% | 14.0% | 4(2) | 70 | 60 | Joey Bart | Georgia Tech | 2018 | 2 | 272 | .359 | .273 | 15.1% | 20.6% | 3(0) | 60 | 55 | Zach Collins | Miami | 2016 | 10 | 274 | .363 | .305 | 28.5% | 19.3% | 1(3) | 45 | 40 | Kyle Schwarber | Indiana | 2014 | 4 | 280 | .358 | .301 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 10(3) | 40 | 40 | Max Pentecost | Kennesaw St. | 2014 | 11 | 306 | .422 | .205 | 9.8% | 8.5% | 17(3) | 55 | 50 | Mike Zunino | Florida | 2012 | 3 | 292 | .322 | .347 | 10.6% | 16.1% | 9(1) | N/A | N/A |
Some relevant notes: - These are all stats from players' junior years with the exception of Bailey whose junior year was cut short by the pandemic. I used his sophomore year stats here, but worth noting his junior year stats look similar albeit with more power. - Rutschman's sophomore year was also a big one as he hit >.400 with more BB than K. His bat separates himself from his peers here. - Bart's freshman and sophomore years did not look good from an approach standpoint...his Ks greatly outweighed his BBs before walking a ton his junior year. - You all probably know that Schwarber has now become an OF/DH type and Collins who I believe still plays C/1B could move off the position as well. - Its also probably worth noting Pentecost's level of competition in the Atlantic Sun League isn't on par with the rest here. If anyone is interested in any other data I can add to the table...let me know as I'll probably update as we get closer to the draft.
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Post by stevedillard on Apr 2, 2021 12:29:34 GMT -5
If the velocity concerns continue, I wouldn’t be shocked if Kumar was available at #4, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see us go in a different direction. Yes, he's the one of the "top 4" that I don't want them to draft. And I say that without ever having seen him pitch. Don't like pitchers that high, and he just sounds like too much risk beyond the normal risk.
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Post by jdog2020 on Apr 2, 2021 19:58:15 GMT -5
Jack Leiter and Jaden Hill are about to duel on ESPN2
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 2, 2021 20:15:51 GMT -5
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Post by unitspin on Apr 2, 2021 20:17:11 GMT -5
Jack Leiter and Jaden Hill are about to duel on ESPN2 Hill had a tough first inning. He might be a sinking ship out of the top ten.
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Post by swingingbunt on Apr 2, 2021 20:47:35 GMT -5
I'm bad luck apparently. Turned on the game, saw Hill throw one pitch, and now he is coming out of the game with an injury.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Apr 2, 2021 20:54:47 GMT -5
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