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Chaim Bloom and the Red Sox Rebuild
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Post by incandenza on Oct 22, 2021 0:20:19 GMT -5
This piece from The Atletic will confirm much of what's been said about Bloom's approach and style (and, by extension, what Henry is looking for). It makes me believe that, unless Devers takes a significant (i.e. Xander level) hometown discount, he's not getting extended or picked up as a free agent. You can draw your own conclusions but here are a few excerpts: The last offer the Red Sox made Betts in 2019 was for $290 million, and Betts countered at a clip above $400 million, as other outlets have reported...But the Sox front office firmly believed Betts ultimately would be willing to sign an extension, or to stay as a free agent — if ownership wanted to hit a number that worked.
At that point, the internal conversation came down to a question for ownership: How do you feel about mega-contracts in general? Because if you’re ever going to do one, Betts is one of the few players you’d go to that length for. Ownership’s answer, a source said, was that it did not think it should give out these types of deals.“Definitely, a better philosophy (in Boston). Definitely, it’s all about asset value,” Bloom’s former colleague said. “It went from about being about the most short-term certainty of big-name players … to being willing to take more chances based on value. And it’s a story that most people would find very boring. Finance type of thing.”I think those two statements sum up the gist of the article. Get used to more Franchy Corredro/Hunter Renfroe/Danny Santana/Marwin Gonzalez/Nick Pivetta/Martin Perez/Yakisel Rios/John Schrieber types of pick-ups. Meanwhile, my hopes of them picking up Kris Bryant, Correa, Seager, Thor or Robbie Ray are completely dashed.On the flip-side, expect Vazquez's option to be picked up and a 2-year deal for Jose Iglesias is well within almost certain reality. I don't understand how you reach that conclusion. First, they offered Mookie $290 million. That would be the 6th most expensive contract in history - 3rd highest at the time it was proposed! This is somehow evidence that they'd by unwilling to hand out a big contract?
Second, they're presumably going to spend up to the CBT on something. That's what they've done for years. They did so again this season. And it's quite silly to think that Bloom will just let the Red Sox payroll shrink down to Rays levels because that would be most "efficient." So they will hand out big contracts. To whom? Remains to be seen! My own guess is that Devers gets extended but Xander leaves after next season. But who knows.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 22, 2021 0:29:25 GMT -5
Re this quote in the athletic article “””””Betts is one of the few players you’d go to that length for. Ownership’s answer, a source said, was that it did not think it should give out these types of deals.””””” We say that about all big $$$/year deals for both sox players and for other teams... How many of them actually turned out well? A-rod, Pedroia (sadly due to injury) A-Gon, Price, Crawford, Albert Pujols, Yoenis Cespedes, Prince Fielder.... I mean couldn’t you technically say that about the mike trout deal if he goes the length of his contract without a WS win for the angles? What was the last big money $$$ that didn’t end in disaster? Of the 10 most expensive contracts, I'd say 3 worked out well (Kershaw, Votto, Jeter), 1 did not (Cabrera), 1 probably won't work out (Stanton), and 5 are TBD (Betts, Trout, Lindor, Tatis, Arenado).
(To be fair, the Lindor deal will presumably be a disaster, simply because it's the Mets.)
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Post by vokuhila on Oct 22, 2021 2:24:22 GMT -5
(To be fair, the Lindor deal will presumably be a disaster, simply because it's the Mets.)
It's funny, because it's true.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Oct 22, 2021 6:21:21 GMT -5
Even if you DO believe those statements to be true, that they'll never give out a big contract again, while I absolutely do not (I feel like people should learn by now these guys aren't just going to give away their hand so easily)... you understand there's a huge amount of space in between the two levels of contracts you listed, right? Like, HUGE. There is but the huge question is if Devers or to a lesser extent Bogaerts want to he paid near or at market level, would they make that kind of market offer? Perhaps X opts out but is willing to sign for a good deal below market value. According to his twin brother he really badly wants to stay. But if he's looking for Lindor money, he's probably gone. I think Devers looks for Rendon/Arronado money. I dont think he'd be treated as a DH by all pursuing teams. I think he could get 300 plus million and if so and if X stays I wouldnt be surprised if he were traded like Mookie was. None of the above is a commentary on what they should do or not do, but rather what I think is a possibility. They'll spend money. My guess is they re-sign E-Rod. If E-Rod wants market value he will probably be gone or just take the QO. If he is willing to take the same deal Eovaldi got then he probably stays. My concern is that the Sox organization decides to start a practice to become the Rays and they decide to trade guys like Boegarts or Devers instead of paying them. Its very difficult to find players like them or Mookie. Just because the Sox have Blaze Jordan, Casas, Yorke, and Downs doesn't mean you can completely count on them to replace the production of the guys leaving. In two years it's entirely possible that the Sox end up losing JD, Schwarber, Xander and Devers. That leaves your biggest power threat as Bobby Dalbec or Casas. I think Bloom has done a good job overall but the next two offseason's will be very critical to the future of this team. X is the one guy that I feel the Sox cannot lose. He's the leader. I also wouldn't screw around with him all that much since there's a team in NY that likes to spend and needs a SS/3B. Just saying...
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Oct 22, 2021 6:32:58 GMT -5
Re this quote in the athletic article “””””Betts is one of the few players you’d go to that length for. Ownership’s answer, a source said, was that it did not think it should give out these types of deals.””””” We say that about all big $$$/year deals for both sox players and for other teams... How many of them actually turned out well? A-rod, Pedroia (sadly due to injury) A-Gon, Price, Crawford, Albert Pujols, Yoenis Cespedes, Prince Fielder.... I mean couldn’t you technically say that about the mike trout deal if he goes the length of his contract without a WS win for the angles? What was the last big money $$$ that didn’t end in disaster? Of the 10 most expensive contracts, I'd say 3 worked out well (Kershaw, Votto, Jeter), 1 did not (Cabrera), 1 probably won't work out (Stanton), and 5 are TBD (Betts, Trout, Lindor, Tatis, Arenado).
(To be fair, the Lindor deal will presumably be a disaster, simply because it's the Mets.)
Stanton's deal probably works out. In 2024 his salary I believe drops from 32 million to 29 million and drops again. Given the way the market is and taking inflation into consideration its highly possible that his contract seems somewhat reasonable when its up. At least right now he's doing what they're asking him to do. Trout will live up to his deal unless this injury is going to be chronic. Angels absolutely screwed it up out there. Trout should have a WS ring right now. There is no reason that you can't surround him with talent in his prime. The rest? Tatis I'm worried about his shoulder holding up. Mookie is a smaller guy who relies on speed and power but when the speed starts to go he's still probably going to have a great hit tool. I'd bet that one works out for the most part. Arenado probably works out because when is the last time the Cardinals ever had a bad deal on the books? Lindor is screwed and so aren't the Mets. That deal might rival the Pujols deal.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 22, 2021 7:52:34 GMT -5
There is but the huge question is if Devers or to a lesser extent Bogaerts want to he paid near or at market level, would they make that kind of market offer? Perhaps X opts out but is willing to sign for a good deal below market value. According to his twin brother he really badly wants to stay. But if he's looking for Lindor money, he's probably gone. I think Devers looks for Rendon/Arronado money. I dont think he'd be treated as a DH by all pursuing teams. I think he could get 300 plus million and if so and if X stays I wouldnt be surprised if he were traded like Mookie was. None of the above is a commentary on what they should do or not do, but rather what I think is a possibility. They'll spend money. My guess is they re-sign E-Rod. If E-Rod wants market value he will probably be gone or just take the QO. If he is willing to take the same deal Eovaldi got then he probably stays. My concern is that the Sox organization decides to start a practice to become the Rays and they decide to trade guys like Boegarts or Devers instead of paying them. Its very difficult to find players like them or Mookie. Just because the Sox have Blaze Jordan, Casas, Yorke, and Downs doesn't mean you can completely count on them to replace the production of the guys leaving. In two years it's entirely possible that the Sox end up losing JD, Schwarber, Xander and Devers. That leaves your biggest power threat as Bobby Dalbec or Casas. I think Bloom has done a good job overall but the next two offseason's will be very critical to the future of this team. X is the one guy that I feel the Sox cannot lose. He's the leader. I also wouldn't screw around with him all that much since there's a team in NY that likes to spend and needs a SS/3B. Just saying... I disagree with pretty much all of this and think your concern is unfounded. ERod has said he likes it here, would like to stay and has a special bond with Cora, I expect he would sign an under market deal here if it is reasonable. The Sox are not going to become a TBay philosophy team when it comes to their budget. They will and have adopted some of their strategies but they will spend to the limit and exceed it at times. This has already been stated by Bloom. Their is no reason to think that the Sox will not have any of the core guys you mentioned on the team any time soon. They are smaaarter than that. Boston fans would revolt. Of course it takes the right players and them not wanting to break the bank to keep them but Xander already proved he is willing to take under market with his first contract. I also have a sneaky suspicion that Raffy will be willing to also but it all depends on how much and the Sox LT view of what he is. He is turning 25 this weekend so a 10 yr deal for him is a different animal, 10 yrs 275 million could do it with buying out 2 years.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 22, 2021 8:51:13 GMT -5
This piece from The Atletic will confirm much of what's been said about Bloom's approach and style (and, by extension, what Henry is looking for). It makes me believe that, unless Devers takes a significant (i.e. Xander level) hometown discount, he's not getting extended or picked up as a free agent. You can draw your own conclusions but here are a few excerpts: The last offer the Red Sox made Betts in 2019 was for $290 million, and Betts countered at a clip above $400 million, as other outlets have reported...But the Sox front office firmly believed Betts ultimately would be willing to sign an extension, or to stay as a free agent — if ownership wanted to hit a number that worked.
At that point, the internal conversation came down to a question for ownership: How do you feel about mega-contracts in general? Because if you’re ever going to do one, Betts is one of the few players you’d go to that length for. Ownership’s answer, a source said, was that it did not think it should give out these types of deals.“Definitely, a better philosophy (in Boston). Definitely, it’s all about asset value,” Bloom’s former colleague said. “It went from about being about the most short-term certainty of big-name players … to being willing to take more chances based on value. And it’s a story that most people would find very boring. Finance type of thing.”I think those two statements sum up the gist of the article. Get used to more Franchy Corredro/Hunter Renfroe/Danny Santana/Marwin Gonzalez/Nick Pivetta/Martin Perez/Yakisel Rios/John Schrieber types of pick-ups. Meanwhile, my hopes of them picking up Kris Bryant, Correa, Seager, Thor or Robbie Ray are completely dashed.On the flip-side, expect Vazquez's option to be picked up and a 2-year deal for Jose Iglesias is well within almost certain reality. I don't understand how you reach that conclusion. First, they offered Mookie $290 million. That would be the 6th most expensive contract in history - 3rd highest at the time it was proposed! This is somehow evidence that they'd by unwilling to hand out a big contract? Second, they're presumably going to spend up to the CBT on something. That's what they've done for years. They did so again this season. And it's quite silly to think that Bloom will just let the Red Sox payroll shrink down to Rays levels because that would be most "efficient." So they will hand out big contracts. To whom? Remains to be seen! My own guess is that Devers gets extended but Xander leaves after next season. But who knows.
The conclusion you bolded is based on the strong belief that the players above will command market value or near market value for dollars and years. Going in order and based on the last three years of free agent salaries, I could see contracts of: Bryant (29), who plays multiple positions, $22M-$25 a year for 5-6 years Correa (27) $28M-35M a year for 8 years. Seager (27) $25M-30M a year for 8 years. Thor (29) $25M-$30M a year for 5 years. Matz (30) $20M a year for 5 years*. If anyone balks at those numbers, remember that every winter we seem to collectively be surprised at how much the top talent is getting in free agency (as opposed to what we thought/what the stats say they're worth). For example: *I believe Matz is only worth what Eovaldi got for 4 years (i.e. $15M) but because he did what he did in a walk year and did it in the AL East, he will get much more. He looks like a perfect Dodger or Phillie pick-up for the overpay. The one guy here I would love to roll the dice on is Thor, even with the recent TJ, because he's young, he's a #1 starter when he's right and his surgery was to his elbow. Or, to quote Dave Dombrowski: "I'm fine paying for repaired elbows (referring to TJ pitchers). Shoulders? That's another story." Anyway, I can't see Bloom making any of those deals. That's not why the Sox brought him to Boston. If ownership wanted those kinds of deals and players, they'd've kept Dombrowski.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 22, 2021 9:04:41 GMT -5
I don't understand how you reach that conclusion. First, they offered Mookie $290 million. That would be the 6th most expensive contract in history - 3rd highest at the time it was proposed! This is somehow evidence that they'd by unwilling to hand out a big contract? Second, they're presumably going to spend up to the CBT on something. That's what they've done for years. They did so again this season. And it's quite silly to think that Bloom will just let the Red Sox payroll shrink down to Rays levels because that would be most "efficient." So they will hand out big contracts. To whom? Remains to be seen! My own guess is that Devers gets extended but Xander leaves after next season. But who knows.
The conclusion you bolded is based on the strong belief that the players above will command market value or near market value for dollars and years. Going in order and based on the last three years of free agent salaries, I could see contracts of: Bryant (29), who plays multiple positions, $22M-$25 a year for 5-6 years Correa (27) $28M-35M a year for 8 years. Seager (27) $25M-30M a year for 8 years. Thor (29) $25M-$30M a year for 5 years. Matz (30) $20M a year for 5 years*. If anyone balks at those numbers, remember that every winter we seem to collectively be surprised at how much the top talent is getting in free agency (as opposed to what we thought/what the stats say they're worth). For example: *I believe Matz is only worth what Eovaldi got for 4 years (i.e. $15M) but because he did what he did in a walk year and did it in the AL East, he will get much more. He looks like a perfect Dodger or Phillie pick-up for the overpay. The one guy here I would love to roll the dice on is Thor, even with the recent TJ, because he's young, he's a #1 starter when he's right and his surgery was to his elbow. Or, to quote Dave Dombrowski: "I'm fine paying for repaired elbows (referring to TJ pitchers). Shoulders? That's another story." Anyway, I can't see Bloom making any of those deals. That's not why the Sox brought him to Boston. If ownership wanted those kinds of deals and players, they'd've kept Dombrowski. That Bryant contract looks pretty Bloomable to me. I've been thinking for a while he's a guy they might be in on.
In any case, do you agree with the premise that the Red Sox will continue to spend up to the CBT? If you do, I'd be interested to hear how you think Bloom builds a $200 million+ payroll without any mega-contracts. (It might be an interesting strategy!) On the other hand, if you think the team's payroll will just shrink down to mid-market levels, I'd say your expectations aren't realistic.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 22, 2021 9:23:52 GMT -5
The conclusion you bolded is based on the strong belief that the players above will command market value or near market value for dollars and years. Going in order and based on the last three years of free agent salaries, I could see contracts of: Bryant (29), who plays multiple positions, $22M-$25 a year for 5-6 years Correa (27) $28M-35M a year for 8 years. Seager (27) $25M-30M a year for 8 years. Thor (29) $25M-$30M a year for 5 years. Matz (30) $20M a year for 5 years*. If anyone balks at those numbers, remember that every winter we seem to collectively be surprised at how much the top talent is getting in free agency (as opposed to what we thought/what the stats say they're worth). For example: *I believe Matz is only worth what Eovaldi got for 4 years (i.e. $15M) but because he did what he did in a walk year and did it in the AL East, he will get much more. He looks like a perfect Dodger or Phillie pick-up for the overpay. The one guy here I would love to roll the dice on is Thor, even with the recent TJ, because he's young, he's a #1 starter when he's right and his surgery was to his elbow. Or, to quote Dave Dombrowski: "I'm fine paying for repaired elbows (referring to TJ pitchers). Shoulders? That's another story." Anyway, I can't see Bloom making any of those deals. That's not why the Sox brought him to Boston. If ownership wanted those kinds of deals and players, they'd've kept Dombrowski. That Bryant contract looks pretty Bloomable to me. I've been thinking for a while he's a guy they might be in on. In any case, do you agree with the premise that the Red Sox will continue to spend up to the CBT? If you do, I'd be interested to hear how you think Bloom builds a $200 million+ payroll without any mega-contracts. (It might be an interesting strategy!) On the other hand, if you think the team's payroll will just shrink down to mid-market levels, I'd say your expectations aren't realistic.
Everything will depend on the new CBA, and how many years of control they will have on homegrown players going forward will factor into it. But to answer your question, I do think they will spend up to or near the CBT, but that may change, too. Perhaps Henry brought him in to set a payroll a little lower - though much higher than the Rays and As, certainly - maybe in the $130-160M range, and still win. I don't know, but that will be revealed in the next couple years. How they do it will be edifying. I could see Bloom offering 1-2 year deals at very top dollar (like the Dodgers did with Trevor Bauer). Could someone like Correa say, "OK, I'll take 2 years at $80M then go back into the market"? Maybe. Seems like it's more of a deal you offer a pitcher, though. Will this be more early extensions with current homegrown stars (Devers, maybe Casas after two years if he proves out)? Shopping for 1-2 top-shelf players every so often, or following the Mr. Brian Kenny rule of not giving any free agent pitcher over 30 more than a 2-year deal? I don't think anyone knows. We've been spoiled with this ownership group going up to or over the CBT, but with even the Yankees staying under these days, the landscape seems to have changed.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 22, 2021 9:38:00 GMT -5
The conclusion you bolded is based on the strong belief that the players above will command market value or near market value for dollars and years. Going in order and based on the last three years of free agent salaries, I could see contracts of: Bryant (29), who plays multiple positions, $22M-$25 a year for 5-6 years Correa (27) $28M-35M a year for 8 years. Seager (27) $25M-30M a year for 8 years. Thor (29) $25M-$30M a year for 5 years. Matz (30) $20M a year for 5 years*. If anyone balks at those numbers, remember that every winter we seem to collectively be surprised at how much the top talent is getting in free agency (as opposed to what we thought/what the stats say they're worth). For example: *I believe Matz is only worth what Eovaldi got for 4 years (i.e. $15M) but because he did what he did in a walk year and did it in the AL East, he will get much more. He looks like a perfect Dodger or Phillie pick-up for the overpay. The one guy here I would love to roll the dice on is Thor, even with the recent TJ, because he's young, he's a #1 starter when he's right and his surgery was to his elbow. Or, to quote Dave Dombrowski: "I'm fine paying for repaired elbows (referring to TJ pitchers). Shoulders? That's another story." Anyway, I can't see Bloom making any of those deals. That's not why the Sox brought him to Boston. If ownership wanted those kinds of deals and players, they'd've kept Dombrowski. That Bryant contract looks pretty Bloomable to me. I've been thinking for a while he's a guy they might be in on. In any case, do you agree with the premise that the Red Sox will continue to spend up to the CBT? If you do, I'd be interested to hear how you think Bloom builds a $200 million+ payroll without any mega-contracts. (It might be an interesting strategy!) On the other hand, if you think the team's payroll will just shrink down to mid-market levels, I'd say your expectations aren't realistic.
I like the idea of Bryant, too, btw, and thought he'd be the perfect pick-up at the deadline. He's kind of a RH Schwarber with actual defense and versatility. I think he would thrive in Fenway, but I have no sense (because I haven't followed him enough) if his decline will be rapid or gradual in the next 4 years. I throw out all 2020 sats as aberrant, SS BS with too many variables, so looking at 2021 and comparing to 2019, which was a bounce-back from a 2018 injury, it's a bit more rapid than you'd like. Then again, his swing plays to Fenway rather than the bigger home fields he's been used to, and the flexibility for 3rd, 1st, LF, DH and spot starts at SS or 2nd are pretty attractive. He seems like a guy where, if you get him 650 ABs he will give you a .350-.360 OBP and 30ish HRs.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 22, 2021 9:51:46 GMT -5
I don't understand how you reach that conclusion. First, they offered Mookie $290 million. That would be the 6th most expensive contract in history - 3rd highest at the time it was proposed! This is somehow evidence that they'd by unwilling to hand out a big contract? Second, they're presumably going to spend up to the CBT on something. That's what they've done for years. They did so again this season. And it's quite silly to think that Bloom will just let the Red Sox payroll shrink down to Rays levels because that would be most "efficient." So they will hand out big contracts. To whom? Remains to be seen! My own guess is that Devers gets extended but Xander leaves after next season. But who knows.
The conclusion you bolded is based on the strong belief that the players above will command market value or near market value for dollars and years. Going in order and based on the last three years of free agent salaries, I could see contracts of: Bryant (29), who plays multiple positions, $22M-$25 a year for 5-6 years Correa (27) $28M-35M a year for 8 years. Seager (27) $25M-30M a year for 8 years. Thor (29) $25M-$30M a year for 5 years. Matz (30) $20M a year for 5 years*. If anyone balks at those numbers, remember that every winter we seem to collectively be surprised at how much the top talent is getting in free agency (as opposed to what we thought/what the stats say they're worth). For example: *I believe Matz is only worth what Eovaldi got for 4 years (i.e. $15M) but because he did what he did in a walk year and did it in the AL East, he will get much more. He looks like a perfect Dodger or Phillie pick-up for the overpay. The one guy here I would love to roll the dice on is Thor, even with the recent TJ, because he's young, he's a #1 starter when he's right and his surgery was to his elbow. Or, to quote Dave Dombrowski: "I'm fine paying for repaired elbows (referring to TJ pitchers). Shoulders? That's another story." Anyway, I can't see Bloom making any of those deals. That's not why the Sox brought him to Boston. If ownership wanted those kinds of deals and players, they'd've kept Dombrowski. I would like to see them in on Thor also but do you really think he will get up to 30 for 5 right after TJ? I guess I could see it with some options. Maybe more like 25 with both team and players options so each has some protection. The new CBA will be interesting in how it changes the landscape.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 22, 2021 10:17:12 GMT -5
Devers can want whatever he wants, Betts had a season equal Devers whole career bwar total up to this point. Right now he likely struggles to get half of what Betts got. I completely agree, but even if he wants $300 over 10 yrs, his agent will find someone who craves LH power and sees his age as a reason to spend big. If he switches to Boras, that’s virtually guaranteed unless the CBA drops the tax dramatically. Anyway, if they can’t sign him by the end of the 2022 season/early off season, the ruthless “Rays way” would be to trade him with 2 years left on his deal and get max return. It will be interesting to see if that becomes the Red Sox way, as well. What makes anyone think Devers gets 300 million over 10 years? He's going to be young, yet he doesn't have the war numbers or defense to get anything like that yet. That could change, yet right now he has a career total of 10.7 bwar. He's also looking like a DH as he gets older. He's like a younger Martinez, yet he hasn't reached his level with the bat. He'd have to move to 1B and become darn good there, while also improving his bat to get that deal. If I had to guess right now I'd say around seven years 175 million.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 22, 2021 10:30:46 GMT -5
I completely agree, but even if he wants $300 over 10 yrs, his agent will find someone who craves LH power and sees his age as a reason to spend big. If he switches to Boras, that’s virtually guaranteed unless the CBA drops the tax dramatically. Anyway, if they can’t sign him by the end of the 2022 season/early off season, the ruthless “Rays way” would be to trade him with 2 years left on his deal and get max return. It will be interesting to see if that becomes the Red Sox way, as well. What makes anyone think Devers gets 300 million over 10 years? He's going to be young, yet he doesn't have the war numbers or defense to get anything like that yet. That could change, yet right now he has a career total of 10.7 bwar. He's also looking like a DH as he gets older. He's like a younger Martinez, yet he hasn't reached his level with the bat. He'd have to move to 1B and become darn good there, while also improving his bat to get that deal. If I had to guess right now I'd say around seven years 175 million. Rendon and Arrenado got huge contracts in excess of 30 million/year. Devers reaches free agency at age 26 I believe. There's no reason to believe he's unplayable at 3b for the foreseeable future. He is error prone and can have stretches of being erratic, but his defensive skills aren't one of a player who cannot handle the position. He's capable of making excellent defensive plays. I don't think it's a slam dunk that he's a DH. I would say anybody who signs him age 26 could probably get about 5 years of reasonable 3b play out of him and probably about 2 - 3 years of 1b and the remainder as DH. He's a big game player who is absolutely the guy in the Red Sox lineup other teams fear and he's only 24 so he's only going to continue to improve. A team signing him for those age 27 - 29 seasons are going to pay premium for those seasons and with his hit tool I think his bat should carry the rest of the contract especially given that he has shown an ability to lay off pitches that aren't strikes. So yeah, I do think 7 years $175 million won't get him re-signed and I do anticipate a 300 million plus contract. I mean, how many better 3b in the game are there than Devers? Not many. Off the top of my head nobody comes to mind, but I could easily be missing somebody. My guess is that if the Sox threw 7 years $175 million as their top offer Devers will wind up elsewhere for a lot more money. If the Sox to find a way to bring back Bogaerts if he opts out (I could see X and the Sox going for 7 years 200 million) then I do think Devers is probably a goner. If X opts out and wants money more comparable to Lindor and whatever Correa gets, I think Bloom lets him walk and probably bites the bullet to give Devers the money he's going to be looking for.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 22, 2021 10:49:56 GMT -5
The conclusion you bolded is based on the strong belief that the players above will command market value or near market value for dollars and years. Going in order and based on the last three years of free agent salaries, I could see contracts of: Bryant (29), who plays multiple positions, $22M-$25 a year for 5-6 years Correa (27) $28M-35M a year for 8 years. Seager (27) $25M-30M a year for 8 years. Thor (29) $25M-$30M a year for 5 years. Matz (30) $20M a year for 5 years*. If anyone balks at those numbers, remember that every winter we seem to collectively be surprised at how much the top talent is getting in free agency (as opposed to what we thought/what the stats say they're worth). For example: *I believe Matz is only worth what Eovaldi got for 4 years (i.e. $15M) but because he did what he did in a walk year and did it in the AL East, he will get much more. He looks like a perfect Dodger or Phillie pick-up for the overpay. The one guy here I would love to roll the dice on is Thor, even with the recent TJ, because he's young, he's a #1 starter when he's right and his surgery was to his elbow. Or, to quote Dave Dombrowski: "I'm fine paying for repaired elbows (referring to TJ pitchers). Shoulders? That's another story." Anyway, I can't see Bloom making any of those deals. That's not why the Sox brought him to Boston. If ownership wanted those kinds of deals and players, they'd've kept Dombrowski. I would like to see them in on Thor also but do you really think he will get up to 30 for 5 right after TJ? I guess I could see it with some options. Maybe more like 25 with both team and players options so each has some protection. The new CBA will be interesting in how it changes the landscape. I agree with the CBA. It should raise the Luxury Tax level, but this isn't the NFL and Manfred's opening shot ($185M) is about as insulting to the players union as the Sox offer of 4 years and $70M to Jon Lester back in 2013. To your second point, I don't know how high teams will be willing to go on Thor but he was a 4+ WAR pitcher before his surgery and Fangraphs had his dollar value at $11.3M after only 30 innings in an injury season in 2017. In 2018 when he came back and threw (only 154 innings) his dollar value was $33.3M. If the medicals show he's healthy and a GM thinks he can average a legit (i.e Thor-level) 140-150 starter innings over 5 years, that's going to be worth BIG $$$. Also note that some guys actually gain velo after TJ. The idea of Thor with 2+ MPH through 6 innings would be terrifying to opposing batters. (yes, this is what the words sound like when I drool with seeing him in a Sox uniform).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 22, 2021 11:24:56 GMT -5
What makes anyone think Devers gets 300 million over 10 years? He's going to be young, yet he doesn't have the war numbers or defense to get anything like that yet. That could change, yet right now he has a career total of 10.7 bwar. He's also looking like a DH as he gets older. He's like a younger Martinez, yet he hasn't reached his level with the bat. He'd have to move to 1B and become darn good there, while also improving his bat to get that deal. If I had to guess right now I'd say around seven years 175 million. Rendon and Arrenado got huge contracts in excess of 30 million/year. Devers reaches free agency at age 26 I believe. There's no reason to believe he's unplayable at 3b for the foreseeable future. He is error prone and can have stretches of being erratic, but his defensive skills aren't one of a player who cannot handle the position. He's capable of making excellent defensive plays. I don't think it's a slam dunk that he's a DH. I would say anybody who signs him age 26 could probably get about 5 years of reasonable 3b play out of him and probably about 2 - 3 years of 1b and the remainder as DH. He's a big game player who is absolutely the guy in the Red Sox lineup other teams fear and he's only 24 so he's only going to continue to improve. A team signing him for those age 27 - 29 seasons are going to pay premium for those seasons and with his hit tool I think his bat should carry the rest of the contract especially given that he has shown an ability to lay off pitches that aren't strikes. So yeah, I do think 7 years $175 million won't get him re-signed and I do anticipate a 300 million plus contract. I mean, how many better 3b in the game are there than Devers? Not many. Off the top of my head nobody comes to mind, but I could easily be missing somebody. My guess is that if the Sox threw 7 years $175 million as their top offer Devers will wind up elsewhere for a lot more money. If the Sox to find a way to bring back Bogaerts if he opts out (I could see X and the Sox going for 7 years 200 million) then I do think Devers is probably a goner. If X opts out and wants money more comparable to Lindor and whatever Correa gets, I think Bloom lets him walk and probably bites the bullet to give Devers the money he's going to be looking for. He'll reach free agency at age 27, yet right now that's his best asset. Give you an example, Devers is minus 38 DRS for his career and last year was his worst year. He's not getting better. Rendon is plus 32 and Arenado is plus 136 one of the best defenders every. Heck even compare age 24 seasons Devers 3.5, Rendon 6.5, Arenando 6.3 bwar. Rendon posted 6.1, 5.1 and 7.1 bwar numbers to get his contract. Arenando was 6.3, 5.9 and 6.7. If Devers goes on to post back to back 6 bwar seasons and improves his D from damn bad to positive we can have another discussion. Right now I don't see his D improving and while I think his bat will, that D will hold back his war numbers. Do you have a comparable contract that matches his war and defensive numbers?
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,774
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Post by mobaz on Oct 22, 2021 11:26:14 GMT -5
ERod has said he likes it here, would like to stay and has a special bond with Cora, I expect he would sign an under market deal here if it is reasonable.
Offer him the Jon Lester extension. 4/70, problem solved!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 22, 2021 11:45:11 GMT -5
Rendon and Arrenado got huge contracts in excess of 30 million/year. Devers reaches free agency at age 26 I believe. There's no reason to believe he's unplayable at 3b for the foreseeable future. He is error prone and can have stretches of being erratic, but his defensive skills aren't one of a player who cannot handle the position. He's capable of making excellent defensive plays. I don't think it's a slam dunk that he's a DH. I would say anybody who signs him age 26 could probably get about 5 years of reasonable 3b play out of him and probably about 2 - 3 years of 1b and the remainder as DH. He's a big game player who is absolutely the guy in the Red Sox lineup other teams fear and he's only 24 so he's only going to continue to improve. A team signing him for those age 27 - 29 seasons are going to pay premium for those seasons and with his hit tool I think his bat should carry the rest of the contract especially given that he has shown an ability to lay off pitches that aren't strikes. So yeah, I do think 7 years $175 million won't get him re-signed and I do anticipate a 300 million plus contract. I mean, how many better 3b in the game are there than Devers? Not many. Off the top of my head nobody comes to mind, but I could easily be missing somebody. My guess is that if the Sox threw 7 years $175 million as their top offer Devers will wind up elsewhere for a lot more money. If the Sox to find a way to bring back Bogaerts if he opts out (I could see X and the Sox going for 7 years 200 million) then I do think Devers is probably a goner. If X opts out and wants money more comparable to Lindor and whatever Correa gets, I think Bloom lets him walk and probably bites the bullet to give Devers the money he's going to be looking for. He'll reach free agency at age 27, yet right now that's his best asset. Give you an example, Devers is minus 38 DRS for his career and last year was his worst year. He's not getting better. Rendon is plus 32 and Arenado is plus 136 one of the best defenders every. Heck even compare age 24 seasons Devers 3.5, Rendon 6.5, Arenando 6.3 bwar. Rendon posted 6.1, 5.1 and 7.1 bwar numbers to get his contract. Arenando was 6.3, 5.9 and 6.7. If Devers goes on to post back to back 6 bwar seasons and improves his D from damn bad to positive we can have another discussion. Right now I don't see his D improving and while I think his bat will, that D will hold back his war numbers. Do you have a comparable contract that matches his war and defensive numbers? No, I don't. I understand what you're doing. You're evaluating him factoring in his defense based on those WAR numbers and figuring out what his value should be. Makes sense. But I think his market value will be higher. Yes, his defense has left a helluva lot to be desired over the years, but I think somebody, particularly given the dearth of superstar 3b in the game, will figure that his defensive skills are better than his defensive results and will consider him serviceable for at least the front half of the contract with the calculation that his bat, which I think we agree, should continue to improve by the time he reaches free agency, so that he's still a good option at 1b and eventually DH. And again you're looking at that all so valuable ages 27 and 28 season which is big in a free agent market. So I think the market for Devers will be substantially higher than 7 years $175. All it takes is for one team to exceed that market and I don't think that will be an issue. And given the lack of superstar 3b options on the free agent market that could match Devers and his ability to upgrade a team big-time in the first third of a contract a team with money to burn will give him big money.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 22, 2021 12:23:16 GMT -5
ERod has said he likes it here, would like to stay and has a special bond with Cora, I expect he would sign an under market deal here if it is reasonable.
Offer him the Jon Lester extension. 4/70, problem solved! Who knows maybe it is a start, I don't think it is too much of a lowball. Maybe with an opt out after 2 for him in case he out performs. How much will another team be willing to go. Should be a real interesting FA season considering the number of very good players available and the CBA. 4/70 with an opt out might get it done.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 22, 2021 12:40:23 GMT -5
In regards to Raffys D, many of his errors are on throws, almost half of his career errors are on throws. Is that something teams will believe is fixable? Is it more fixable with time, focus and the game slowing down a little bit for him?
Is it considered different than his ability to actually field the ball, I would think so.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 22, 2021 13:18:45 GMT -5
I'd say there's certainly a chance Devers can improve his D. Yet for a huge payday that has to happen before he hits free agency.
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Post by patford on Oct 22, 2021 13:24:50 GMT -5
In regards to Raffys D, many of his errors are on throws, almost half of his career errors are on throws. Is that something teams will believe is fixable? Is it more fixable with time, focus and the game slowing down a little bit for him? Is it considered different than his ability to actually field the ball, I would think so. A few weeks ago I looked at his year by year defensive stats and he is making slow progress. This was his best year to date. It's frustrating because he makes a lot of great plays and has excellent reaction time and range.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 22, 2021 13:54:36 GMT -5
Offer him the Jon Lester extension. 4/70, problem solved! I know this was a joke, but I think people forget where Lester was at when he was offered that deal. From 2011-2013 Lester had a 4.03 ERA/3.84 FIP/3.78 xFIP with 7.74 K/9 and 3.10 BB/9. From 2018-2021 Erod had a 4.11 ERA/3.63 FIP/3.83 xFIP with 9.98 K/9 and 3.06 BB/9. Of course, Lester shoved in the 2013 postseason and then put together a career year after the offer was made, which dramatically altered his stock. Before that, he appeared to be regressing from his 2008-2010 levels. Erod is slightly younger than Lester was at the time, and a pending FA while Lester had a year of control. Lester was more durable with a great playoff resume, they aren't perfect comparisons, but other than the flukey lost Covid season Erod has been durable the last two seasons he's pitched, and you could argue he has less mileage on his arm. I'm not sure what my point is here, other than how people look back on Lester's offer as a huge insult, but 7 years later many people here don't even want to offer that much to Erod right now (I think it'll take more fwiw).
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 22, 2021 15:48:58 GMT -5
Offer him the Jon Lester extension. 4/70, problem solved! I know this was a joke, but I think people forget where Lester was at when he was offered that deal. From 2011-2013 Lester had a 4.03 ERA/3.84 FIP/3.78 xFIP with 7.74 K/9 and 3.10 BB/9. From 2018-2021 Erod had a 4.11 ERA/3.63 FIP/3.83 xFIP with 9.98 K/9 and 3.06 BB/9. Of course, Lester shoved in the 2013 postseason and then put together a career year after the offer was made, which dramatically altered his stock. Before that, he appeared to be regressing from his 2008-2010 levels. Erod is slightly younger than Lester was at the time, and a pending FA while Lester had a year of control. Lester was more durable with a great playoff resume, they aren't perfect comparisons, but other than the flukey lost Covid season Erod has been durable the last two seasons he's pitched, and you could argue he has less mileage on his arm. I'm not sure what my point is here, other than how people look back on Lester's offer as a huge insult, but 7 years later many people here don't even want to offer that much to Erod right now (I think it'll take more fwiw). If my memory serves me right about Lester that was back when teams were giving out big deals like candy. I mean look at the deal he ended up signing. 4/70 wasn't even in the ballpark of it. So I do believe it was an insult to offer him so little at the time.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 22, 2021 19:32:29 GMT -5
I know this was a joke, but I think people forget where Lester was at when he was offered that deal. From 2011-2013 Lester had a 4.03 ERA/3.84 FIP/3.78 xFIP with 7.74 K/9 and 3.10 BB/9. From 2018-2021 Erod had a 4.11 ERA/3.63 FIP/3.83 xFIP with 9.98 K/9 and 3.06 BB/9. Of course, Lester shoved in the 2013 postseason and then put together a career year after the offer was made, which dramatically altered his stock. Before that, he appeared to be regressing from his 2008-2010 levels. Erod is slightly younger than Lester was at the time, and a pending FA while Lester had a year of control. Lester was more durable with a great playoff resume, they aren't perfect comparisons, but other than the flukey lost Covid season Erod has been durable the last two seasons he's pitched, and you could argue he has less mileage on his arm. I'm not sure what my point is here, other than how people look back on Lester's offer as a huge insult, but 7 years later many people here don't even want to offer that much to Erod right now (I think it'll take more fwiw). If my memory serves me right about Lester that was back when teams were giving out big deals like candy. I mean look at the deal he ended up signing. 4/70 wasn't even in the ballpark of it. So I do believe it was an insult to offer him so little at the time. It was offered after his poor 2012 season and before his very good 2013 season. It was not a bad offer when it was made as a starting point. The revisionist history is absurd with this. He was always going to the highest bidder because that is exactly what he did. It had nothing to do with the 4/70 offer.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 22, 2021 23:41:50 GMT -5
Spreadsheet therapy time. Here's where I got the Sox for 2022 before free agency: 1B: Dalbec 1 WAR Casas .5 WAR 2B: Arroyo 1 WAR 3B: Devers 4 WAR SS: Bogaerts 4.5 WAR OF: Hernandez 3 WAR Verdugo 2.5 WAR Renfroe 1.5 WAR Duran .5 WAR
C: Vazquez 1 WAR Plawecki .5 WAR
DH: Martinez 2.5 WAR Pitching: Sale 3.5 WAR Eovaldi 3.5 WAR Houck 2 WAR Pivetta 2 WAR Whitlock 1.5 WAR Taylor .5 WAR Barnes .5 WAR Brasier .5 WAR Crawford .5 WAR Seabold .5 WAR = 40 WAR = 87.5 wins
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