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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by helenoftroyoleary on May 18, 2021 15:12:16 GMT -5
Take one of Marcelo, Lawler, Davis, and take Leiter if they are all gone. This isn’t hard. Position players are more valuable than pitchers when they make it. And they make it far more often. This seems about right to me — ignore the daytrader ups and downs and stick to best position player available sans a Leiter lottery win.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 18, 2021 15:26:50 GMT -5
The total WAR number is kind of tricky because of outliers (A-Rod). When they use median WAR instead, college OFs are best, followed by college catchers, college pitchers, and HS short stops. With the takeaway being that HS shortstops are higher ceiling probably, but higher risk. Other general takeaways: - Very rare for a top 5 player to not make the majors, as only 2 this century (Appel, Kyle Sleeth in 2003) have failed to make it (and Appel still could, interestingly enough). - In terms of likely WAR, I'd put the safest to riskiest demos at College OF, College C, College RHP, HS SS, which makes intuitive sense, but HS SS has the highest upside probably. - That said, I saw nothing in here that countered the argument that you just pick the guy you think is the best player. I would really have liked him to include HS RHP in this, as he used their current top 10 even while noting that Hoglund was going to fall out of it. I feel like there's a good chance Jobe climbs into the top 10. I'm sure it's the riskiest demo but it would've been nice to see HOW risky.
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Post by helenoftroyoleary on May 18, 2021 15:27:09 GMT -5
If it goes as expected (Leiter, Lawlar, Mayer in no certain order), the choice of Davis or Rocker is going to be quite interesting.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 18, 2021 15:28:27 GMT -5
If it goes as expected (Leiter, Lawlar, Mayer in no certain order), the choice of Davis or Rocker is going to be quite interesting. I wouldn't assume that. The only certainty so far is that things are still very uncertain at the top, based on everything I've seen.
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Post by helenoftroyoleary on May 18, 2021 16:20:00 GMT -5
With seven weeks to go, do you think anyone challenges those as the top 5? For as many criticisms as there are of no obvious top pick, I’ll be thrilled with any of them. Any one of these not the new #1 in the system?
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Post by voiceofreason on May 18, 2021 16:30:47 GMT -5
I have read some conflicting views on the strength of the draft. I have read deep but not that great at the top and now I have read that the top is loaded. You guys would know better, any thoughts?
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Post by dyoungteach on May 18, 2021 16:48:42 GMT -5
I have read some conflicting views on the strength of the draft. I have read deep but not that great at the top and now I have read that the top is loaded. You guys would know better, any thoughts? Everything I’ve seen is the former from the experts. From mlb network to fangraphs to baseball America it was the former statement and not the one having tons of elite talent up top. My sense is that’s playing out with the number of players who could be chosen in top 4 picks
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Post by dyoungteach on May 18, 2021 16:51:24 GMT -5
If it goes as expected (Leiter, Lawlar, Mayer in no certain order), the choice of Davis or Rocker is going to be quite interesting. If I was a betting man—- someone will cut a deal in top 3 and one of those players will be looking at us if not more. Although players have less leverage. There has been plenty of cases where players try to or do push down to a desired team they want. You have to think the Red Sox would be a desired team for any player being drafted high in the draft
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 18, 2021 19:36:43 GMT -5
With seven weeks to go, do you think anyone challenges those as the top 5? For as many criticisms as there are of no obvious top pick, I’ll be thrilled with any of them. Any one of these not the new #1 in the system? I was referring more to your assumption of the top 3, but I think you could definitely see teams cut deals with players as well. And we're still 2 months away but I actually would be surprised if the no. 4 pick is the top prospect in the system at that point.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 18, 2021 20:19:02 GMT -5
With seven weeks to go, do you think anyone challenges those as the top 5? For as many criticisms as there are of no obvious top pick, I’ll be thrilled with any of them. Any one of these not the new #1 in the system? I was referring more to your assumption of the top 3, but I think you could definitely see teams cut deals with players as well. And we're still 2 months away but I actually would be surprised if the no. 4 pick is the top prospect in the system at that point. Just curious but in regards to the no. 4 pick not necessarily being the top prospect in system is that due to some of the early season production from the guys like Casas, Duran, Jimenez or having a lower opinion than a few months ago of the potential picks at the top of the draft? I'm guessing/hoping it's the former?
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Post by pedroelgrande on May 18, 2021 20:46:56 GMT -5
With seven weeks to go, do you think anyone challenges those as the top 5? For as many criticisms as there are of no obvious top pick, I’ll be thrilled with any of them. Any one of these not the new #1 in the system? Jobe or Watson could jump into that top 5. I think they have loud tools which could wow in a private workout setting for teams maybe looking to cut a deal but still feel great about their pick.
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Post by tyler3 on May 19, 2021 1:24:41 GMT -5
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Post by tyler3 on May 19, 2021 1:32:24 GMT -5
The Top 10: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (TX) Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt Henry Davis, C, Louisville Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow (GA) Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (OK) Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) Ty Madden, RHP, Texas Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,983
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Post by jimoh on May 19, 2021 5:54:57 GMT -5
Every now and then, I read something on The Athletic that's been written by Jim Bowden, and I'm reminded why he's no longer a General Manager. You mean everything he writes or says? But again. Shoot he gets paid for this. We don’t so good for him "We don't so good for him." Who could disagree with that?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 19, 2021 6:22:37 GMT -5
I was referring more to your assumption of the top 3, but I think you could definitely see teams cut deals with players as well. And we're still 2 months away but I actually would be surprised if the no. 4 pick is the top prospect in the system at that point. Just curious but in regards to the no. 4 pick not necessarily being the top prospect in system is that due to some of the early season production from the guys like Casas, Duran, Jimenez or having a lower opinion than a few months ago of the potential picks at the top of the draft? I'm guessing/hoping it's the former? I've never thought the no. 4 pick was going to be the top prospect. I thought top 3 probably but Duran has put himself squarely into that conversation at this point (I gave thought to him over Downs at 2 this month in my personal rankings, but didn't... I think I might pull the trigger in June but we'll see). Listening to the national guys talk about this draft, it's not as strong at the very top as some past drafts (although it's weakest, relatively, in the 5-20 range, probably). Like I've heard multiple people (MLB and BA podcasts,and maybe Law too) say they prefer Asa Lacy at this time last year to either of the Vandy guys, and it's not like Lacy went 1-1. I'm not saying the pick won't be number 1, I'm just saying that based on things right now - which could change in the next 2 months, for sure! - I would need to research where to put him in the top 4 with Casas, Downs, and Duran in some order.
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Post by greatscottcooper on May 19, 2021 7:07:36 GMT -5
All I know if Austin Meadows is on the board we better not take Trey Ball (immediately ducks for cover)
Real talk though, with the "strength" talk I think it will be interesting to see who cuts a deal at the top if anyone. Also, if someone does "cut" a deal I'd be happy to take one of the top arms. Maybe it's us?
This is a topic I've been giving a lot of thought too and was thinking about last night. Let's say for example, and I'm just picking a random name here, that Texas takes someone like Jordan Wicks #2. How do we know for a fact they're "cutting a deal" over them truly ranking him #2. At the end of the day, 32 teams have 32 draft boards that we don't see. We build our own consensus based on a handful of outside rankings. Now, I'm sure this rings more true the further down the board you go and I know that people at MLB, BA, PG, etc talk to all the scouts and they have a pretty good idea at what the consensus is, but still, if a guy is taken a few spots sooner than anticipated maybe some teams are just higher on some guys than everyone else....I guess for lack of having anything of any real value to add I just leave it at that. It will be an interesting day for sure and can't come soon enough. Sorry about the Trey Ball comment, that's my horrible attempt at humor.
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Post by greatscottcooper on May 19, 2021 7:25:29 GMT -5
If the #4 pick doesn't crack the top 3 then I'll take that as a really really good sign. As that will say more about the performance of our system than it will about the player. Heck, with that in mind, I hope he doesn't crack the top 5.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 19, 2021 7:32:16 GMT -5
Is there any pressure to take a Rocker if he is there based on the Sox inability to produce a homegrown starter in years?
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Post by greatscottcooper on May 19, 2021 7:39:22 GMT -5
Is there any pressure to take a Rocker if he is there based on the Sox inability to produce a homegrown starter in years? Inherently one has to believe at the very least the Sox lack of success with Pitchers is just bad luck. Pitchers are hard to draft and develop, but it's really tough to look at their track record. I don't think I'm smart enough to say we can't draft or develop pitchers, but if the problem was the Sox ability to scout and develop talent I would think the solution would be personel changes to scout and develop pitchers better. The personel today, is different than it was 10 years ago, for all we know the Sox could be the best team at developing pitchers over the next 10 years. Personally, and I know pitchers are riskier, I have a hard time passing up top pitching talent, but admittedly I'm not a very risk adverse person.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 19, 2021 8:28:26 GMT -5
You mean everything he writes or says? But again. Shoot he gets paid for this. We don’t so good for him "We don't so good for him." Who could disagree with that? And your comment has what baseball point to it?? Just curious if you come on here to pick apart people or talk baseball?? “We don’t, so good for him.” Sorry for the lack of punctuation.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 19, 2021 8:35:57 GMT -5
Just curious but in regards to the no. 4 pick not necessarily being the top prospect in system is that due to some of the early season production from the guys like Casas, Duran, Jimenez or having a lower opinion than a few months ago of the potential picks at the top of the draft? I'm guessing/hoping it's the former? I've never thought the no. 4 pick was going to be the top prospect. I thought top 3 probably but Duran has put himself squarely into that conversation at this point (I gave thought to him over Downs at 2 this month in my personal rankings, but didn't... I think I might pull the trigger in June but we'll see). Listening to the national guys talk about this draft, it's not as strong at the very top as some past drafts (although it's weakest, relatively, in the 5-20 range, probably). Like I've heard multiple people (MLB and BA podcasts,and maybe Law too) say they prefer Asa Lacy at this time last year to either of the Vandy guys, and it's not like Lacy went 1-1. I'm not saying the pick won't be number 1, I'm just saying that based on things right now - which could change in the next 2 months, for sure! - I would need to research where to put him in the top 4 with Casas, Downs, and Duran in some order. High first round picks usually rank high, but even with torkelson last year it was a conversation between him and Riley greene for who was top prospect in their system ( or even Matt Manning). Pirates top pick will have a hard time ranking over Quinn protester or Nick Gonzales. Rangers have Josh jung and Cole Winn and even Maximo Acosta ( who I’ve seen ranked potential top 5 in baseball next year). And tigers with have Tork and greene to contend with for whomever they pick. It happens but to have a guy rank right at the top of a quality system has to indicate an extremely rate player. Reflective to our system, it sure would be hard to rank whomever over casas or Duran. Downs is eh. But he’s closer to the majors.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 19, 2021 8:40:09 GMT -5
All I know if Austin Meadows is on the board we better not take Trey Ball (immediately ducks for cover) Real talk though, with the "strength" talk I think it will be interesting to see who cuts a deal at the top if anyone. Also, if someone does "cut" a deal I'd be happy to take one of the top arms. Maybe it's us? This is a topic I've been giving a lot of thought too and was thinking about last night. Let's say for example, and I'm just picking a random name here, that Texas takes someone like Jordan Wicks #2. How do we know for a fact they're "cutting a deal" over them truly ranking him #2. At the end of the day, 32 teams have 32 draft boards that we don't see. We build our own consensus based on a handful of outside rankings. Now, I'm sure this rings more true the further down the board you go and I know that people at MLB, BA, PG, etc talk to all the scouts and they have a pretty good idea at what the consensus is, but still, if a guy is taken a few spots sooner than anticipated maybe some teams are just higher on some guys than everyone else....I guess for lack of having anything of any real value to add I just leave it at that. It will be an interesting day for sure and can't come soon enough. Sorry about the Trey Ball comment, that's my horrible attempt at humor. Don’t think trey ball was humor although it is humorous to see how that turned out and hope we learned from that mistake. Usually you can tell if a deal was struck by the bonus amount compared to relative expected draft position for the player picked. For example if player x was expected to go top 10 but goes 2, however his bonus amount leaves the drafting team an additional $700,000 to spend.... it sure appears that a deal was cut before the pick was made and that player was at least partially picked due to the cost of signing him
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Post by tyler3 on May 19, 2021 9:19:42 GMT -5
I don’t think we have to specifically worry about trey ball. That was a time when fastball metrics were less developed and teams would take high velocity teens with out a breaking ball. Wasn’t his dad’s quote, “he’ll throw a breaking ball when someone pays him to throw a breaking ball”. I believe these days if you take a guy in the first half of the first round the fastball metrics have to be decent and the guy must have an advanced secondary pitch. Just my thoughts. Not gonna lie I’m getting seduced by the Jobe talk….gotta stay strong.
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Post by kingstephanos on May 19, 2021 9:20:27 GMT -5
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Post by borisman on May 19, 2021 9:41:26 GMT -5
Does anyone else throw up a little every time they read "Trey Ball"?
I am very upset about Mayer. He's the only player I'm really high on. I like some of the other prospects but think Mayer will turn out to be a beast.
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