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Let’s Go Shopping - 2020-21 FAs
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Post by Jimmy on Mar 4, 2021 17:51:13 GMT -5
If you takeout 2016 WAR per 150 games is 3.2. If you keep 2016 in it’s even higher. Which is my issue, your inflating the numbers of 2015 and 2020. Per 150 games can be useful for certain guys if they get injured. I hate that with Bradley, because his bat being bad is why he's only played 150 games once. He's a guy that if he played more, it likely hurts his bwar totals not helps them. Do you really believe if Bradley played a 150 games last year he'd be around a 6 bwar player? How is this weighting 2015 and 2020 heavier? He played less games in these seasons, therefore they are weighted *lower*. Every game he played in over the period, regardless of which season, carries the same weight.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 4, 2021 18:05:50 GMT -5
Which is my issue, your inflating the numbers of 2015 and 2020. Per 150 games can be useful for certain guys if they get injured. I hate that with Bradley, because his bat being bad is why he's only played 150 games once. He's a guy that if he played more, it likely hurts his bwar totals not helps them. Do you really believe if Bradley played a 150 games last year he'd be around a 6 bwar player? How is this weighting 2015 and 2020 heavier? He played less games in these seasons, therefore they are weighted *lower*. Every game he played in over the period, regardless of which season, carries the same weight. His bwar per 150 in 2015 would be about 4 bwar and in 2020 it would be around 6 bwar. You don't see a problem with that?
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Post by ramireja on Mar 4, 2021 18:07:40 GMT -5
3.2 is the average you get just by summing games played and dividing WAR into that so it doesn't overweight 2020. If you wanted to just count 2017-2020 I think you get 2.5 fWAR/150, and about 3 bWAR/150. Like I said in my comment above, it's not crazy to project him as below-average going forward, but unless you totally devalue defense (ahem) it's hard to argue he has been below average historically, even if you entirely accommodate your point about the shifts. But then, this contract is basically paying him like a 1.5 WAR player, right? So nothing really seems out of line with the deal.
No if you takeout 2016 like he said it's 2.34 per year, so he had to do what I said though I didn't check the math. Go look at what Hernandez got per bwar. It's not that D isn't valuable, it's teams pay for offense, not D. I also hate hitters as streaky as Bradley, it hurts a team in a way that bwar can't measure. It just looks at averages.I don't agree with this part. Would that mean his hot streaks help a team in way that bwar can't measure? I can't think of a valid reason why cold streaks would hurt a team more than hot streaks would help a team, and therefore those streaks would just average out to being....average.
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Post by blizzards39 on Mar 4, 2021 18:23:02 GMT -5
The Santana signing is interesting. He fits what the Red Sox are doing and he's a switch-hitter who has played the most in CF and SS and has handled all other positions other than catcher and pitcher. So looking at the lineup: C: Vazquez 1B: Dalbec 2b: Gonzalez SS: Bogaerts 3B: Devers LF: Cordero CF: Hernandez RF: Verdugo DH: Martinez 3 man bench: C: Plawecki OF: Renfroe (or he starts in RF, Kiké goes to 2b, Verdugo goes to CF, and Gonzalez is the bench guy) UT: Arroyo But I think Santana could make it a four man bench or be the first guy up, ahead of Munoz perhaps, if there's an injury? At some point, I'd think the Sox have to revert to 13 pitchers instead of 14, especially if Duran forces his way up. KIKI is the 2B. Everyday.
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Post by jackiebradleyjrjr on Mar 4, 2021 18:23:14 GMT -5
For the record: I’m not changing my screen name. 😬
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Post by Jimmy on Mar 4, 2021 18:25:04 GMT -5
How is this weighting 2015 and 2020 heavier? He played less games in these seasons, therefore they are weighted *lower*. Every game he played in over the period, regardless of which season, carries the same weight. His bwar per 150 in 2015 would be about 4 bwar and in 2020 it would be around 6 bwar. You don't see a problem with that? I didn’t take the WAR/150 for each season, add them up, and divide by the number of seasons, which is what I think you are implying. I took the total games played over the specified period (excluding 2016 of course, for whatever reason) and divided by 150 to get X. I then took the total WAR (excluding 2016) over the specified time period. I then divided the total WAR over period by X. So in the 3.2 WAR/150 from 2015-2020, excluding 2016, the average was not boosted by giving SSS’s a larger weight than they *should* hold.
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Post by manfred on Mar 4, 2021 18:32:48 GMT -5
How is this weighting 2015 and 2020 heavier? He played less games in these seasons, therefore they are weighted *lower*. Every game he played in over the period, regardless of which season, carries the same weight. His bwar per 150 in 2015 would be about 4 bwar and in 2020 it would be around 6 bwar. You don't see a problem with that? I don’t know how’d he’d finish last year, but if he was close to 6 bWAR in 2016, why is it so crazy that he might have done it again last year? I actually think it is totally possible he’d finish last year ~5.5 bWAR.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 4, 2021 18:42:19 GMT -5
No if you takeout 2016 like he said it's 2.34 per year, so he had to do what I said though I didn't check the math. Go look at what Hernandez got per bwar. It's not that D isn't valuable, it's teams pay for offense, not D. I also hate hitters as streaky as Bradley, it hurts a team in a way that bwar can't measure. It just looks at averages.I don't agree with this part. Would that mean his hot streaks help a team in way that bwar can't measure? I can't think of a valid reason why cold streaks would hurt a team more than hot streaks would help a team, and therefore those streaks would just average out to being....average. If they were equal they likely wouldn't, yet Bradley's have never been equal. Closer to 2/3 cold to 1/3 hot, thus he's hurting your offense in more games than he's helping you. Bradley's like a pitcher with ten damn awesome starts and 20 that look like the pitchers we used last year. The ERA might end up decent, that doesn't mean he didn't hurt you in more games than he helped you. I'm talking offense here, I know the next thing will be he plays D. When he's bad even with that D, he's a negative.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 4, 2021 18:45:18 GMT -5
His bwar per 150 in 2015 would be about 4 bwar and in 2020 it would be around 6 bwar. You don't see a problem with that? I didn’t take the WAR/150 for each season, add them up, and divide by the number of seasons, which is what I think you are implying. I took the total games played over the specified period (excluding 2016 of course, for whatever reason) and divided by 150 to get X. I then took the total WAR (excluding 2016) over the specified time period. I then divided the total WAR over period by X. So in the 3.2 WAR/150 from 2015-2020, excluding 2016, the average was not boosted by giving SSS’s a larger weight than they *should* hold. It has the same effect, it's how you're going from 2.3 bwar actual to 3.2. Bradley playing more games when he's cold isn't going to increase his bwar, it's going to decrease it.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 4, 2021 18:46:19 GMT -5
If he's been a 3 WAR/150 player in recent seasons, then it's reasonable to speculate that with an extra 100 games he'd have added 2 WAR, and ended up with a ~4 WAR season total, no?
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Post by Jimmy on Mar 4, 2021 18:47:44 GMT -5
I didn’t take the WAR/150 for each season, add them up, and divide by the number of seasons, which is what I think you are implying. I took the total games played over the specified period (excluding 2016 of course, for whatever reason) and divided by 150 to get X. I then took the total WAR (excluding 2016) over the specified time period. I then divided the total WAR over period by X. So in the 3.2 WAR/150 from 2015-2020, excluding 2016, the average was not boosted by giving SSS’s a larger weight than they *should* hold. It has the same effect, it's how you're going from 2.3 bwar actual to 3.2. Bradley playing more games when he's cold isn't going to increase his bwar, it's going to decrease it. It does not have the same effect, if I did it that way his bWAR would be significantly higher.
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Post by manfred on Mar 4, 2021 18:48:03 GMT -5
I love the predictable “good riddance” discussion when one of our guys goes. I’ve said it before: if there are guys who don’t want to resign, why are we surprised?
Add: and I get letting JBJ go. I thank him, will miss him, and wish him well.
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Post by stevedillard on Mar 4, 2021 18:53:21 GMT -5
I love the predictable “good riddance” discussion when one of our guys goes. I’ve said it before: if there are guys who don’t want to resign, why are we surprised? Add: and I get letting JBJ go. I thank him, will miss him, and wish him well. Well, there are worse insults than "I won't give you $24 million"
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 4, 2021 19:02:23 GMT -5
His bwar per 150 in 2015 would be about 4 bwar and in 2020 it would be around 6 bwar. You don't see a problem with that? I don’t know how’d he’d finish last year, but if he was close to 6 bWAR in 2016, why is it so crazy that he might have done it again last year? I actually think it is totally possible he’d finish last year ~5.5 bWAR. Because of the shifts and how they hurt him. Back 2016 teams only used shifts on him 30% of the time, last two years 68 and 62%. His wOBA with the shifts is .302 in 2019 and .308 in 2020. His wOBA without shifts in 2016 was .346 second highest of his career, after 2018 at .376. Last year it was .424. So you'd have to believe that he can maintain something he's never came close to before in about 40% of his ABs. It just screams typical Bradley hot streak. Nothing in the statcast data screams he's a new hitter, it actually shows he just got lucky. .352 wOBA versus .305 xwOBA
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Post by manfred on Mar 4, 2021 19:02:43 GMT -5
I love the predictable “good riddance” discussion when one of our guys goes. I’ve said it before: if there are guys who don’t want to resign, why are we surprised? Add: and I get letting JBJ go. I thank him, will miss him, and wish him well. Well, there are worse insults than "I won't give you $24 million" True... but I mostly referring to the “he was never that good anyway” thing, which I feel like follows a lot of exits.
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Post by ramireja on Mar 4, 2021 19:06:43 GMT -5
I don't agree with this part. Would that mean his hot streaks help a team in way that bwar can't measure? I can't think of a valid reason why cold streaks would hurt a team more than hot streaks would help a team, and therefore those streaks would just average out to being....average. If they were equal they likely wouldn't, yet Bradley's have never been equal. Closer to 2/3 cold to 1/3 hot, thus he's hurting your offense in more games than he's helping you. Bradley's like a pitcher with ten damn awesome starts and 20 that look like the pitchers we used last year. The ERA might end up decent, that doesn't mean he didn't hurt you in more games than he helped you. I'm talking offense here, I know the next thing will be he plays D. When he's bad even with that D, he's a negative. I still don't agree with this nor the premise that there is some 2/3 to 1/3 ratio to his streakiness. Isn't the best way to evaluate the balance of his hot and cold streaks to simply look at his overall numbers? If averaging across all of his streaks, he has a 100 wRC+, then that's what he is. You'd need to show me empirical evidence why a player who goes 1 for 4 every single day is more valuable than a guy who has a pattern of going 0-4 for two days and then 3-4 on the third day.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 4, 2021 19:26:57 GMT -5
Once again for the record, at 140 games/season - about what he would typically play - Bradley was worth somewhere between $20M and $25M. Some of you may not feel that's good enough and that's ok. But that's what he brought to the team, and that's likely what he'll bring to the Brewers also. Good for them and good for him.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 4, 2021 19:29:23 GMT -5
It has the same effect, it's how you're going from 2.3 bwar actual to 3.2. Bradley playing more games when he's cold isn't going to increase his bwar, it's going to decrease it. It does not have the same effect, if I did it that way his bWAR would be significantly higher. Does it not inflate his totals? Sure it's not as much, yet it's not that far off either. Your adding about 5 b war over five years. You are doing that with a player who doesn't play 150 games because his bat is so bad, not because of injuries. I'd argue given all the information we have, you should be decreasing his numbers per 150. He's more like Hernandez, his value would go down with more playing time not up.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 4, 2021 19:43:47 GMT -5
If they were equal they likely wouldn't, yet Bradley's have never been equal. Closer to 2/3 cold to 1/3 hot, thus he's hurting your offense in more games than he's helping you. Bradley's like a pitcher with ten damn awesome starts and 20 that look like the pitchers we used last year. The ERA might end up decent, that doesn't mean he didn't hurt you in more games than he helped you. I'm talking offense here, I know the next thing will be he plays D. When he's bad even with that D, he's a negative. I still don't agree with this nor the premise that there is some 2/3 to 1/3 ratio to his streakiness. Isn't the best way to evaluate the balance of his hot and cold streaks to simply look at his overall numbers? If averaging across all of his streaks, he has a 100 wRC+, then that's what he is. You'd need to show me empirical evidence why a player who goes 1 for 4 every single day is more valuable than a guy who has a pattern of going 0-4 for two days and then 3-4 on the third day. If that was Bradley I'd agree with you, that's like a typical hitter. Bradley is much more extreme than that, it's not two games bad, one game good. It's like two months bad one month good. As for evidence there isn't any yet, that's next age advanced stats right there. You'd have to measure his hot streak versus his cold streaks and the positive versus negative value. If I was a manager I would prefer the more consistent hitter all day long. I would prefer a player helping me produce runs in more games.
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Post by ramireja on Mar 4, 2021 19:50:45 GMT -5
I still don't agree with this nor the premise that there is some 2/3 to 1/3 ratio to his streakiness. Isn't the best way to evaluate the balance of his hot and cold streaks to simply look at his overall numbers? If averaging across all of his streaks, he has a 100 wRC+, then that's what he is. You'd need to show me empirical evidence why a player who goes 1 for 4 every single day is more valuable than a guy who has a pattern of going 0-4 for two days and then 3-4 on the third day. If that was Bradley I'd agree with you, that's like a typical hitter. Bradley is much more extreme than that, it's not two games bad, one game good. It's like two months bad one month good. As for evidence there isn't any yet, that's next age advanced stats right there. You'd have to measure his hot streak versus his cold streaks and the positive versus negative value. If I was a manager I would prefer the more consistent hitter all day long. I would prefer a player helping me produce runs in more games. Your preference though doesn't equate to value (i.e., whether or not his streakiness makes him any less or more valuable than his overall average implies). We can agree to disagree though. I'll maintain my belief that his overall line is a fine indicator of his offensive performance and that it doesn't really matter how the hot and cold games are distributed to get to that average.
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Post by soxaddict on Mar 4, 2021 20:14:56 GMT -5
Once again for the record, at 140 games/season - about what he would typically play - Bradley was worth somewhere between $20M and $25M. Some of you may not feel that's good enough and that's ok. But that's what he brought to the team, and that's likely what he'll bring to the Brewers also. Good for them and good for him. Exactly. I'm really going to miss JBJ.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,888
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Post by nomar on Mar 4, 2021 20:16:38 GMT -5
I don’t think JBJ will age well and I’m ready to move on, but it was fun to watch him grow from college til now.
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Post by Jimmy on Mar 4, 2021 20:30:43 GMT -5
It does not have the same effect, if I did it that way his bWAR would be significantly higher. Does it not inflate his totals? Sure it's not as much, yet it's not that far off either. Your adding about 5 b war over five years. You are doing that with a player who doesn't play 150 games because his bat is so bad, not because of injuries. I'd argue given all the information we have, you should be decreasing his numbers per 150. He's more like Hernandez, his value would go down with more playing time not up. I completely disagree with this but I’m sick of explaining it so I digress. Let’s really cherry pick now, shall we? In seasons where he played a minimum of 133 games AND excluding his 2016 season: 3 Seasons, 2017 - 2019. Average of 2.6 WAR (didn’t use WAR/150 since people think I’m using it to boost his value somehow). So I’ve cherry picked out his best season (2016) and two seasons where he put up 2+ WAR in under 100 games. And he’s STILL a 2.6 WAR guy. If anyone remembers this argument started over someone calling JBJ a sub league average player. Considering he has 2.6 WAR per season (not per 150) after all that cherry picking you’d have to consider that disproven, no?
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Post by Gwell55 on Mar 4, 2021 20:43:38 GMT -5
Does it not inflate his totals? Sure it's not as much, yet it's not that far off either. Your adding about 5 b war over five years. You are doing that with a player who doesn't play 150 games because his bat is so bad, not because of injuries. I'd argue given all the information we have, you should be decreasing his numbers per 150. He's more like Hernandez, his value would go down with more playing time not up. I completely disagree with this but I’m sick of explaining it so I digress. Let’s really cherry pick now, shall we? In seasons where he played a minimum of 133 games AND excluding his 2016 season: 3 Seasons, 2017 - 2019. Average of 2.6 WAR (didn’t use WAR/150 since people think I’m using it to boost his value somehow). So I’ve cherry picked out his best season (2016) and two seasons where he put up 2+ WAR in under 100 games. And he’s STILL a 2.6 WAR guy. If anyone remembers this argument started over someone calling JBJ a sub league average player. Considering he has 2.6 WAR per season (not per 150) after all that cherry picking you’d have to consider that disproven, no? For argument sake how about since being 26 yr old his WAR has fell down every year to the 29 yr old's actual full season of 1.9 WAR with a part season total with hot streak included of 2.1 WAR at 30 yr old. Seems it will decline from there in the future maybe? How about leaving it at that!
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Post by Jimmy on Mar 4, 2021 20:46:47 GMT -5
I completely disagree with this but I’m sick of explaining it so I digress. Let’s really cherry pick now, shall we? In seasons where he played a minimum of 133 games AND excluding his 2016 season: 3 Seasons, 2017 - 2019. Average of 2.6 WAR (didn’t use WAR/150 since people think I’m using it to boost his value somehow). So I’ve cherry picked out his best season (2016) and two seasons where he put up 2+ WAR in under 100 games. And he’s STILL a 2.6 WAR guy. If anyone remembers this argument started over someone calling JBJ a sub league average player. Considering he has 2.6 WAR per season (not per 150) after all that cherry picking you’d have to consider that disproven, no? For argument sake how about since being 26 yr old his WAR has fell down every year to the 29 yr old's actual full season of 1.9 WAR with a part season total with hot streak included of 2.1 WAR at 30 yr old. Seems it will decline from there in the future maybe? How about leaving it at that! The argument isn’t about future JBJ. The point that started this whole discussion is that someone said he was a below league average player while with the Red Sox, which is far from the truth.
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