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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 23, 2021 21:07:43 GMT -5
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,121
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Post by jimoh on Apr 23, 2021 21:47:05 GMT -5
If this higher or about average for the top 4 or so prospects before a draft? Thanks. Just last year: 1st pick Torkelson = #3 on mlbpipeline’s current prospect list, grade of 65 2 Kerstad = #60, grade of 55 3 Meyer = #24, grade of 55 4 Lacy = #26, grade of 55 5 Martin = #19, grade of 55 6 Hancock = #27, grade of 55 Callis today: 'If this year's draft prospects and last year's draft prospects were all in the draft together right now, who would be the top 5 picks and in what order? --@puk32ellers ...Here's how I'd rank the top 15 prospects from the last two Drafts, based on what we know about the guys now and not just at the time they were chosen: 1. Spencer Torkelson, 1B/3B, Arizona State (No. 1, Tigers, 2020) 2. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt (2021) 3. Jordan Lawlar, SS, HS/Texas (2021) 4. Marcelo Mayer, SS, HS/California (2021) 5. Austin Martin, SS/OF, Vanderbilt (No. 5, Blue Jays, 2020) 6. Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota (No. 3, Marlins, 2020) 7. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt (2021) 8. Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M (No. 4, Royals, 2020) 9. Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia (No. 6, Mariners, 2020) 10. Brady House, SS, HS/Georgia (2021)" [...] www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-inbox-2021-draft-class-vs-2020-class?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
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Post by unitspin on Apr 24, 2021 7:44:28 GMT -5
Kumar Rocker dealing once again tonight. 8 innings 2 hits 1 run 8 ks. 93-96 and spotting his fastball. It’s going to be very hard to pass on him at 4 if he is there. Hopefully teams are crazy enough to pass on him. To get him at 4th would be a steal.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 24, 2021 8:03:26 GMT -5
Kumar Rocker dealing once again tonight. 8 innings 2 hits 1 run 8 ks. 93-96 and spotting his fastball. It’s going to be very hard to pass on him at 4 if he is there. Hopefully teams are crazy enough to pass on him. To get him at 4th would be a steal. I remember when big framed Groome was can't miss and a possible 1-1...(think we got him at 6 as a "steal"). He's currently our 12th rated prospect. I'll take a top position player thank you....every day player, less chance of debilitating or career altering injury.
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Post by vmoss on Apr 24, 2021 9:01:44 GMT -5
Groome was an overslot #12 overall pick in 2016.
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Post by rockymtnsox on Apr 24, 2021 9:17:57 GMT -5
Hopefully teams are crazy enough to pass on him. To get him at 4th would be a steal. I remember when big framed Groome was can't miss and a possible 1-1...(think we got him at 6 as a "steal"). He's currently our 12th rated prospect. I'll take a top position player thank you....every day player, less chance of debilitating or career altering injury. You make the Groome pick 100 times out of 100. It didn’t necessarily work out, but the reasoning behind it is sound.
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Post by jdb on Apr 24, 2021 9:26:36 GMT -5
Position player vs pitcher aside, Rocker gaining his velo is huge for teams in the top 5. If he’s going good I’d be happy with him, Leiter, HS SS’s or Davis.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 24, 2021 9:38:54 GMT -5
I remember when big framed Groome was can't miss and a possible 1-1...(think we got him at 6 as a "steal"). He's currently our 12th rated prospect. I'll take a top position player thank you....every day player, less chance of debilitating or career altering injury. You make the Groome pick 100 times out of 100. It didn’t necessarily work out, but the reasoning behind it is sound. Counterpoint: he was a high school pitcher, and high school pitchers have been systematically overrated by teams in the draft.
Like sarasoxer I'd prefer a position player (Lawlar, Mayer, or Davis) but I wouldn't complain about Leiter or Rocker at #4; college pitchers are still better bets than HS pitchers.
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Post by manfred on Apr 24, 2021 9:41:20 GMT -5
You make the Groome pick 100 times out of 100. It didn’t necessarily work out, but the reasoning behind it is sound. Counterpoint: he was a high school pitcher, and high school pitchers have been systematically overrated by teams in the draft.
Like sarasoxer I'd prefer a position player (Lawlar, Mayer, or Davis) but I wouldn't complain about Leiter or Rocker at #4; college pitchers are still better bets than HS pitchers.
Groome is 22 and has been hurt. Is it a bit early to write his obituary?
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Post by incandenza on Apr 24, 2021 9:53:39 GMT -5
Counterpoint: he was a high school pitcher, and high school pitchers have been systematically overrated by teams in the draft.
Like sarasoxer I'd prefer a position player (Lawlar, Mayer, or Davis) but I wouldn't complain about Leiter or Rocker at #4; college pitchers are still better bets than HS pitchers.
Groome is 22 and has been hurt. Is it a bit early to write his obituary? For sure! But as of now, he's the #12 prospect in a not very strong system. For context, the next three position players taken after Groome in that draft were Josh Lowe (a 50 FV prospect and #5 in the Rays' loaded system), Will Benson (40 FV; meh), and Alex Kirilloff (60 FV; fangraphs #17 overall prospect).
ADD: But I don't want to drift too far from the original context here, which was just that position players are better bets than pitchers, especially high school pitchers. I'm not going to die on the hill that Groome specifically was a bad pick; it looks like the makeup concerns that caused him to fall in that draft were probably misplaced (?) so maybe he was a reasonable bet at #12.
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 24, 2021 10:27:33 GMT -5
At this point every team is aware of the actuarial tables and takes the implications seriously. You can't endlessly say "value HS pitchers less than the consensus" since the consensus is a dynamic thing.
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 24, 2021 10:35:56 GMT -5
Groome is 22 and has been hurt. Is it a bit early to write his obituary? For sure! But as of now, he's the #12 prospect in a not very strong system. For context, the next three position players taken after Groome in that draft were Josh Lowe (a 50 FV prospect and #5 in the Rays' loaded system), Will Benson (40 FV; meh), and Alex Kirilloff (60 FV; fangraphs #17 overall prospect).
ADD: But I don't want to drift too far from the original context here, which was just that position players are better bets than pitchers, especially high school pitchers. I'm not going to die on the hill that Groome specifically was a bad pick; it looks like the makeup concerns that caused him to fall in that draft were probably misplaced (?) so maybe he was a reasonable bet at #12.
I’m not sure the makeup concerns were misplaced. His father getting picked up on drugs and weapons charges probably didn’t help his support structure and his fluctuations on coming into camp in great shape and then not great shape is something. Not saying he can’t overcome these things but the whispers predraft seemed to have had something to them.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 24, 2021 10:42:43 GMT -5
At this point every team is aware of the actuarial tables and takes the implications seriously. You can't endlessly say "value HS pitchers less than the consensus" since the consensus is a dynamic thing. True, and I mentioned something about this a couple pages ago or so - it may well be that teams have already corrected this inefficiency. In which case: consider me in agreement with the consensus view of how risky HS pitchers are.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 24, 2021 10:46:34 GMT -5
For sure! But as of now, he's the #12 prospect in a not very strong system. For context, the next three position players taken after Groome in that draft were Josh Lowe (a 50 FV prospect and #5 in the Rays' loaded system), Will Benson (40 FV; meh), and Alex Kirilloff (60 FV; fangraphs #17 overall prospect).
ADD: But I don't want to drift too far from the original context here, which was just that position players are better bets than pitchers, especially high school pitchers. I'm not going to die on the hill that Groome specifically was a bad pick; it looks like the makeup concerns that caused him to fall in that draft were probably misplaced (?) so maybe he was a reasonable bet at #12.
I’m not sure the makeup concerns were misplaced. His father getting picked up on drugs and weapons charges probably didn’t help his support structure and his fluctuations on coming into camp in great shape and then not great shape is something. Not saying he can’t overcome these things but the whispers predraft seemed to have had something to them. I'm actually curious about this: has it been an issue in his professional career so far? Maybe not being in great shape indicates some deep personal weakness, but also... maybe not? I honestly don't know, and don't remember hearing anything about it.
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 24, 2021 10:47:54 GMT -5
Now as for today....that’s now 2 good starts in a row for Rocker with his velocity back. Leiter had his worse game last week. It will be interesting to see how Leiter does tonight. Any signs of struggle from Leiter may reignite that whole Rocker vs Leiter debate. In any case as others have mentioned, Rocker shoving is good for us either way.
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 24, 2021 11:28:34 GMT -5
I’m not sure the makeup concerns were misplaced. His father getting picked up on drugs and weapons charges probably didn’t help his support structure and his fluctuations on coming into camp in great shape and then not great shape is something. Not saying he can’t overcome these things but the whispers predraft seemed to have had something to them. I'm actually curious about this: has it been an issue in his professional career so far? Maybe not being in great shape indicates some deep personal weakness, but also... maybe not? I honestly don't know, and don't remember hearing anything about it. I don’t know if it’s been an issue for him honestly. I do know that when drafting a HS player teams do take the parents into consideration (I have no idea how much). But like Jack Leiter being able to talk to his dad is probably considered a plus. But since turning pro from high school is more than just talent I know teams at least consider the character and work ethic of the parents. As for the in shape thing, I mean Raffy last year showed up a little out of shape and I love the guy. I do know that Groome’s timeline due to injury is now much more perilous. So when he showed up last year he was reported (by Ian And Chris I believe), to be in incredible shape and his fastball showed as a result. A few months later he returned noticeably heavier and did not have the same stuff. Don’t think this makes him a morally bad person. Just puts his professional future (especially with the Red Sox who can’t protect him forever) on fuzzier ground.
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Post by unitspin on Apr 24, 2021 11:32:34 GMT -5
Hopefully teams are crazy enough to pass on him. To get him at 4th would be a steal. I remember when big framed Groome was can't miss and a possible 1-1...(think we got him at 6 as a "steal"). He's currently our 12th rated prospect. I'll take a top position player thank you....every day player, less chance of debilitating or career altering injury. He was a HS arm that played against HS bats. Rocker and Leiter are dealing to actually hitters and we didn't draft him at 6. Comparing Rocker to groome is like comparing bryce harper to benny bcs they both went in the first rd.
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 24, 2021 14:11:00 GMT -5
Kumar Rocker dealing once again tonight. 8 innings 2 hits 1 run 8 ks. 93-96 and spotting his fastball. It’s going to be very hard to pass on him at 4 if he is there. Hopefully teams are crazy enough to pass on him. To get him at 4th would be a steal. Couldn’t disagree more. A 2 pitch pitcher with decking velocity isn’t just a potential reliever bust but waste of top 4 pick. Hopefully we are “crazy enough” to pass on him in first round. I’ll trade for that pitcher or sign him as free agent years later..
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Post by larrycook on Apr 24, 2021 14:12:05 GMT -5
Has anybody seen the kid from the university of the Texas pitch?
Been hearing some good things about him, but has yet to put eyes on him.
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 24, 2021 14:18:42 GMT -5
Groome is 22 and has been hurt. Is it a bit early to write his obituary? For sure! But as of now, he's the #12 prospect in a not very strong system. For context, the next three position players taken after Groome in that draft were Josh Lowe (a 50 FV prospect and #5 in the Rays' loaded system), Will Benson (40 FV; meh), and Alex Kirilloff (60 FV; fangraphs #17 overall prospect).
ADD: But I don't want to drift too far from the original context here, which was just that position players are better bets than pitchers, especially high school pitchers. I'm not going to die on the hill that Groome specifically was a bad pick; it looks like the makeup concerns that caused him to fall in that draft were probably misplaced (?) so maybe he was a reasonable bet at #12.
Kiriloff would have been a huge upgrade over groome. The other 2. Eh. Now where the high upside high school pitcher can often score big is in 2nd round with an over slot deal commensurate with a early to mid first round bonus. THAT is a slot we could target a pretty dang good upside high school arm and gain a first round pick in return. I’m not sure on names this year but from past drafts I can think of Matt Allen and lance mccullers as a couple examples
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 24, 2021 14:21:01 GMT -5
I remember when big framed Groome was can't miss and a possible 1-1...(think we got him at 6 as a "steal"). He's currently our 12th rated prospect. I'll take a top position player thank you....every day player, less chance of debilitating or career altering injury. He was a HS arm that played against HS bats. Rocker and Leiter are dealing to actually hitters and we didn't draft him at 6. Comparing Rocker to groome is like comparing bryce harper to benny bcs they both went in the first rd. Well, I think that you are operating a bit out of a stretch. Yes, Groome was a high school pitcher and yes we drafted him 12th. But, like Rocker he was viewed as a possible 1-1. Anyone considered that high is more the Bryce than the Benny. I recall a longtime scout opining that Groome had the best combo of FB (98) and hammer curve of any HS pitcher he had seen in the prior 10 years. Rocker may slide because of FB velo variance but Groome apparently slid, not on assessment of ability, but on character concerns, real or imagined. Sox Nation reveled in sky high exultation when we were deemed lucky enough to land him. Unfortunately, thru no fault of his own, injuries and a major surgery have detoured him. Now certainly over time the baseball mindset has drifted away from drafting high school players at the top due to assessment and projection difficulties particularly with pitchers. The Groome saga may partly have influenced that. But back then Groome was viewed as a cherry.
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Post by soxinsf on Apr 24, 2021 15:31:24 GMT -5
There was a pretty good understanding that the Groome selection was a high risk, high reward role the dice. Reminds of the Song selection. Both could work out and we wind up with significant additions to the rotation. Both could bust, and we will still be competitive.
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 24, 2021 15:57:35 GMT -5
If you guys are looking for the HS pitcher at 40....I think Thatcher Hurd and Gage Jump are to guys to watch. One will fall because he’s a righty and the other because he might be 5’ 11”. Both are very interesting picks.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 24, 2021 16:24:29 GMT -5
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 24, 2021 16:40:58 GMT -5
Counterpoint: he was a high school pitcher, and high school pitchers have been systematically overrated by teams in the draft. Like sarasoxer I'd prefer a position player (Lawlar, Mayer, or Davis) but I wouldn't complain about Leiter or Rocker at #4; college pitchers are still better bets than HS pitchers.
Groome is 22 and has been hurt. Is it a bit early to write his obituary? It is...but look how SP now views him...'backend starter with possible #3 as a ceiling'. Since surgery the velocity on the FB and curve are represented as being down.
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