SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2021 MLB Draft
|
Post by tyler3 on Apr 20, 2021 22:22:51 GMT -5
Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis did a mock on their podcast that they prefaced was only based off of talent/rankings and not on ties between player and team. Kind of just to see where they generally see these players going. With that being said, this is where they ended up: 1. Jack Leiter 2. Jordan Lawlar 3. Marcelo Mayer 4. Kumar Rocker 5. Brady House 6. Henry Davis 7. Jackson Jobe 8. Sal Frelick 9. Ty Madden 10. Gunnar Hoglund 11. Khalil Watson 12. Andrew Painter 13. Colton Cowser 14. Sam Bachman 15. Adrian del Castillo 16. Matt McLain 17. Jordan Wicks 18. Benny Montgomery 19. Harry Ford 20. Joe Mack House is moving up. Everyone here knows my anti Kumar bias, so aside from that, I’m absolutely sold on the top 6. However, and before I say this I get the whole never take a HS pitcher/righty with the early 1st round pick, there is a sick part of me that wonders how much underslot Jobe would take. 70 slider, athlete, fastball sitting mid 90s with movement , easy delivery, control, and a nice cambio. It’s the wrong move I know......but after 2 beers the thought always comes up.
|
|
|
Post by Legion of Bloom on Apr 21, 2021 0:00:08 GMT -5
I’m still on the Marcelo bandwagon. To me it’s either him or Davis since Leiter/Lawlar will probably not be there.
|
|
|
Post by tyler3 on Apr 21, 2021 0:13:29 GMT -5
Agreed, up the middle bats with plus hit tool and approach and both showing present power. In reality I think it’s those two.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 21, 2021 8:30:23 GMT -5
Everyone here knows my anti Kumar bias, so aside from that, I’m absolutely sold on the top 6. However, and before I say this I get the whole never take a HS pitcher/righty with the early 1st round pick, there is a sick part of me that wonders how much underslot Jobe would take. 70 slider, athlete, fastball sitting mid 90s with movement , easy delivery, control, and a nice cambio. It’s the wrong move I know......but after 2 beers the thought always comes up. Listening to Callis talk about him got me thinking too. I don't think they go that route but I'd want them to have a reason other than "but HS RHP" not to take him. Like, actually think that whoever you do take is better.
|
|
|
Post by stevedillard on Apr 21, 2021 9:00:01 GMT -5
Last year the number two pick, Kjerstad, signed for $5.2 vs. $7.8 mil slot. With the slot at #4 at $6.68 mil, how much would a kid like Jobe require? $5 to $5.5 mil? That would be his slot around the 7/9 picks. If you save $1.5 million or even $1.8 million and spread that amongst the 3rd, 4th or 5th round picks, that mitigates some of the HS arm risk.
To be clear, I want Mayer if he's there, but if its Rocker, I'd consider savings. Even if you can just save a bit on a Jobe or Hoglund.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 21, 2021 9:43:30 GMT -5
Everyone here knows my anti Kumar bias, so aside from that, I’m absolutely sold on the top 6. However, and before I say this I get the whole never take a HS pitcher/righty with the early 1st round pick, there is a sick part of me that wonders how much underslot Jobe would take. 70 slider, athlete, fastball sitting mid 90s with movement , easy delivery, control, and a nice cambio. It’s the wrong move I know......but after 2 beers the thought always comes up. Listening to Callis talk about him got me thinking too. I don't think they go that route but I'd want them to have a reason other than "but HS RHP" not to take him. Like, actually think that whoever you do take is better. I think "but HS RHP" is a perfectly good reason by itself not to draft him. The track record of HS pitchers at the top of the draft is worse than college pitchers, worse than HS hitters, and worse than college hitters. That suggests there ought to be a sort of mental readjustment downards of whatever their evaluation of a given HS pitcher is.
|
|
|
Post by tyler3 on Apr 21, 2021 10:37:28 GMT -5
God when is the last time HS righty in the top 5 worked out? Maybe when the braves took Ian Anderson underslot at 3? And I guess the verdict is still out on that.
|
|
|
Post by tyler3 on Apr 21, 2021 10:44:24 GMT -5
|
|
fenwayfaithful
Rookie
A prospect is fun to watch, but trading him for a sure thing in the Majors is never a losing deal.
Posts: 114
|
Post by fenwayfaithful on Apr 21, 2021 11:31:19 GMT -5
Last year the number two pick, Kjerstad, signed for $5.2 vs. $7.8 mil slot. With the slot at #4 at $6.68 mil, how much would a kid like Jobe require? $5 to $5.5 mil? That would be his slot around the 7/9 picks. If you save $1.5 million or even $1.8 million and spread that amongst the 3rd, 4th or 5th round picks, that mitigates some of the HS arm risk. To be clear, I want Mayer if he's there, but if its Rocker, I'd consider savings. Even if you can just save a bit on a Jobe or Hoglund. We don’t get top 5 picks. To consider savings in the top 5 is a horrible idea. Let’s just keep praying Mayer is there. Rocker is still a stud. To pass up on him if he’s there and Leiter,Mayer,Lawler are gone would be a huge mistake.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 21, 2021 11:54:40 GMT -5
God when is the last time HS righty in the top 5 worked out? Maybe when the braves took Ian Anderson underslot at 3? And I guess the verdict is still out on that. The only high school righty who has been taken in the top 5 since Anderson has been Hunter Greene. Greene had a 30% K rate in 2018, is still a consensus top 100 guy, and was sitting 100 in spring training.
|
|
|
Post by jdb on Apr 21, 2021 12:07:34 GMT -5
It would be silly not to consider savings or really not consider anything on the table going in. If the draft room views a guy or two on a separate tier and has several behind it ranked the same you have to consider savings.
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 21, 2021 13:33:40 GMT -5
The best and most effective way of doing the "savings" strategy is when you as a team identify a player that perhaps the industry is lower than you on. When the Astros took Carlos Correa I genuinely believe they thought he was the best player they just took advantage that the industry didn't see it that way and could sign him for less just to mention an example.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 21, 2021 13:38:35 GMT -5
The best and most effective way of doing the "savings" strategy is when you as a team identify a player that perhaps the industry is lower than you on. When the Astros took Carlos Correa I genuinely believe they thought he was the best player they just took advantage that the industry didn't see it that way and could sign him for less just to mention an example. This. To be clear, I don't think anyone is saying to pass up a guy they think is a full grade better. It's like Yorke versus Pete Crow-Armstrong too. The Red Sox genuinely sound like they liked Yorke better, or at least thought it was close enough such that a $659k difference in signing bonus made Yorke the better pick there. I don't think anyone is suggesting to take someone cheaper because it's not worth giving, say, Meyer a large bonus. And by the way, I need to call myself out for thinking that Khalil Watson was at Wake Forest University, not Wake Forest HS.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Apr 21, 2021 14:27:47 GMT -5
Anyone want to take a quantitative stab at whether, in general, you'd rather have the #4 and #40 prospects or the #7 and #20 prospects in a draft?
|
|
|
Post by orion09 on Apr 21, 2021 15:25:50 GMT -5
Anyone want to take a quantitative stab at whether, in general, you'd rather have the #4 and #40 prospects or the #7 and #20 prospects in a draft? According to this article, 4+40 = 4.7 WAR and 7+20 = .... 4.7 WAR. So pretty equivalent. blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-on-how-to-value-draft-picks/
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Apr 21, 2021 15:35:43 GMT -5
That suggests they should be open to taking an underslot guy they like less by a meaningful amount at #4. All depends on what presents the most value.
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 21, 2021 20:50:49 GMT -5
New draft rankings for MLB Pipeline are out (expanded out to 150). The top ten: 1. Jack Leiter, RHP (Vanderbilt) 2. Jordan Lawlar, SS (Jesuit Prep, Tex.) 3. Kumar Rocker, RHP (Vanderbilt) 4. Marcelo Mayer, SS (Eastlake, Calif.) 5. Brady House, SS (Winder-Barrow, Ga.) 6. Jackson Jobe, RHP (Heritage Hall, Ok.) 7. Henry Davis, C (Louisville) 8. Sal Frelick, OF (Boston College) 9. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP (Mississippi) 10. Ty Madden, RHP (Texas) www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/
|
|
|
Post by vmoss on Apr 21, 2021 21:03:33 GMT -5
From mlb summary:One of the best and most advanced high school pitching prospects in recent years,
I am intrigued by Jobe, what do you guys think? Thanks.
|
|
|
Post by tyler3 on Apr 21, 2021 21:12:57 GMT -5
I like Jobe for a couple reasons. He’s not throwing 102 like pint and green, but 90 to 95 with great movement and control. You could almost just count down to the TJS with Pint and Green, and they never had the control of Jobe. Second, premiere arsenal. Slider that just stuns the scout and analyst world and what has really moved him up is that word on the street is the change is now almost as good. So what you have is a super athletic guy, smooth delivery, with a CURRENT, 4 pitch arsenal (curves not bad either). So really.....it’s just the insane risk that goes with HS pitcher....which....is pretty insane.
|
|
|
Post by tyler3 on Apr 21, 2021 21:20:11 GMT -5
From kiley at espn,
Jobe was right behind Painter off of the summer, but was the smaller (6-foot-1 or so), more athletic (a real prospect as a position player) type with insane spin rates (over 3,000 RPM on his breaking ball). He has come out even stronger this spring, with some scouts hanging 65 or 70 grades on all three pitches, with only the rightful stigma/risk profile of prep righty as a negative to consider.
|
|
|
Post by dyoungteach on Apr 21, 2021 21:22:33 GMT -5
I like Jobe for a couple reasons. He’s not throwing 102 like pint and green, but 90 to 95 with great movement and control. You could almost just count down to the TJS with Pint and Green, and they never had the control of Jobe. Second, premiere arsenal. Slider that just stuns the scout and analyst world and what has really moved him up is that word on the street is the change is now almost as good. So what you have is a super athletic guy, smooth delivery, with a CURRENT, 4 pitch arsenal (curves not bad either). So really.....it’s just the insane risk that goes with HS pitcher....which....is pretty insane. Hard to take that high school pitcher. But gosh. Josh Beckett says hi. And gerrit Cole says hi. ( before he went to college he was high school right handed who rated high). So there have been success stories. Trouble is there have been so many failures too.
|
|
|
Post by tyler3 on Apr 21, 2021 22:03:28 GMT -5
Yeah but a lot of those busts were fire ballers, with one or no secondary. This guy is 95 with a plus change, a plus plus slider, and a decent curve.
|
|
|
Post by tyler3 on Apr 22, 2021 9:02:47 GMT -5
Like I distinctly remember how everyone was so amazed at how easy and smooth it was for Hunter Green to reach 102. But he had no secondaries at all.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 22, 2021 9:18:27 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 22, 2021 9:29:28 GMT -5
|
|
|