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Let’s Go Shopping - 2020-21 FAs
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 4, 2021 20:49:37 GMT -5
Well, there are worse insults than "I won't give you $24 million" True... but I mostly referring to the “he was never that good anyway” thing, which I feel like follows a lot of exits. You've been here long enough to know that literally nothing that's been said in this thread is new. "Is JBJ good or not" was an evergreen topic during his tenure in Boston.
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Post by benzinger on Mar 4, 2021 22:10:57 GMT -5
I love the predictable “good riddance” discussion when one of our guys goes. I’ve said it before: if there are guys who don’t want to resign, why are we surprised? Add: and I get letting JBJ go. I thank him, will miss him, and wish him well. They are all happy to resign...as long as the money is there. If the Sox had offered 2/$25m, he’d be on the team right now. I can assure you that none of these players are swayed by hot takes on a message board.
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Post by benzinger on Mar 4, 2021 22:15:01 GMT -5
Well, there are worse insults than "I won't give you $24 million" True... but I mostly referring to the “he was never that good anyway” thing, which I feel like follows a lot of exits. Especially when they weren’t very good....
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Post by benzinger on Mar 4, 2021 22:16:14 GMT -5
Once again for the record, at 140 games/season - about what he would typically play - Bradley was worth somewhere between $20M and $25M. Some of you may not feel that's good enough and that's ok. But that's what he brought to the team, and that's likely what he'll bring to the Brewers also. Good for them and good for him. So Boras failed horribly here?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 4, 2021 22:39:29 GMT -5
Half for the team, and half for him, which usually works out pretty well. As a footnote, Betts is getting paid about half of what he's worth.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 5, 2021 1:34:55 GMT -5
Does it not inflate his totals? Sure it's not as much, yet it's not that far off either. Your adding about 5 b war over five years. You are doing that with a player who doesn't play 150 games because his bat is so bad, not because of injuries. I'd argue given all the information we have, you should be decreasing his numbers per 150. He's more like Hernandez, his value would go down with more playing time not up. I completely disagree with this but I’m sick of explaining it so I digress. Let’s really cherry pick now, shall we? In seasons where he played a minimum of 133 games AND excluding his 2016 season: 3 Seasons, 2017 - 2019. Average of 2.6 WAR (didn’t use WAR/150 since people think I’m using it to boost his value somehow). So I’ve cherry picked out his best season (2016) and two seasons where he put up 2+ WAR in under 100 games. And he’s STILL a 2.6 WAR guy. If anyone remembers this argument started over someone calling JBJ a sub league average player. Considering he has 2.6 WAR per season (not per 150) after all that cherry picking you’d have to consider that disproven, no? Well I wasn't the one to make that claim. His bwar total is 3.5, 2.2 and 1.9 during those years. Not a trend I like and you really think this doesn't have to do with what Bradley will do going forward? Maybe that's the way you're looking at it, not me. This is all about Bradley going forward, it's a free agent signing thread. It's why what you think about 2020 matters. Your paying for his age 31 and on seasons, not what he did in the past.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 5, 2021 7:33:43 GMT -5
I can get wanting to take out 2016, but you're really cherry-picking to remove 2020 - it's the most recent season! I also think you're maybe confusing WAR/season with WAR/150? But I'll stop butting in to explain JimmyM's posts for him. Would you ever judge a players season off of 55 games? 2020 wasn’t a real season.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 5, 2021 7:35:32 GMT -5
Half for the team, and half for him, which usually works out pretty well. As a footnote, Betts is getting paid about half of what he's worth. Do you think a team could compete paying Mookie double what he’s getting paid now? If your answer is no, then that’s not his worth and the metric we use to determine a players worth is well worthless.
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Post by jbsox on Mar 5, 2021 8:57:29 GMT -5
I was one of the people who thought if we signed JBJ and wanted to dip back under the tax later in the season it wouldn’t be too difficult. However, JBJ making 12 mil this season probably would have put too much strain on future trades trying to make that happen. Just being under the tax limit now probably gives Bloom free reign to pay down as much as possible in future trades for a better prospect package as he has been doing if he chooses that path.
Who knows maybe we’ll see JBJ back in a Sox uniform again when we are ready to compete for championships. 😊
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 5, 2021 12:27:29 GMT -5
Half for the team, and half for him, which usually works out pretty well. As a footnote, Betts is getting paid about half of what he's worth. Do you think a team could compete paying Mookie double what he’s getting paid now? If your answer is no, then that’s not his worth and the metric we use to determine a players worth is well worthless. So a player has value to a team. That's in the context of baseball. Without that context the player's baseball skills have no meaning. That value is shared between the team which provides the context and the player. Hatfield has made the case, a good one, that there is value beyond the monetary. I'm not considering that here though I don't deny it exists. I use the term "worth" to assign a dollar figure to that shared value. We can certainly debate the idea of value without that figure. Others are doing just that, but I'm not into it. The fact that there's competition for his services means that others are willing to make a market for his share of that value - in dollars. They will get some of his worth, and the player will get some. It often comes out to right about half of the player's worth. That's how I'm using the term. But please feel free to develop your own language.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 5, 2021 13:18:18 GMT -5
The problem with the MLB model of worth is that they use the actual cost of a free agent bwar. That includes guys like Sandoval. They don't actually use what teams are willing to pay for a bwar. There's a massive difference. To judge a players worth, you need to use what teams are willing to pay him. So you think Betts can get double on the open market? I don't.
People say a bwar cost 8-10 million, that might be the actual cost after guys like Sandoval. That's not what teams are willing to pay for a bwar though. If it was guys like Hernandez would be getting around $16 million a year, not two years 14 million.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 5, 2021 13:21:48 GMT -5
Do you think a team could compete paying Mookie double what he’s getting paid now? If your answer is no, then that’s not his worth and the metric we use to determine a players worth is well worthless. So a player has value to a team. That's in the context of baseball. Without that context the player's baseball skills have no meaning. That value is shared between the team which provides the context and the player. Hatfield has made the case, a good one, that there is value beyond the monetary. I'm not considering that here though I don't deny it exists. I use the term "worth" to assign a dollar figure to that shared value. We can certainly debate the idea of value without that figure. Others are doing just that, but I'm not into it. The fact that there's competition for his services means that others are willing to make a market for his share of that value - in dollars. They will get some of his worth, and the player will get some. It often comes out to right about half of the player's worth. That's how I'm using the term. But please feel free to develop your own language. Thank you for the clarification and that is fair.
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Post by manfred on Mar 5, 2021 13:24:09 GMT -5
The problem with the MLB model of worth is that they use the actual cost of a free agent bwar. That includes guys like Sandoval. They don't actually use what teams are willing to pay for a bwar. There's a massive difference. To judge a players worth, you need to use what teams are willing to pay him. So you think Betts can get double on the open market? I don't. People say a bwar cost 8-10 million, that might be the actual cost after guys like Sandoval. That's not what teams are willing to pay for a bwar though. If it was guys like Hernandez would be getting around $16 million a year, not two years 14 million. I think the point is the player doesn’t get his full value. It is pretty fundamental. It is like saying you go to work and create, say $100,000 of value for your company. But they are not going to *pay* you $100,000.... or they make nothing. Companies (teams) only profit if there is surplus value. So they pay you x in order that you produce x+y, allowing them to pocket the y. I don’t see any reason baseball would be different. Like any worker, what you *make* is always less than the value you produce. (I think of “wins” as the commodity players produce... no different from the pins Adam Smith uses as his example in Wealth of Nations or “widgets” in a business class).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 5, 2021 13:41:05 GMT -5
The problem with the MLB model of worth is that they use the actual cost of a free agent bwar. That includes guys like Sandoval. They don't actually use what teams are willing to pay for a bwar. There's a massive difference. To judge a players worth, you need to use what teams are willing to pay him. So you think Betts can get double on the open market? I don't. People say a bwar cost 8-10 million, that might be the actual cost after guys like Sandoval. That's not what teams are willing to pay for a bwar though. If it was guys like Hernandez would be getting around $16 million a year, not two years 14 million. I think the point is the player doesn’t get his full value. It is pretty fundamental. It is like saying you go to work and create, say $100,000 of value for your company. But they are not going to *pay* you $100,000.... or they make nothing. Companies (teams) only profit if there is surplus value. So they pay you x in order that you produce x+y, allowing them to pocket the y. I don’t see any reason baseball would be different. Like any worker, what you *make* is always less than the value you produce. That's the difference between worth and value. Absolutely there is something there, I don't for a second think it's 50% though. Worth can never equal value because if it did there would be no Baseball. John Henry would go invest in something else that makes him money and so would all owners. So if we're trying to make that point I'm confused. Baseball players get a higher percentage of their worth than almost any workers in the world. It's an example of a model that's about as good as it gets in capitalism due to the unions and lack of replacement workers.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 5, 2021 13:53:55 GMT -5
Some almost comically deep philosophical questions being bandied about here. It is interesting that the Invisible Hand valued Kiké at $7 million and JBJ at $12 million, considering that their projections are pretty comparable in WAR terms, and Kiké has the greater versatility (though I actually think the projections look a bit light on both of them). Score one for Bloom and/or Boras I guess.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 5, 2021 13:55:32 GMT -5
The problem with the MLB model of worth is that they use the actual cost of a free agent bwar. That includes guys like Sandoval. They don't actually use what teams are willing to pay for a bwar. There's a massive difference. To judge a players worth, you need to use what teams are willing to pay him. So you think Betts can get double on the open market? I don't. People say a bwar cost 8-10 million, that might be the actual cost after guys like Sandoval. That's not what teams are willing to pay for a bwar though. If it was guys like Hernandez would be getting around $16 million a year, not two years 14 million. The dollars per WAR free agent model does a pretty good job of predicting team behavior, but doesn't capture the complexity of free agent bidding.
The most clear shortcoming of the model is that, in real life, teams will pay almost nothing for the first .5 WAR, then the next 1 WAR or so comes at a discount. This is because roster spots, at bats and defensive innings are scarce so not at all teams can convert a player's projected WAR into actual wins. If you're a DH that projects to be worth 1.5 WAR over a full season, there might only be one or two teams that can improve their team by 1.5 wins by signing you - not a great negotiating position.
On the other end, you have elite starting pitchers who can improve every single team. You don't find a lot of great projected WAR/$ deals among them. I think Mookie Betts would have done very well if every team was bidding for him.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Mar 9, 2021 22:33:42 GMT -5
I think Mookie Betts would have done very well if every team was bidding for him. [/div][/quote]
Every team can not afford a $30+ million player. You also have to look at financial commitment on the books already. Even if a team could afford Betts what is the likelihood of him signing with a Pittsburg, Detroit, Baltimore, Kansas City, Texas, Washington, Arizona, or Colorado...0. A team would need to be close enough to being a World Series caliber to really be worth it to spend that money! Mookie would never have signed with any of those teams.
I knew it would the Dodgers who would end up signing “Mr. Glitz” two years ago when everyone was talking about whether Betts would remain in Boston. He was never going to re-sign...never.
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Post by benzinger on May 29, 2021 21:53:48 GMT -5
So, again, like, there's this whole other job baseball players have besides hitting...
Personally I would called JBJ about average at this stage in his career. But it's odd that you keep forgetting that defense exists. And it's especially rich for you to have such an arrogant tone about it ("your apology is accepted") when you reveal such a blind spot in your own comments.
(Also 94 is not sub-replacement, it's just slightly below average, but I take it that was just a typo.)
Besides the weirdness of leaving out defense, Benzinger's citing his career OPS+ of 94 includes his first two years, when his OPS+ averages 53. 53! His OPS+ for the next six years is 101. When you sign a 30YO free agent, nobody cares what he did when he was 23. I wanted to circle back on some of this pre-season chatter that said the Sox were going to miss JBJ and needed to sign Brock Holt & Moreland, as well. Also, surprised to see just how mediocre Benintendi has become. That was no fluke.... JBJ: -.2WAR, OPS+ 39(not a misprint) Holt: 0.0 WAR, OPS+ 109 Moreland: .2WAR, OPS+ 100 Benintendi : .6WAR, OPS+ 103 Kikè: 1.0WAR, OPS+ 100 Marwin: .5WAR, OPS+ 62 Renfroe: .6WAR, OPS+ 89
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Post by rjp313jr on May 30, 2021 5:02:26 GMT -5
Besides the weirdness of leaving out defense, Benzinger's citing his career OPS+ of 94 includes his first two years, when his OPS+ averages 53. 53! His OPS+ for the next six years is 101. When you sign a 30YO free agent, nobody cares what he did when he was 23. I wanted to circle back on some of this pre-season chatter that said the Sox were going to miss JBJ and needed to sign Brock Holt & Moreland, as well. Also, surprised to see just how mediocre Benintendi has become. That was no fluke.... JBJ: -.2WAR, OPS+ 39(not a misprint) Holt: 0.0 WAR, OPS+ 109 Moreland: .2WAR, OPS+ 100 Benintendi : .6WAR, OPS+ 103 Kikè: 1.0WAR, OPS+ 100 Marwin: .5WAR, OPS+ 62 Renfroe: .6WAR, OPS+ 89 Benintendi was still a terrible trade... his May has been good after a lousy start to the year. And thus far, they haven’t gotten anything in return for him.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 30, 2021 6:20:39 GMT -5
Benny was traded for futures including Franchy's future. Decide this in 5 years.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 30, 2021 7:24:21 GMT -5
I wanted to circle back on some of this pre-season chatter that said the Sox were going to miss JBJ and needed to sign Brock Holt & Moreland, as well. Also, surprised to see just how mediocre Benintendi has become. That was no fluke.... JBJ: -.2WAR, OPS+ 39(not a misprint) Holt: 0.0 WAR, OPS+ 109 Moreland: .2WAR, OPS+ 100 Benintendi : .6WAR, OPS+ 103 Kikè: 1.0WAR, OPS+ 100 Marwin: .5WAR, OPS+ 62 Renfroe: .6WAR, OPS+ 89 Benintendi was still a terrible trade... his May has been good after a lousy start to the year. And thus far, they haven’t gotten anything in return for him. Coming from you this surprises me, you are usually more thoughtful. Maybe it has been terrible thus far but that is certainly not the final conclusion of the trade by any means.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 30, 2021 8:32:00 GMT -5
Benintendi was still a terrible trade... his May has been good after a lousy start to the year. And thus far, they haven’t gotten anything in return for him. Coming from you this surprises me, you are usually more thoughtful. Maybe it has been terrible thus far but that is certainly not the final conclusion of the trade by any means. Yea let’s see who the players to be named later are and they could be different than what they are historically considering the COVID lost season. But Franchy was a huge miss and I feel we’ve seen enough to say as much. So as a judgment on how the trade helps the short term, 2021 season, they lost big time. It feels like he was determined to move Beni for whatever he could get and that’s something, I just don’t get. Trading a young asset that used to have real value at its bottom isn’t all that smart.
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Post by congusgambler33 on May 30, 2021 8:42:04 GMT -5
someone mentioned JBJ and he is not even playing against Lefthanders is hitting 157 playing left field and his OPS is just above 500. Could this be buyers remorse. I feel bad for him because he was always a class individual. Hope he picks it up, but not looking very good thus far.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,164
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Post by cdj on May 30, 2021 8:43:12 GMT -5
You can say the sold low as he was at the lowest point in his career but I don’t think they move him unless they got on offer they really liked. So I don’t think they think that they sold low. They got 5 pieces for a corner OF with limited pop, meh speed, and meh defense (might be generous). From the looks of things he is a 1.5 tool player these days. I think the trade was actually pretty solid risk management, I don’t think Benintendi has the star ability we thought he did so the upside is you’re getting 5 pieces for a guy who sucks and the downside is you’re getting 5 pieces for an average to above average major league starter who needs a contract soon
Not gonna go over Franchy for that thousandth time but I’m just glad he’s finally getting regular reps and is off to a good start. I think if they let him get his confidence back he can still provide a useful lefty bat in a platoon
This doesn’t even get into the fact that Winckowski has been lights out, we still have 3 piece to be named, and our current OF has been more productive than the OF we all dearly miss (and at 25% of the cost)
So like I said earlier I’m not really all that interested in declaring somebody a winner or lose yet- the narrative changes every other week and will only continue as the prospects get named and we get hyped up after their good outings lol. I’m not sure I’d even call it a loss this year like some want to claim as Benintendi currently would be the OF w the 4th highest WAR on the team. That’s what happens when you only got a hit tool. So he’s going to need to continue to hit for a high average to be valuable, which I do think he’s very capable of. It’s just a different player than what we expected when he was coming up (high average, 20-20, good defense). He’s basically just turning into Mark Kotsay- that’s not a bad thing. He had a long, relatively productive career. It’s just not really the high ceiling we all dreamed of years back
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,988
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Post by jimoh on May 30, 2021 10:43:31 GMT -5
[...]. Benintendi ... He’s basically just turning into Mark Kotsay- that’s not a bad thing. He had a long, relatively productive career. It’s just not really the high ceiling we all dreamed of years back Mark Kotsay played ~1500 games in CF, ~1000 in RF, <500 in LF. Benintendi will never turn into Mark Kotsay.
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