SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Let’s Go Shopping - 2020-21 FAs
|
Post by benzinger on Mar 4, 2021 16:08:48 GMT -5
Nobody is holding you hostage, friend. Thanks for taking my quote out of context, Hoss.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Mar 4, 2021 16:10:14 GMT -5
This is an absurd take - JBJ is certainly better than a “sub league average” player. Far from it. Actually, his career OPS+ of 94 is the literal definition of him being sub-replacement level. Your apology is accepted. So, again, like, there's this whole other job baseball players have besides hitting...
Personally I would called JBJ about average at this stage in his career. But it's odd that you keep forgetting that defense exists. And it's especially rich for you to have such an arrogant tone about it ("your apology is accepted") when you reveal such a blind spot in your own comments.
(Also 94 is not sub-replacement, it's just slightly below average, but I take it that was just a typo.)
|
|
|
Post by fenwaydouble on Mar 4, 2021 16:10:23 GMT -5
This is an absurd take - JBJ is certainly better than a “sub league average” player. Far from it. Actually, his career OPS+ of 94 is the literal definition of him being sub-replacement level. Your apology is accepted. 1. An OPS+ below 100 means below average, but that's not the same thing as below replacement level. 2. Obviously his glove has been well above average at a premium position, which makes him at least an average player overall.
I won't speak for JimmyM, so he'll have to let you know if he accepts your apology.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,314
|
Post by cdj on Mar 4, 2021 16:11:34 GMT -5
Nobody is holding you hostage, friend. Thanks for taking my quote out of context, Hoss. Oh look it’s you being ornery after being called out for completely devaluing gold glove defense at a premium position again
|
|
|
Post by Jimmy on Mar 4, 2021 16:13:39 GMT -5
This is an absurd take - JBJ is certainly better than a “sub league average” player. Far from it. Actually, his career OPS+ of 94 is the literal definition of him being sub-replacement level. Your apology is accepted. I guess I forgot that JBJ was the Red Sox DH? He’s basically a 3 WAR player on average over last 6 seasons.
|
|
|
Post by chrisfromnc on Mar 4, 2021 16:13:50 GMT -5
This is ten minutes of JBJ being spectacular. Ten minutes. Not slow motion, not the same highlight shown three times from different angles. It’s just him chasing down balls and using that cannon arm to make outs that most players can’t make.
I’m thrilled he got a decent contract. I’m thrilled he played CF for my favorite team.
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Mar 4, 2021 16:18:45 GMT -5
Actually, his career OPS+ of 94 is the literal definition of him being sub-replacement level. Your apology is accepted. So, again, like, there's this whole other job baseball players have besides hitting...
Personally I would called JBJ about average at this stage in his career. But it's odd that you keep forgetting that defense exists. And it's especially rich for you to have such an arrogant tone about it ("your apology is accepted") when you reveal such a blind spot in your own comments.
(Also 94 is not sub-replacement, it's just slightly below average, but I take it that was just a typo.)
I already said he was great defensively. But I also think he’s easily replaced because his bat was so inconsistent.
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Mar 4, 2021 16:19:46 GMT -5
Actually, his career OPS+ of 94 is the literal definition of him being sub-replacement level. Your apology is accepted. 1. An OPS+ below 100 means below average, but that's not the same thing as below replacement level. 2. Obviously his glove has been well above average at a premium position, which makes him at least an average player overall.
I won't speak for JimmyM, so he'll have to let you know if he accepts your apology.
Great. So we all agree that JBJ was below average. What’s the next topic?
|
|
|
Post by Jimmy on Mar 4, 2021 16:28:17 GMT -5
1. An OPS+ below 100 means below average, but that's not the same thing as below replacement level. 2. Obviously his glove has been well above average at a premium position, which makes him at least an average player overall.
I won't speak for JimmyM, so he'll have to let you know if he accepts your apology.
Great. So we all agree that JBJ was below average. What’s the next topic? You should call up the Brewers and remind them the pitcher still hits in the NL. $12M annually is a terrible waste for a below average DH, especially in a league that doesn’t utilize one.
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Mar 4, 2021 16:28:55 GMT -5
Actually, his career OPS+ of 94 is the literal definition of him being sub-replacement level. Your apology is accepted. I guess I forgot that JBJ was the Red Sox DH? He’s basically a 3 WAR player on average over last 6 seasons. He only went over 3 WAR in 2 of those 6 years, though. He had the one monster year in 2016. That skews his whole resume. THAT guy was an all-star. We haven’t seen THAT guy since.
|
|
|
Post by Jimmy on Mar 4, 2021 16:32:00 GMT -5
I guess I forgot that JBJ was the Red Sox DH? He’s basically a 3 WAR player on average over last 6 seasons. He only went over 3 WAR in 2 of those 6 years, though. He had the one monster year in 2016. That skews his whole resume. THAT guy was an all-star. We haven’t seen THAT guy since. 2015 - 2020, excluding 2016, JBJ has a WAR / 150 of 3.2
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Mar 4, 2021 16:42:33 GMT -5
He only went over 3 WAR in 2 of those 6 years, though. He had the one monster year in 2016. That skews his whole resume. THAT guy was an all-star. We haven’t seen THAT guy since. 2015 - 2020, excluding 2016, JBJ has a WAR / 150 of 3.2 I show the following for WAR by year: 2014-0.7 2015-2.0 2016-5.8 2017-3.5 2018-2.2 2019-1.9 2020-2.1
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 4, 2021 16:43:51 GMT -5
I guess I don't get what the argument is about.
JBJ was a below average hitter who was a spectacular fielder. His bat is easily replaceable, but his glove is not.
I would guess that he saved runs that other CFs allowed which made up for his deficiencies with the bat. I would say overall he was an average to slightly above average regular.
Factor in he wasn't making a ton of money given what other players make and he was a bargain. Now with him making $12 million that's no longer really the case and he's passed his age 30 season, I would say it's the right time to cut the chord and move onto the future.
By time the Sox have a team projected to win between 90 - 95 games JBJ wouldn't have been the CF of that team, so it's fine that he's gone and that the Sox are moving on.
I will miss his defense. Between him and Betts, nothing got down in the right side of the outfield. They saved the pitching staff a lot of runs. That's what will be noticeable this year, how many shots plug the gap or just get missed that would have been caught in the past.
Hopefully Duran forces the issue and gives us reminders of Ellsbury (the 2011 version would be nice, although the speed demon version was cool, too) at some point.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,991
|
Post by jimoh on Mar 4, 2021 16:44:10 GMT -5
Actually, his career OPS+ of 94 is the literal definition of him being sub-replacement level. Your apology is accepted. So, again, like, there's this whole other job baseball players have besides hitting...
Personally I would called JBJ about average at this stage in his career. But it's odd that you keep forgetting that defense exists. And it's especially rich for you to have such an arrogant tone about it ("your apology is accepted") when you reveal such a blind spot in your own comments.
(Also 94 is not sub-replacement, it's just slightly below average, but I take it that was just a typo.)
Besides the weirdness of leaving out defense, Benzinger's citing his career OPS+ of 94 includes his first two years, when his OPS+ averages 53. 53! His OPS+ for the next six years is 101. When you sign a 30YO free agent, nobody cares what he did when he was 23.
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Mar 4, 2021 16:48:31 GMT -5
So, again, like, there's this whole other job baseball players have besides hitting...
Personally I would called JBJ about average at this stage in his career. But it's odd that you keep forgetting that defense exists. And it's especially rich for you to have such an arrogant tone about it ("your apology is accepted") when you reveal such a blind spot in your own comments.
(Also 94 is not sub-replacement, it's just slightly below average, but I take it that was just a typo.)
Besides the weirdness of leaving out defense, Benzinger's citing his career OPS+ of 94 includes his first two years, when his OPS+ averages 53. 53! His OPS+ for the next six years is 101. When you sign a 30YO free agent, nobody cares what he did when he was 23. “If you don’t count all his bad seasons, he was really good!”
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Mar 4, 2021 16:49:38 GMT -5
2015 - 2020, excluding 2016, JBJ has a WAR / 150 of 3.2 I show the following for WAR by year: 2014-0.7 2015-2.0 2016-5.8 2017-3.5 2018-2.2 2019-1.9 2020-2.1 That... equals 3.2/150.
So people are saying he is not below average. Then you are saying he is below average. Then people are saying: but you aren't counting defense. Then you are saying: he's great defensively but he's below average.
There have been three cycles of this now. Do you see the problem? Are you trying to argue that WAR is wrong and he is actually below average despite the great defense? Or are you just saying defense shouldn't count in evaluating a player's ability? Which is it?
ADD: Maybe you just meant he's a below-average hitter, and you're too prideful to clarify what you meant?
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Mar 4, 2021 16:55:57 GMT -5
I show the following for WAR by year: 2014-0.7 2015-2.0 2016-5.8 2017-3.5 2018-2.2 2019-1.9 2020-2.1 That... equals 3.2/150.
So people are saying he is not below average. Then you are saying he is below average. Then people are saying: but you aren't counting defense. Then you are saying: he's great defensively but he's below average.
There have been three cycles of this now. Do you see the problem? Are you trying to argue that WAR is wrong and he is actually below average despite the great defense? Or are you just saying defense shouldn't count in evaluating a player's ability? Which is it?
I’ve never been a huge fan of WAR, in general. OPS+ says he’s below average with the bat(and we’ve all seen enough to know that’s true). The question here is does his defense(which is great) offset the bat enough to make him above average? I say no. You disagree. That’s fine. I think a guy who’s on the fringe of “average” overall is easily replaced.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Mar 4, 2021 17:01:52 GMT -5
That... equals 3.2/150.
So people are saying he is not below average. Then you are saying he is below average. Then people are saying: but you aren't counting defense. Then you are saying: he's great defensively but he's below average.
There have been three cycles of this now. Do you see the problem? Are you trying to argue that WAR is wrong and he is actually below average despite the great defense? Or are you just saying defense shouldn't count in evaluating a player's ability? Which is it?
I’ve never been a huge fan of WAR, in general. OPS+ says he’s below average with the bat(and we’ve all seen enough to know that’s true). The question here is does his defense(which is great) offset the bat enough to make him above average? I say no. You disagree. That’s fine. I think a guy who’s on the fringe of “average” overall is easily replaced. There it is! Jeez, that was like pulling teeth. And in the future, you could be less arrogant while mis-using stats to make your argument. One or the other is whatever, but combining the two kind of rankles.
Anyway, the projections have him as like a 1.5 WAR player going forward, and it's not crazy to project him as a below average player. He's past 30 after all. But it's a little crazy, I think, to say he has been below average for the last 5 seasons or whatever.
I'm curious to see how his defense ages. I actually think it's come to be a liiiitle overrated, though it's still generally great; it actually seeemed kind of pedestrian in 2019, though I thought he bounced back some last season.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 4, 2021 17:03:18 GMT -5
He only went over 3 WAR in 2 of those 6 years, though. He had the one monster year in 2016. That skews his whole resume. THAT guy was an all-star. We haven’t seen THAT guy since. 2015 - 2020, excluding 2016, JBJ has a WAR / 150 of 3.2 You won't get Bradley from his peak years because of the shifts unless he learns how to adjust and he hasn't for years now. Go look at the shift totals and his his numbers tanked as they increased. I have a huge issue with your 150 game average, because it's greatly inflating 2015 and 2020 like if he just played more games it's a given he'd maintain his 119/118 OPS, yet he's only done that once in six years. The fact are only 2016 did he play over a 100 games and give you an OPS above league average. Your overvaluing his trademark hot streaks in limited games. Before last year, 89, 92, and 90 OPS from 2017 to 2019 while playing 133, 144, and 147 games. He is what he is, a great fielder with a below average bat. He spends 2/3 of the time killing your offense and 1/3 of the season looking like an all-star.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Mar 4, 2021 17:09:12 GMT -5
2015 - 2020, excluding 2016, JBJ has a WAR / 150 of 3.2 You won't get Bradley from his peak years because of the shifts unless he learns how to adjust and he hasn't for years now. Go look at the shift totals and his his numbers tanked as they increased. I have a huge issue with your 150 game average, because it's greatly inflating 2015 and 2020 like if he just played more games it's a given he'd maintain his 119/118 OPS, yet he's only done that once in six years. The fact are only 2016 did he play over a 100 games and give you an OPS above league average. Your overvaluing his trademark hot streaks in limited games. Before last year, 89, 92, and 90 OPS from 2017 to 2019 while playing 133, 144, and 147 games. He is what he is, a great fielder with a below average bat. He spends 2/3 of the time killing your offense and 1/3 of the season looking like an all-star. 3.2 is the average you get just by summing games played and dividing WAR into that so it doesn't overweight 2020.
If you wanted to just count 2017-2020 I think you get 2.5 fWAR/150, and about 3 bWAR/150.
Like I said in my comment above, it's not crazy to project him as below-average going forward, but unless you totally devalue defense (ahem) it's hard to argue he has been below average historically, even if you entirely accommodate your point about the shifts.
But then, this contract is basically paying him like a 1.5 WAR player, right? So nothing really seems out of line with the deal.
|
|
|
Post by Jimmy on Mar 4, 2021 17:17:35 GMT -5
Rather than replying to the last two times I was quoted in this thread and being redundant, I’ll concur with Incandenza’s last three posts - pretty much hit the nail on the head.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 4, 2021 17:31:16 GMT -5
You won't get Bradley from his peak years because of the shifts unless he learns how to adjust and he hasn't for years now. Go look at the shift totals and his his numbers tanked as they increased. I have a huge issue with your 150 game average, because it's greatly inflating 2015 and 2020 like if he just played more games it's a given he'd maintain his 119/118 OPS, yet he's only done that once in six years. The fact are only 2016 did he play over a 100 games and give you an OPS above league average. Your overvaluing his trademark hot streaks in limited games. Before last year, 89, 92, and 90 OPS from 2017 to 2019 while playing 133, 144, and 147 games. He is what he is, a great fielder with a below average bat. He spends 2/3 of the time killing your offense and 1/3 of the season looking like an all-star. 3.2 is the average you get just by summing games played and dividing WAR into that so it doesn't overweight 2020.
If you wanted to just count 2017-2020 I think you get 2.5 fWAR/150, and about 3 bWAR/150.
Like I said in my comment above, it's not crazy to project him as below-average going forward, but unless you totally devalue defense (ahem) it's hard to argue he has been below average historically, even if you entirely accommodate your point about the shifts.
But then, this contract is basically paying him like a 1.5 WAR player, right? So nothing really seems out of line with the deal.
No if you takeout 2016 like he said it's 2.34 per year, so he had to do what I said though I didn't check the math. Go look at what Hernandez got per bwar. It's not that D isn't valuable, it's teams pay for offense, not D. I also hate hitters as streaky as Bradley, it hurts a team in a way that bwar can't measure. It just looks at averages.
|
|
|
Post by Jimmy on Mar 4, 2021 17:36:02 GMT -5
3.2 is the average you get just by summing games played and dividing WAR into that so it doesn't overweight 2020.
If you wanted to just count 2017-2020 I think you get 2.5 fWAR/150, and about 3 bWAR/150.
Like I said in my comment above, it's not crazy to project him as below-average going forward, but unless you totally devalue defense (ahem) it's hard to argue he has been below average historically, even if you entirely accommodate your point about the shifts.
But then, this contract is basically paying him like a 1.5 WAR player, right? So nothing really seems out of line with the deal.
No if you takeout 2016 like he said it's 2.34 per year, so he had to do what I said though I didn't check the math. Go look at what Hernandez got per bwar. It's not that D isn't valuable, it's teams pay for offense, not D. I also hate hitters as streaky as Bradley, it hurts a team in a way that bwar can't measure. It just looks at averages. If you takeout 2016 WAR per 150 games is 3.2. If you keep 2016 in it’s even higher.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 4, 2021 17:45:37 GMT -5
No if you takeout 2016 like he said it's 2.34 per year, so he had to do what I said though I didn't check the math. Go look at what Hernandez got per bwar. It's not that D isn't valuable, it's teams pay for offense, not D. I also hate hitters as streaky as Bradley, it hurts a team in a way that bwar can't measure. It just looks at averages. If you takeout 2016 WAR per 150 games is 3.2. If you keep 2016 in it’s even higher. Which is my issue, your inflating the numbers of 2015 and 2020. Per 150 games can be useful for certain guys if they get injured. I hate that with Bradley, because his bat being bad is why he's only played 150 games once. He's a guy that if he played more, it likely hurts his bwar totals not helps them. Do you really believe if Bradley played a 150 games last year he'd be around a 6 bwar player?
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Mar 4, 2021 17:50:31 GMT -5
I can get wanting to take out 2016, but you're really cherry-picking to remove 2020 - it's the most recent season! I also think you're maybe confusing WAR/season with WAR/150? But I'll stop butting in to explain JimmyM's posts for him.
|
|
|