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Let’s Go Shopping - 2020-21 FAs
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Post by benzinger on May 30, 2021 11:10:20 GMT -5
Coming from you this surprises me, you are usually more thoughtful. Maybe it has been terrible thus far but that is certainly not the final conclusion of the trade by any means. Yea let’s see who the players to be named later are and they could be different than what they are historically considering the COVID lost season. But Franchy was a huge miss and I feel we’ve seen enough to say as much. So as a judgment on how the trade helps the short term, 2021 season, they lost big time. It feels like he was determined to move Beni for whatever he could get and that’s something, I just don’t get. Trading a young asset that used to have real value at its bottom isn’t all that smart. Franchy looks to be a total bust(Wily Mo Pena II), but Benintendi is just so unproductive(even when he’s “hot”). He has 48 hits this year and 39 of those have been singles. We need to see what the PTBNL end up looking like, but it’s a myth that Benintendi is missed at all.
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Post by benzinger on May 30, 2021 11:11:41 GMT -5
someone mentioned JBJ and he is not even playing against Lefthanders is hitting 157 playing left field and his OPS is just above 500. Could this be buyers remorse. I feel bad for him because he was always a class individual. Hope he picks it up, but not looking very good thus far. There was page after page of hand-wringing over the need to bring JBJ back. He’s easily one of the worst players in MLB this year. Bloom nailed it.
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Post by manfred on May 30, 2021 11:13:48 GMT -5
someone mentioned JBJ and he is not even playing against Lefthanders is hitting 157 playing left field and his OPS is just above 500. Could this be buyers remorse. I feel bad for him because he was always a class individual. Hope he picks it up, but not looking very good thus far. There was page after page of hand-wringing over the need to bring JBJ back. He’s easily one of the worst players in MLB this year. Bloom nailed it. It appears so, but to be fair we don’t know how JBJ would be if he had a full spring and was back in Boston. I’m not saying this to argue they should have resigned him... but I don’t think you can simply transfer his current stats and say this is what he’d have been.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 30, 2021 11:19:41 GMT -5
Can't disagree that it was a deal that didn't need to happen. I was a Benny fan and still hope he does well, but my thoughts on his ceiling have gone way down. He might just be a good second division player, I think there is a good chance we like the deal in the end.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 30, 2021 11:29:36 GMT -5
[...]. Benintendi ... He’s basically just turning into Mark Kotsay- that’s not a bad thing. He had a long, relatively productive career. It’s just not really the high ceiling we all dreamed of years back Mark Kotsay played ~1500 games in CF, ~1000 in RF, <500 in LF. Benintendi will never turn into Mark Kotsay. Definitely a fair point. Better comp might be David Murphy. Good player. Not world beater, which is what we thought Benny would be coming up
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Post by voiceofreason on May 30, 2021 11:32:51 GMT -5
I think this also reaffirms the Fenway effect on batting numbers that these guys who are marginally good look better in Fenway.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 30, 2021 11:33:55 GMT -5
Mark Kotsay played ~1500 games in CF, ~1000 in RF, <500 in LF. Benintendi will never turn into Mark Kotsay. Definitely a fair point. Better comp might be David Murphy. Good player. Not world beater, which is what we thought Benny would be coming up A 2nd division starter...
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Post by incandenza on May 30, 2021 11:46:34 GMT -5
someone mentioned JBJ and he is not even playing against Lefthanders is hitting 157 playing left field and his OPS is just above 500. Could this be buyers remorse. I feel bad for him because he was always a class individual. Hope he picks it up, but not looking very good thus far. There was page after page of hand-wringing over the need to bring JBJ back. He’s easily one of the worst players in MLB this year. Bloom nailed it. At the price he was signed at, I think Bloom certainly made the right call. But I wouldn't write JBJ's obituary just yet.
| PAs
| wRC+ | 2017 | 541
| 89 | 2018 | 535
| 90 | 2019 | 567
| 90 | 2020-21 | 388
| 83 |
We know he's streaky, but he's been uncannily consistent in the long run. He was hot for much of 2020 and with the short season that made his numbers look real good. Over the larger sample of 2020-21 he's a little under his norm; if he goes on another hot streak in the next month or so he'll probably end up right at his normal rate of offensive production over 600 PAs.
Of course it wouldn't be unheard of for a 31 year old to fall off a cliff offensively, so that's possible too. We'll see.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 30, 2021 13:46:11 GMT -5
As we're approaching the 1/3 point of the season, I thought it would be useful to create a list of all the FA SP from last winter, with their contacts and three metrics: bWAR, xwOBA allowed, and Win Probability Added.
Teams as of this AM had played 49 to 52 games, and 54 is what I'm waiting for. My "duh" moment I just had is that I can start gathering the data right now for pitchers who are not scheduled to pitch again before their team hits 54.
My guess is that Bloom did pretty well with Richards and Perez. We'll see.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 30, 2021 16:28:13 GMT -5
As we're approaching the 1/3 point of the season, I thought it would be useful to create a list of all the FA SP from last winter, with their contacts and three metrics: bWAR, xwOBA allowed, and Win Probability Added.
Teams as of this AM had played 49 to 52 games, and 54 is what I'm waiting for. My "duh" moment I just had is that I can start gathering the data right now for pitchers who are not scheduled to pitch again before their team hits 54.
My guess is that Bloom did pretty well with Richards and Perez. We'll see.
Well, I've got the contracts and the current bWAR for all the 23 guys who were on the consensus top 28 FA starters list that I compiled in the off-season. (Tanaka went back to Japan, Chatwood was signed as a reliever, and Porcello, Leake, and Hamels are still unsigned.) I do want to add the names of more obscure guys, but this is a legit bunch to analyze.
At present, the Red Sox have 1.6 bWAR from their free agent starters, at a cost of $5M (1/3 the year).
The other 21 guys have combined for 2.4 bWAR at a cost of $48.5M.
No typos. Of the 23 guys, only 11 have been above replacement level.
A dozen guys have one more start to make before we get to 1/3 of the season. I'll have all the numbers on June 4.
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Post by unitspin on May 30, 2021 17:09:43 GMT -5
Okay on jbj, there was a handful of posters on here that were pretty consistent that he would be a horrible signing, I'll pat myself on the back for that. Now moving onto Benny anyone on this board pretending to knock him now, is laughable. If franchy had the same line as Benny the same ppl would be falling all over themselves to talk about how good of a trade it was. Benny is batting anywhere from 3rd to 5th in KC lineup a 1/3rd through the season is batting .280-.290. As for perez I got ripped on this board multiple times saying he is an extremely valuable pitcher most the posters were completely against him being resigned until he was. Alot of flip flopping going on in here lately and ppl changing their prior opinions to save face. Do we need to dive into the erod love that was running around here before the season, is he the 5th best pitcher in the mlb? At least stay consistent.....
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Post by benzinger on May 30, 2021 17:33:40 GMT -5
There was page after page of hand-wringing over the need to bring JBJ back. He’s easily one of the worst players in MLB this year. Bloom nailed it. At the price he was signed at, I think Bloom certainly made the right call. But I wouldn't write JBJ's obituary just yet.
| PAs
| wRC+ | 2017 | 541
| 89 | 2018 | 535
| 90 | 2019 | 567
| 90 | 2020-21 | 388
| 83 |
We know he's streaky, but he's been uncannily consistent in the long run. He was hot for much of 2020 and with the short season that made his numbers look real good. Over the larger sample of 2020-21 he's a little under his norm; if he goes on another hot streak in the next month or so he'll probably end up right at his normal rate of offensive production over 600 PAs.
Of course it wouldn't be unheard of for a 31 year old to fall off a cliff offensively, so that's possible too. We'll see.
Jackie Bradley Jr. has a career OPS+ of 91. And a career WAR of 18 in 7.5 seasons in the pros(despite having an elite glove). Outside of a couple hot streaks, perhaps he was never really anything special? At least he picked his spots; he was great during the 2018 postseason run.
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Post by benzinger on May 30, 2021 17:35:46 GMT -5
Okay on jbj, there was a handful of posters on here that were pretty consistent that he would be a horrible signing, I'll pat myself on the back for that. Now moving onto Benny anyone on this board pretending to knock him now, is laughable. If franchy had the same line as Benny the same ppl would be falling all over themselves to talk about how good of a trade it was. Benny is batting anywhere from 3rd to 5th in KC lineup a 1/3rd through the season is batting .280-.290. As for perez I got ripped on this board multiple times saying he is an extremely valuable pitcher most the posters were completely against him being resigned until he was. Alot of flip flopping going on in here lately and ppl changing their prior opinions to save face. Do we need to dive into the erod love that was running around here before the season, is he the 5th best pitcher in the mlb? At least stay consistent..... Benintendi has a balsa bat. Lots of soft contact. It’s weird for a guy to peak at age 22. I had such high hopes for him. But he isn’t missed. Renfroe has been much better.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 30, 2021 18:33:57 GMT -5
Okay on jbj, there was a handful of posters on here that were pretty consistent that he would be a horrible signing, I'll pat myself on the back for that. Now moving onto Benny anyone on this board pretending to knock him now, is laughable. If franchy had the same line as Benny the same ppl would be falling all over themselves to talk about how good of a trade it was. Benny is batting anywhere from 3rd to 5th in KC lineup a 1/3rd through the season is batting .280-.290. As for perez I got ripped on this board multiple times saying he is an extremely valuable pitcher most the posters were completely against him being resigned until he was. Alot of flip flopping going on in here lately and ppl changing their prior opinions to save face. Do we need to dive into the erod love that was running around here before the season, is he the 5th best pitcher in the mlb? At least stay consistent..... Benny line this year is within like 15 OPS points of Franchy’s career numbers against righties but all I’ve heard this season is how Franchy has always sucked...very confusing. And yes if Franchy was performing like a tick-above-league average hitter we would be pretty excited seeing as how we got 4 other pieces on top of that. Granted the power and defense and base running for Benintendi continue to be a concern but still, no shit people would be happy with ok production from Cordero. You’re not exactly proving a point. Maybe Benintendi hits .330 from here on out and that’s who he is- that would be great, I’m pulling for him even if it means we “lose” a deal- but chances are he’s probably something in the middle (.280-.290 with meh pop and not a whole lot else to his game) I don’t understand your fascination for taking victory laps on takes but do you king. Like I was big on the Hernandez signing and he’s worth double what Benny is so far this season but I don’t point to it and pretend like I’m a beacon of baseball enlightenment. Why? Because i know I’m going to be right and wrong all the time.
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Post by manfred on May 30, 2021 18:57:35 GMT -5
Okay on jbj, there was a handful of posters on here that were pretty consistent that he would be a horrible signing, I'll pat myself on the back for that. Now moving onto Benny anyone on this board pretending to knock him now, is laughable. If franchy had the same line as Benny the same ppl would be falling all over themselves to talk about how good of a trade it was. Benny is batting anywhere from 3rd to 5th in KC lineup a 1/3rd through the season is batting .280-.290. As for perez I got ripped on this board multiple times saying he is an extremely valuable pitcher most the posters were completely against him being resigned until he was. Alot of flip flopping going on in here lately and ppl changing their prior opinions to save face. Do we need to dive into the erod love that was running around here before the season, is he the 5th best pitcher in the mlb? At least stay consistent..... I honestly don’t remember anyone being against resigning Perez. I was not psyched the first time, but once he performed well? I was wrong the first around, I’d say.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 30, 2021 19:05:28 GMT -5
Okay on jbj, there was a handful of posters on here that were pretty consistent that he would be a horrible signing, I'll pat myself on the back for that. Now moving onto Benny anyone on this board pretending to knock him now, is laughable. If franchy had the same line as Benny the same ppl would be falling all over themselves to talk about how good of a trade it was. Benny is batting anywhere from 3rd to 5th in KC lineup a 1/3rd through the season is batting .280-.290. As for perez I got ripped on this board multiple times saying he is an extremely valuable pitcher most the posters were completely against him being resigned until he was. Alot of flip flopping going on in here lately and ppl changing their prior opinions to save face. Do we need to dive into the erod love that was running around here before the season, is he the 5th best pitcher in the mlb? At least stay consistent..... I honestly don’t remember anyone being against resigning Perez. I was not psyched the first time, but once he performed well? I was wrong the first around, I’d say. Especially since they brought him back for less than the option. Pretty shrewd in hindsight. I do expect some regression from him as the year continues but the guy just goes out and does his job
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Post by dyoungteach on May 30, 2021 19:24:11 GMT -5
Yea let’s see who the players to be named later are and they could be different than what they are historically considering the COVID lost season. But Franchy was a huge miss and I feel we’ve seen enough to say as much. So as a judgment on how the trade helps the short term, 2021 season, they lost big time. It feels like he was determined to move Beni for whatever he could get and that’s something, I just don’t get. Trading a young asset that used to have real value at its bottom isn’t all that smart. Franchy looks to be a total bust(Wily Mo Pena II), but Benintendi is just so unproductive(even when he’s “hot”). He has 48 hits this year and 39 of those have been singles. We need to see what the PTBNL end up looking like, but it’s a myth that Benintendi is missed at all. You can’t say Franchy is a bust at all. You can say his first go round didn’t go well. But bust.... I mean gosh I’m sure twins regret calling David Ortiz a bust
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Post by unitspin on May 30, 2021 20:05:30 GMT -5
Okay on jbj, there was a handful of posters on here that were pretty consistent that he would be a horrible signing, I'll pat myself on the back for that. Now moving onto Benny anyone on this board pretending to knock him now, is laughable. If franchy had the same line as Benny the same ppl would be falling all over themselves to talk about how good of a trade it was. Benny is batting anywhere from 3rd to 5th in KC lineup a 1/3rd through the season is batting .280-.290. As for perez I got ripped on this board multiple times saying he is an extremely valuable pitcher most the posters were completely against him being resigned until he was. Alot of flip flopping going on in here lately and ppl changing their prior opinions to save face. Do we need to dive into the erod love that was running around here before the season, is he the 5th best pitcher in the mlb? At least stay consistent..... Benny line this year is within like 15 OPS points of Franchy’s career numbers against righties but all I’ve heard this season is how Franchy has always sucked...very confusing. And yes if Franchy was performing like a tick-above-league average hitter we would be pretty excited seeing as how we got 4 other pieces on top of that. Granted the power and defense and base running for Benintendi continue to be a concern but still, no shit people would be happy with ok production from Cordero. You’re not exactly proving a point. Maybe Benintendi hits .330 from here on out and that’s who he is- that would be great, I’m pulling for him even if it means we “lose” a deal- but chances are he’s probably something in the middle (.280-.290 with meh pop and not a whole lot else to his game) I don’t understand your fascination for taking victory laps on takes but do you king. Like I was big on the Hernandez signing and he’s worth double what Benny is so far this season but I don’t point to it and pretend like I’m a beacon of baseball enlightenment. Why? Because i know I’m going to be right and wrong all the time. If I took victory laps on here it would be 90% of my takes for the year. Maybe just maybe obscure stats pulled from thin air do not dictate performance on the field, just a crazy idea..
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 30, 2021 20:07:11 GMT -5
Ah yes the very obscure stat of OPS. I specified his hitting against RHP because to me it’s very apparent he was brought in as a lefty bat part of a platoon.
Only point I’m making is that it’s interesting how the standards change depending on the player. Benny .720 for the year is great and we took a huge loss but Franchy‘s .710 for his career against rhp means he has always been terrible
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Post by jmei on May 30, 2021 21:14:50 GMT -5
To be fair, an OBP-heavy OPS (like Beni has) is quite a bit more valuable than a SLG-heavy OPS (like Franchy has).
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Post by benzinger on May 30, 2021 22:32:40 GMT -5
Okay on jbj, there was a handful of posters on here that were pretty consistent that he would be a horrible signing, I'll pat myself on the back for that. Now moving onto Benny anyone on this board pretending to knock him now, is laughable. If franchy had the same line as Benny the same ppl would be falling all over themselves to talk about how good of a trade it was. Benny is batting anywhere from 3rd to 5th in KC lineup a 1/3rd through the season is batting .280-.290. As for perez I got ripped on this board multiple times saying he is an extremely valuable pitcher most the posters were completely against him being resigned until he was. Alot of flip flopping going on in here lately and ppl changing their prior opinions to save face. Do we need to dive into the erod love that was running around here before the season, is he the 5th best pitcher in the mlb? At least stay consistent..... I honestly don’t remember anyone being against resigning Perez. I was not psyched the first time, but once he performed well? I was wrong the first around, I’d say. I was definitely not happy to see Perez back. I STILL don’t trust him at all, but he certainly has performed better this year.
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Post by foreverred9 on May 30, 2021 23:23:32 GMT -5
Well, I've got the contracts and the current bWAR for all the 23 guys who were on the consensus top 28 FA starters list that I compiled in the off-season. (Tanaka went back to Japan, Chatwood was signed as a reliever, and Porcello, Leake, and Hamels are still unsigned.) I do want to add the names of more obscure guys, but this is a legit bunch to analyze. At present, the Red Sox have 1.6 bWAR from their free agent starters, at a cost of $5M (1/3 the year). The other 21 guys have combined for 2.4 bWAR at a cost of $48.5M. No typos. Of the 23 guys, only 11 have been above replacement level. A dozen guys have one more start to make before we get to 1/3 of the season. I'll have all the numbers on June 4.
This is really fascinating. I'd be curious to see the individuals once you wrap up the analysis. What would also be interesting is to hindsight the prior consensus FAs and see what the teams have spent for $ per WAR on those players. My hypothesis is that FA spending is very inefficient and teams are learning that the best dollar spent is locking up their stars in years 4 and 5 before they hit the open market. We already know FA spending is inefficient because it costs something like $8M per WAR to acquire a player when the league average is $5M per WAR ($5B salaries, 1000 WAR), but I am wondering if the hindsight view would actually show a cost per WAR even higher than 8M. So far the 2021 cohort is running at $13M per WAR and that will likely get worse each successive year (salaries rise, performance drops). Eric do you have that data? If not, I might go pull it. What I'm envisioning is a triangle where FA year is each row, year of the contract is each column (so each diagonal is a season), and the metric being salary paid over WAR in the given season.
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Post by tookme55 on May 30, 2021 23:57:16 GMT -5
David Ortiz was not getting the largest contract as a DH.
Rafael Devers will be the next prize free agent to be for Red Sox.
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Post by benzinger on May 31, 2021 10:27:18 GMT -5
David Ortiz was not getting the largest contract as a DH. Rafael Devers will be the next prize free agent to be for Red Sox. Bogaerts can(and almost certainly will) opt out after next season. It will be interesting to see how the Sox approach that one. Devers is due for a massive raise and he should get it, too. They need that bat long-term.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on May 31, 2021 10:49:22 GMT -5
We need to build around Bogey and Devers. Might have cheap help on way; Duran, Casas and Downs. Maybe 4th pick.
Bloom seems to have a great insight on pitchers. Once our bad contracts are gone; Price, Eovaldi and Sale. He will put together a helluva team IMO
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