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Benintendi traded to KC in 3-way deal w/ NYM
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 7, 2021 10:58:05 GMT -5
For all the "dismantling the 2018 outfield of Benintendi/Bradley/Betts" distress, Bradley is 1/16 with 7 Ks Benintendi is 3/18 with 1 walk and 5 ks. (and Betts has only 1 RBI /ducks) The volatility does suggest that not getting locked into players for a long time, like TB has done, may be the better route. Get a couple good years out of a guy, then move him. I have been pretty open about hating the Rays’ never-win-a-ring model. Looking at this team the last two days, I am shocked they were in the series last year. It doesn’t look like they’ll be back for a while. But if the Sox follow that model fully, they trade X instead of paying him, let ERod walk, and trade Devers in the next few years. Then they plug in... who? Letting Beni and JBJ go might work as practical matters — though let’s face it, letting go of guys who aren’t going to help only to replace them with Renfroe et al is not *improving* — but it doesn’t provide a rule to follow. If the Rays made money, would they still be constant sellers? Is it strategy or necessity? The Rays model isn't what the Red Sox are trying to emulate, though. It's the Dodgers model. The Rays can't even carry the current payroll the Sox are carrying. As far as winning the World Series? I mean, if Kevin Cash hadn't pulled Snell, who knows what would have happened in a Game 7? I don't think the Rays model precludes them from winning a World Series. What it does preclude them from doing is retaining any significant number of core players or investing in a long-term deal like the Sox did with Manny or like the Yankees did with Cole and Stanton, nor can they pay a Bauer $40 million/year or whatever it is. The Red Sox are not the Rays. They're only going to spend the big bucks when they have a team that is at the point of serious contention, not at a place of "if this goes right and that goes right, then maybe...." like they are now. Manfred, you got four of us posters to respond to your post at basically the same time. I guess that's an accomplishment!
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Post by manfred on Apr 7, 2021 11:18:30 GMT -5
To be clear: I am not saying that the Sox *are* going full Rays... so I agree with those who said that. I think they’ll keep X, for one small non-Ray example.
I also get both the Beni trade and JBJ walking... it sucks, but I’m not so much into loyalty that I’m not ok with it.
My main point was that those two very specific moves shouldn’t viewed as “the Rays model” — they are basic baseball decisions. And I *do* (and have) objected to what they’ve done in place of the 2018 OF. Moving on can be the right thing and still have what you move on TO be a bad idea. Right now, I see an organization that might be clever in how it strips but has not been as good in how it builds. I didn’t like many of the additions, and this far few have been good. It is obviously super early, so maybe Kiké wins MVP and Richards Cy Young for all we know.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 7, 2021 12:12:34 GMT -5
To be clear: I am not saying that the Sox *are* going full Rays... so I agree with those who said that. I think they’ll keep X, for one small non-Ray example. I also get both the Beni trade and JBJ walking... it sucks, but I’m not so much into loyalty that I’m not ok with it. My main point was that those two very specific moves shouldn’t viewed as “the Rays model” — they are basic baseball decisions. And I *do* (and have) objected to what they’ve done in place of the 2018 OF. Moving on can be the right thing and still have what you move on TO be a bad idea. Right now, I see an organization that might be clever in how it strips but has not been as good in how it builds. I didn’t like many of the additions, and this far few have been good. It is obviously super early, so maybe Kiké wins MVP and Richards Cy Young for all we know. Honestly I'm not sure if even X winds up staying. I mean, how many viable seasons at SS does X have left? I'm sure the Sox will try to extend him IF Devers doesn't display the aptitude to be a long-term 3b and can put up seasons like 2019. In other words I can see the Sox committing long-term to either X or Devers, but as a 3b, which Devers is already. If X is looking for Lindor money, I highly doubt Bloom offers it. If X opts out, maybe the Sox make a 6 year $150 million offer to him, but if he's looking at 30 million plus, then I think he's gone. And if Bogaerts is re-signed it'll be with an understanding that he'll be at 3b for the majority of his new deal. X might be a guy who's willing to bend if the Sox bend a bit, so if anybody does get extended it's X. If Devers hits like a monster from here on in, to the point where defense isn't that big a deal, then the Sox extension offer is for that of a DH, which is lesser and it'll be up to Devers if he would be willing to take it. But if he isn't hitting a ton, then I don't see him being a guy they go long-term with. And that's kind of the thing with the Red Sox right now. There's not many guys on the roster worth breaking the bank for. I do think they extend Vazquez because he made it clear he wants to remain with the Sox, so I think he'll get a raise but it won't be crazy and he'll wind up an "overpaid" backup catcher, which is a role he'd excel in, down the road, and be "underpaid" while he is still a solid regular catcher. I think they can make it work. Maybe they approach Verdugo, but he's not a guy that's a superstar so I don't see any crazy money being thrown his way. Probably the guy they might wind up trying to throw big bucks his way if he winds up as hoped for will be Casas, but that's a long way down the road. So it might make them look like Tampa where there's no huge commitment, but that's kind of where they are in their cycle right now. It'll change in the next few years.
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 7, 2021 15:36:50 GMT -5
The players Sox got rid of outside betts were replacement level players. When you don’t get locked into those players it’s a win ( and yes it’s debatable if Bradley and benetendi are only replacement level). By replacement I mean they can be replaced in a given off season cheaper than what they cost through trade free agency or minor league depth. Now betts isn’t replacement level.
I think Xander is in same boat. So then it becomes can we sign this guy who in next 3-4-5 years won’t be a replacement level player. Which depends on that given players wants for a contract.
Xander could possibly be a replacement level player. ( Baez, Correa, Seager). Again there is arguments to be made that’s no where near the case but that’s bloom and managements reason they are paid what they are paid.
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Post by manfred on Apr 7, 2021 15:59:41 GMT -5
The players Sox got rid of outside betts were replacement level players. When you don’t get locked into those players it’s a win ( and yes it’s debatable if Bradley and benetendi are only replacement level). By replacement I mean they can be replaced in a given off season cheaper than what they cost through trade free agency or minor league depth. Now betts isn’t replacement level. I think Xander is in same boat. So then it becomes can we sign this guy who in next 3-4-5 years won’t be a replacement level player. Which depends on that given players wants for a contract. Xander could possibly be a replacement level player. ( Baez, Correa, Seager). Again there is arguments to be made that’s no where near the case but that’s bloom and managements reason they are paid what they are paid. Wait if you are excluding Betts, Beni, and JBJ, who do you mean?
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 7, 2021 16:11:33 GMT -5
The players Sox got rid of outside betts were replacement level players. When you don’t get locked into those players it’s a win ( and yes it’s debatable if Bradley and benetendi are only replacement level). By replacement I mean they can be replaced in a given off season cheaper than what they cost through trade free agency or minor league depth. Now betts isn’t replacement level. I think Xander is in same boat. So then it becomes can we sign this guy who in next 3-4-5 years won’t be a replacement level player. Which depends on that given players wants for a contract. Xander could possibly be a replacement level player. ( Baez, Correa, Seager). Again there is arguments to be made that’s no where near the case but that’s bloom and managements reason they are paid what they are paid. Wait if you are excluding Betts, Beni, and JBJ, who do you mean? I’m NOT excluding Beni or JBJ. I think they were replacement level. Betts not so much
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Post by manfred on Apr 7, 2021 16:13:28 GMT -5
Wait if you are excluding Betts, Beni, and JBJ, who do you mean? I’m NOT excluding Beni or JBJ. I think they were replacement level. Betts not so much Ah... I took debatable as setting them aside.
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 7, 2021 16:18:11 GMT -5
I’m NOT excluding Beni or JBJ. I think they were replacement level. Betts not so much Ah... I took debatable as setting them aside. Na. Just could see others saying they were super studs for whatever reason. I think players like Bradley tie teams up in salary hell especially if they want increasingly large contracts for more years. At benetendi’s production he is or was headed that way also; although he only was getting 1 year deals which allowed him to be traded for 5 prospects/young players
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Apr 7, 2021 16:20:36 GMT -5
The players Sox got rid of outside betts were replacement level players. When you don’t get locked into those players it’s a win ( and yes it’s debatable if Bradley and benetendi are only replacement level). By replacement I mean they can be replaced in a given off season cheaper than what they cost through trade free agency or minor league depth. Now betts isn’t replacement level. I think Xander is in same boat. So then it becomes can we sign this guy who in next 3-4-5 years won’t be a replacement level player. Which depends on that given players wants for a contract. Xander could possibly be a replacement level player. ( Baez, Correa, Seager). Again there is arguments to be made that’s no where near the case but that’s bloom and managements reason they are paid what they are paid. Beni's performance deteriorated badly toward the end of 2019 and in his short 2020, but he was not a replacement level player for his career. Bradley wasn't either. They were both far above that. A RLP is an extremely bad MLB player. Pablo Sandoval approximated a RLP in 2015 (he was actually -.5, B-Ref), his one full year with us, and he needed a .658 OPS over 505 PAs, crap defense and about 40 extra pounds on his fat butt to get there. Your definition of a RLP - a guy who is more expensive in FA - applies to nearly everyone in MLB. (That's if I'm understanding your definition correctly. It's not real clear to me.)
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Apr 7, 2021 16:39:34 GMT -5
To be clear: I am not saying that the Sox *are* going full Rays... so I agree with those who said that. I think they’ll keep X, for one small non-Ray example. I also get both the Beni trade and JBJ walking... it sucks, but I’m not so much into loyalty that I’m not ok with it. My main point was that those two very specific moves shouldn’t viewed as “the Rays model” — they are basic baseball decisions. And I *do* (and have) objected to what they’ve done in place of the 2018 OF. Moving on can be the right thing and still have what you move on TO be a bad idea. Right now, I see an organization that might be clever in how it strips but has not been as good in how it builds. I didn’t like many of the additions, and this far few have been good. It is obviously super early, so maybe Kiké wins MVP and Richards Cy Young for all we know. Honestly I'm not sure if even X winds up staying. I mean, how many viable seasons at SS does X have left? I'm sure the Sox will try to extend him IF Devers doesn't display the aptitude to be a long-term 3b and can put up seasons like 2019. In other words I can see the Sox committing long-term to either X or Devers, but as a 3b, which Devers is already. If X is looking for Lindor money, I highly doubt Bloom offers it. If X opts out, maybe the Sox make a 6 year $150 million offer to him, but if he's looking at 30 million plus, then I think he's gone. And if Bogaerts is re-signed it'll be with an understanding that he'll be at 3b for the majority of his new deal. X might be a guy who's willing to bend if the Sox bend a bit, so if anybody does get extended it's X. If Devers hits like a monster from here on in, to the point where defense isn't that big a deal, then the Sox extension offer is for that of a DH, which is lesser and it'll be up to Devers if he would be willing to take it. But if he isn't hitting a ton, then I don't see him being a guy they go long-term with. I agree with just about all of this and I think it could be a thread of its own: The Future at the IF Corners. I can't imagine that CB commits long-term to both X and Devers and sticks with that poor defensive left side. The potential development of Casas and Bobby Bombs further adds to the logjam. So, what are the options? You could make Devers a DH and move X to 3B. But that heavily reduces the value of both players. They could probably both do better on the FA market. Or you could move on from one or both players. That's what I expect to happen. Unless Devers is willing to sign a team-friendly deal, I think CB will move him for a solid prospect return. Being the forward-planning executive that he is, he'll make this trade next off-season, I think. He'll get a better return after 2021 than by waiting until after 2022, when Devers will have only one year of control left. I think X will also have to accept a reasonable contract to stay. If he's going to demand Lindor money, he's not getting it here as a SS and certainly not as a 3B.
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Post by foreverred9 on Apr 7, 2021 16:52:01 GMT -5
Here's how I think of the Rays vs. Red Sox...
The Red Sox should go full Rays on the 17 roster spots that are filled by your standard-type player. But unlike the Rays, we have the flexibility to give out eight 8-figure salaries each year and stay under the cap (9-10 in years we go over), and it's those positions that we need to do a much better job optimizing. Xander and Devers should absolutely be 2 of those 8 contracts.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 11, 2021 2:38:25 GMT -5
Top 5 hits by Win Probability Added comparison:
.200 Franchy's pinch-hit 1B tonight .124 Franchy's RBI single in the 6th on Thursday .095 Franchy's RBI 2B off of Wacha in the 2nd, giving the Sox a 1-0 lead .047 Franchy's 2B off of Glasnow in the 3rd .042 Benny with a first-inning GB single with 0 outs and a man on 1st, off of Kyle Gibson
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 11, 2021 13:19:30 GMT -5
The players Sox got rid of outside betts were replacement level players. When you don’t get locked into those players it’s a win ( and yes it’s debatable if Bradley and benetendi are only replacement level). By replacement I mean they can be replaced in a given off season cheaper than what they cost through trade free agency or minor league depth. Now betts isn’t replacement level. I think Xander is in same boat. So then it becomes can we sign this guy who in next 3-4-5 years won’t be a replacement level player. Which depends on that given players wants for a contract. Xander could possibly be a replacement level player. ( Baez, Correa, Seager). Again there is arguments to be made that’s no where near the case but that’s bloom and managements reason they are paid what they are paid. Beni's performance deteriorated badly toward the end of 2019 and in his short 2020, but he was not a replacement level player for his career. Bradley wasn't either. They were both far above that. A RLP is an extremely bad MLB player. Pablo Sandoval approximated a RLP in 2015 (he was actually -.5, B-Ref), his one full year with us, and he needed a .658 OPS over 505 PAs, crap defense and about 40 extra pounds on his fat butt to get there. Your definition of a RLP - a guy who is more expensive in FA - applies to nearly everyone in MLB. (That's if I'm understanding your definition correctly. It's not real clear to me.) I’m defining replacement level player as a player who through free agency, trade, or minor league call up, can be replaced that offseason easily. ( at same or below that salary rate) Benetendi over last 2 years has been easily replaced. And Jackie Bradley for sure has been as a hitter. I agree he’s elite defender but his production as a hitter hasn’t been the best
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 11, 2021 13:26:03 GMT -5
Please use another term. It has a very specific meaning.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 11, 2021 13:42:35 GMT -5
I mean, that's basically what the actual "replacement-level player" is supposed to be though and it's what WAR/WARP seek to measure (taking out the salary piece).
Last year and this year in a stupidly small sample size of 20 games, yes, Benintendi has been just below replacement level (-0.1 bWAR, -0.5 fWAR). But again, we're talking 20 games so I'm not sure what the point is. (And if this meant 2019 and 2020 it's also wrong - he was roughly a 2 win player in 2019.)
But to say Bradley has been replacement level on offense - again, WAR is using your definition, dyoungteach - is simply wrong: 2.0 oWAR on BRef each year from 2016-18, then 1.6 oWAR last year which is more than 4 WAR if prorated. Would back it up with FG but they don't have an offense vs. replacement metric far as I can tell ("Off" is above or below average, not replacement level).
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 11, 2021 14:21:54 GMT -5
I mean, that's basically what the actual "replacement-level player" is supposed to be though and it's what WAR/WARP seek to measure (taking out the salary piece). Last year and this year in a stupidly small sample size of 20 games, yes, Benintendi has been just below replacement level (-0.1 bWAR, -0.5 fWAR). But again, we're talking 20 games so I'm not sure what the point is. (And if this meant 2019 and 2020 it's also wrong - he was roughly a 2 win player in 2019.) But to say Bradley has been replacement level on offense - again, WAR is using your definition, dyoungteach - is simply wrong: 2.0 oWAR on BRef each year from 2016-18, then 1.6 oWAR last year which is more than 4 WAR if prorated. Would back it up with FG but they don't have an offense vs. replacement metric far as I can tell ("Off" is above or below average, not replacement level). I guess I’ll argue this. Kiki Hernandez has been a better player than Jackie Bradley and their salaries are roughly the same. ( I believe Kiki is actually cheaper ). So ..... Jackie is a replacement level player as proven by they just replaced him pretty easily for less. ($5 million per season less to be exact)
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Post by Jimmy on Apr 11, 2021 14:30:38 GMT -5
I mean, that's basically what the actual "replacement-level player" is supposed to be though and it's what WAR/WARP seek to measure (taking out the salary piece). Last year and this year in a stupidly small sample size of 20 games, yes, Benintendi has been just below replacement level (-0.1 bWAR, -0.5 fWAR). But again, we're talking 20 games so I'm not sure what the point is. (And if this meant 2019 and 2020 it's also wrong - he was roughly a 2 win player in 2019.) But to say Bradley has been replacement level on offense - again, WAR is using your definition, dyoungteach - is simply wrong: 2.0 oWAR on BRef each year from 2016-18, then 1.6 oWAR last year which is more than 4 WAR if prorated. Would back it up with FG but they don't have an offense vs. replacement metric far as I can tell ("Off" is above or below average, not replacement level). I guess Iâll argue this. Kiki Hernandez has been a better player than Jackie Bradley and their salaries are roughly the same. ( I believe Kiki is actually cheaper ). So ..... Jackie is a replacement level player as proven by they just replaced him pretty easily for less. ($5 million per season less to be exact) Replacement level player has nothing to do with salary. I think what youâre trying to say is that Kiké is simply a better player for the price (in your opinion). If you lost Mookie in FA and were able to sign Mike Trout for $1M less AAV, would you call Mookie a replacement level player?
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Post by ajs1994 on Apr 11, 2021 14:36:19 GMT -5
I mean, that's basically what the actual "replacement-level player" is supposed to be though and it's what WAR/WARP seek to measure (taking out the salary piece). Last year and this year in a stupidly small sample size of 20 games, yes, Benintendi has been just below replacement level (-0.1 bWAR, -0.5 fWAR). But again, we're talking 20 games so I'm not sure what the point is. (And if this meant 2019 and 2020 it's also wrong - he was roughly a 2 win player in 2019.) But to say Bradley has been replacement level on offense - again, WAR is using your definition, dyoungteach - is simply wrong: 2.0 oWAR on BRef each year from 2016-18, then 1.6 oWAR last year which is more than 4 WAR if prorated. Would back it up with FG but they don't have an offense vs. replacement metric far as I can tell ("Off" is above or below average, not replacement level). I guess Iâll argue this. Kiki Hernandez has been a better player than Jackie Bradley and their salaries are roughly the same. ( I believe Kiki is actually cheaper ). So ..... Jackie is a replacement level player as proven by they just replaced him pretty easily for less. ($5 million per season less to be exact) library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/replacement-level/Above is a link to how replacement level is understood in baseball, how much better a player is than a minimum salary level free agent (think along the lines of Michael Gettys). I do think what you're discussing is interesting, but it's more of the opportunity cost of signing JBJ. With budget constraints considered, probably means no Kiké and another piece (Marwin Gonzalez maybe?). So perhaps signing JBJ wasn't in the best interest of this team, but JBJ is not a replacement level offensive player, he's much better than Michael Gettys.
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 11, 2021 15:22:37 GMT -5
I guess Iâll argue this. Kiki Hernandez has been a better player than Jackie Bradley and their salaries are roughly the same. ( I believe Kiki is actually cheaper ). So ..... Jackie is a replacement level player as proven by they just replaced him pretty easily for less. ($5 million per season less to be exact) Replacement level player has nothing to do with salary. I think what youâre trying to say is that Kiké is simply a better player for the price (in your opinion). If you lost Mookie in FA and were able to sign Mike Trout for $1M less AAV, would you call Mookie a replacement level player? Yes. I’m saying player can be replaced easily that offseason for equal or less money and I’m arguing those players you don’t over extend for. Betts is an example of a player who isn’t easily replaced and is more of your “core” player that you extend another year or extra few million because they are tougher to replace
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 11, 2021 15:24:48 GMT -5
I guess Iâll argue this. Kiki Hernandez has been a better player than Jackie Bradley and their salaries are roughly the same. ( I believe Kiki is actually cheaper ). So ..... Jackie is a replacement level player as proven by they just replaced him pretty easily for less. ($5 million per season less to be exact) library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/replacement-level/Above is a link to how replacement level is understood in baseball, how much better a player is than a minimum salary level free agent (think along the lines of Michael Gettys). I do think what you're discussing is interesting, but it's more of the opportunity cost of signing JBJ. With budget constraints considered, probably means no Kiké and another piece (Marwin Gonzalez maybe?). So perhaps signing JBJ wasn't in the best interest of this team, but JBJ is not a replacement level offensive player, he's much better than Michael Gettys. Fair enough. People can supplement whatever term they want. Maybe “core player” is a better term Anyways. I doubt I’m the only one patiently waiting to hear who the ptbnl are in this trade
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Post by foreverred9 on Apr 11, 2021 15:31:06 GMT -5
Replacement level player has nothing to do with salary. I think what youâre trying to say is that Kiké is simply a better player for the price (in your opinion). If you lost Mookie in FA and were able to sign Mike Trout for $1M less AAV, would you call Mookie a replacement level player? Yes. I’m saying player can be replaced easily that offseason for equal or less money and I’m arguing those players you don’t over extend for. Betts is an example of a player who isn’t easily replaced and is more of your “core” player that you extend another year or extra few million because they are tougher to replace Just stop using the term "replacement level" and your point is valid. Use "upgradeable", anything but the term that for the past 20-years means 0 WAR.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Apr 11, 2021 16:22:14 GMT -5
Wasn't their a deadline for us to name the PTBNL after we scouted them? I feel like it's coming up.
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Post by Jimmy on Apr 11, 2021 16:25:05 GMT -5
Wasn't their a deadline for us to name the PTBNL after we scouted them? I feel like it's coming up. 1 month into the minor league season
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Apr 11, 2021 16:25:05 GMT -5
Wasn't their a deadline for us to name the PTBNL after we scouted them? I feel like it's coming up. It's a month or two after the start of minor league season I believe was reported.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 11, 2021 16:35:07 GMT -5
PTBNL deadline is always 6 months. The understanding here is the Sox had a list and would spend a month or two scouting them.
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