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Post by RedSoxStats on Apr 6, 2021 6:32:54 GMT -5
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 6, 2021 8:56:01 GMT -5
I’m shocked no house. He seems to be having a great spring. And has one of bigger hitting profiles in the draft. I’m also wondering if we can cross BOTH Mayer and lawlar off the boards now along with Leiter.
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Post by rismith on Apr 6, 2021 9:13:27 GMT -5
Might have to wait through surgeries but there is a real possibility you could take both Rocker in the first and Hill in the 2nd round. Not that they would do this but you technically "could". Imagine both recover from ails them in a few years (Hill gets TJ) and Rocker regains form. Who would have thought you could exit the draft with those two young pitchers? Both big sturdy frames with bulldog mentalities. Would be an interesting risk for sure with tremendous upside. Far more risk than they will likely take but interesting to think about...
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Post by jdog2020 on Apr 6, 2021 10:20:25 GMT -5
The college baseball season is still early. It's horrible news about Jaden Hill. Personally, I am not interested in him at pick #40. Too many better quality arms (see Mason Black in my previous post). As for the #4 pick, there will be plenty of decent options.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Apr 6, 2021 11:03:50 GMT -5
So when are you taking someone's board for 2021 and adding the years and months? IYCFT.
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 6, 2021 11:22:14 GMT -5
So when are you taking someone's board for 2021 and adding the years and months? IYCFT. Interesting read. I will say the difference in age between Lawlar and Mayers is like 6 months. However, the difference between Lawlar and House/Watson is like a legit full year.
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Post by rasimon on Apr 6, 2021 11:25:07 GMT -5
I’m shocked no house. He seems to be having a great spring. And has one of bigger hitting profiles in the draft. I’m also wondering if we can cross BOTH Mayer and lawlar off the boards now along with Leiter. are we (or the various draft rankers) putting too much weight on small sample from this Spring? Ultimately, we are interested in what a hig school/college prospect will become a few years down the road, not what he is at this second. Obviously, what he is today may influence your projection of what he will become down the road but it is not the only factor. Most of these college prospects and even some of the high school prospects have been well scouted for a few years. We probably already have a pretty good idea of what their current skill level is. But, and more so this year, it seems every time a guy has a few good or bad games he gets shuffled around in the rankings. I would just think the rankings, especially at the top, should be more sticky.
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Post by stevedillard on Apr 6, 2021 11:43:00 GMT -5
Question for those that follow the draft history. I note that Mayer is an old HS kid (Born 12/02) while the remaining HS kids are mostly 03s. In outliers theres the famous chapter on hockey and older kids being "better" because they're older than the competition. Should we discount him a bit because of this? I think Mayer is avg agewise compared to other players in the class. Lawlar is older for the class, will turn 19 before the draft I belive or shortly there after. House is young for the class won’t turn 18 until next year if he starts at a full season league next year he’d still be 17. Some teams put an emphasis on age while others don’t, I would say the Red Sox do not as they have drafted “older” and “younger” players anyways. As for my personal opinion I would say I like Mayer more than House because I think he is a better overall player. I don’t think a few months is enough of a difference to change that. They're behind the curve in that analysis. We had that discussion a month ago.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 6, 2021 12:08:51 GMT -5
I think Mayer is avg agewise compared to other players in the class. Lawlar is older for the class, will turn 19 before the draft I belive or shortly there after. House is young for the class won’t turn 18 until next year if he starts at a full season league next year he’d still be 17. Some teams put an emphasis on age while others don’t, I would say the Red Sox do not as they have drafted “older” and “younger” players anyways. As for my personal opinion I would say I like Mayer more than House because I think he is a better overall player. I don’t think a few months is enough of a difference to change that. They're behind the curve in that analysis. We had that discussion a month ago. Looks like they still have a leg up, the article is from October 2011.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Apr 6, 2021 12:57:07 GMT -5
As we get closer (yes I know it's still so far away) to draft time, I'm starting to come around on the idea of an underslot guy if Leiter/Rocker/Lawlar are gone. I could be very well talked into a guy like James Woods, and then meeting Chase Petty's demands at 40. Obviously 1000 things will change before the draft (RIP Jaden Hill), but man, there are some exciting scenarios with all this draft capital.
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 6, 2021 18:13:38 GMT -5
Hey speaking of fun picks at 40....
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jl1947
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Post by jl1947 on Apr 6, 2021 18:27:19 GMT -5
So when are you taking someone's board for 2021 and adding the years and months? IYCFT. Interesting read. I will say the difference in age between Lawlar and Mayers is like 6 months. However, the difference between Lawlar and House/Watson is like a legit full year. According to Baseball America, in terms of age at draft, Lawlar will be 19.0, Mayer 18.6, Watson 18.2 and House 18.1. So, not as big a difference between Lawlar and Mayer, but we know that the younger the age, the greater the steepness of the performance enhancement curve. www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/15295/doctoring-the-numbers-starting-them-young-part-one/The comparative performance this season between the two, by the reports I've seen, shows there has been a steeper upward curve for Mayer, especially as his body has begun to catch up to its upside projection at the same time his power is similarly projecting up. So while 0.4 years is not a lot, it is not nothing depending on whether the trajectory differential soon intercept between the two. If it's not small sample noise, it could be that Mayer is proving the hypothesis that was posited by the Baseball Prospectus study. What this says about both House and Watson is also interesting to think about.
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 6, 2021 19:34:21 GMT -5
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 6, 2021 21:36:15 GMT -5
Ok let’s go back to our potential 4 pick.
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 6, 2021 22:59:38 GMT -5
If Leiter is gone and no other pitcher emerges as a sure thing, I would lean towards Davis. Obviously, he has to convince that he is the next Buster Posey. But if their due diligence leads to that conclusion and there is no automatic pitcher at 4, then Davis seems like a great choice. Another multi hit/ multi RBI game from Davis today. His average is around .385, his OBP is .482, to go with his 7 dingers and 7 doubles that comes out to a 1.169 OPS that should ridiculous for a good catcher with a rocket arm....I mean the guys such a good athlete he has I think 9 steals. Has struck out 10 times all season. 2 for 3 with another dinger, a walk, and no strikeouts today for Henry Davis which means he is closing in on .400 ave, and 500 OBP. 8 home runs and counting.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 7, 2021 7:41:25 GMT -5
Good for Davis having a great year but I still find it hard to draft a catcher with good albeit limited offensive potential over a HS SS with a good glove and very high offensive ceiling like Mayer or Lawlar
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 7, 2021 10:39:55 GMT -5
Agreed, Mayer and Lawlar above Davis. Let’s see how Kumar’s velocity goes this week. The better Kumar does the better for everyone. Either he pushes the HS SSs down to us or he becomes a viable option at 4.
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Post by semperfisox on Apr 7, 2021 11:13:10 GMT -5
Mayer all day for me at this point.
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Post by ramireja on Apr 7, 2021 11:22:38 GMT -5
Hmmm...I think its really easy to dream on HS up-the-middle position players since we 1) don't really get to see them play often and when we do, its usually because they did something good that made a highlight, and 2) lack the amount of meaningful data that we can get from college players. That said, what makes people think that Lawlar or Mayer have higher offensive upside compared to Davis who already demonstrates the ideal combination of barrel % and exit velocities with a lack of K%? I will admit that Davis doesn't have the type of loft in his swing that would project to 30+ homers, so if you think thats what Lawlar or Mayer may become, then ok. I'm just not sure what people are basing those assumptions on though aside from a couple of scouting reports.
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Post by jbuttah on Apr 7, 2021 12:15:03 GMT -5
Can definitely envision a situation where the Sox value 3-4 players fairly equally and they pick the one who will sign for the least.
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Post by geostorm on Apr 7, 2021 12:36:43 GMT -5
www.mlb.com/news/kumar-rocker-vs-jack-leiter-scout-comparison?t=mlb-pipeline-coverageWhile Leiter and Rocker clearly are outstanding prospects, who's better? We posed that question to a wide swath of general managers, executives, scouting directors and area scouts. The result was 25-3 in favor of Leiter, with one executive declaring it a dead heat. That landslide overstates the difference between Leiter and Rocker, with most respondents expressing that they consider the two aces to be extremely close in talent. "It's hard to separate the two," a National League scouting director said. "Rocker is bigger, more physical and has more track record. Leiter just feels like he'll outperform him. I'm more confident with him reaching his ceiling than Rocker. Leiter has more feel and ability to use his weapons." The son of two-time All-Star and World Series champion Al Leiter has closed the gap in pure stuff this spring -- his plays better. While he can't reach Rocker's maximum fastball velocity, he's now sitting at 92-94 mph and Rocker has operated a tick below that in his last two starts. Leiter generates significantly more swings-and-misses with his heater in the strike zone thanks to its riding life and outstanding metrics, such as induced vertical break, and an American League assistant scouting director called it one of the best fastballs he's come across in any Draft.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 7, 2021 12:54:05 GMT -5
I still think there's some skepticism on Davis, since he's always been a good prospect but never like this.
It's also worth noting that the concern I had with Lawlar's strikeout numbers early in the year may be subsiding. In his last 12 games he has just five in 45 plate appearances, going 19 for 33 with 2 triples, 4 homers, and nine walks. Slash line of .576/.689/1.061 in that stretch. So he's been beating up high school pitching the way you'd expect of someone with his tools. Much more what I'd want to see than the .324/.469/.514 with 11 strikeouts without a homer in his first 49 PA.
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 7, 2021 13:48:38 GMT -5
Hmmm...I think its really easy to dream on HS up-the-middle position players since we 1) don't really get to see them play often and when we do, its usually because they did something good that made a highlight, and 2) lack the amount of meaningful data that we can get from college players. That said, what makes people think that Lawlar or Mayer have higher offensive upside compared to Davis who already demonstrates the ideal combination of barrel % and exit velocities with a lack of K%? I will admit that Davis doesn't have the type of loft in his swing that would project to 30+ homers, so if you think thats what Lawlar or Mayer may become, then ok. I'm just not sure what people are basing those assumptions on though aside from a couple of scouting reports. If I was being honest I would say as a fan I just love the ceiling the HS SSs present. If I was forced to be mature and defend the decision ...I’m not worried about Davis’s track record because last year was essentially his breakout year cut short, he got off to an insane start last year and the question was, was that for real? Looks like it was. The only real sticking point on Davis for me is his launch angle. It’s seems to me that Fenway is a particularly poor fit and a lot of his line drive home runs to left would turn into loud, long, hard singles. Also (and you don’t draft for need), there is no true SS with a plus hit tool in the Sox system and hadn’t been for a while. Having said that, love Davis, and his speed I think offsets some drawbacks from the wall.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Apr 7, 2021 14:13:23 GMT -5
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 7, 2021 14:37:15 GMT -5
Davis also caught for Reid Detmers, number 10 pick last year.
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