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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 19, 2021 21:33:45 GMT -5
And given how heavily the scouted Yorke and the fact that went under the radar, how do we know the heavy hitters haven't already seen the kid? Is it fair to wonder how serious the team's interest is in House if their "heavy hitters" weren't in attendance for his biggest matchup of the season? Yes and no? They have both Brian Moehler and Rob English in Georgia, so they could've had both there along with crosschecker Steven Hargett without any "heavy hitter" registering for Kiley.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 19, 2021 21:40:29 GMT -5
I think House might be in “no mans land” for the Sox. Let’s say they rank him the 8th best prospect or however they would term it so not an option at 4 and obviously not an option with the 2nd round pick. Just speculating but maybe at this point teams start focusing more on “priority” follows than having a broad spectrum. They could have had “lower hitters” as Chris alluded above.
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mobaz
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Posts: 3,014
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Post by mobaz on Apr 20, 2021 9:20:16 GMT -5
30. Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
Madden has two pitches, a fastball up to 97 and a plus slider, from a high slot that makes it hard for him to find a good changeup. He hasn’t missed bats against better competition this year, and he’s been worked harder than any other college starter prospect this year, so scouts see a lot of reliever risk.
I found this interesting from Keith Law. He's really quick to label someone a reliever (haven't checked back on his track record, but he's probably right only because of pitcher volatility as opposed to any Nostradamus tendencies).
I'm feeling better about a Davis or Frelick at 4 if we need/want to. I think I'd put my list as: Leiter Lawler Mayer Frelick Davis Rocker --30--
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 20, 2021 9:29:18 GMT -5
"hasn't missed bats" I admittedly don't have swinging strike data (does that exist for college, post-collegesplits?), but he's got 65 k in 58 innings. Maybe he's good at getting guys looking?
"been worked harder than any other college starter prospect" 890 pitches in 9 starts. Hoglund's page at Ole Miss doesn't have pitches for every game, but for the four it does, he's got two 95s and two 109s. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I feel like Law gets ideas in his head sometimes and it's hard to push him off of them. Like mobaz says, maybe he's right (looks like he might end up right on Mata being a reliever in the end), but sometimes he just gets really stubborn on things.
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Post by vmoss on Apr 20, 2021 9:54:05 GMT -5
30. Ty Madden, RHP, Texas Madden has two pitches, a fastball up to 97 and a plus slider, from a high slot that makes it hard for him to find a good changeup. He hasn’t missed bats against better competition this year, and he’s been worked harder than any other college starter prospect this year, so scouts see a lot of reliever risk. I found this interesting from Keith Law. He's really quick to label someone a reliever (haven't checked back on his track record, but he's probably right only because of pitcher volatility as opposed to any Nostradamus tendencies). I'm feeling better about a Davis or Frelick at 4 if we need/want to. I think I'd put my list as: Leiter Lawler Mayer Frelick Davis Rocker --30-- What do like a Frelick? Thanks.
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mobaz
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Posts: 3,014
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Post by mobaz on Apr 20, 2021 10:55:49 GMT -5
30. Ty Madden, RHP, Texas Madden has two pitches, a fastball up to 97 and a plus slider, from a high slot that makes it hard for him to find a good changeup. He hasn’t missed bats against better competition this year, and he’s been worked harder than any other college starter prospect this year, so scouts see a lot of reliever risk. I found this interesting from Keith Law. He's really quick to label someone a reliever (haven't checked back on his track record, but he's probably right only because of pitcher volatility as opposed to any Nostradamus tendencies). I'm feeling better about a Davis or Frelick at 4 if we need/want to. I think I'd put my list as: Leiter Lawler Mayer Frelick Davis Rocker --30-- What do like a Frelick? Thanks. I don't watch a lot of ball, just go on "feel" of what looks like it worked/didn't in the past. And mostly I have a soft spot for a 5'9" former infielder who shows stellar defense in CF/RF, surprising pop and is a former multi-sport star; we're not going to see Frelick fall to the 5th round.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Apr 20, 2021 11:10:06 GMT -5
"hasn't missed bats" I admittedly don't have swinging strike data (does that exist for college, post-collegesplits?), but he's got 65 k in 58 innings. Maybe he's good at getting guys looking? [...] Wouldn't "hasn’t missed bats against better competition this year" mean that more of his 65 k came against lesser competition rather than against better competition?
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 20, 2021 11:16:11 GMT -5
Law said weird things, at the beginning of the year he said Kumar’s only weapon was his fastball and needed to work on his secondaries while the exact opposite is true. Said Fabian can’t hit the slider when it’s actually the high fastball that gives him trouble. I do feel like he just labels a guy and moves on to rating his favorite board games. Actually saw Henry Davis last weekend and then wrote that buster posey vibes story. He’s also lower on Mayer and his chance to hit for power...speaking of that, here’s Mayer hitting his 7th dinger on 13 games (also his first strikeout).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 20, 2021 11:47:18 GMT -5
"hasn't missed bats" I admittedly don't have swinging strike data (does that exist for college, post-collegesplits?), but he's got 65 k in 58 innings. Maybe he's good at getting guys looking? [...] Wouldn't "hasn’t missed bats against better competition this year" mean that more of his 65 k came against lesser competition rather than against better competition? Missed that part. 5 K in 4 IP vs. Mississippi State 5 K in 7 IP vs. So. Carolina Did get 25 k's in 16 innings against BYU and Houston but I mean, he is facing who he's facing.
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 20, 2021 14:38:27 GMT -5
Joe Doyle with his draft board,
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 20, 2021 14:51:12 GMT -5
I think the consensus I'm starting to see form looks like this:
1) Leiter and Lawlar are almost certainly not going to be there at 4. If either is you pop them and don't look back. 2) The likely group is something like Rocker, Meyer, Davis, Hoglund. If Rocker doesn't look good to close the year Meyer maybe plays his way into a clear top 3, but maybe Detroit cuts an underslot deal with Davis or Hoglund. 3) Maaaaaaybe House works his way into that conversation but that's not an under-slot deal, so I can't see it being him even if both Lawlar and Meyer are gone. 4) Maaaaaaybe Frelick is an underslot option.
That look right?
EDIT: Sorry, forgot one: 5) Will preps News Page writeups on all of the above and they take Watson or something crazy.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 20, 2021 15:01:08 GMT -5
I think the consensus I'm starting to see form looks like this: 1) Leiter and Lawlar are almost certainly not going to be there at 4. If either is you pop them and don't look back. 2) The likely group is something like Rocker, Meyer, Davis, Hoglund. If Rocker doesn't look good to close the year Meyer maybe plays his way into a clear top 3, but maybe Detroit cuts an underslot deal with Davis or Hoglund. 3) Maaaaaaybe House works his way into that conversation but that's not an under-slot deal, so I can't see it being him even if both Lawlar and Meyer are gone. 4) Maaaaaaybe Frelick is an underslot option. That look right? EDIT: Sorry, forgot one: 5) Will preps News Page writeups on all of the above and they take Watson or something crazy. Yeah, that's pretty much where it's at. Rocker/Mayer/Davis seem to be in the range of 4 right now. Could be Hoglund, but I'd put him in the slight underslot bucket, maybe along with Frelick. I think we're going to get updated draft rankings from MLB Pipeline and Perfect Game this week, as well. Still over two months to go!
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Apr 20, 2021 15:32:32 GMT -5
I honestly won't pick Rocker even if he's available in the 2nd round. He threw like 2 billions sliders to this day! I can see a TJS and a rotator cuff injury in the next 3 years. Hard pass.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 20, 2021 15:50:36 GMT -5
I honestly won't pick Rocker even if he's available in the 2nd round. He threw like 2 billions sliders to this day! I can see a TJS and a rotator cuff injury in the next 3 years. Hard pass. That's kind of silly. Every pitcher is a Tommy John risk. We're talking theoretical things that won't happen, but the reason a team wouldn't take Rocker in the second round is that there's no way he's signable there. If you don't want to take him at 4 then that's reasonable, certainly (I'm starting to get kind of scared off by him myself), but again, there's 2 months for him to get straightened out.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
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Post by radiohix on Apr 20, 2021 16:05:50 GMT -5
Every pitcher is a Tommy John risk. Of course but there's pitchers who are riskier than others (usage, mechanics, pitch selections...) As I said before, the 4th pick is way too high for my taste to risk it on a pitcher.
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 20, 2021 16:14:29 GMT -5
The thing about Rocker is that his velocity ALWAYS declined in games. Happened in the tail end of his senior year of HS, happened his freshman year at Vanderbilt. Seriously go watch his no hitter in the playoffs. Great game, fighter, by the third and fourth his velocity is 91 to 93. Rocker may have started a game or two at 95 to 97 but he never, ever sat there, until this year at the beginning. Then after 4 or 5 starts and a great game where he pitched almost a 120 innings his velocity went right back to 89 to 93 and even his nasty slider couldn’t stop him giving up 3 jacks on that last one. I get that he regained his velocity last game but man. He is SOMETIMES a two pitch pitcher, and Sometimes a one pitch pitcher. He is very rarely a two pitch pitcher for an entire game. Dude scares me.
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Post by rismith on Apr 20, 2021 16:19:35 GMT -5
If we go pitcher, I assume they take a full physical and you get to see if there are any issues. Doesn't rule out future issues of course.
I am higher on Rocker than some here. This year he is carrying pressure of being on the #1 team and as the Friday starter. He is sitting:
8-1 with a 1.64 era. In 55 ip he has only given up 3 homeruns walked 15 and struck out 81! He has a WHIP of 0.8. He has the potential for 2 above avg pitches and the frame to eat innings. By all accounts he is a leader and a bulldog on the bump. His velo has been down some but last start I watched it was back sitting 94 most of the night and he went 7 and only gave up 2 hits and no runs.
I like position player over pitcher but Rocker doesnt scare me as much it does others.
Just another perspective I guess.
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 20, 2021 16:36:10 GMT -5
I think the consensus I'm starting to see form looks like this: 1) Leiter and Lawlar are almost certainly not going to be there at 4. If either is you pop them and don't look back. 2) The likely group is something like Rocker, Meyer, Davis, Hoglund. If Rocker doesn't look good to close the year Meyer maybe plays his way into a clear top 3, but maybe Detroit cuts an underslot deal with Davis or Hoglund. 3) Maaaaaaybe House works his way into that conversation but that's not an under-slot deal, so I can't see it being him even if both Lawlar and Meyer are gone. 4) Maaaaaaybe Frelick is an underslot option. That look right? EDIT: Sorry, forgot one: 5) Will preps News Page writeups on all of the above and they take Watson or something crazy. Your forgetting 2 major things that always pop up: 1). Salary and who players start pushing themselves to. 2). For many teams cross checkers and gms or assistant gms or scouting directors haven’t started getting their eyes on players. And those eyes often hold more weight than the average scout Talent wise I agree though
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 20, 2021 16:46:57 GMT -5
Eh, I don't know that either applies much here, if at all.
1) The Red Sox aren't a team that players get pushed past. That's actually what happened with Jay Groome - he'd basically agreed to a number with the Padres and the Sox took him anyway. (EDIT: just realized your point might be players getting pushed past the top 3. Like I said, I think the only guys that're playing into clear top-3 pick status are Leiter and Lawlar, and if either is there, you pop them if you're the Red Sox. I wouldn't let either fall regardless of the price tag unless it's way over slot or something.) 2) I don't believe that's true. I'm not disagreeing that there won't be more movement (definitely could and probably will be) if that's your point, but if you're the Red Sox and have the 4th pick, it's not like you didn't know, for example, to send your crosscheckers to see Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, or to see Lawlar, Meyer, or House by now. Plus, with streaming of college games, I'd be stunned if they didn't have every Leiter, Rocker, Hoglund, Davis, Frelick, Madden, Del Castillo, etc. etc. game that was available recorded and filed for reference, plus I bet they have their area guys taking video as well. Even if, say, Jim Robinson or Fred Petersen hasn't seen Meyer in person, they've almost certainly seen video that JJ Altobelli took and filed.
It's not like they didn't start scouting guys like Lawlar and Meyer until this summer. Heck, they host a showcase at JetBlue Park, at which I'm sure they have multiple guys.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 20, 2021 16:54:17 GMT -5
Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis did a mock on their podcast that they prefaced was only based off of talent/rankings and not on ties between player and team. Kind of just to see where they generally see these players going. With that being said, this is where they ended up:
1. Jack Leiter 2. Jordan Lawlar 3. Marcelo Mayer 4. Kumar Rocker 5. Brady House 6. Henry Davis 7. Jackson Jobe 8. Sal Frelick 9. Ty Madden 10. Gunnar Hoglund 11. Khalil Watson 12. Andrew Painter 13. Colton Cowser 14. Sam Bachman 15. Adrian del Castillo 16. Matt McLain 17. Jordan Wicks 18. Benny Montgomery 19. Harry Ford 20. Joe Mack
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 20, 2021 17:10:26 GMT -5
The thing about Rocker is that his velocity ALWAYS declined in games. Happened in the tail end of his senior year of HS, happened his freshman year at Vanderbilt. Seriously go watch his no hitter in the playoffs. Great game, fighter, by the third and fourth his velocity is 91 to 93. Rocker may have started a game or two at 95 to 97 but he never, ever sat there, until this year at the beginning. Then after 4 or 5 starts and a great game where he pitched almost a 120 innings his velocity went right back to 89 to 93 and even his nasty slider couldn’t stop him giving up 3 jacks on that last one. I get that he regained his velocity last game but man. He is SOMETIMES a two pitch pitcher, and Sometimes a one pitch pitcher. He is very rarely a two pitch pitcher for an entire game. Dude scares me. He has a real reliever potential profile. That’s scary. I’m also not high in taking a catcher though either. But I look at Vazquez and think we can find that star catcher later or we might already have him in Wong or Hernandez.
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 20, 2021 17:16:34 GMT -5
Eh, I don't know that either applies much here, if at all. 1) The Red Sox aren't a team that players get pushed past. That's actually what happened with Jay Groome - he'd basically agreed to a number with the Padres and the Sox took him anyway. (EDIT: just realized your point might be players getting pushed past the top 3. Like I said, I think the only guys that're playing into clear top-3 pick status are Leiter and Lawlar, and if either is there, you pop them if you're the Red Sox. I wouldn't let either fall regardless of the price tag unless it's way over slot or something.) 2) I don't believe that's true. I'm not disagreeing that there won't be more movement (definitely could and probably will be) if that's your point, but if you're the Red Sox and have the 4th pick, it's not like you didn't know, for example, to send your crosscheckers to see Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, or to see Lawlar, Meyer, or House by now. Plus, with streaming of college games, I'd be stunned if they didn't have every Leiter, Rocker, Hoglund, Davis, Frelick, Madden, Del Castillo, etc. etc. game that was available recorded and filed for reference, plus I bet they have their area guys taking video as well. Even if, say, Jim Robinson or Fred Petersen hasn't seen Meyer in person, they've almost certainly seen video that JJ Altobelli took and filed. It's not like they didn't start scouting guys like Lawlar and Meyer until this summer. Heck, they host a showcase at JetBlue Park, at which I'm sure they have multiple guys. Yes I’m talking the top 3 pushing into Sox pick. And watching a player in person is way different than watching on tape. I agree they probably have an idea who to zero in on, but I also bet that focus isn’t becoming to tight yet and won’t for another 1-1.5 months. Scouting directors and assistant gms etc don’t start putting eyes on players for a bit yet ( it was mentioned before in a chat dealing with scouting for draft they didn’t start getting heavily involved till last 3-5 weeks. Those in person watches can heavily sway choices. I’m simply saying it’s still to far out to really know for sure. Shoot fangraphs even talked about how anything right now for mock drafts is a complete crap shoot because of these points. I personally agree with your points though. And didn’t know about the Padres deal with groome.
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 20, 2021 17:17:50 GMT -5
Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis did a mock on their podcast that they prefaced was only based off of talent/rankings and not on ties between player and team. Kind of just to see where they generally see these players going. With that being said, this is where they ended up: 1. Jack Leiter 2. Jordan Lawlar 3. Marcelo Mayer 4. Kumar Rocker 5. Brady House 6. Henry Davis 7. Jackson Jobe 8. Sal Frelick 9. Ty Madden 10. Gunnar Hoglund 11. Khalil Watson 12. Andrew Painter 13. Colton Cowser 14. Sam Bachman 15. Adrian del Castillo 16. Matt McLain 17. Jordan Wicks 18. Benny Montgomery 19. Harry Ford 20. Joe Mack House is moving up.
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cutz
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Posts: 2,326
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Post by cutz on Apr 20, 2021 20:43:28 GMT -5
Joe Doyle with his draft board, I saw #13 Chase Petty pitch today on my computer. I live about a hour away and thought about going. I HOPE to see him pitch this year. Here's today's game:
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 20, 2021 21:34:43 GMT -5
I feel like Law gets ideas in his head sometimes and it's hard to push him off of them. Like mobaz says, maybe he's right (looks like he might end up right on Mata being a reliever in the end), but sometimes he just gets really stubborn on things. Recalled one really bad one today - didn't he legit leave Madrigal off his top 100 when he was otherwise a consensus top 50 prospect? I feel sometimes he almost takes a stand on guys like that and it never turns out.
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