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2021 MLB Draft
nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 7, 2021 15:43:13 GMT -5
Hmmm...I think its really easy to dream on HS up-the-middle position players since we 1) don't really get to see them play often and when we do, its usually because they did something good that made a highlight, and 2) lack the amount of meaningful data that we can get from college players. That said, what makes people think that Lawlar or Mayer have higher offensive upside compared to Davis who already demonstrates the ideal combination of barrel % and exit velocities with a lack of K%? I will admit that Davis doesn't have the type of loft in his swing that would project to 30+ homers, so if you think thats what Lawlar or Mayer may become, then ok. I'm just not sure what people are basing those assumptions on though aside from a couple of scouting reports. My man here is a wizard! That is my exact thing (so I guess no response needed)
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Post by ramireja on Apr 7, 2021 15:47:22 GMT -5
I still think there's some skepticism on Davis, since he's always been a good prospect but never like this. It's also worth noting that the concern I had with Lawlar's strikeout numbers early in the year may be subsiding. In his last 12 games he has just five in 45 plate appearances, going 19 for 33 with 2 triples, 4 homers, and nine walks. Slash line of .576/.689/1.061 in that stretch. So he's been beating up high school pitching the way you'd expect of someone with his tools. Much more what I'd want to see than the .324/.469/.514 with 11 strikeouts without a homer in his first 49 PA. Perhaps its too small of a sample to give much weight, but Davis was doing exactly what he's doing now during his Sophomore year. 2020: 52 PA, .372 BA, 15.4% BB%, 7.7% K%, .326 ISO (3 HR, 5 2B), 1.178 OPS 2021: 120 PA, .385 BA, 14.2% BB%, 8.3% K%, .292 ISO (7 HR, 7 2B), 1.169 OPS ( I realize Davis has since hit an 8th HR so this line would look a tad better if it were fully up to date) I realize his freshman year isn't as impressive, but he certainly began the 2020 season looking like a guy who had improved significantly, especially in the power department....his approach numbers were fine from the beginning. I've also seen posts that his EVs were in the top few percentile in that sophomore year as well.
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 7, 2021 16:22:43 GMT -5
Agreed, Mayer and Lawlar above Davis. Let’s see how Kumar’s velocity goes this week. The better Kumar does the better for everyone. Either he pushes the HS SSs down to us or he becomes a viable option at 4. Or he becomes an option for someone above us or we watch another team take the risk after us and go gosh what could have been while looking at one of the 4 high school shortstops in our system. Let’s hope so
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 7, 2021 18:21:30 GMT -5
Right that’s what I meant by push the SSs our way, think you and I are on the same page as far as the first couple rounds of the draft:)
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 7, 2021 20:19:41 GMT -5
I still think there's some skepticism on Davis, since he's always been a good prospect but never like this. It's also worth noting that the concern I had with Lawlar's strikeout numbers early in the year may be subsiding. In his last 12 games he has just five in 45 plate appearances, going 19 for 33 with 2 triples, 4 homers, and nine walks. Slash line of .576/.689/1.061 in that stretch. So he's been beating up high school pitching the way you'd expect of someone with his tools. Much more what I'd want to see than the .324/.469/.514 with 11 strikeouts without a homer in his first 49 PA. Perhaps its too small of a sample to give much weight, but Davis was doing exactly what he's doing now during his Sophomore year. 2020: 52 PA, .372 BA, 15.4% BB%, 7.7% K%, .326 ISO (3 HR, 5 2B), 1.178 OPS 2021: 120 PA, .385 BA, 14.2% BB%, 8.3% K%, .292 ISO (7 HR, 7 2B), 1.169 OPS ( I realize Davis has since hit an 8th HR so this line would look a tad better if it were fully up to date) I realize his freshman year isn't as impressive, but he certainly began the 2020 season looking like a guy who had improved significantly, especially in the power department....his approach numbers were fine from the beginning. I've also seen posts that his EVs were in the top few percentile in that sophomore year as well. Right, but most of the 2020 productivity came in non-conference play, and it was such a small sample... again, I don't think people saw it as a breakout as much as it was a guy who got off to a great start. His three homers came against Morehead St, Wake Forest, and Chicago St. He was ranked 231st in the class of 2018 by Perfect Game. I'm not saying any of this is a reason not to take him at #4--I'm all about the guy who has shown skills in-game rather than the raw toolsy type with a ceiling he's less likely to reach. I just think it's taking a minute to register that he's that kind of talent. And again, he's not like a phenom who is going to blow people away with some single physical tool or his presence, he's just a very good defensive catcher with an outstanding approach who hits the hell out of the baseball. I compare it some with Benintendi, who nobody was talking about with the #7 pick before the 2015 season, and even into early May it was more like "he's very impressive, but I dunno..." to "yes I want this guy at #7." So yeah, not at all arguing against him, but I see the reason why people aren't there yet with him, and I also see the reasons why someone would still rate a Lawlar more highly. What I 100% agree with you on is regarding reducing actual players to archetypes. The comparison isn't "a defense-first college catcher" to "a stud SS with a high ceiling" or whatever, Davis and Mayer and Lawlar and everyone else have more dynamic strengths and weaknesses than that. Players aren't types.
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 7, 2021 22:23:57 GMT -5
Sure and well said...maybe the issue is a comp. In all honesty if Mayer reaches his peak what’s that like? Corey Seager. But what the heck is Henry Davis? An athletic catcher, with a great eye, great arm, who hammers the ball but mostly line drives (the batting stance and swing a bit odd but).....Seriously guys who would that be like??? And if there is no comp...then maybe that’s the hesitation (as far as moving him up). Davis strikes me as kinda a unique prospect in a position that’s known to be hard on the player (shortening their hitters peak).
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 7, 2021 22:31:04 GMT -5
Not that it's a fair comp for Davis (any more than Seager is for Mayer), but you've described Buster Posey pretty much exactly. And yeah, maybe he starts to fade at 32 instead of 36, but you can't be worrying about that on draft day, the goal here isn't to get the guy with the highest career WAR or most games played.
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 7, 2021 23:13:04 GMT -5
You know I’ve never thought about Posey...I’ll have to check on that one..much appreciated. And yeah I get the comp thing is a little dubious at best. Honestly..maybe your right... maybe the pedigree isn’t quite there say for example Leiter. But we are splitting hairs between 2 or 3 players we like how are all listed 2-4 or 2-5. I wouldn’t be disappointed in Davis in the slightest at 4. I think his floor and that of the SSs are similar with Davis proving he’s most likely to hit his floor and the SS pair have yet to prove it. But I think the ceiling is higher with Mayer and his all fields approach from the left side I think would play at Fenway slightly better. But I’m a complete novice at this, gonna read up on Posey...appreciate the tip.
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Post by soxinsf on Apr 8, 2021 0:08:49 GMT -5
As a Boston transplant in San Francisco, I have a very favorable view of Buster Posey. He combines athleticism, good skills, hits well. Henry Davis is not Buster Posey but he could possibly achieve success along those lines.
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 8, 2021 2:46:39 GMT -5
From Jim Callis pertaining Davis as a potential number 1 pick, “ At this point, Davis would go in the top half of the first round but No. 1 overall is too rich. He doesn't have a pretty right-handed swing though he does make repeated hard contact, and the biggest issue would be his defense behind the plate. Most scouts grade him as a below-average to fringy receiver and wonder if he might be better (and provide even more offense) in the big leagues as a right fielder, and those concerns will keep him out of the first few selections.”
I’ve heard this from one other analyst in the past..gives me pause..but as you all know I’m pretty reactionary.
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 8, 2021 2:47:11 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 8, 2021 7:00:41 GMT -5
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Post by jbuttah on Apr 8, 2021 11:56:50 GMT -5
As a Boston transplant in San Francisco, I have a very favorable view of Buster Posey. He combines athleticism, good skills, hits well. Henry Davis is not Buster Posey but he could possibly achieve success along those lines. To be fair was Buster Posey wasn't Buster Posey when he got drafted. Or do you mean Davis is not at Posey's level as a pre-draft prospect?
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 8, 2021 12:11:22 GMT -5
Anybody has a study of Catchers in the draft as I understand they are a highly risky demographic even when to HS players in general.
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 8, 2021 12:26:16 GMT -5
Interesting take in the mlb question and answer with Jim callus yesterday saying “ this years draft is shaping up to be a BELOW average draft”. Kinda shocked me to read that
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jdb
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Post by jdb on Apr 8, 2021 12:35:59 GMT -5
Interesting take in the mlb question and answer with Jim callus yesterday saying “ this years draft is shaping up to be a BELOW average draft”. Kinda shocked me to read that Is it the top end bc I thought with last years only going 5 rounds it could be deeper? I have read recently that next years class is much better with several top end guys.
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Post by manfred on Apr 8, 2021 12:44:34 GMT -5
Interesting take in the mlb question and answer with Jim callus yesterday saying “ this years draft is shaping up to be a BELOW average draft”. Kinda shocked me to read that Can’t help that two of the elite arms could be damaged.
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Post by ramireja on Apr 8, 2021 13:04:31 GMT -5
Interesting take in the mlb question and answer with Jim callus yesterday saying “ this years draft is shaping up to be a BELOW average draft”. Kinda shocked me to read that Can’t help that two of the elite arms could be damaged. I mean I don't want to be a Debbie Downer, but thinking of our options at #4, I'd rather be picking from groups like 2020: Spencer Torkelson - Austin Martin - Asa Lacy - Max Meyer - Nick Gonzalez or 2019: Adley Rutschman - Bobby Witt - Andrew Vaughn - JJ Bleday - CJ Abrams - Riley Greene or 2018: Casey Mize - Alec Bohm - Nick Madrigal - Jarred Kelenic - Joey Bart, and so on... Although a college bat will likely go in the top 5, consider that at the moment, there is no lock to do so. Thats pretty rare and introduces a ton of uncertainty toward the top of the draft. It probably resembles the 2017 draft in which the top college bats to be drafted were Brendan McKay (ok, so more of a pitcher at #4), Pavin Smith (#7), and Adam Haseley (#8). That doesn't mean we shouldn't be excited about this draft or that we won't get a good player....but it does kind of strike me as an unfortunate year to have a once-in-a-blank opportunity to pick as high as #4. It definitely has me considering more of a decent ceiling - high floor type of pick (Henry Davis, Gunnar Hoglund) that might provide at least a little savings if agreeing to say a $6.0M-$6.3M type of bonus.
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Post by manfred on Apr 8, 2021 13:12:14 GMT -5
Can’t help that two of the elite arms could be damaged. I mean I don't want to be a Debbie Downer, but thinking of our options at #4, I'd rather be picking from groups like 2020: Spencer Torkelson - Austin Martin - Asa Lacy - Max Meyer - Nick Gonzalez or 2019: Adley Rutschman - Bobby Witt - Andrew Vaughn - JJ Bleday - CJ Abrams - Riley Greene or 2018: Casey Mize - Alec Bohm - Nick Madrigal - Jarred Kelenic - Joey Bart, and so on... Although a college bat will likely go in the top 5, consider that at the moment, there is no lock to do so. Thats pretty rare and introduces a ton of uncertainty toward the top of the draft. It probably resembles the 2017 draft in which the top college bats to be drafted were Brendan McKay (ok, so more of a pitcher at #4), Pavin Smith (#7), and Adam Haseley (#8). That doesn't mean we shouldn't be excited about this draft or that we won't get a good player....but it does kind of strike me as an unfortunate year to have a once-in-a- opportunity to pick as high as #4. It definitely has me considering more of a decent ceiling - high floor type of pick (Henry Davis, Gunnar Hoglund) that might provide at least a little savings if agreeing to say a $6.0M-$6.3M type of bonus. Man, I don’t think that is Debbie Downer, but it is realistic, and you put things in a perspective I hadn’t had. I could get behind a high floor guy that saves a few bucks that could go for a couple stretches later.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Apr 8, 2021 15:27:42 GMT -5
I’m on board for Leiter or Marcelo, one of those two please.
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 8, 2021 16:47:19 GMT -5
Maybe not the best draft but probably the best draft to go get your SS of the future..
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 8, 2021 16:58:51 GMT -5
Also Kumar pitching this evening wish him well. If his velocity returns and he becomes a top 4 guy again then he pushes some SSs down to us or hey maybe we grab him.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 8, 2021 18:29:23 GMT -5
Also Kumar pitching this evening wish him well. If his velocity returns and he becomes a top 4 guy again then he pushes some SSs down to us or hey maybe we grab him. If I'm picking this guy at 4, he has to be throwing 96-98 with no semblance of arm trouble. 89-92 doesn't do it. Hell except for painter Andriese, just about all our guys are in the mid 9Os or above. That's today's (and tomorrow's) baseball. And Kumar is a thrower with iffy command. Bad, light 'em up combo....No thank you. Leiter, yes. Mayer, Lawlar, yes. If those guys are gone, we are more into the land of iffy and hope for.
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Post by evanstonredsox on Apr 8, 2021 18:57:34 GMT -5
Kumar scares me a lot. Every start I watch he relies really heavily on his slider. It's obviously a great pitch but it seems like he is turning into a one pitch pitcher, which is an easy way to produce results in college with a dominant pitch like that. We know that won't fly in pro ball. Today he has almost no command of his fastball and he almost never throws his change up. I'm no scout but I personally see a decent amount of reliever risk here. No college pitcher comes without reliever risk, but considering the Sox won't be in the top 5 again any time soon (hopefully), I'd rather bet on a safer prospect than him.
That being said, I have faith in the scouting department and they have a ton more information available at their disposal than we do so it would be hard to criticize them for whoever they take.
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Post by soxinsf on Apr 8, 2021 19:02:36 GMT -5
As a Boston transplant in San Francisco, I have a very favorable view of Buster Posey. He combines athleticism, good skills, hits well. Henry Davis is not Buster Posey but he could possibly achieve success along those lines. To be fair was Buster Posey wasn't Buster Posey when he got drafted. Or do you mean Davis is not at Posey's level as a pre-draft prospect? Posey is a proven all-star. Davis is an unproven draft possibility. So I am not proclaiming Davis to be Posey today. Rather, what I said is that I think Davis is a real possibility at #4 if two things happen. The first is that Leiter does not drop to 4 (ain’t gonna happen) and Boston FO due diligence finds that David will be a good catcher. Because catchers who can hit, can be trusted behind the plate and have high athleticism are rare and valuable commodities. If the conclusion, as mooted by Callis, that David belongs in RF, comes to psss, then he is not #4 material.
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