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Post by tyler3 on May 5, 2021 12:46:03 GMT -5
Another thought hit me. I know that if you don’t sign your pick you lose the slot money for that draft and drop a spot in the next draft. What if a scenario plays out where the Red Sox have pick 4 and Leiter is available. Leiter wants more than the slot value of pick number 4 or I go back to Vanderbilt.... would you rather have the 4th pick in this draft or 5th pick in next years draft? I’m leaning 4 in this one just wondered about that.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 5, 2021 15:24:17 GMT -5
What does Casey Mize have to do with whether the Tigers would draft Leiter or Rocker? A starting rotation has 5 guys.
And I can't imagine a scenario in which they'd go into the draft not intending to sign the no. 4 pick that would make sense. We're currently seeing the effect of a prospect "bubble" that was caused by the issues with IFAs in the '15 and '16 classes and suboptimal draft outcomes from the '16 and '17 classes (and nothing other than the one guy from '15). You need a steady stream of guys coming up.
The only time that not signing a guy makes sense is if the medicals reveal a major issue you didn't know about or there's an issue regarding money that comes up after (e.g., Hunter Morris changing his number on them and forcing their hand).
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Post by dyoungteach on May 5, 2021 15:29:49 GMT -5
The top is getting kinda interesting and the latest mlb podcast as Red Sox stats noted says that there is a chance Leiter and Rocker fall out of the top 4. I don’t know what the next Mock will be but the podcast talked about, for now, the Pirates might run for Lawlar with the first pick. If that happens then you have the Rangers who are (I believe I heard) pretty conservative. I think that would be the ideal we’re gonna cut a deal with Davis spot. After that you have Detroit....what do you do if your Detroit? Casey Mize ain’t doing that great right now but it’s early for him. I just see a scenario where the first 3 are Lawlar, Davis, Mayer....at which point we gave to kinda either go with Leiter or Rocker at slot or above (and Leiter can always go back to school, as a draft eligible sophomore) or do something like House underslot (Jobe if you want go crazy but anyways). So I know this from talking to a tigers scout. Tigers from him are in on house. They also are looking at pitchers but, and this came from his lips, it’s hard for us to target pitchers with how much pitching depth we have. He also acknowledged he is an area scout with very little pull. So what he said pretty much means squat. I would not be surprised if Texas went pitching as they need pitching both In system and on team. They also tend to like college players. Detroit I’m guessing will go hitter. I could agree totally that Leiter, rocker, house/Mayer is what we could be looking at.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 5, 2021 15:31:54 GMT -5
What does Casey Mize have to do with whether the Tigers would draft Leiter or Rocker? A starting rotation has 5 guys. And I can't imagine a scenario in which they'd go into the draft not intending to sign the no. 4 pick that would make sense. We're currently seeing the effect of a prospect "bubble" that was caused by the issues with IFAs in the '15 and '16 classes and suboptimal draft outcomes from the '16 and '17 classes (and nothing other than the one guy from '15). You need a steady stream of guys coming up. The only time that not signing a guy makes sense is if the medicals reveal a major issue you didn't know about or there's an issue regarding money that comes up after (e.g., Hunter Morris changing his number on them and forcing their hand). Tigers system is known to have much more pitchers than they do hitters. Their major league team is showing that struggle. Add in what I heard from scout.... I’ll be shocked if tigers go pitcher. Very surprised
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Post by tyler3 on May 5, 2021 15:36:00 GMT -5
Just a couple articles musing about whether Detroit made a mistake that year. It’s premature to write off Mize. You take BPA I get it. And to be clear Mize was pretty close to the consensus number 1 that year. Teams don’t listen to local sportswriters second guessing previous drafts. I just wonder if Detroit having seen all the complications of drafting a can’t miss college pitcher up close might lean towards a bat if they thought both options had comparable future value. Just A thought Chris stop lawyering me on hump day:)
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on May 5, 2021 15:45:08 GMT -5
What does Casey Mize have to do with whether the Tigers would draft Leiter or Rocker? A starting rotation has 5 guys. And I can't imagine a scenario in which they'd go into the draft not intending to sign the no. 4 pick that would make sense. We're currently seeing the effect of a prospect "bubble" that was caused by the issues with IFAs in the '15 and '16 classes and suboptimal draft outcomes from the '16 and '17 classes (and nothing other than the one guy from '15). You need a steady stream of guys coming up. The only time that not signing a guy makes sense is if the medicals reveal a major issue you didn't know about or there's an issue regarding money that comes up after (e.g., Hunter Morris changing his number on them and forcing their hand). Tigers system is known to have much more pitchers than they do hitters. Their major league team is showing that struggle. Add in what I heard from scout.... I’ll be shocked if tigers go pitcher. Very surprised MLB.com has 7 of Tigers top 10 as position players.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on May 5, 2021 15:56:38 GMT -5
Well Hairps, some more reviews like that and we don't have to argue about selecting or not selecting Davis - because he won't be around at pick 4.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 5, 2021 16:27:29 GMT -5
Tigers system is known to have much more pitchers than they do hitters. Their major league team is showing that struggle. Add in what I heard from scout.... I’ll be shocked if tigers go pitcher. Very surprised MLB.com has 7 of Tigers top 10 as position players. Yeah that reasoning is bananas. Great, you have Skubal, Mize, and Manning. Some other guys like Burrows and Faedo lower in the rankings. They're not all going to make it. All I can think of is when the Braves had Allard, Soroka, Anderson, Newcomb, Fried, Toussaint, Wright, Gohara, Wilson, Davidson and (coincidentally) Wentz. Some made it, some didn't. Here we are 3 years later and two of those guys are in the rotation, with a third who would be but injured. I love talking to scouts, but they say things sometimes that don't make sense. Maybe he's passing along what they're actually thinking, but if he is, that's legitimately stupid. If you wind up with too many pitchers then trade one.
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Post by tyler3 on May 5, 2021 16:51:00 GMT -5
All I was trying to say is if the top gets muddled, teams could run for the safety of a bat or cut a deal. The two bats I think everyone would like are Davis and Lawlar. Leiter and Rocker don’t strike me as guys that will go under slot. House and Mayer might. Add it all together the Red Sox might be looking at a choice of Leiter, Rocker, and say House. I’m not saying that’s bad or good just kind of scenario that wasn’t thought possible 3 weeks ago.
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Post by tyler3 on May 5, 2021 16:54:34 GMT -5
Anyway looks like Callis finished his latest Mock...should be out soon.
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Post by azblue on May 5, 2021 17:15:18 GMT -5
"All I was trying to say is if the top gets muddled, teams could run for the safety of a bat or cut a deal. ..." Tyler3, so you think that MLB teams can trade draft picks? ?
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 5, 2021 17:17:26 GMT -5
"All I was trying to say is if the top gets muddled, teams could run for the safety of a bat or cut a deal. ..." Tyler3, so you think that MLB teams can trade draft picks? ? I believe what he’s implying is getting a below-slot player at the spot
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on May 5, 2021 17:35:41 GMT -5
Another thought hit me. I know that if you don’t sign your pick you lose the slot money for that draft and drop a spot in the next draft. What if a scenario plays out where the Red Sox have pick 4 and Leiter is available. Leiter wants more than the slot value of pick number 4 or I go back to Vanderbilt.... would you rather have the 4th pick in this draft or 5th pick in next years draft? I’m leaning 4 in this one just wondered about that. Doesn't seem realistic for a lot of reasons. By rejecting a 1-4 slot bonus, Leiter would be passing up $6.6M. Even after taxes, that's enough to guarantee him a nice annual income stream for the rest of his life. Go back to Vandy and get hurt and he might take a major haircut or worse. Also, the RS will know what each potential No. 4 pick is demanding. If he's out of reach, they won't draft him. They're not going to fumble away the No. 4 pick for a pick in 2022. Our World Championship drought has stretched into its third year and has become unbearable. We need help as soon as we can get it. He'd also be passing up a chance to pitch for the Boston f'n Red Sox. If he doesn't get hurt next year at Vandy and gets drafted a bit higher, it's likely to be by a crap organization.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on May 5, 2021 18:20:24 GMT -5
Another thought hit me. I know that if you don’t sign your pick you lose the slot money for that draft and drop a spot in the next draft. What if a scenario plays out where the Red Sox have pick 4 and Leiter is available. Leiter wants more than the slot value of pick number 4 or I go back to Vanderbilt.... would you rather have the 4th pick in this draft or 5th pick in next years draft? I’m leaning 4 in this one just wondered about that. We can't really look at it as simply as if the sox don't sign their pick at 4 they'll get the 5th pick next year. There's more than 1 round in the draft and they won't be drafting as high next year the way its looking right now and hopefully not for a while either. By not signing a player at 4 they lose that slot money to use in the later rounds. If they're not sold on any of the guys at slot or certainly don't want to go over slot I'd rather sign an underslot guy and spread that money around on a higher upside guy at I believe pick 40?
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 5, 2021 18:25:33 GMT -5
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on May 5, 2021 18:35:19 GMT -5
Jim Callis’ latest mock: “4. Red Sox: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt Rocker's velocity dipped into the low 90s for three weeks early in the season but the Draft's most physical pitcher has performed consistently well and outperformed Leiter.” I'd be bummed if Mayer went in the top 3 and I'd be disappointed if they didn't take Mayer at 4 if he was there. I wouldn't be disappointed in rocker as a consolation at 4 though.
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Post by tyler3 on May 5, 2021 19:06:29 GMT -5
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Post by tyler3 on May 5, 2021 19:08:55 GMT -5
Mlb.com is the lowest on Davis and has him I think 6th on their board. I think he moves up and if Leiter continues to falter, I’d put Davis at 2.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on May 5, 2021 19:15:26 GMT -5
Also: “ Prep shortstop Brady House (Winder-Barrow HS, Winder, Ga.) and Louisville catcher Henry Davis are pushing their way into that group and could be in the mix for the Tigers at No. 3 and the Red Sox at No. 4”
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Post by tyler3 on May 5, 2021 19:17:00 GMT -5
Would love either:)
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Post by tyler3 on May 5, 2021 19:32:31 GMT -5
But here is the thing.....if Henry Davis continues to hit over 400 with a staggering OBP and power, who most agree will stick behind the plate with a 70 arm....as Red Sox Stats said what are the chances that guy doesn’t get picked up in the top 3 with literally no other college bat challenging him? And Lawlar can really do nothing at this point to to tank his stock once he righted the strikeouts. Which leaves one spot. Mayer is hammering the ball right now. Each Vanderbilt pitcher has experienced a 2 to 3 week velocity drop (assuming Leiter turns it around) and both have had trouble showing a consistent second pitch (Leiter doesn’t have his breaking stuff right now, Kumar’s fastball doesn’t miss too many bats). If the season ended right now I’d say there is a real shot at a Lawlar, Davis, Mayer top 3. But it doesn’t so let’s see.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 5, 2021 19:38:06 GMT -5
This may have been addressed already but would an automated strike zone help or hurt the value of a guy like Davis? It sounds like he needs work on his receiving behind the plate but if the zone was automated that's not as important and he's already got a great arm from the sounds. Maybe I answered my own question?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 5, 2021 19:59:41 GMT -5
The draft isn't for another 2.5 months. I'd presume the Red Sox still have 8-10 names on their board to be safe.
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Post by tyler3 on May 5, 2021 20:36:56 GMT -5
I’m sure they have a whole bunch of guys on the board Chris.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 5, 2021 22:39:07 GMT -5
Tigers system is known to have much more pitchers than they do hitters. Their major league team is showing that struggle. Add in what I heard from scout.... I’ll be shocked if tigers go pitcher. Very surprised MLB.com has 7 of Tigers top 10 as position players. Ummm mize, Manning, skunks, faedo, wentz, Franklin Perez, beau Burroughs, Then add in young guys. Soto, Alexander, funkhouser, Garcia, Jimenez, Norris ... trust me tigers have more pitching right now. Tork/greene are top hitters along with parades. And then many maybes for hitters who could develop or might be AAAA fodder. I own season tickets to their high a team. Meadows, there top hitting prospect after Riley greene hit around .220 in low a the last time mlb was played. That’s where I talked to the scout because I sat and watched the opening game on big screen! But hey. Let’s check out mlb and that list..... I mean that explains everything 🙄
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