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8/10-8/13 Red Sox vs. Rays Series Thread
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Post by jdb on Aug 11, 2020 13:02:35 GMT -5
TB seemed to run all sorts of catchers out there while Bloom was there I wouldn’t be surprised if he values them a certain way that might make Vazquez expendable.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 11, 2020 13:37:33 GMT -5
Fun fact of the day; 2013 Red Sox top OF OPS plus was 118, Verdugo has a 116 OPS plus currently. I don't think we were in trouble that year😁.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 11, 2020 13:39:19 GMT -5
Yeah I think you're taking the extremely pessimistic view. The organization doesn't need to build another 2018 juggernaut to be successful. There are holes in the lineup, sure. Find me a team that has none. I think part of your thinking is probably colored by the fact that Bogaerts and Vazquez are probably the only ones hitting above their 50 percent projections right now who are full-time players (plus Moreland part-time). Bradley is gone after this year probably, to be replaced most likely by Duran (unless they bring JBJ back on a pillow contract?). I see your point about not wanting to Feed the Monster again. But there's a gap between that solution and "trade everyone for prospects" where creative solutions lie. That specifically is what Bloom was brought in to do. 2022 might be when they become legit contenders again, but punting on 2021 entirely isn't necessarily the only way to get there. EDIT: For what it's worth, I just saw a tweet that MLB teams are hitting .230, the first time since 1968 they've hit below .240. The pitchers are winning right now. And to be fair, I've got no idea how to fix the rotation. I just know they need two legitimate starters next year, and that's if ERod comes back. That's a huge concern! but again, "blow it up we need a new rotation" isn't the only way to fix that. As an aside, I saw that. That batting averages are microscopic, but unlike 1968 when the league ERA was just under 3 the league ERA is just above 4. It's most likely the result of extreme shifting making the difficulty of stringing hits together to score runs a less viable strategy than simply going for HRs or broke, which is too bad. I like it better when different kinds of offenses can thrive.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 11, 2020 13:51:50 GMT -5
Those numbers are even worse than they look when you consider the NL has a DH this year.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 11, 2020 14:03:47 GMT -5
TB seemed to run all sorts of catchers out there while Bloom was there I wouldn’t be surprised if he values them a certain way that might make Vazquez expendable. I wouldn't assume that. There's valuing players a certain way and there's understanding scarce resources and finding creative ways to deal with that scarcity. Good catchers are hard to come by. Just because the Rays didn't trade for Realmuto doesn't mean they think you don't need a good catcher. It's like the opener - you use an opener in lieu of having a starting pitcher who you're comfortable having face the top of an order two or three times. You don't trade away an established starting pitcher in order to use an opener the same way you wouldn't trade Vazquez in order to use the catcher pu pu platter. Now, if it's going to cost too much to re-sign Vazquez, that's a different story. It might be that if you feel Vazquez is going to cost significantly more than he's worth, and you feel the middle tier of catchers is also overvalued, you choose options from the tier below with the thinking that the difference in performance isn't as great as the difference in price for that production.
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Post by Addam603 on Aug 11, 2020 15:03:14 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Aug 11, 2020 15:04:56 GMT -5
Fun fact of the day; 2013 Red Sox top OF OPS plus was 118, Verdugo has a 116 OPS plus currently. I don't think we were in trouble that year😁. That 2013 team is a good example of how you never know how a team might come together and be successful. No one on the team had better than 4.9 fWAR. The top 5 starters combined for 11.2 WAR. Lester had the most at 3.3. Only Buchholz (in 16 starts) had a sub-3.50 ERA. Does a rotation of Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, Doubront, and Dempster really seem that much better than what we could reasonably hope to get next year? On the other hand, it's remarkable how almost everyone on that team was at least pretty good, just an extremely balanced roster - something you couldn't even say of the 2018 team, which had a few glaring holes. Can Bloom be good/lucky enough to put together a roster like that? I'd like to find out...
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Post by manfred on Aug 11, 2020 15:12:16 GMT -5
Fun fact of the day; 2013 Red Sox top OF OPS plus was 118, Verdugo has a 116 OPS plus currently. I don't think we were in trouble that year😁. That 2013 team is a good example of how you never know how a team might come together and be successful. No one on the team had better than 4.9 fWAR. The top 5 starters combined for 11.2 WAR. Lester had the most at 3.3. Only Buchholz (in 16 starts) had a sub-3.50 ERA. Does a rotation of Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, Doubront, and Dempster really seem that much better than what we could reasonably hope to get next year? On the other hand, it's remarkable how almost everyone on that team was at least pretty good, just an extremely balanced roster - something you couldn't even say of the 2018 team, which had a few glaring holes. Can Bloom be good/lucky enough to put together a roster like that? I'd like to find out... And yet Ellsbury, Victorino, and Nava combined for just under 15 bWAR. At the moment, our starting outfield is a combine 0.0 bWAR. I believe that would be a *checks calculator* 0.0 pace for a full season.
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,492
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Post by shagworthy on Aug 11, 2020 15:53:47 GMT -5
Our Nuke Laloosh! Somebody get that man a garter belt, and watch out.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 11, 2020 15:56:23 GMT -5
Fun fact of the day; 2013 Red Sox top OF OPS plus was 118, Verdugo has a 116 OPS plus currently. I don't think we were in trouble that year😁. That 2013 team is a good example of how you never know how a team might come together and be successful. No one on the team had better than 4.9 fWAR. The top 5 starters combined for 11.2 WAR. Lester had the most at 3.3. Only Buchholz (in 16 starts) had a sub-3.50 ERA. Does a rotation of Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, Doubront, and Dempster really seem that much better than what we could reasonably hope to get next year? On the other hand, it's remarkable how almost everyone on that team was at least pretty good, just an extremely balanced roster - something you couldn't even say of the 2018 team, which had a few glaring holes. Can Bloom be good/lucky enough to put together a roster like that? I'd like to find out... I don't see why not, it's creepy how similar it is and Bloom will have a huge advantage with free agency likely being crazy weak. 2013 everything went right, they got lucky vs 2014 when not much did. It's like 2018 vs. 2019
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 11, 2020 16:05:30 GMT -5
That 2013 team is a good example of how you never know how a team might come together and be successful. No one on the team had better than 4.9 fWAR. The top 5 starters combined for 11.2 WAR. Lester had the most at 3.3. Only Buchholz (in 16 starts) had a sub-3.50 ERA. Does a rotation of Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, Doubront, and Dempster really seem that much better than what we could reasonably hope to get next year? On the other hand, it's remarkable how almost everyone on that team was at least pretty good, just an extremely balanced roster - something you couldn't even say of the 2018 team, which had a few glaring holes. Can Bloom be good/lucky enough to put together a roster like that? I'd like to find out... And yet Ellsbury, Victorino, and Nava combined for just under 15 bWAR. At the moment, our starting outfield is a combine 0.0 bWAR. I believe that would be a *checks calculator* 0.0 pace for a full season. I'd question bwar defensive totals, which gave both Victorino and Ellsbury career best. There is human error in those numbers and fangraphs doesn't agree on the D. Nevermind Victorino had a .677 OPS a month into the season, so let's not judge a group with such a small sample size.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 11, 2020 16:12:30 GMT -5
I understand its apples and oranges but Arauz would be at the same spot as Wong if he wasn't selected in the Rule 5 draft. I wouldn't see the harm in bringing him up as the backup catcher if the return was really good for Vazquez. Guys that should go include Workman, JBJ, JD, Vazquez, Barnes, Moreland and Pillar. Get what you can for them and give others a shot and reload in the offseason. Vazquez is two years running of being about an .800 OPS catcher who is great behind the plate. He is 29 though. I'm not sure if I would trade him if I'm trying to compete in 2021. Anyone can be moved for the right price though. Vazquez is the best, home developed catcher the Sox have had since gedman. Think about that. over 35y and he's one of the best in the league, cost controlled for 2+ seasons and still young at 29. How can one think of moving him unless the return is massive? Especially when there is literally nobody in the system, prospect, nor AAAA wise to take his place? See no real problems moving others mentioned, tho thing over this one for multiple reasons.
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Post by manfred on Aug 11, 2020 17:19:51 GMT -5
And yet Ellsbury, Victorino, and Nava combined for just under 15 bWAR. At the moment, our starting outfield is a combine 0.0 bWAR. I believe that would be a *checks calculator* 0.0 pace for a full season. I'd question bwar defensive totals, which gave both Victorino and Ellsbury career best. There is human error in those numbers and fangraphs doesn't agree on the D. Nevermind Victorino had a .677 OPS a month into the season, so let's not judge a group with such a small sample size. I agree. But it is also unfair to compare OPS with Ells and Victorino when they stole 70 + bases combined but were not big power hitters.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 11, 2020 17:37:08 GMT -5
That 2013 team is a good example of how you never know how a team might come together and be successful. No one on the team had better than 4.9 fWAR. The top 5 starters combined for 11.2 WAR. Lester had the most at 3.3. Only Buchholz (in 16 starts) had a sub-3.50 ERA. Does a rotation of Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, Doubront, and Dempster really seem that much better than what we could reasonably hope to get next year? On the other hand, it's remarkable how almost everyone on that team was at least pretty good, just an extremely balanced roster - something you couldn't even say of the 2018 team, which had a few glaring holes. Can Bloom be good/lucky enough to put together a roster like that? I'd like to find out... And yet Ellsbury, Victorino, and Nava combined for just under 15 bWAR. At the moment, our starting outfield is a combine 0.0 bWAR. I believe that would be a *checks calculator* 0.0 pace for a full season. Well that's kind of the point. Sometimes guys overperform and you get contributions out of nowhere. Maybe Dalbec or Houck will be 2021's Nava; Maybe Verdugo will have a 6 WAR season; Maybe Martin Perez settles in as an above-average starter. Life is unpredictable and mysteries abound.
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Post by manfred on Aug 11, 2020 17:44:23 GMT -5
And yet Ellsbury, Victorino, and Nava combined for just under 15 bWAR. At the moment, our starting outfield is a combine 0.0 bWAR. I believe that would be a *checks calculator* 0.0 pace for a full season. Well that's kind of the point. Sometimes guys overperform and you get contributions out of nowhere. Maybe Dalbec or Houck will be 2021's Nava; Maybe Verdugo will have a 6 WAR season; Maybe Martin Perez settles in as an above-average starter. Life is unpredictable and mysteries abound. Wait... the point before was that Verdugo had a higher OPS than their average. Now it is that sometimes guys overperform? If the argument is miracles happen, well, we’ve seen it. But it is not a team-building philosophy that secures jobs. Oh... and having a Nav or an above average Perez doesn’t make the difference. And I seriously doubt a 6 WAR season from Verdugo.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Aug 11, 2020 18:00:32 GMT -5
Well that's kind of the point. Sometimes guys overperform and you get contributions out of nowhere. Maybe Dalbec or Houck will be 2021's Nava; Maybe Verdugo will have a 6 WAR season; Maybe Martin Perez settles in as an above-average starter. Life is unpredictable and mysteries abound. Wait... the point before was that Verdugo had a higher OPS than their average. Now it is that sometimes guys overperform? If the argument is miracles happen, well, we’ve seen it. But it is not a team-building philosophy that secures jobs. Oh... and having a Nav or an above average Perez doesn’t make the difference. And I seriously doubt a 6 WAR season from Verdugo. Where we disagree is that many of us don't think it would take a miracle for the lineup to be good next year. An outfield with Benintendi, Verdugo and TBD is probably not going to put up a zero WAR season. As bad as Benny has been over the past three weeks, he has a track record of being at least average. Verdugo has been better than average since he first came up. You keep saying that a team that relies on those guys is in bad shape, but there's just not a very good statistical case for that claim. It's also not really fair to just zero in on the outfield as evidence that the team can't compete, because the best players on this team happen to play the infield. Bogaerts and Devers are a lot better than the guys on the 2013 squad.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 11, 2020 18:08:09 GMT -5
Well that's kind of the point. Sometimes guys overperform and you get contributions out of nowhere. Maybe Dalbec or Houck will be 2021's Nava; Maybe Verdugo will have a 6 WAR season; Maybe Martin Perez settles in as an above-average starter. Life is unpredictable and mysteries abound. Wait... the point before was that Verdugo had a higher OPS than their average. Now it is that sometimes guys overperform? If the argument is miracles happen, well, we’ve seen it. But it is not a team-building philosophy that secures jobs. Oh... and having a Nav or an above average Perez doesn’t make the difference. And I seriously doubt a 6 WAR season from Verdugo. Okay, let's back up. The point I think umassgrad was making was that Verdugo ain't so bad, and believe it or not, some teams win the World Series even without Mookie Betts on their roster. Then I was citing that 2013 roster to return to my point that it would be bonkers to tear down the Red Sox 2021-22 teams on the grounds that they have no chance at winning in the next two years. If the 2013 Red Sox could do it, then the 2021 Red Sox have a shot, just based on the talent the team currently has, provided Bloom can make some good additions. Then you pointed out that the team's outfielders have not performed well, collectively, in 16 games this season. And I'm not exactly sure what your point was there, but you compared them to the outfielders from 2013, which included a career year from Nava, so I responded by saying, yeah, sometimes you get surprising performances out of guys, and maybe that'll happen for the 2021 Sox - just like it did in 2013. The argument isn't that miracles happen. Like, the Tigers aren't winning the World Series in 2021. The argument is that the Red Sox don't need a miracle to be good next season. They probably need a little bit of luck, and some skill in the GM's office. But it's not a stretch to see this as a competitive team in 2021-22. And it would be a real bummer if they tossed in the towel before even making an effort. ADD: Or just read fenwaydouble's comment, they said it more succinctly.
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Post by manfred on Aug 11, 2020 18:15:20 GMT -5
Wait... the point before was that Verdugo had a higher OPS than their average. Now it is that sometimes guys overperform? If the argument is miracles happen, well, we’ve seen it. But it is not a team-building philosophy that secures jobs. Oh... and having a Nav or an above average Perez doesn’t make the difference. And I seriously doubt a 6 WAR season from Verdugo. Where we disagree is that many of us don't think it would take a miracle for the lineup to be good next year. An outfield with Benintendi, Verdugo and TBD is probably not going to put up a zero WAR season. As bad as Benny has been over the past three weeks, he has a track record of being at least average. Verdugo has been better than average since he first came up. You keep saying that a team that relies on those guys is in bad shape, but there's just not a very good statistical case for that claim. It's also not really fair to just zero in on the outfield as evidence that the team can't compete, because the best players on this team happen to play the infield. Bogaerts and Devers are a lot better than the guys on the 2013 squad. Outfield 2B 1B Starting Pitching Relief Pitching I didn’t zero in. The posts took a specific turn. Of course I don’t think the OF will be 0.0 WAR. But I am not convinced that Benny (are we not getting seriously concerned?) and Verdugo combine for much more than 5ish. So who mans center, and what does he add? I actually think the OF is a problem specifically when taken in the larger context. As I’ve said before, 2B is a disaster, and 1B is not bad with Moreland but limited (and can’t go on much longer — he is aging). It puts huge pressure on the 4 most reliable bats to have 5, call them below-to-slightly above average bats (depending on who we mean). So I guess my point is this is not a lineup that is going to bludgeon opposing teams. That would be ok if the pitching were better. But it is not. In conclusion: the outfield could be ok if, say, they got a great 1B, and you have X, Devers, JDM, Stud 1B, CVaz, Verdugo, buried Benny, buried Pillar. Or if they had one stud outfielder in the mix. Or if they filled in their rotation in a way that kept scores more reasonable. But when you have multiple overlapping weaknesses, it is a bad situation.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 11, 2020 18:23:07 GMT -5
I'd question bwar defensive totals, which gave both Victorino and Ellsbury career best. There is human error in those numbers and fangraphs doesn't agree on the D. Nevermind Victorino had a .677 OPS a month into the season, so let's not judge a group with such a small sample size. I agree. But it is also unfair to compare OPS with Ells and Victorino when they stole 70 + bases combined but were not big power hitters. Those steals are in their offensive bwar totals. Let's remember Verdugo is 24 years old, most likely we haven't seen his best yet.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 11, 2020 18:27:14 GMT -5
Well that's kind of the point. Sometimes guys overperform and you get contributions out of nowhere. Maybe Dalbec or Houck will be 2021's Nava; Maybe Verdugo will have a 6 WAR season; Maybe Martin Perez settles in as an above-average starter. Life is unpredictable and mysteries abound. Wait... the point before was that Verdugo had a higher OPS than their average. Now it is that sometimes guys overperform? If the argument is miracles happen, well, we’ve seen it. But it is not a team-building philosophy that secures jobs. Oh... and having a Nav or an above average Perez doesn’t make the difference. And I seriously doubt a 6 WAR season from Verdugo. The point was Verdugo looks like he could be your top guy at some point, he's only 24. At age 23 if you pro-rated his PAs to 650, a full season the guy was on a 6 bwar pace. I won't ever project that to happen, yet it's not even close to crazy either.
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Post by manfred on Aug 11, 2020 18:30:41 GMT -5
Wait... the point before was that Verdugo had a higher OPS than their average. Now it is that sometimes guys overperform? If the argument is miracles happen, well, we’ve seen it. But it is not a team-building philosophy that secures jobs. Oh... and having a Nav or an above average Perez doesn’t make the difference. And I seriously doubt a 6 WAR season from Verdugo. Okay, let's back up. The point I think umassgrad was making was that Verdugo ain't so bad, and believe it or not, some teams win the World Series even without Mookie Betts on their roster. Then I was citing that 2013 roster to return to my point that it would be bonkers to tear down the Red Sox 2021-22 teams on the grounds that they have no chance at winning in the next two years. If the 2013 Red Sox could do it, then the 2021 Red Sox have a shot, just based on the talent the team currently has, provided Bloom can make some good additions. Then you pointed out that the team's outfielders have not performed well, collectively, in 16 games this season. And I'm not exactly sure what your point was there, but you compared them to the outfielders from 2013, which included a career year from Nava, so I responded by saying, yeah, sometimes you get surprising performances out of guys, and maybe that'll happen for the 2021 Sox - just like it did in 2013. The argument isn't that miracles happen. Like, the Tigers aren't winning the World Series in 2021. The argument is that the Red Sox don't need a miracle to be good next season. They probably need a little bit of luck, and some skill in the GM's office. But it's not a stretch to see this as a competitive team in 2021-22. And it would be a real bummer if they tossed in the towel before even making an effort. ADD: Or just read fenwaydouble's comment, they said it more succinctly. It is hard to respond to so many different arguments, and the problem is that when I do, I am then asked why I mention something. I never mentioned 2013 until it was used as a comp, to which I responded that it was not a good comp. That outfield was better not only in 2013 but throughout their careers. Ellsbury had finished 2nd in MVP only two years earlier and was an elite player at that point in his career. Victorino was also a well above average guy. Gones and Nava were nice third pieces. Bradley is not close to Ells or Victorino; maybe Benny or Verdugo will be. That would be great. The point is... that outfield was not some surprise. People expected them to be good. But I didn’t make the initial comparison. I’d be more apt to compare this OF to 2014. Anyway, the 2013 comp is useless, because these teams are so dissimilar. That team had a much worse infield, a much better outfield, a great bullpen, and a very different composition to its starting staff. One thing I would agree on: if they could get a Koji, a Lester, and a Lackey, and maybe a Victorino, there’d be no reason to tear the team down. How you do that without big trades, you got me.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 11, 2020 18:39:33 GMT -5
Ellsbury sucked in 2012 though, kinda a perfect example with Benny how things can change quickly with players.
Ellsbury was .9, Victorino 2.9 and Nava 1.6 in 2012, that doesn't scream 15 bwar in 2013.
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Post by manfred on Aug 11, 2020 18:47:07 GMT -5
Ellsbury sucked in 2012 though, kinda a perfect example with Benny how things can change quickly with players. C’mon. Lets be real. Ells was hurt that year. I like Benny. I think Benny can still be a good player. Benny will not be Ellsbury. And that’s ok. But let’s not say that because Ellsbury was hurt and then had a good year anything can happen with a guy who is, as of now, probably the worst player in baseball this season. Benny probably doesn’t have enough at bats left this year to have stats like Els had in his 70ish games in 2012.
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Post by station13 on Aug 11, 2020 18:47:26 GMT -5
They should collect that ball for Benny.
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Post by manfred on Aug 11, 2020 18:54:47 GMT -5
I got here late... how is there already a pitching change?
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