SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2021 MLB Draft
|
Post by tyler3 on May 19, 2021 11:14:26 GMT -5
Geez here’s Callis answering the question, Jobe is the best HS RHP pitcher since…
“ Hunter Greene, who was No. 1 on our 2017 Draft Top 200. And while Greene threw harder, Jobe has a far superior breaking ball, a more advanced changeup and similar control and command, so it could be argued that Greene wasn't necessarily better. One crosschecker I know saw Jobe pitch so well that he gave him an 80 slider, a 70 fastball and changeup and 60 command on the 20-80 scouting scale.”
I get that the cross checker probably saw Jobe at his best but…as someone on here rightly corrected me Greene’s career is not a bust yet and is looking good this spring. Everyone in the top 6 has warts. Marcelo not the fastest and may have to eventually move off SS depending on the body development. Lawlar striking out a ton earlier this spring and producing just 4 dingers, Leiter vs durability, Davis not the best blocker, low launch angle, strength based swing, Rocker vs fast ball command/velocity and viable change, House vs hit tool and moving off SS, Jobe……..well…..he’s athletic, 6ft 2in, three current plus pitches and command, easy delivery….just the risk of the profile……which is risky but when’s the last time a HS pitcher with 3 plus pitches was even around to bust? Hunter Greene had 1 elite pitch with a slider projected to be above average. You can’t really compare this guy to Kolek, Pint, Ball (lefty) or even Greene. In my opinion it’s ok to say I don’t care, HS righty in second round. But Jobe might be the BPA in the entire draft.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on May 19, 2021 11:33:58 GMT -5
Hmmm...I'll throw a question out there. At what price point would you want to grab a guy outside of the top 5 (Lawlar, Mayer, Leiter, Rocker, and Davis) if that guy were Jobe (or Bachman or Khalil Watson or Sal Frelick)? If Jobe's agent is getting a clear indication that he's not getting drafted in the top 5 at slot, would you draft him at #4 if he were willing to take a $5.5M bonus (which is a bonus that falls between the #6 and #7 slots positions saving us $1.17M)? Would you rather have a draft that ensures one of the top 5, or would you rather walk away with something like Jackson Jobe and Gunnar Hoglund as the top 2? Note -- I realize you can't assume that automatically gets you Hoglund, but that hypothetical $1.2M allows you to make a sizable splash at some point.
|
|
|
Post by tyler3 on May 19, 2021 11:41:16 GMT -5
That’s what I was wondering..the orioles have been notoriously anti-pitcher/pitcher wary at the top of the draft for the last 2 years and have heavily scouted Watson and House. So 6 may realistically be Jobe’s ceiling…
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on May 19, 2021 11:59:37 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 19, 2021 12:30:26 GMT -5
Hmmm...I'll throw a question out there. At what price point would you want to grab a guy outside of the top 5 (Lawlar, Mayer, Leiter, Rocker, and Davis) if that guy were Jobe (or Bachman or Khalil Watson or Sal Frelick)? If Jobe's agent is getting a clear indication that he's not getting drafted in the top 5 at slot, would you draft him at #4 if he were willing to take a $5.5M bonus (which is a bonus that falls between the #6 and #7 slots positions saving us $1.17M)? Would you rather have a draft that ensures one of the top 5, or would you rather walk away with something like Jackson Jobe and Gunnar Hoglund as the top 2? Note -- I realize you can't assume that automatically gets you Hoglund, but that hypothetical $1.2M allows you to make a sizable splash at some point. My price point would probably entirely depend on who the guy that's available for the pick is. If Davis is available it would probably have to be ~$2 million in slot savings for me to be excited about it. If Mayer is there, maybe 1.5, and if it's one of the Vandy pitchers I'd say probably a $5.5 million bonus like you suggest would be fine.
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on May 19, 2021 12:53:41 GMT -5
The only one that I have conviction on and would run to the podium with the pick is Marcelo Mayer otherwise the Red Sox can get cute with the pick.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,929
|
Post by nomar on May 19, 2021 12:58:28 GMT -5
Sign me up for Davis over Rocker at this point.
|
|
|
Post by dyoungteach on May 19, 2021 15:17:46 GMT -5
The only one that I have conviction on and would run to the podium with the pick is Marcelo Mayer otherwise the Red Sox can get cute with the pick. I would think lawyer also. But from there it’s interesting for sure
|
|
|
Post by dyoungteach on May 19, 2021 15:19:22 GMT -5
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,991
|
Post by jimoh on May 19, 2021 17:12:06 GMT -5
"We don't so good for him." Who could disagree with that? And your comment has what baseball point to it?? Just curious if you come on here to pick apart people or talk baseball?? “We don’t, so good for him.” Sorry for the lack of punctuation. I literally had no idea what you meant. Punctuation, spelling (Lawlar--probably an autocorrect problem), capital letters: they're not that hard. I'd appreciate it if you'd just take the time. A few years ago when Clay Buchholz was young the site [[correction: I'm told that was SOSH]]was set up so that whenever anyone spelled his name wrong it turned into "I am an idiot" I've enjoyed a lot of your posts lately.
|
|
|
Post by dyoungteach on May 19, 2021 17:31:12 GMT -5
And your comment has what baseball point to it?? Just curious if you come on here to pick apart people or talk baseball?? “We don’t, so good for him.” Sorry for the lack of punctuation. I literally had no idea what you meant. Punctuation, spelling (Lawlar--probably an autocorrect problem), capital letters: they're not that hard. I'd appreciate it if you'd just take the time. A few years ago when Clay Buchholz was young the site was set up so that whenever anyone spelled his name wrong it turned into "I am an idiot" I've enjoyed a lot of your posts lately. m I’m bad at proofreading. Will watch it. Thank you for the compliment. Sorry I got defensive!!
|
|
|
Post by tyler3 on May 19, 2021 17:38:12 GMT -5
Wow…that got resolved…now where is that mlb mock.
|
|
|
Post by wOBA Fett on May 19, 2021 18:07:26 GMT -5
Hmmm...I'll throw a question out there. At what price point would you want to grab a guy outside of the top 5 (Lawlar, Mayer, Leiter, Rocker, and Davis) if that guy were Jobe (or Bachman or Khalil Watson or Sal Frelick)? If Jobe's agent is getting a clear indication that he's not getting drafted in the top 5 at slot, would you draft him at #4 if he were willing to take a $5.5M bonus (which is a bonus that falls between the #6 and #7 slots positions saving us $1.17M)? Would you rather have a draft that ensures one of the top 5, or would you rather walk away with something like Jackson Jobe and Gunnar Hoglund as the top 2? Note -- I realize you can't assume that automatically gets you Hoglund, but that hypothetical $1.2M allows you to make a sizable splash at some point. I think it depends on whether you think Jobe is legitimately better than Rocker or Leiter. That's the type of move that can end a promising career if it backfires because you passed on a higher rated player to get a slightly better player in the second round (who may not be there). You don't have much choice in who is available in the second round, but you do when you're picking 4th overall. If I thought Jobe was better than Leiter or Rocker, I'd offer him something around 6MM. HS players have more leverage than you think with the ability to go to college and potentially get drafted even higher with a higher slot.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on May 19, 2021 18:24:25 GMT -5
Hmmm...I'll throw a question out there. At what price point would you want to grab a guy outside of the top 5 (Lawlar, Mayer, Leiter, Rocker, and Davis) if that guy were Jobe (or Bachman or Khalil Watson or Sal Frelick)? If Jobe's agent is getting a clear indication that he's not getting drafted in the top 5 at slot, would you draft him at #4 if he were willing to take a $5.5M bonus (which is a bonus that falls between the #6 and #7 slots positions saving us $1.17M)? Would you rather have a draft that ensures one of the top 5, or would you rather walk away with something like Jackson Jobe and Gunnar Hoglund as the top 2? Note -- I realize you can't assume that automatically gets you Hoglund, but that hypothetical $1.2M allows you to make a sizable splash at some point. I think it depends on whether you think Jobe is legitimately better than Rocker or Leiter. That's the type of move that can end a promising career if it backfires because you passed on a higher rated player to get a slightly better player in the second round (who may not be there). You don't have much choice in who is available in the second round, but you do when you're picking 4th overall. If I thought Jobe was better than Leiter or Rocker, I'd offer him something around 6MM. HS players have more leverage than you think with the ability to go to college and potentially get drafted even higher with a higher slot. I guess since these guys are high end lottery picks if you could grab Jobe, save a million and use it to get another high end prospect it has to be an option to consider. But that would be playing a very risky game. It reminds me of when Danny Ainge had the #1 and traded down 2 spots to #3 and an extra #1 pick the next year, which was expected to be another high pick. He got Jason Tatum at #3. I think the Sox could possibly manufacture something like that and get a great #2. Jud Fabian maybe?
|
|
|
Post by wOBA Fett on May 19, 2021 18:43:44 GMT -5
I think it depends on whether you think Jobe is legitimately better than Rocker or Leiter. That's the type of move that can end a promising career if it backfires because you passed on a higher rated player to get a slightly better player in the second round (who may not be there). You don't have much choice in who is available in the second round, but you do when you're picking 4th overall. If I thought Jobe was better than Leiter or Rocker, I'd offer him something around 6MM. HS players have more leverage than you think with the ability to go to college and potentially get drafted even higher with a higher slot. I guess since these guys are high end lottery picks if you could grab Jobe, save a million and use it to get another high end prospect it has to be an option to consider. But that would be playing a very risky game. It reminds me of when Danny Ainge had the #1 and traded down 2 spots to #3 and an extra #1 pick the next year, which was expected to be another high pick. He got Jason Tatum at #3. I think the Sox could possibly manufacture something like that and get a great #2. Jud Fabian maybe? The Red Sox can reduce that risk substantially by picking a player like Rocker or Leiter who by all accounts have a floor of a #3 starter. These guys are proven pitchers with near elite stuff and have consistently posted numbers at the highest level of college baseball. Jobe has the metrics and likely has the highest ceiling of the three, but he is much more of a lottery pick than Rocker or Leiter, who are probably two of the safest picks in the draft and should be major league ready by late 2022.
|
|
|
Post by tyler3 on May 19, 2021 19:32:10 GMT -5
I think the above are good points but Leiter is a small pitcher whose never pitched a full college season, had three bad games and had to take a day off. Rocker had some games at the beginning were he was sitting 95-98 then a couple 89-91 and everything in between. Just saying still some pretty good risk with the college guys in my opinion.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on May 19, 2021 20:20:50 GMT -5
I guess since these guys are high end lottery picks if you could grab Jobe, save a million and use it to get another high end prospect it has to be an option to consider. But that would be playing a very risky game. It reminds me of when Danny Ainge had the #1 and traded down 2 spots to #3 and an extra #1 pick the next year, which was expected to be another high pick. He got Jason Tatum at #3. I think the Sox could possibly manufacture something like that and get a great #2. Jud Fabian maybe? The Red Sox can reduce that risk substantially by picking a player like Rocker or Leiter who by all accounts have a floor of a #3 starter. These guys are proven pitchers with near elite stuff and have consistently posted numbers at the highest level of college baseball. Jobe has the metrics and likely has the highest ceiling of the three, but he is much more of a lottery pick than Rocker or Leiter, who are probably two of the safest picks in the draft and should be major league ready by late 2022. If Leiter and Rocker had floors of a 3 starter they'd probably be the guaranteed 1st and 2nd pick. They both have a lot of upside but they aren't guarantees at all.
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on May 19, 2021 20:23:47 GMT -5
This guy sounds interesting for the 2nd Round.
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on May 19, 2021 21:53:14 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by tyler3 on May 19, 2021 22:04:04 GMT -5
Hey check that out dyoungteach
|
|
|
Post by dyoungteach on May 20, 2021 4:52:39 GMT -5
Ok that’s a wrap. No more mock drafting. Take this one and make the law. Red Sox have to follow this Jonathan Mayo character. He’s really smart. ( said in joking manner). I suspect this will be an interesting pick and will also show how tight lipped bloom and his team are going to be over his term here. The only 3 players I’ve read them scouting have been the 2 vandy pitchers and the catcher. Otherwise there has not been much noise
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 20, 2021 7:14:06 GMT -5
A few years ago when Clay Buchholz was young the site was set up so that whenever anyone spelled his name wrong it turned into "I am an idiot" To be clear, I think that was SOSH.
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on May 20, 2021 7:18:40 GMT -5
The global pandemic reduced last year's player pool by 90% so I'm assuming this is the driving force in the "depth" of this class. I'd guess it wouldn't make much of a difference at the top, and it certainly wouldn't take away much leverage from a high schooler who can just go to college, but I have to think that the senior sign talent this year is going to be about twice as strong as last year. I suppose a Junior could always return for their senior year too, but, one would have to think a scouting department working overtime could find some nice returns in the depth of this draft.
|
|
|
Post by dyoungteach on May 20, 2021 8:10:30 GMT -5
The global pandemic reduced last year's player pool by 90% so I'm assuming this is the driving force in the "depth" of this class. I'd guess it wouldn't make much of a difference at the top, and it certainly wouldn't take away much leverage from a high schooler who can just go to college, but I have to think that the senior sign talent this year is going to be about twice as strong as last year. I suppose a Junior could always return for their senior year too, but, one would have to think a scouting department working overtime could find some nice returns in the depth of this draft. I’ve been really impressed with the nice value Red Sox have gotten later in draft at lower bonus amounts. ( Duran and ward and even Vasquez awhile ago). So giving credit to that department, this entire draft could be a fun one to follow over the next few years
|
|
mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,813
|
Post by mobaz on May 20, 2021 9:16:40 GMT -5
Guys, I just spent a few minutes looking at the Top 10 from the 2013 to 2016 drafts, and it sucked all the wind out of my sails. Drafting is hard!!
|
|
|