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Chaim Bloom and the Red Sox Rebuild
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Post by saltalamacchia4mvp on Oct 19, 2021 13:13:30 GMT -5
Those contracts don't exist in a vacuum. Albies and Acuña will be peaking years from now and likely watching lesser talents making 2 to 3 times more. That can lead to the sort of bitterness that doesn't exactly help team building. Acuña for example is already worth over twice as much as he's being paid. That disparity will only be greater five years from now with the paycheck worth even less. The narrative only works for the Braves if you assume players stay uninformed about their situation. They don't. Yes, but at the end of the day the agents works for the player. When you're 20 and a team offers you 12 million a year for a decade it can be hard to pass up. You can make money immediately and set up your family for life as many players grew up in poverty and the offer of security for their familiy means everything - and you don't have to worry about injury. I always feel like it's at least worth a try....
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Post by incandenza on Oct 19, 2021 13:16:18 GMT -5
Remember a couple years ago, when Cashman had that great run of picking up guys out of nowhere who suddenly performed like all-stars in New York - Urshela, Voit, LeMahieu - and it was completely maddening?
Imagine how Yankees fans must feel about Bloom scooping up Kiké, Renfroe... and Whitlock.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 19, 2021 13:19:03 GMT -5
Red Sox wins per year during the Theo Epstein era: - 2003: 95 (lost ALCS)
- 2004: 98 (won World Series)
- 2005: 95 (lost ALDS)
- 2006: 86
- 2007: 96 (won World Series)
- 2008: 96 (lost ALCS)
- 2009: 95 (lost ALDS)
- 2010: 89
- 2011: 90
Nearly a decade averaging 93+ wins, making the playoffs six of nine years (it'd be more under the current two Wild Card system), seems like exactly what Bloom and the ownership group are aiming for.
2016 — 93 wins, 1st in the East. 2017 — 93 wins, 1st in the East. 2018 — 108 wins, WS. 2019 — 84 wins 2020 — * 2021 — 92 wins, TBD Seems like Bloom finds himself in the middle of a similar stretch. Of course, he wasn’t fired the first time his team didn’t win the AL East! The enormous difference would be if you overlaid the organization's farm system ranking with the win totals. That's not everything but "Dombrowski won a lot too" kind of ignores the complete point being made, no?
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 19, 2021 13:30:29 GMT -5
Those defensive metrics in center-field are outstanding, punching the ticket for the eye-test which he's been acing for a while. Given these metrics is their really any question who the Sox CF is next year? Does this give Duran the time he needs to develop and or does he become an asset on the trade market? I think Kiké is in Boston longer than 2022, I hope so. I think Dalbec will also be a very good trade piece once Casas is called up.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 19, 2021 13:31:16 GMT -5
Red Sox wins per year during the Theo Epstein era: - 2003: 95 (lost ALCS)
- 2004: 98 (won World Series)
- 2005: 95 (lost ALDS)
- 2006: 86
- 2007: 96 (won World Series)
- 2008: 96 (lost ALCS)
- 2009: 95 (lost ALDS)
- 2010: 89
- 2011: 90
Nearly a decade averaging 93+ wins, making the playoffs six of nine years (it'd be more under the current two Wild Card system), seems like exactly what Bloom and the ownership group are aiming for.
And it all ended when they went "all in" on AGon, Crawford and extended Beckett.
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Post by scottysmalls on Oct 19, 2021 14:03:59 GMT -5
2016 — 93 wins, 1st in the East. 2017 — 93 wins, 1st in the East. 2018 — 108 wins, WS. 2019 — 84 wins 2020 — * 2021 — 92 wins, TBD Seems like Bloom finds himself in the middle of a similar stretch. Of course, he wasn’t fired the first time his team didn’t win the AL East! The enormous difference would be if you overlaid the organization's farm system ranking with the win totals. That's not everything but "Dombrowski won a lot too" kind of ignores the complete point being made, no? I also think to just put a * on 2020 is a little misleading, sure it was a weird year but they were terrible, in large part because they had no depth, a weak farm, and no financial flexibility, which were kind of the byproducts of "going all in" for a couple years, that wasn't just a COVID thing.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 19, 2021 15:03:02 GMT -5
2016 — 93 wins, 1st in the East. 2017 — 93 wins, 1st in the East. 2018 — 108 wins, WS. 2019 — 84 wins 2020 — * 2021 — 92 wins, TBD Seems like Bloom finds himself in the middle of a similar stretch. Of course, he wasn’t fired the first time his team didn’t win the AL East! The enormous difference would be if you overlaid the organization's farm system ranking with the win totals. That's not everything but "Dombrowski won a lot too" kind of ignores the complete point being made, no? From 2003 to 2011, a total of 9 drafts, the Red Sox made 23 first round and supplemental first round picks. Nevermind the different rule during the draft money wise and the international market. Kinda hard to compare farm system rankings under a total different system no? It got to the point that Theo was trading for guys at the deadline with the plan to just get the two draft picks. You had a year with five picks, two more years with four picks each, 7 out of 9 years you had extra picks. It was brilliant, yet it gave him a massive advantage that doesn't exist right now.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 19, 2021 15:07:53 GMT -5
Red Sox wins per year during the Theo Epstein era: - 2003: 95 (lost ALCS)
- 2004: 98 (won World Series)
- 2005: 95 (lost ALDS)
- 2006: 86
- 2007: 96 (won World Series)
- 2008: 96 (lost ALCS)
- 2009: 95 (lost ALDS)
- 2010: 89
- 2011: 90
Nearly a decade averaging 93+ wins, making the playoffs six of nine years (it'd be more under the current two Wild Card system), seems like exactly what Bloom and the ownership group are aiming for.
And it all ended when they went "all in" on AGon, Crawford and extended Beckett. I think you meant to say switched out Terry Francona for Bobby Valentine!
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Post by manfred on Oct 19, 2021 15:14:28 GMT -5
2016 — 93 wins, 1st in the East. 2017 — 93 wins, 1st in the East. 2018 — 108 wins, WS. 2019 — 84 wins 2020 — * 2021 — 92 wins, TBD Seems like Bloom finds himself in the middle of a similar stretch. Of course, he wasn’t fired the first time his team didn’t win the AL East! The enormous difference would be if you overlaid the organization's farm system ranking with the win totals. That's not everything but "Dombrowski won a lot too" kind of ignores the complete point being made, no? Perhaps. But maybe these similar cycles are about what teams can expect. I mean, when Dombrowski won in 2018, the farm system might have been bare but he had a 27-year old catcher, a 25-year old ss, a 21-year old 3B, and OFs of 23, 25, 28. By *age* some of those guys could be in AAA (then what a system they’d have!). But as we have seen, they simply price out when clustered. So it may be that there will always be “bridge” periods if you have clusters of great young talent.
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Post by manfred on Oct 19, 2021 15:18:00 GMT -5
The enormous difference would be if you overlaid the organization's farm system ranking with the win totals. That's not everything but "Dombrowski won a lot too" kind of ignores the complete point being made, no? I also think to just put a * on 2020 is a little misleading, sure it was a weird year but they were terrible, in large part because they had no depth, a weak farm, and no financial flexibility, which were kind of the byproducts of "going all in" for a couple years, that wasn't just a COVID thing. Fair. But they also had bad luck (Sale hurt) and a trade that shipped their best player (runner up for MVP that year) and #2 starter… which you can say was a good move but a) wasn’t Dombrowski’s doing, and b) certainly did not help.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 19, 2021 16:06:24 GMT -5
I also think to just put a * on 2020 is a little misleading, sure it was a weird year but they were terrible, in large part because they had no depth, a weak farm, and no financial flexibility, which were kind of the byproducts of "going all in" for a couple years, that wasn't just a COVID thing. Fair. But they also had bad luck (Sale hurt) and a trade that shipped their best player (runner up for MVP that year) and #2 starter… which you can say was a good move but a) wasn’t Dombrowski’s doing, and b) certainly did not help. Don't forget no ERod due to Covid for the full season and they made the choice to get under. Bloom knew we needed pitching depth and didn't add any, then with Sale and Erod it got bad fast. So Bloom tanked the season, using it as a tryout year. Holding back Houck likely for service time and to get a better pick. It deserves an asterisk.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 19, 2021 16:15:10 GMT -5
Fair. But they also had bad luck (Sale hurt) and a trade that shipped their best player (runner up for MVP that year) and #2 starter… which you can say was a good move but a) wasn’t Dombrowski’s doing, and b) certainly did not help. Don't forget no ERod due to Covid for the full season and they made the choice to get under. Bloom knew we needed pitching depth and didn't add any, then with Sale and Erod it got bad fast. So Bloom tanked the season, using it as a tryout year. Holding back Houck likely for service time and to get a better pick. It deserves an asterisk. So the Sox get Mayer and Whitlock from the Yankees in a down, dumb, who cares covid season, BRILLIANT!!
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 19, 2021 16:32:08 GMT -5
And it all ended when they went "all in" on AGon, Crawford and extended Beckett. I think you meant to say switched out Terry Francona for Bobby Valentine! Oh right, those deals didn't hurt at all. Do you remember Cherington having zero ability to make any significant moves whatsoever before the Punto trade because they were completely maxxed out on budget?
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Post by scottysmalls on Oct 19, 2021 17:01:57 GMT -5
Fair. But they also had bad luck (Sale hurt) and a trade that shipped their best player (runner up for MVP that year) and #2 starter… which you can say was a good move but a) wasn’t Dombrowski’s doing, and b) certainly did not help. Don't forget no ERod due to Covid for the full season and they made the choice to get under. Bloom knew we needed pitching depth and didn't add any, then with Sale and Erod it got bad fast. So Bloom tanked the season, using it as a tryout year. Holding back Houck likely for service time and to get a better pick. It deserves an asterisk. He tanked because he knew they were non-competitive and there was no financially viable way to make them competitive as a direct result the "all-in" decisions you are advocating for.
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Post by manfred on Oct 19, 2021 17:06:11 GMT -5
Don't forget no ERod due to Covid for the full season and they made the choice to get under. Bloom knew we needed pitching depth and didn't add any, then with Sale and Erod it got bad fast. So Bloom tanked the season, using it as a tryout year. Holding back Houck likely for service time and to get a better pick. It deserves an asterisk. So the Sox get Mayer and Whitlock from the Yankees in a down, dumb, who cares covid season, BRILLIANT!! I have no problem with the tank, and it will help. But in a sense it is my point. There may he a need to tank every ~5 years when things max out. Or, you can ride it out one more year with Betts and Price etc. Would that gave worked? Well, in hindsight, virtually no chance. But a choice was made.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 19, 2021 17:33:52 GMT -5
I think you meant to say switched out Terry Francona for Bobby Valentine! Oh right, those deals didn't hurt at all. Do you remember Cherington having zero ability to make any significant moves whatsoever before the Punto trade because they were completely maxxed out on budget? AGon was your second best full-time hitter and the reason you pulled off that trade because the Dodgers valued him so highly. Lester and Beckett both had massive down year, Beckett bam was a different player once traded and Lester also bounced back big time with a new coach. Ben made moves, they just made us worse like Reddick for Bailey trade. Sure Crawford did, so did Lackey while injured. Yet Lackey bounced back and a couple of bad deals won't sink the Red Sox. Valentine might be the worst coach in our history, yeah that had a big effect. It didn't help that Ben picked the wrong prospects in that deal either. I'd love to hear the logic with the fried chicken and beer team hiring Valentine. It's frankly not surprising at all.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 19, 2021 17:38:16 GMT -5
Don't forget no ERod due to Covid for the full season and they made the choice to get under. Bloom knew we needed pitching depth and didn't add any, then with Sale and Erod it got bad fast. So Bloom tanked the season, using it as a tryout year. Holding back Houck likely for service time and to get a better pick. It deserves an asterisk. He tanked because he knew they were non-competitive and there was no financially viable way to make them competitive as a direct result the "all-in" decisions you are advocating for. Which I'm 100% fine with, it couldn't have worked out better. Yet the team was competitive, it's our owner did a complete 180. Which he does all the time.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 19, 2021 17:42:24 GMT -5
Oh right, those deals didn't hurt at all. Do you remember Cherington having zero ability to make any significant moves whatsoever before the Punto trade because they were completely maxxed out on budget? AGon was your second best full-time hitter and the reason you pulled off that trade because the Dodgers valued him so highly. Lester and Beckett both had massive down year, Beckett bam was a different player once traded and Lester also bounced back big time with a new coach. Ben made moves, they just made us worse like Reddick for Bailey trade. Sure Crawford did, so did Lackey while injured. Yet Lackey bounced back and a couple of bad deals won't sink the Red Sox. Valentine might be the worst coach in our history, yeah that had a big effect. It didn't help that Ben picked the wrong prospects in that deal either. I'd love to hear the logic with the fried chicken and beer team hiring Valentine. It's frankly not surprising at all. OK, so you're on record as being the only Red Sox fan on the planet that thought they were in great shape for team building in 2011 and the only problem was Bobby Valentine. Here's a clue. They hired Valentine because they knew it was going to be a disaster of a season no matter who they hired. They knew they had to tear it down and didn't want to do it to someone worth a damn.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 19, 2021 17:50:08 GMT -5
So the Sox get Mayer and Whitlock from the Yankees in a down, dumb, who cares covid season, BRILLIANT!! I have no problem with the tank, and it will help. But in a sense it is my point. There may he a need to tank every ~5 years when things max out. Or, you can ride it out one more year with Betts and Price etc. Would that gave worked? Well, in hindsight, virtually no chance. But a choice was made. I actually think that with a certain amount of luck Chaim can build and maintain a perennial contender. A combination of moves that maintain a strong system like the Rays have done with a big market budget. If TBay can do it without the budget then the Sox should be even better with the ability to keep those stars. I know part of TBays success stems from trading the stars for great prospects rather than paying them but that is where the luck comes in. Just look at this years team and what they have accomplished unexpectedly, now add a healthy Chris Sale. And you know Bloom will be adding talent to the pen. Take a look at the big league roster and dream about Casas, Yorke, Mayer, Duran, Mata, Groome, Bello etc etc. What will the roster look like in a few years. I just don't want them to stay under the cap every year when they don't really have to. And that cap will be going up with the new CBA.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 19, 2021 17:58:40 GMT -5
Is 2007 the only title run that fans didn't argue over who was responsible for the team? In 04 it was fans praising the Duquette guys, in 2013 Theo got his props, in 2018 it was Cherington for hoarding young talent and maintaining flexibility for DD to spend, now we're back to DD. I can't be the only one who doesn't care about what percentage of credit each guy gets, right? Hopefully when it's all said and done, we can look back and say Bloom put together the best run of them all, because that would have to be pretty great to top what has already happened.
If you're running baseball ops for a big market team and spend a lot of resources for years, you better have positive value players left over from your tenure.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 19, 2021 18:24:30 GMT -5
I also think to just put a * on 2020 is a little misleading, sure it was a weird year but they were terrible, in large part because they had no depth, a weak farm, and no financial flexibility, which were kind of the byproducts of "going all in" for a couple years, that wasn't just a COVID thing. Fair. But they also had bad luck (Sale hurt) and a trade that shipped their best player (runner up for MVP that year) and #2 starter… which you can say was a good move but a) wasn’t Dombrowski’s doing, and b) certainly did not help. I think Rodriguez missing the year due to covid was bad luck; Sale missing the year due to TJ was a bad outcome on a risk Dombrowski took by signing a guy about whom lots of people had health concerns.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 19, 2021 18:26:14 GMT -5
Is 2007 the only title run that fans didn't argue over who was responsible for the team? In 04 it was fans praising the Duquette guys, in 2013 Theo got his props, in 2018 it was Cherington for hoarding young talent and maintaining flexibility for DD to spend, now we're back to DD. I can't be the only one who doesn't care about what percentage of credit each guy gets, right? Hopefully when it's all said and done, we can look back and say Bloom put together the best run of them all, because that would have to be pretty great to top what has already happened. If you're running baseball ops for a big market team and spend a lot of resources for years, you better have positive value players left over from your tenure. It's simply customary for every Red Sox GM to win a championship within 3 years of their arrival; that's a given. Gotta judge them by what they do after that...
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Post by manfred on Oct 19, 2021 18:44:17 GMT -5
I have no problem with the tank, and it will help. But in a sense it is my point. There may he a need to tank every ~5 years when things max out. Or, you can ride it out one more year with Betts and Price etc. Would that gave worked? Well, in hindsight, virtually no chance. But a choice was made. I actually think that with a certain amount of luck Chaim can build and maintain a perennial contender. A combination of moves that maintain a strong system like the Rays have done with a big market budget. If TBay can do it without the budget then the Sox should be even better with the ability to keep those stars. I know part of TBays success stems from trading the stars for great prospects rather than paying them but that is where the luck comes in. Just look at this years team and what they have accomplished unexpectedly, now add a healthy Chris Sale. And you know Bloom will be adding talent to the pen. Take a look at the big league roster and dream about Casas, Yorke, Mayer, Duran, Mata, Groome, Bello etc etc. What will the roster look like in a few years. I just don't want them to stay under the cap every year when they don't really have to. And that cap will be going up with the new CBA. I accept this… but I would just add I’m not sure even Tampa can do it indefinitely. I mean, for example the Archer trade is a once-in-a-lifetime fleecing. But that is not necessarily how things usually work out. So, for example, if the Sox decide they can’t resign Xander, it is hard to imagine they can equal his talent in a return in the short run. And low-level prospects are a crapshoot. Tampa’s advantage is that they *can* be bad. If trading away Snell had really hurt them, they’d shrug it off. If the Sox trade Xander this off-season, they are risking a revolt.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 19, 2021 18:59:39 GMT -5
I actually think that with a certain amount of luck Chaim can build and maintain a perennial contender. A combination of moves that maintain a strong system like the Rays have done with a big market budget. If TBay can do it without the budget then the Sox should be even better with the ability to keep those stars. I know part of TBays success stems from trading the stars for great prospects rather than paying them but that is where the luck comes in. Just look at this years team and what they have accomplished unexpectedly, now add a healthy Chris Sale. And you know Bloom will be adding talent to the pen. Take a look at the big league roster and dream about Casas, Yorke, Mayer, Duran, Mata, Groome, Bello etc etc. What will the roster look like in a few years. I just don't want them to stay under the cap every year when they don't really have to. And that cap will be going up with the new CBA. I accept this… but I would just add I’m not sure even Tampa can do it indefinitely. I mean, for example the Archer trade is a once-in-a-lifetime fleecing. But that is not necessarily how things usually work out. So, for example, if the Sox decide they can’t resign Xander, it is hard to imagine they can equal his talent in a return in the short run. And low-level prospects are a crapshoot. Tampa’s advantage is that they *can* be bad. If trading away Snell had really hurt them, they’d shrug it off. If the Sox trade Xander this off-season, they are risking a revolt. Never said it would be easy lol. I think the hardest thing to accomplish is a strong starting rotation with a true ace. If you don't develop 1 you need to either give up a lot to get 1 like Sale, which doesn't happen often. Or you hae to spend big to get 1. TBays pitching staff failed in the playoffs this year because they lacked a rotation. Of course their ace was injured. Their is a certain amount of luck. Having a great eye for talent and developing prospects is very important!!
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Oct 19, 2021 19:19:43 GMT -5
Last year the Sox were 12-27. Especially awful with those openers. About .500 with Eovaldi and Perez. Finished 12-9 when Pivetta and Hauck get added to the rotation. Doubt we’re the 4th worst team if it’s 162 games.
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