SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Chaim Bloom and the Red Sox Rebuild
|
Post by Guidas on Oct 31, 2021 9:21:57 GMT -5
His errors this year were mostly mental. He just tries to throw everyone out, and occasionally that results in balls getting away or runners advancing because he threw to the wrong base. That can certainly be fixed. The man has a career 108 OPS+ and he just had a 112 OPS+ in his age 29 season. I don't see him regressing in 2022, and I think there's a legit case for him having a stronger year next year given that he was a wreck at the plate for the first month and a half of 2021 until he changed his approach and started murdering the ball. If he continues his production from the last ~75% of 2021 into 2022 he'll have a comfortably better 2022. April through September per month .485 .938 .884 .650 1.037 .794 his career average splits .675 .921 .835 .694 .774 .819 Also his OPS+ per year 213, 96, 120, 103, 79 and 112. I think those tell a little different story. I think it's wise to simply throw out 2020 as it's 1) a short sample; 2) aberrantly mixed competition due to Covid; 3) many of the players, like the rest of us, were finding it hard to focus during Covid. There is virtually nothing representative about that season. It's an unuseful outlier.
|
|
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Oct 31, 2021 9:23:32 GMT -5
I'm not a fan of the free agent pitching class. It's mostly guys who are old enough that their contracts will be painful halfway through or guys who have major health concerns. Eduardo seems to have the best mix of health (relatively), age and stuff - so I'm worried he will become overvalued and get priced at a range the Red Sox shouldn't match. The Red Sox 4 weakest positions are LF, RF, 1B and 2B (catcher too, but not many options there). 1B - Dalbec is cheap, long-term controlled and quite impressive for most of the second half of the season, and given that Casas should debut next year, 1B isn't an area of need (aside from short-term cheap lefty to platoon). 2B - Christian Arroyo was impressive both offensively and defensively. He put up 1.2 fWAR in 1/3 of a season. I think he's a 3-war player. LF - Verdugo's defense fell-off last year and his sprint speed dropped slightly. I don't know if he's getting fat and happy or if it's a blip, but his upside isn't super high, so if they can get a starter or top-end reliever for him, I'd do it RF - Renfroe seems to be a low-end starting corner OF with 2 years of not-so-cheap control remaining. He's the easiest guy to upgrade who won't hurt long-term and they might be selling high. Let's say JD walks and the Red Sox sign Schwarber + Correa/Seager, they shift Correa to 3rd/SS, which fixes the infield defense while DHing (mostly) Schwarber. You can then try Xander or Devers in LF to see if it's a good fit, with the DH spot and Schwarber (or Dalbec) in LF - lots of options with high-end offensive output. Obviously this would be expensive and likely mean Eduardo walks and the Red Sox need to get an affordable back-end reliever and affordable starter. If you can fill one of those two holes with a Renfroe/Verdugo trade for a cost-controlled pitcher, it keeps the overall salary in-check. To me, this is the best team for short/long term which the Red Sox can put out there next year. You are entitled to your opinion but this FA pitching class is loaded with guys at every level except maybe the very top end. Which is only held back by age, Scherzer and Verlander are perennial CY Young candidates when healthy but are on the backside for sure. But even in saying that I think most expect them to still be very very good. This pitching FA class looks loaded to me. Rodon, Ray, Kershaw, Stromen, Gausmen, Thor, Gray, DeSaclafani, ERod and Grienke for starters. Then their are always BP guys available that have good track records. I am guessing that with the quality of the position player class that their won't be enough money to go around and some deals could be had. I could be off on this prediction but I see maybe 7 guys getting in excess of 25m aav. Of course their is the CBA to contend with. Names are good but all of those arms that you mentioned while pretty well known other than Descalifini all have some kind of medical issues attached to them. Tough to give someone like Thor a long term commitment. Rodon and Kershaw are looking like possible TJ candidates by mid next year. It would be smart to stay away from most of them except ERod on a QO. For bench players I think this organization should make Mark Canha a priority. Would be a massive upgrade over Shaw.
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Oct 31, 2021 10:06:43 GMT -5
His errors this year were mostly mental. He just tries to throw everyone out, and occasionally that results in balls getting away or runners advancing because he threw to the wrong base. That can certainly be fixed. The man has a career 108 OPS+ and he just had a 112 OPS+ in his age 29 season. I don't see him regressing in 2022, and I think there's a legit case for him having a stronger year next year given that he was a wreck at the plate for the first month and a half of 2021 until he changed his approach and started murdering the ball. If he continues his production from the last ~75% of 2021 into 2022 he'll have a comfortably better 2022. April through September per month .485 .938 .884 .650 1.037 .794 his career average splits .675 .921 .835 .694 .774 .819 Also his OPS+ per year 213, 96, 120, 103, 79 and 112. I think those tell a little different story. Instead of comparing his 2021 numbers to his career numbers, I'd be interested to see his 2021 compared to his pre-2021 numbers. 2021 was about 1/4 of his total career games, so it'll have a fair impact on his career totals.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Oct 31, 2021 10:16:12 GMT -5
You are entitled to your opinion but this FA pitching class is loaded with guys at every level except maybe the very top end. Which is only held back by age, Scherzer and Verlander are perennial CY Young candidates when healthy but are on the backside for sure. But even in saying that I think most expect them to still be very very good. This pitching FA class looks loaded to me. Rodon, Ray, Kershaw, Stromen, Gausmen, Thor, Gray, DeSaclafani, ERod and Grienke for starters. Then their are always BP guys available that have good track records. I am guessing that with the quality of the position player class that their won't be enough money to go around and some deals could be had. I could be off on this prediction but I see maybe 7 guys getting in excess of 25m aav. Of course their is the CBA to contend with. Names are good but all of those arms that you mentioned while pretty well known other than Descalifini all have some kind of medical issues attached to them. Tough to give someone like Thor a long term commitment. Rodon and Kershaw are looking like possible TJ candidates by mid next year. It would be smart to stay away from most of them except ERod on a QO. For bench players I think this organization should make Mark Canha a priority. Would be a massive upgrade over Shaw. The list of pitchers who were just as good if not better after TJ surgery is long. I would love to see the Sox invest in Thor, I predict a very good career from here on. The best pitcher in baseball, DeGrom, had it back in 2010.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Oct 31, 2021 10:17:11 GMT -5
But you're arguing against the stats when you say he was "clearly well above average this season." What is your basis for saying that?
The OBP thing is like a real and meaningful point that can't just be hand-waved away. The GG and SS thing is just sort of silly. The change in approach, on the other hand, is a good argument! But I've seen this mentioned a number of times without anyone explaining what, exactly, changed in his approach. It is interesting that he seemed to do much better against righties, in particular, as the season went on...
I just feel like, more often than not, when some guy improves and is touted as having a "new approach," they just end up regressing toward their career norms in the end. Maybe that's because the league adjusts to the new approach. In any case, I'm open to the argument that Renfroe really has found another level. It's not like that never happens.
ADD: And though I've said it several times before... An average right fielder for $3 million was a great get by Bloom, and Renfroe clearly helped the team this season!
Basis for above average. League average OPS .728 Renroe .816, Number 14 in all of baseball on percentage of barreled ball contact, 89 runs scored, 96 RBi, 31 hrs, 16 assists MLB leader. If those stats don't scream above ave. I don't know what to tell you other than 25 teams in baseball would love to have him in their OF. And all of that led to both SS and GG finalist awards, regardless of who else was nominated that is not a average player. In regards to OBP he was league average so trying to diminish his very good OPS by saying his OBP sucked is plain false, it was league average. And given his OPS was .619 on 5/25 and went as high as .829 on 10/1 just goes to show how improved he was from that point on, out pacing JD from that point in the season. His approach developed with him going up the middle more and doing what the Sox preach, shrinking the strike zone and swinging at your pitch. I fail to see how that is arguing against the stats unless you want to spend the rest of your morning finding holes in those stats to prove your opinion that he is just an average to below average player. Good luck with that. I mean you are the guy who stated that GMs don't look at runs scored or produced as stats anymore.Yes, this is true; they do not.
I don't want to go around in circles here, so I'll just try to make one clarfiying point: he was an above average offensive player (114 wRC+), but not for a right fielder. He was basically an average offensive right fielder, and along with his average defense, that addded up to about a 2 WAR player - i.e., average. I think it's totally accurate to say he was an above average hitter, full-stop, without taking the position into account. But I also think that the question of whether he was an above average player demands a more holistic assessment.
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 1, 2021 10:00:11 GMT -5
A reminder that this thread is about Chaim Bloom and his plan for the Red Sox rebuild. If you'd like to do discuss individual players, please create a thread to discuss. Further posts will be moved/moderated unless discussing Chaim Bloom and the Chaim Bloom rebuild specifically. Thanks!
ADD: moved some of the Renfroe discussion to a new thread.
|
|
|