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Post by helenoftroyoleary on May 20, 2021 9:21:56 GMT -5
Anything is possible but I would be very surprised to see the Sox pass on Leiter and Rocker, particularly for a volatile stock like Brady House.
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Post by helenoftroyoleary on May 20, 2021 9:25:34 GMT -5
One of Lawlar/Mayer, if not one of Leiter/Rocker, if not Davis.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 20, 2021 10:32:59 GMT -5
Anything is possible but I would be very surprised to see the Sox pass on Leiter and Rocker, particularly for a volatile stock like Brady House. Respectfully.... if you have been reading the input on different players over past 2-3 months, I don’t know that any one player is more or less volatile than another. Especially in people’s minds. We know Red Sox are scouting both the pitchers heavily. And I’m not so sure this wasn’t just a beat guess type mock although he usually has his ears to the ground if you will.
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Post by kman22 on May 20, 2021 10:54:56 GMT -5
Anything is possible but I would be very surprised to see the Sox pass on Leiter and Rocker, particularly for a volatile stock like Brady House. Respectfully.... if you have been reading the input on different players over past 2-3 months, I don’t know that any one player is more or less volatile than another. Especially in people’s minds. We know Red Sox are scouting both the pitchers heavily. And I’m not so sure this wasn’t just a beat guess type mock although he usually has his ears to the ground if you will. Volatility wise, Rocker and Leiter have pretty much remained top 5 picks throughout. House dropped significantly (relative) and has now risen up the board again. Not saying pick one vs the other, but House has been the more volatile stock. Suppose it is important to note that that's based on mock drafts and prospect rankings, so maybe House has consistently been a top 5 pick for some teams, but sticking to what we know.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 20, 2021 11:52:56 GMT -5
Yeah read mocks carefully. I've come to learn that one player who was mocked to the Red Sox last year just due to where he was ranked by outlets wasn't even on their radar for that pick.
Usually, if a writer is basing the projection on hearing who a team likes, he'll say so. If he doesn't, just understand that "this seems like a fit" is different than "I'm hearing this is where they're going."
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Post by ramireja on May 20, 2021 12:10:07 GMT -5
...and let's be honest, writers and industry experts almost never have that level of info as much as some pretend they do. Teams would be foolish to leak that info. Most the team-to-player projection is probably some combo of tracking of the audience in attendance during those player's games, having a feel for a team's drafting preferences from previous years (e.g., demographic info, model-based leanings, tools vs. performance, etc.), and where a team is picking vs. where the player is projected to go.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 20, 2021 12:26:41 GMT -5
Yeah, like I'm now seeing a lot of "the Red Sox aren't afraid to go off the board" because of the Yorke pick, but I'm not sure that's true. In a really weird year, they thought Yorke was an appropriate pick there. This isn't a fantasy baseball draft in which everyone's sitting around with the BA and MLB.com and PG rankings in front of them and looking at who's available.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 20, 2021 12:33:08 GMT -5
PSA: Rocker is pitching tonight against Kentucky at 7:30pm.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 20, 2021 14:00:46 GMT -5
Yeah, like I'm now seeing a lot of "the Red Sox aren't afraid to go off the board" because of the Yorke pick, but I'm not sure that's true. In a really weird year, they thought Yorke was an appropriate pick there. This isn't a fantasy baseball draft in which everyone's sitting around with the BA and MLB.com and PG rankings in front of them and looking at who's available. Ild be willing to guess Red Sox look at or are plenty aware of 7-8 players for their spot. I’m sure they will have done homework in many ways including expected signing bonus and perceived player “values” or what kind of kid they are getting. We know they have scoured the college guys. And I’ve read only that “house is a bloom type of pick”.. In years past, this will flush out over next 1-1.5 months. ( in terms of more solid rumors of who they like). Speaking of last years pick.... did I see he has a high number of errors? (6). That’s a bit more scary than the low batting average. At end of day so long as Sox have depth and flexibility I think we will be both a fun team to follow and a competitive team in standings.
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Post by 2pacac on May 20, 2021 14:00:47 GMT -5
One of Lawlar/Mayer, if not one of Leiter/Rocker, if not Davis. I like Leiter (probably the most) for his relative lack of prior use in high school and college, his pedigree (dad played in MLB) and stuff (maybe the best fastball in the draft). Feel like any of those top 5-6 kids have a good chance to make it and have some pros and cons.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 20, 2021 16:17:37 GMT -5
I know you don’t draft for need. Do you start to draft for how the game is changing? Just read an article that says “ every pitcher starting this year feels like they can throw a no hitter”. ( fangraphs). Further mlb is on pace for not just a record year of no hitters but to absolutely demolish the mlb record (7). We already have had 6 and we aren’t 1/4 way through season. Hitters are hitting at lowest ba ever at this time of season.
Does a team start drafting for that vs what seems like an abundance of quality starters. And yes we all know how I feel we should draft but I’m more posing the thought of : Do teams start to adjust their thinking where that will be taken into consideration in regards to picking up their next batch of mlb players.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 20, 2021 16:26:41 GMT -5
I know you don’t draft for need. Do you start to draft for how the game is changing? Just read an article that says “ every pitcher starting this year feels like they can throw a no hitter”. ( fangraphs). Further mlb is on pace for not just a record year of no hitters but to absolutely demolish the mlb record (7). We already have had 6 and we aren’t 1/4 way through season. Hitters are hitting at lowest ba ever at this time of season. Does a team start drafting for that vs what seems like an abundance of quality starters. And yes we all know how I feel we should draft but I’m more posing the thought of : Do teams start to adjust their thinking where that will be taken into consideration in regards to picking up their next batch of mlb players. The issue with this line of thinking is it assumes the changes in the game right now are fixed long-term, when in reality there will probably be moves in the coming years to counteract some of the current changes. If you draft based on what is happening in the MLB in 2021, and they move the mound back in 2023, then maybe that completely changes the viability of some prospects. It probably doesn't, but the game is going to consistently change in one way or another so drafting based on the current iteration of the game when prospects usually don't make it to the majors until at least 2 or three years isn't a great strategy compared to, say, basketball where if you find a guy that can space the floor like the league is gravitating towards he can play right away.
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Post by incandenza on May 20, 2021 16:42:54 GMT -5
I know you don’t draft for need. Do you start to draft for how the game is changing? Just read an article that says “ every pitcher starting this year feels like they can throw a no hitter”. ( fangraphs). Further mlb is on pace for not just a record year of no hitters but to absolutely demolish the mlb record (7). We already have had 6 and we aren’t 1/4 way through season. Hitters are hitting at lowest ba ever at this time of season. Does a team start drafting for that vs what seems like an abundance of quality starters. And yes we all know how I feel we should draft but I’m more posing the thought of : Do teams start to adjust their thinking where that will be taken into consideration in regards to picking up their next batch of mlb players. What does "drafting for that" mean? Whatever the offensive environment is, you want hitters who hit better than league average, and pitchers that pitch better than league average.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 20, 2021 16:45:48 GMT -5
Yeah, a couple years back you could've asked (and actually, we were asked on the podcast) if you start drafting for the juiced ball.
I think you draft baseball tools and skills that will play at the major league level. Who knows what the game will look like in 3 years?
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Post by dyoungteach on May 20, 2021 16:54:00 GMT -5
Yeah, a couple years back you could've asked (and actually, we were asked on the podcast) if you start drafting for the juiced ball. I think you draft baseball tools and skills that will play at the major league level. Who knows what the game will look like in 3 years? More specifically I wonder what the mix of hitters vs pitchers will be. If a greater emphasis will be put on the impact hitter or contact hitter be the pitcher. If anything because a .250 average is above league average right now. I absolutely agree that they will adjust, but usually that adjustment doesn’t happen for 4-5 years given this is the first year with reduced batting statistics.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on May 20, 2021 17:59:55 GMT -5
Another talent I like for the latter rounds: Braylon Bishop, OF, Texarkana. Dude's FAST (a HS track and field star) with a great arm. He has one of the best strike zone awareness for a HS hitter in the whole draft and his swing is very very similar to Cody Bellinger. Tools are loud, needs to clean a few things up with his swing, especially an odd hand hitch, to make more consistent contact. High schoolers with contact issues are very risky I know but the ceiling for this kid is off the charts. He's an Arkansas commit where he'll play baseball and football.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 20, 2021 18:28:47 GMT -5
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on May 20, 2021 19:52:14 GMT -5
Rocker with 9 Ks through 5 against Kentucky no runs allowed. Only 3 base runners allowed so far. Just checking the box score so not sure how his stuff looks.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 20, 2021 19:55:35 GMT -5
Rocker with 9 Ks through 5 against Kentucky no runs allowed. Only 3 base runners allowed so far. Just checking the box score so not sure how his stuff looks. He was absolutely cruising through 5.2 IP, then walked a guy followed by a two run bomb to John Rhoades (2-3 round draft prospect).
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on May 20, 2021 19:59:47 GMT -5
Rocker with 9 Ks through 5 against Kentucky no runs allowed. Only 3 base runners allowed so far. Just checking the box score so not sure how his stuff looks. He was absolutely cruising through 5.2 IP, then walked a guy followed by a two run bomb to John Rhoades (2-3 round draft prospect). Guess I jinxed him haha.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 20, 2021 20:37:37 GMT -5
Rocker is done after 7: 7 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 2 ER, 11 Ks, 101 pitches (66 strikes). One of the hits was a bunt. I didn't watch and don't know what his velo was, but obviously seems like a fairly encouraging start. The rest of his starts will be in the SEC and NCAA tournaments.
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Post by ramireja on May 21, 2021 0:10:41 GMT -5
A few of those sliders from tonight:
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 21, 2021 11:24:16 GMT -5
From Keith Law's chat today:
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Post by incandenza on May 21, 2021 11:40:19 GMT -5
From Keith Law's chat today: I wonder if that means they'd prefer college over any high school - as in they'd take any of those three over both Mayer and Lawlar - or if it just means they'd take any of those three over any of the HS guys that aren't universally regarded as top-4 picks.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 21, 2021 11:45:35 GMT -5
From Keith Law's chat today: Interesting quote. Will be even more interesting to reflect back on in 3-5 weeks
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