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2021 Spring Training
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 29, 2021 16:05:46 GMT -5
announcement on EEI radio broadcast: Barnes has a "non-infectious positive test" and everyone is cleared and good to go. I'm not sure that's *quite* a meaningful phrase in the english language, but I guess the gist is that he doesn't have covid? That's likely a false positive, though there may be a reluctance to call it that.
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Post by patford on Mar 29, 2021 17:15:58 GMT -5
Days like this make me almost as bullish on Houck as Eric. His fastball looks pretty impressive. Even if his third pitch is just a show-me, his fastball/slider combo will be enough many days. It's really his fourth pitch. His two fastballs are so different from one another that they are two different pitches. If he can command his two seam and slider he's a huge problem for batters. If he can't and they can just sit on his four seam he's in trouble.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 29, 2021 17:38:40 GMT -5
I wonder how many teams have been so thoroughly overhauled for 2021? So many of these new players (like Pivetta, Marwin, Renfroe, Franchy) have not been enthusiastically welcomed by boards like this one; ditto for some returning players (like JDM, Dalbec, Perez). The sheer volume of players with upside potential seems unique to Bloom and the Sox. I recall palpable resentment that Bloom passed on so many FA’s (I.e. Morton, Kluber, Springer) and worked within the Cap space he inherited to create this unusual team. I have shared a good bit of that negativity, even prepared to cut the NESN cord if this team doesn’t compete. In terms of Eric’s list of potential performance surprises, I have already been pleasantly surprised at the performances and potentials of maybe ten of Eric’s two lists, and anticipate more. And those lists don’t include likely 2021 contributions from the minors (like Downs, Duran, Seabold, Ward, Bazardo.) as this substantially new team continues to evolve. Over this interesting Spring I have quietly been moving from disappointment to my more normal optimism about this 21st Century Red Sox team, but couldn’t quite put my finger on, as Chris Hayes would say, “Why Is This Happening.” Eric, I think, has pointed the way. For all the flaws and fragility, this is starting to emerge as a better, deeper, more talented, more competitive team than originally given credit for. Bloom and crew has done a surprisingly good job of rebuilding a last place team. Cora and crew are knitting this, to me, strangely potent new team into something dangerous and fun to watch. And IMO the competition, for all their awesomeness, are also showing the flaws and fragility previously attributed to the Sox. Thanks Eric. C’mon Thursday. Bring it on. Glad to see folks getting what's unusual about this team.
The quick answer to the "isn't this true of every team?" question is, of course it is ... but not at all.
Of course every team tries to acquire players who have a real reason why their projections may well be low.
But no, acquiring 8 guys like that from the trade deadline to the start of the next season is not normal. There just aren't that many guys like these, and case-by-case that's usually true by definition. There aren't too many guys who have an elite spin-rate pitch that for some reason they used to not throw very often even though it was their second-most effective, and which has now become an awful pitch despite maintaining the spin rate ... and who furthermore had a past peak as a borderline ace. There aren't too many career below-average relievers who in fact had been decidedly better than average when behind in the count (but relatively awful when ahead) who suddenly become the 8th best pitcher in all of MLB in the last month of the last season (and I could add further detail to that description!).
I think everyone will believe me when I say that I've done a fairly deep dive into the numbers of every significant player acquired by the Red Sox since JWH bought the team (which is when I started scoring every pitch of every possible game). I've often liked what I've seen, e.g., Pomeranz' elite splits by batting order position. But when a guy has weird-assed numbers that immediately suggest obvious upside, like being worse against 7 through 9 hitters than 1, 2, 5, and 6 (instead of much better) ... that is a rare gift. (That's Pivetta, if you've forgotten). This has happened over and over again with Bloom.
As far as I can tell, it would take a ton of manpower to do this. Just doing one player in sufficient depth, using all the available data, could take two full days, and you'd want to look at literally every single player who has underperformed their tools. The Rays pioneered this art form, and their alumni have followed suit. But the Rays don't have the money to outbid the Dodgers or Sox, and neither the Rays nor Dodgers have ever been in a rebuilding phase when they had a lot of roster spots to fill. This assemblage of upside-laden talent is probably unprecedented in MLB history, and if it succeeds, it may be a long while before we see it again.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 29, 2021 17:58:06 GMT -5
Days like this make me almost as bullish on Houck as Eric. His fastball looks pretty impressive. Even if his third pitch is just a show-me, his fastball/slider combo will be enough many days. It's pretty clear that his performance going forward is much more a function of of his DLT/DNLT ratio rather than developing the splitter. The splitter is gravy.
That, of course, is his Days Like This / Days Nothing Like This ratio.
It wouldn't surprise me if Houck gets the Brasier roster spot instead of Brewer, given the four pitchers who didn't pitch for several days.
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Post by manfred on Mar 29, 2021 18:07:15 GMT -5
Days like this make me almost as bullish on Houck as Eric. His fastball looks pretty impressive. Even if his third pitch is just a show-me, his fastball/slider combo will be enough many days. It's pretty clear that his performance going forward is much more a function of of his DLT/DNLT ratio rather than developing the splitter. The splitter is gravy.
That, of course, is his Days Like This / Days Nothing Like This ratio.
It wouldn't surprise me if Houck gets the Brasier roster spot instead of Brewer, given the four pitchers who didn't pitch for several days.
I get they want him to work on starting, but it seems like they could keep him and essentially slot him as a virtual piggyback — especially early, I can see guys going 4 innings for a host of reasons not involving getting shellacked. So have Houck come in for 3. If they are looking to compete, it seems pointless to send down a guy who is clearly better than a bunch of guys on the staff.
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Post by soxfan06 on Mar 29, 2021 19:01:26 GMT -5
It won't be long until Houck has Perez/Pivetta's rotation spot. He's just better than them.
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Post by jdog2020 on Mar 29, 2021 19:26:55 GMT -5
I'm not sure that's *quite* a meaningful phrase in the english language, but I guess the gist is that he doesn't have covid? That's likely a false positive, though there may be a reluctance to call it that. Not necessarily. Without knowing the details, that's presumptuous. Glad that he seems to be doing better. Lots of spikes in Covid. Let's stay safe. Can't wait for Thursday!!
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Post by blizzards39 on Mar 29, 2021 20:01:51 GMT -5
It won't be long until Houck has Perez/Pivetta's rotation spot. He's just better than them. I’ll be quite content if Perez starts 30 games as the 5th starter. Unlike last year when he was 1/2 all year. The Sox finally (looks like at least) have some SP depth. It has been a while.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Mar 29, 2021 20:14:53 GMT -5
They give a 99.9% probability that the Red Sox will win fewer than 81 games. That is clearly very dumb. Odds maker must be a Yankee fan....
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Post by soxinsf on Mar 29, 2021 20:52:10 GMT -5
That's likely a false positive, though there may be a reluctance to call it that. Not necessarily. Without knowing the details, that's presumptuous. Glad that he seems to be doing better. Lots of spikes in Covid. Let's stay safe. Can't wait for Thursday!! If Houck were a veteran rather than a rookie with a rough ST until now, we would all be shouting Hallelujah. But suspicions remain because he is a rookie with control issues and only two pitches. Looks like a great RP at this point, but results last summer and today are reasons for optimism that he can be effective long-term as a starter. If that is what he is expected to be , then Worcester may be the best place for him to work on a third pitch and control.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Mar 29, 2021 21:09:12 GMT -5
That's likely a false positive, though there may be a reluctance to call it that. Not necessarily. Without knowing the details, that's presumptuous. Glad that he seems to be doing better. Lots of spikes in Covid. Let's stay safe. Can't wait for Thursday!! I have hear of a single person cleared in that short of a period of time that was not a false positive and my wife is a doctor.....so the result is no restrictions on any pitchers. IMO Valdez did great last year when the Red Sox were trailing by a boat load of runs, but when he got in high leverage situations he blew up and his WHIP went to an untenable 1.61. I do not see him or Brewer being close to some of the alternatives! The only reason I can possibly see Brewer making the mlb RS (and not AAA) is so he can be DFAed when Brasier comes off the DL/IL.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Mar 29, 2021 21:10:19 GMT -5
Not necessarily. Without knowing the details, that's presumptuous. Glad that he seems to be doing better. Lots of spikes in Covid. Let's stay safe. Can't wait for Thursday!! I have hear of a single person cleared in that short of a period of time that was not a false positive and my wife is a doctor.....so the result is no restrictions on any pitchers. IMO Valdez did great last year when the Red Sox were trailing by a boat load of runs, but when he got in high leverage situations he blew up and his WHIP went to an untenable 1.61. I do not see him or Brewer being close to some of the alternatives! The only reason I can possibly see Brewer making the mlb RS (and not AAA) is so he can be DFAed when Brasier comes off the DL/IL. I have *not* heard
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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 29, 2021 21:51:56 GMT -5
That's likely a false positive, though there may be a reluctance to call it that. Not necessarily. Without knowing the details, that's presumptuous. Glad that he seems to be doing better. Lots of spikes in Covid. Let's stay safe. Can't wait for Thursday!! Yeah, agreed. It could easily have been called a false positive. Whatever, it's a "positive" for the Sox. Let's hope that recent Covid spikes related to more pernicious variants don't impact a second consecutive season. We are all more than ready to get past this issue. I am looking forward to having my second shot tomorrow and hope to attend some games this summer.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 29, 2021 22:46:17 GMT -5
Not necessarily. Without knowing the details, that's presumptuous. Glad that he seems to be doing better. Lots of spikes in Covid. Let's stay safe. Can't wait for Thursday!! I have hear of a single person cleared in that short of a period of time that was not a false positive and my wife is a doctor.....so the result is no restrictions on any pitchers. IMO Valdez did great last year when the Red Sox were trailing by a boat load of runs, but when he got in high leverage situations he blew up and his WHIP went to an untenable 1.61. I do not see him or Brewer being close to some of the alternatives! The only reason I can possibly see Brewer making the mlb RS (and not AAA) is so he can be DFAed when Brasier comes off the DL/IL. Department of correlation is not causation ... Valdez was really good early on and got promoted to higher leverage. At that point, the league had him figured out and he got killed, and/or he had fatigue.
He was actually really good in his first two high leverage games, at the end of August. Then he got killed in three straight ones, and got largely demoted from that role ... but was decent in his last high-lev outing, on 9/13 in Tampa, while still getting pounded in garbage time.
His R/100 pitches in August and September: his sinker (43%, then 48%) went from -0.88 to -1.86, but his changeup (50%, then 49%; the balance is his slider, which got killed) went from +3.14 to -2.80. He probably lost some command on the latter from overwork, but there's a strong suggestion in his game log that hitters facing him the second time had the changeup figured out. That's just based on on his decline in effectiveness game-by-game against opponents.
He still seems to me to be a nice find as an up-and-down guy. If I'm right about his being much more effective against guys who have never seen him, then they know that and can use him accordingly if he's the last man in the pen.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 29, 2021 23:18:26 GMT -5
From the Chatham thread:
It's a delight of baseball that a single swing can be meaningful.
Scouting report here: "Present power is below-average. ... Needs to add strength and put more charge into the ball on offense in order to excel at higher levels."
Done that. My best guess on the EV for that bomb is 110 mph.
I actually think Arauz presents a tasty and intriguing emergency SS option.
BTW, that video also features Eck in vintage form, and if you let it play, you'll get Puello's second HR. Another guy that I think represents really good organizational depth.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 30, 2021 2:04:42 GMT -5
Araúz may not have quite the shine of Whitlock, but I think he's got about as high a ceiling as you'll find on this year's AAA roster. Good defender at three positions and it looks as if we can't sleep on the bat either. That blast was an eye opener. The FO has pulled two rabbits out of the Rule 5 hat.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 30, 2021 3:32:09 GMT -5
Araúz may not have quite the shine of Whitlock, but I think he's got about as high a ceiling as you'll find on this year's AAA roster. Good defender at three positions and it looks as if we can't sleep on the bat either. That blast was an eye opener. The FO has pulled two rabbits out of the Rule 5 hat. He had an MLB-average-for-a SS OBP. At age 21. With just 119 PA above high-A. I think his tools impressed everyone last year, and he seems to be both a learner and a hard worker. I'm looking forward to the next set of rankings and his updated scouting report.
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Post by unitspin on Mar 30, 2021 5:05:15 GMT -5
It won't be long until Houck has Perez/Pivetta's rotation spot. He's just better than them. Perez is the only pitcher on the staff that averages over 150+ innings a year, who exactly is eating those innings up? Are we under the assumption that bullpen arms are going to eat 100ip this year, otherwise id say perez staying put in the rotation barring injuries is the one thing you can count on.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 30, 2021 6:08:38 GMT -5
It won't be long until Houck has Perez/Pivetta's rotation spot. He's just better than them. Why do people think only the good Houck is going to show up if he pitches in Boston? Isn't it more likely that the guy we saw in the last game will continue to Jekyll-Hyde with the guy who gave up 10 walks in six innings? I have great hope for him, but I think he requires patience.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 30, 2021 6:13:10 GMT -5
Araúz may not have quite the shine of Whitlock, but I think he's got about as high a ceiling as you'll find on this year's AAA roster. Good defender at three positions and it looks as if we can't sleep on the bat either. That blast was an eye opener. The FO has pulled two rabbits out of the Rule 5 hat. He had an MLB-average-for-a SS OBP. At age 21. With just 119 PA above high-A. I think his tools impressed everyone last year, and he seems to be both a learner and a hard worker. I'm looking forward to the next set of rankings and his updated scouting report. Yeah I don't know why people were not not more excited by last year, at least for the future. There is talk that he "Lacks ability to make adjustments over the course of a game" (this site), and this could be an ongoing thing, but I don't see why he is not a strong candidate to be valuable at least as a cheap UTIL and maybe as a starter in the middle. "Needs to add strength and put more charge into the ball on offense in order to excel at higher levels"? Check.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Mar 30, 2021 6:52:21 GMT -5
It won't be long until Houck has Perez/Pivetta's rotation spot. He's just better than them. Why do people think only the good Houck is going to show up if he pitches in Boston? Isn't it more likely that the guy we saw in the last game will continue to Jekyll-Hyde with the guy who gave up 10 walks in six innings? I have great hope for him, but I think he requires patience. I don't think any serious fan thinks Houck will be "on" every time out, as in sporting the 94-6mph FB and locating the slider spot on. It's more of look at the rotation as it currently sits, minus Chris Sale.. It's "hope" this and "hope" for that. We can be pretty sure of *1* member of the 5, being Martin Perez as a consistent, back end starter, which is usually good enough, but right now? Boston needs a 2019 Eduardo Rodriquez, or a mid 2010's Garret Richards to anchor down the top spot and there are no signs of that happening, same with Eovaldi being consistent from game to game. Maybe it all starts fresh come Thursday and these inconsistencies go away, but picking on the Houck walks early, while turning a blind eye to 4 others who had issues is overlooking a problem waiting to happen.
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Post by patford on Mar 30, 2021 8:16:33 GMT -5
Someone explain to me why Houck is described as having only two pitches (FB and Slider) while Chris Sale's two seam FB is described as a sinker? This particularly odd as it seems to me (am I seeing things?) that Houck's two seam FB (his sinker) has more movement than Sale's.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 30, 2021 8:21:40 GMT -5
Someone explain to me why Houck is described as having only two pitches (FB and Slider) while Chris Sale's two seam FB is described as a sinker? This particularly odd as it seems to me (am I seeing things?) that Houck's two seam FB (his sinker) has more movement than Sale's. With all due respect to Houck, who I like, I think it's because Sale's four-seamer is good? Houck has four pitches (he also can throw a splitter), but basically two that can get major league hitters out and two others that he can throw sometimes to keep guys off-balance if he's working as a starter. So Houck's sinking fastball is colloquially his fastball whereas Sale's is called a sinker to differentiate it. EDIT: Sinker/slider guys who didn't throw a traditional four-seamer were not that rare even 15 years ago, and generally those were called sinkers, and "two-seamer" has become the much more common term.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 30, 2021 8:34:29 GMT -5
So the diagnosis on Barnes is probably not actually verbal gobbledegook but means something, apparently that he did have some of the virus in him, but it was non-infectious. So, not a false positive, not a negative. (I am not a scientist, just a philologist googling) "Biologists can tell if the virus is infectious by injecting it into cells (culture cells). If these cells are not affected by the virus and the virus does not reproduce in them, then the PCR test found a virus that is no longer active. The meaning is that the PCR positive is a non-infectious positive." www.cebm.net/covid-19/pcr-positives-what-do-they-mean/
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 30, 2021 10:08:26 GMT -5
It won't be long until Houck has Perez/Pivetta's rotation spot. He's just better than them. Why do people think only the good Houck is going to show up if he pitches in Boston? Isn't it more likely that the guy we saw in the last game will continue to Jekyll-Hyde with the guy who gave up 10 walks in six innings? I have great hope for him, but I think he requires patience. Yes, exactly. His control is spotty, to be kind. He's going to have those games where he lasts 2 innings because he walked 5 guys. He'll have flashes of dominance, too. I think he's better served working on his control issues at AAA. Honestly I think the Sox will get bigger contributions from Whitlock and Seabold as far as the rotation is concerned. Those two guys are strike throwers. Houck has a higher ceiling if he can conquer his control issues, but you just never know if he will or won't. At worst, I think he can be an effective high leverage reliever, but to make it as a starter he has to be a lot more consistent throwing strikes.
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