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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 27, 2020 11:39:35 GMT -5
Ozuna is the front runner in my mind. A free agent without a qualifying offer, unlike Springer, he can play LF adequately (Gold Glove 2017). He can then slide into DH after Martinez. He’d be costly, though, having turned down a Cards offer to sign a 1 yr. $18,000,000. with the Braves. Boras client. Bauer would be an outstanding acquisition. No way we can afford both. So atl can't offer ozuna a qualifying offer? I was not sure about that. Everyone forgets about dj lemahieu as yanks cannot afford him bcs of the cap. And I wonder if the reds can afford to bring back bauer. This off-season the red sox have alot of power. Not alot of teams can spend money. We could get some deals. Ozuna already received a QO from the Cardinals and declined to accept. Saint Louis was smart. It offered the QO, and when Ozuna didn’t accept, it received a draft compensation. It then signed Castellanos who was not given an offer, so no compensation.
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Post by jbsox on Sept 27, 2020 11:55:05 GMT -5
I just see Gavin Lux as another in a nearly infinite line of cautionary tales. Young guys struggle. Even the ones who turn out great. If the idea is to compete next year, any plan that plugs Duran in is kind of crazy, especially with a question in LF. As I’ve said before, you are running the risk of a really bad outfield. It may be forward looking, but it is not a strategy for competing next year. I agree with you. It’s too bad though not one of AV, JBJ, Beni, or Duran bat rigththanded. It would make it a little easier to play the matchups if Duran actually pans out. If he actually does next year, Beni rebounds, JBJ has another solid year, Alex continues his excellence maybe we get creative and say Beni play 1B part time along with Dalbec. I’d rather deal with surplus being the problem than not enough. It also makes it easier to make trades down the line if need be.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Sept 27, 2020 13:05:50 GMT -5
Ozuna is the front runner in my mind. A free agent without a qualifying offer, unlike Springer, he can play LF adequately (Gold Glove 2017). He can then slide into DH after Martinez. He’d be costly, though, having turned down a Cards offer to sign a 1 yr. $18,000,000. with the Braves. Boras client. Bauer would be an outstanding acquisition. No way we can afford both. The problem I see is Benintendi versus Ozuna. How much of a upgrade is Ozuna versus the cost? Ozuna is going to be worth at least 20 million AAV for the next 3 years (rough estimate) versus Benintendi's 5 million AAV next year plus a arbitration year afterwards. Benintendi is 4 years younger. Ozuna's right handed power in Fenway is tantalizing on the other hand. It's a close call and Benintendi is really a LF only. So you're picking between the two if you have to pick one. I probably stick with Benny. Spend the money elsewhere. Devers is going to need at least a 20 million AAV raise in a extension (going from pre arbitration to a real contract). Verdugo will need a big raise going from the league minimum to a contract extension.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Sept 27, 2020 13:41:23 GMT -5
Duran might not even pan out and they could use a fourth outfielder even if he does. Outfielders will get hurt and need days off and JBJ can play all three positions (can be brought in as a defensive replacement) and wouldn't be that expensive. All signs point to the Sox going to Duran regardless in the middle of 2021. Just like the Sox went to JBJ in 2014 full time with no other option available. I see a stop gap CF whether it's trade or free agent signing. Duran is probably a perfect 9 hole hitter until he figures it out in MLB and becomes the future lead off hitter for this team in the long term future.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 27, 2020 13:44:36 GMT -5
Pillar would be the perfect fit until Duran arrives (15 days) then Pillar becomes the forth outfielder possibly platooning with Bennintendi.
Pillar's Fenway numbers are off the chart.
You could also have Munoz up until Duran arrives.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 27, 2020 13:52:13 GMT -5
Duran might not even pan out and they could use a fourth outfielder even if he does. Outfielders will get hurt and need days off and JBJ can play all three positions (can be brought in as a defensive replacement) and wouldn't be that expensive. All signs point to the Sox going to Duran regardless in the middle of 2021. Just like the Sox went to JBJ in 2014 full time with no other option available. I see a stop gap CF whether it's trade or free agent signing. Duran is probably a perfect 9 hole hitter until he figures it out in MLB and becomes the future lead off hitter for this team in the long term future. Duran profiles as a fringe starter, I think he is more of a "nice to have" then a guy you build your OF around.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Sept 27, 2020 13:59:02 GMT -5
All signs point to the Sox going to Duran regardless in the middle of 2021. Just like the Sox went to JBJ in 2014 full time with no other option available. I see a stop gap CF whether it's trade or free agent signing. Duran is probably a perfect 9 hole hitter until he figures it out in MLB and becomes the future lead off hitter for this team in the long term future. Duran profiles as a fringe starter, I think he is more of a "nice to have" then a guy you build your OF around. Scouting reports on Duran have drastically changed in the last year. He's turned into a different type of hitter while in exhibition games in Pawtucket this year. Hitting for more power, and making more quality contact. His batting stance has completely changed from 2019 to 2020. I think the Sox see a fulltime starting CF with Duran.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 27, 2020 14:19:19 GMT -5
Thanks for the correction. I'd still rather go for JBJ and someone like Profar/Schoop at 2B than spend big with where our team is at and rosters expanded to 26. JBJ has a solid floor so he will be tradeable if things pan out with Duran and others, in my view.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Sept 27, 2020 15:13:10 GMT -5
The Sox are going to be signing depth free agent starters in the off season no matter what happens.
I think the Sox are somewhat confident that Eduardo Rodriguez will be ready slowly but surely for opening day. So tentatively the rotation looks like this-
Eduardo Rodriguez Eovaldi Perez Pivetta Houck
The real question is-
Did Houck show enough in his 3 starts this year to pencil him in the 5th spot of the rotation to begin next year out of spring training?
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 27, 2020 15:17:05 GMT -5
I think the Sox are going to sign at least one free agent starter. I've heard somes say they may sign two but I don't love that idea unless one is more of an emergency guy.
Also, with the year Benintendi had, the more bringing back Bradley makes sense to me. Our biggest needs are OF, 2B, RP and SP and I think we can afford to sign him and fill those other needs.
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Post by unitspin on Sept 27, 2020 20:34:00 GMT -5
Thanks for the correction. I'd still rather go for JBJ and someone like Profar/Schoop at 2B than spend big with where our team is at and rosters expanded to 26. JBJ has a solid floor so he will be tradeable if things pan out with Duran and others, in my view. If the ownership is honest about turning the ship in one year. Bringing back jbj discredits that right off the bat. There are pieces on the market that can be had to make a direct impact and jbj is not in that group. He is just holding the line and hoping you get lucky. So if he is resigned I take it as just that 3rd place in the division.
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 27, 2020 20:58:57 GMT -5
I think the Sox are going to sign at least one free agent starter. I've heard somes say they may sign two but I don't love that idea unless one is more of an emergency guy. Also, with the year Benintendi had, the more bringing back Bradley makes sense to me. Our biggest needs are OF, 2B, RP and SP and I think we can afford to sign him and fill those other needs. I’d bet the Sox look at the trade market rather than FA when it comes to SP. I don’t see any of the available options to be all that good for the $ you will have to pay. Money would be much more wisely spent signing a more sure bat suck as relamuto springer or lemahuie and trading for pitching.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 27, 2020 22:04:29 GMT -5
I think the Sox are going to sign at least one free agent starter. I've heard somes say they may sign two but I don't love that idea unless one is more of an emergency guy. Also, with the year Benintendi had, the more bringing back Bradley makes sense to me. Our biggest needs are OF, 2B, RP and SP and I think we can afford to sign him and fill those other needs. I’d bet the Sox look at the trade market rather than FA when it comes to SP. I don’t see any of the available options to be all that good for the $ you will have to pay. Money would be much more wisely spent signing a more sure bat suck as relamuto springer or lemahuie and trading for pitching. Gausman. Those bats are all 30 plus and will need longer deals which could be bad contracts. Besides, our farm depth already sucks and we're still recovering from Dombrowski trading from it for years.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 27, 2020 22:34:41 GMT -5
I am more inclined to think trade route. Given our potential starters and their projected salaries, Perez and Pivetta seem like perfect candidates to couple with players like Chatham or Chavis depending on what is coming back.
The trade would hypothetically be pitcher plus player plus money traded for a pitching upgrade that is fairly priced with 2-3 years control. And no I don't want to search for examples.
ADD: Even better yet, we could up the ante and get a competitive balance pick or IFA money.
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Post by manfred on Sept 27, 2020 22:39:45 GMT -5
I am more inclined to think trade route. Given our potential starters and their projected salaries, Perez and Pivetta seem like perfect candidates to couple with players like Chatham or Chavis depending on what is coming back. The trade would hypothetically be pitcher plus player plus money traded for a pitching upgrade that is fairly priced with 2-3 years control. And no I don't want to search for examples. Or hope Pivetta is an upgrade. I don’t really know how much upgrade you get for him and Chatham.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 27, 2020 22:48:21 GMT -5
I am more inclined to think trade route. Given our potential starters and their projected salaries, Perez and Pivetta seem like perfect candidates to couple with players like Chatham or Chavis depending on what is coming back. The trade would hypothetically be pitcher plus player plus money traded for a pitching upgrade that is fairly priced with 2-3 years control. And no I don't want to search for examples. Or hope Pivetta is an upgrade. I don’t really know how much upgrade you get for him and Chatham. MLB financial circumstance is our friend my friend. We are about to enter the era of haves and have nots.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 28, 2020 17:28:49 GMT -5
We already traded the veterans that we could trade, except for JBJ who they didn’t trade for some reason even those he has all but said he is gone. Our farm system still needs some serious re-stocking. He has? How has he indicated this exactly? His social media activity and the way he acted during the last home game, taking photos with his family, saying thank you, etc.
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Post by manfred on Sept 28, 2020 19:36:04 GMT -5
He has? How has he indicated this exactly? His social media activity and the way he acted during the last home game, taking photos with his family, saying thank you, etc. Seems like that might also have been more a product of the way the team built it up as maybe his last game. Doesn’t mean he would not return if properly paid.
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Post by soxin8 on Sept 29, 2020 12:36:29 GMT -5
Ozuna is the front runner in my mind. A free agent without a qualifying offer, unlike Springer, he can play LF adequately (Gold Glove 2017). He can then slide into DH after Martinez. He’d be costly, though, having turned down a Cards offer to sign a 1 yr. $18,000,000. with the Braves. Boras client. Bauer would be an outstanding acquisition. No way we can afford both. No money constraints next year. You can dream on anyone and decide if you want to be the winning bidder and/or give up the draft choice. I wonder if Gausman has pitched his way to a qualifying offer. He seems to be the top candidate after Bauer.
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ericmvan
Veteran
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 29, 2020 12:56:33 GMT -5
There's an obvious trade target. Lance Lynn has turned into a top-of-rotation guy has a year left on his current contact at $8M ($10 AAV), and the Rangers have no chance of contending next year. But you figure that a contender with a better farm system and less cash to spend is going to outbid us.
Danny Duffy and Alex Cobb are also in their walk years, at AAV's of $13M and $14M, and would cost less than noting (e.g., also get some international money, give up Chatham, etc.). Duffy just seems to have declined into a 4th starter and would be a 4th LHP. Cobb was terrible but inconsistent, so he'd be a reclamation project ... but we have one already in Pivetta.
Chris Bassitt and Sean Manaea have two years of control left, but I wouldn't expect to win a trade with Billy Beane.
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Post by greenmonster on Sept 29, 2020 13:24:56 GMT -5
If the Sox fall short on Bauer or Gausman then Taijun Walker might be worth a look
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 29, 2020 13:32:16 GMT -5
Ozuna deserves a contract for helping the Red Sox finish in 4th instead of higher.
In all seriousness, I would be a fan of the acquisition. The Red Sox should also see if Trevor Bauer is serious about his 1-year deals and go after him. Beyond that, I'm not going to pretend to have an idea what middle reliever arms have potential that don't show up in the numbers. I just hope the Red Sox make a concentrated effort in bolstering the pen and they make the right moves. One guy I've always liked was Kirby Yates, but will he be available?
I would bring back Collin McHugh for some insurance depth as well.
Other than that, bring back Cora if that makes Xander happy and work on an extension for Devers. Not a ton needed to add as I'm starting to feel positive about this rotation with Houck, Pivetta and perhaps Groome, Eovaldi looking great, getting E-Rod and Sale back next year (albeit June for Sale), and Perez being a steady 5th starter. Adding someone like Bauer makes them that much deeper.
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Post by soxin8 on Sept 29, 2020 13:32:43 GMT -5
Definitely at the trade deadline next year we should be concerned about who will be leaving the Sox prospect list, but I would be surprised if they traded from their farm before the season started, unless it was someone they did not project to play for them. We still have the dream of adding to the farm through trades that include big money contracts other teams want to unload. It just doesn't look like that will be SD after the year Myers had.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 29, 2020 14:04:21 GMT -5
All of the FA SP who threw 40+ innings as a starter, plus the three interesting guys in their walk year.
The difference between my pERA and Statcast's xERA is cheap hits. Statcast includes whether you prevented them or gave them up. Is that a skill? I don't know. Hence I've averaged them.
Name pERA xERA Ave Trevor Bauer 2.50 2.17 2.34 Kevin Gausman 3.38 3.49 3.44 Lance Lynn 3.74 3.26 3.50 (trade) J.A. Happ 4.01 3.28 3.65 L Masahiro Tanaka 4.64 4.01 4.33 Adam Wainwright 4.30 4.52 4.41 Danny Duffy 4.44 4.64 4.54 L (trade) Mike Minor 5.04 4.21 4.62 L Garre. Richards 4.79 4.55 4.67 Taijuan Walker 4.54 4.87 4.70 Mike Fiers 5.02 4.71 4.86 Rick Porcello 4.70 5.25 4.98 Brett Anderson 5.18 4.81 5.00 L Alex Cobb 6.25 6.04 6.15 (trade) With all the pitching in the pipeline I don't think it makes sense to go after Gausman.
The guy who really interests me is Tanaka, a guy who has always seemed to me capable of being better than he has been. He's looked great sometimes and awful at others. If they think they can tweak Wainwright's approach, that would be solid. At his age (39 next year) you can get him for a year plus an option.
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Post by redsoxpride34 on Sept 29, 2020 14:06:20 GMT -5
One name that has not gotten much attention who could be our best potential option is Nick Castellanos of the reds. He has an opt out this offseason and could hit the market. He currently has 3 years left on his deal which will pay him $52 million over the duration including $16 million each next year and the year after. The last season of the deal will pay him $20 million. He's 28 heading into his age 29 season. Plays RF/3B/1B so would give the sox some nice positional flexibility. Hits lots of doubles (58 last year) and has good pop from the right side. Would prefer him over ozuna who is a year older as well.
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