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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 22, 2021 10:45:11 GMT -5
Yeah, I think it's easy to throw Greene into the Pint/Kolek grouping, but I think it's premature.
I do think the point about why certain players don't work out is good though. I don't think the reason Pint and Kolek didn't work out was because they were high school right-handers. There's risk to that profile in itself, but I think there is more to the specific types of pitchers each one is. I forget which (Kolek I think?) but one got signed and went from working around 99-100 to more mid-90s, which made him way more ordinary and was a huge issue when that's all he had.
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badfishnbc
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Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
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Post by badfishnbc on Apr 22, 2021 10:45:32 GMT -5
THIS. We can't possibly observe from our perches what's going on with Kumar, but should trust the Sox brass to know and ask the right questions. We all wanted him at 1-1 last August. I'm still comfortable with him at 1-4 if available.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 22, 2021 11:08:39 GMT -5
Yeah, I think it's easy to throw Greene into the Pint/Kolek grouping, but I think it's premature. I do think the point about why certain players don't work out is good though. I don't think the reason Pint and Kolek didn't work out was because they were high school right-handers. There's risk to that profile in itself, but I think there is more to the specific types of pitchers each one is. I forget which (Kolek I think?) but one got signed and went from working around 99-100 to more mid-90s, which made him way more ordinary and was a huge issue when that's all he had. Here is my speculative and totally uninformed, but also maybe sort of "well, duh," theory about the underperformance of drafted high school pitchers:
Virtually every player that is drafted is not yet ready for the major leagues. So they have to be judged based on a hypothetical future trajectory. And there are a number of obstacles between where they are at the time of the draft and making it as a major leaguer. (This is why most draftees never make it in the majors, of course.) A high school pitcher can look like they're on a sure-fire, no-doubt trajectory to major league excellence... but there are simply more obstacles between where they are and where they project to end up than there are for other types of players. Can they stay healthy? Can they maintain fastball velocity? Can they maintain consistent command/control? Emotional maturity? Etc. etc.
So if Kolek had this drop in velocity, for instance, well, maybe that's because of something about the specific type of pitcher he is. But maybe it's just that "maintaining velocity at ages 18-20" or whatever is one of the extra challenges a high school pitcher has to overcome. That's why a college pitcher would, all things being equal, be a safer bet - they've already overcome that obstacle at least, among others.
ADD: I guess "teams systematically underestimate future risk with high school pitchers" would have been the more succinct way to say this.
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Post by evanstonredsox on Apr 22, 2021 11:13:52 GMT -5
Worth noting that Leiter, Lawlar, Mayer, and Rocker all received 60 overall grades from MLBpipeline, which would slot them into the top 22 of their top 100.
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Post by manfred on Apr 22, 2021 11:24:18 GMT -5
Yeah, I think it's easy to throw Greene into the Pint/Kolek grouping, but I think it's premature. I do think the point about why certain players don't work out is good though. I don't think the reason Pint and Kolek didn't work out was because they were high school right-handers. There's risk to that profile in itself, but I think there is more to the specific types of pitchers each one is. I forget which (Kolek I think?) but one got signed and went from working around 99-100 to more mid-90s, which made him way more ordinary and was a huge issue when that's all he had. Here is my speculative and totally uninformed, but also maybe sort of "well, duh," theory about the underperformance of drafted high school pitchers:
Virtually every player that is drafted is not yet ready for the major leagues. So they have to be judged based on a hypothetical future trajectory. And there are a number of obstacles between where they are at the time of the draft and making it as a major leaguer. (This is why most draftees never make it in the najors, of course.) A high school pitcher can look like they're on a sure-fire, no-doubt trajectory to major league excellence... but there are simply more obstacles between where there are and where they project to end up than there are for other types of players. Can they stay healthy? Can they maintain fastball velocity? Can they maintain consistent command/control? Emotional maturity? Etc. etc.
So if Kolek had this drop in velocity, for instance, well, maybe that's because of something about the specific type of pitcher he is. But maybe it's just that "maintaining velocity at ages 18-20" or whatever is one of the extra challenges a high school pitcher has to overcome. That's why a college pitcher would, all things being equal, be a safer bet - they've already overcome that obstacle at least, among others.
To pick up on this with as much a question as a statement: there are so many things that can go wrong between 18 and MLB. But it feels like historically (and it is better now, but still touchy) college coaches have not treated pitchers with nearly the care pro organizations do. So could there be some benefit to getting a guy before those seasons, immediately having him on your shoulder program and pitch counts, etc? The risk of guessing how a guy will develop is still there, obviously, but... I guess maybe my question overall is does college help or hurt pitching prospects (given that we judge mostly based on the guys who “survive”).
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Post by vmoss on Apr 22, 2021 12:45:15 GMT -5
Worth noting that Leiter, Lawlar, Mayer, and Rocker all received 60 overall grades from MLBpipeline, which would slot them into the top 22 of their top 100. If this higher or about average for the top 4 or so prospects before a draft? Thanks.
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Post by evanstonredsox on Apr 22, 2021 13:17:12 GMT -5
Worth noting that Leiter, Lawlar, Mayer, and Rocker all received 60 overall grades from MLBpipeline, which would slot them into the top 22 of their top 100. If this higher or about average for the top 4 or so prospects before a draft? Thanks. We are still three months out from the draft, so this is bound to change. Looking back at the last few years tho: 2020: Torkelson was a 65 grade and the only player 60+, slotted into top 100 at No. 7. Austin Martin was No. 2 prospect, 55 grade, entered at No. 20 on the top 100. 2019: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrams were all 60 grade. Finished the season at 6, 8, 21, 45 on the top 100. 2018: Casey Mize was the only 60 grade. Singer, Madrigal and Liberatore rounded out the top 4 at 55. 2017: Hunter Greene, Brendan McKay, Kyle Wright all 60. Hard to look too much into this, but considering Callis and Mayo have been at MLB for years and only once in the last 5 drafts have the top 4 all been 60 grades, they must like this class (more than Keith Law at least).
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Post by incandenza on Apr 22, 2021 13:17:15 GMT -5
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Apr 22, 2021 13:20:41 GMT -5
Worth noting that Leiter, Lawlar, Mayer, and Rocker all received 60 overall grades from MLBpipeline, which would slot them into the top 22 of their top 100. If this higher or about average for the top 4 or so prospects before a draft? Thanks. Just last year: 1st pick Torkelson = #3 on mlbpipeline’s current prospect list, grade of 65 2 Kerstad = #60, grade of 55 3 Meyer = #24, grade of 55 4 Lacy = #26, grade of 55 5 Martin = #19, grade of 55 6 Hancock = #27, grade of 55
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 22, 2021 13:26:27 GMT -5
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Apr 22, 2021 13:36:05 GMT -5
More Keith Law, on Henry Davis
Larry 1:05 Do you think Henry Davis’ receiving will improve? He has a problem with the catching part of catching. Keith Law 1:05 That's wrong. He receives well, throws plus, could use some help with blocking. I'm not sure where you got that information but it's bad.
Frank 1:34 You seem to be a big Henry Davis fan from your article. If you were picking 1-1 would you take him over any of the pitchers? Keith Law 1:36 I am going to see Leiter (if possible) in the next few weeks, but right now, I think I would. Elite bat at catcher. Position player > pitcher. And the pitchers this year, while very good up top, are not Strasburg/Cole/Price.
David 1:59 What would you put the odds at that the Pirates draft someone other than Lieter? Your piece of Henry Davis opened my eyes. Keith Law 2:04 I think they should explore Davis as an option, yes, absolutely, both because he might be the #1 prospect in the class, and because maybe they can get the best deal between him and Leiter (I don't think they're on a HS kid there) and do more at their next pick.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 22, 2021 13:53:56 GMT -5
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 22, 2021 13:54:30 GMT -5
I want Mayer at the moment, but Davis trending up like this only helps us. I’d rather pick him than Rocker at this point.
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Post by orion09 on Apr 22, 2021 14:36:31 GMT -5
I want Mayer at the moment, but Davis trending up like this only helps us. I’d rather pick him than Rocker at this point. Mayer, to me, feels like the kind of guy the Red Sox like. Strong hit tool plus defense.
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 22, 2021 16:30:27 GMT -5
My apologies. One elite pitch and a 55 slider. Your right not a bust yet. And he’s in the 60s in mlb pipeline, outside the top 100 in baseball America, and 100th in fangraphs. So consensus..ok. Here’s what baseball America said about his breaking stuff “ He was throwing both a slider and a curveball as a senior, with his slider figuring to be a bigger part of his future. Thrown in the low 80s, the pitch flashes slurvy tilt and earns above-average projections from scouts. He throws all four of his pitches for strikes. Greene has focused on pitching off his fastball and doesn't have as many reps with his offspeed stuff as a result.” Slurvy tilt with above average projections but nobody saw it that much. He had one elite pitch and was projected to have one elite pitch.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 22, 2021 16:39:55 GMT -5
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Post by unitspin on Apr 22, 2021 18:04:35 GMT -5
Wow Fabian fell to the second round. He would deff be a solid ticket in the second rd if the price is right. His power is legit.
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Post by iakovos11 on Apr 22, 2021 18:54:32 GMT -5
Wow Fabian fell to the second round. He would deff be a solid ticket in the second rd if the price is right. His power is legit. So is his swing and miss. Hence the tumble ....
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 23, 2021 10:17:10 GMT -5
Another big test for Rocker tonight against #4 Miss State. I believe the game is on the SEC Network at 8pm.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 23, 2021 10:33:23 GMT -5
Wow Fabian fell to the second round. He would deff be a solid ticket in the second rd if the price is right. His power is legit. So is his swing and miss. Hence the tumble .... For sure, but that risk/ reward is awfully enticing for a 2nd round pick.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 23, 2021 10:49:52 GMT -5
So is his swing and miss. Hence the tumble .... For sure, but that risk/ reward is awfully enticing for a 2nd round pick. That's fair - but the Jeren Kendall comps would scare me off (Fabian has a higher K rate than Kendall did in college). If you go back and look at which players were the top 10 in strikeouts in the NCAA the past few years....it's not a great group. Fabian currently has the second most strikeouts in NCAA.
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 23, 2021 11:54:35 GMT -5
Jud reminds me of a centerfield version of Chavis. Hammers the ball until it’s a high fastball.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 23, 2021 12:01:13 GMT -5
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Post by unitspin on Apr 23, 2021 13:04:35 GMT -5
We haven't had much lucky in the last 10 years with 2nd rd picks as we have in the past, targeting a player that drops that far might be a nice risk/reward for a guy like Fabian that at one point was looked at as a potential top ten pick.
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Post by evanstonredsox on Apr 23, 2021 21:03:53 GMT -5
Kumar Rocker dealing once again tonight. 8 innings 2 hits 1 run 8 ks. 93-96 and spotting his fastball. It’s going to be very hard to pass on him at 4 if he is there.
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