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Post by Jimmy on Apr 5, 2021 23:36:18 GMT -5
Going to start keeping a bullpen trust meter / power rankings. Obviously it is way to early for this but I’m doing it anyways. I plan on updating semi-frequently. I think it’ll be fun to put up a list so that people can debate (and probably rag on the bottom tier guys).
Essentially the trust meter is guys who I would want to come in with a game on the line, in order. 2021 performance will by far have the most weight but historical will also factor in to a small degree.
04/06 Trust Meter:
1. Matt Barnes 2. Phillips Valdez 3. Garrett Whitlock 4. Hirokazu Sawamura 5. Adam Ottovino 6. Darwinzon Hernandez 7. Matt Andriese 8. Austin Brice 9. Josh Taylor
4/11 Bullpen Trust Meter:
1. Matt Barnes 2. Garrett Whitlock (+1) 3. Phillips Valdez (-1) 4. Hirokazu Sawamura 5. Adam Ottovino 6. Matt Andriese (+1) 7. Darwinzon Hernandez (-1) 8. Austin Brice 9. Josh Taylor
04/16
1. Matt Barnes 2. Garrett Whitlock 3. Matt Andriese (+3) 4. Hirokazu Sawamura 5. Darwinzon Hernandez (+2) 6. Phillips Valdez (-3) 7. Adam Ottovino (-2) 8. Austin Brice 9. Josh Taylor
4/21
1. Matt Barnes 2. Garrett Whitlock 3. Matt Andriese 4. Phillips Valdez (+2) 5. Adam Ottovino (+2) 6. Hirokazu Sawamura (-2) 7. Darwinzon Hernandez (-2) 8. Austin Brice 9. Josh Taylor (If Astudillo was on the Sox he would be ahead of Taylor)
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 6, 2021 0:02:55 GMT -5
I don’t really trust Valdez at all, I think he’s good in the role he’s in (mop-up)
I don’t trust Sawamura
I trust Darwinzon situationally
I trust Ottavino and Barnes
I do not trust Taylor and Brice. I trust Whitlock already which is wild
If I ranked them it would probably be
Barnes Ottavino Whitlock Hernandez Sawamura Andriese Valdez Brice Taylor
This is very much subject to change so hopefully unitspin doesn’t go digging this post up in 6 months when Barnes has a bad outing to totally own me
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Post by blizzards39 on Apr 6, 2021 0:52:58 GMT -5
I don’t really trust Valdez at all, I think he’s good in the role he’s in (mop-up) I don’t trust Sawamura I trust Darwinzon situationally I trust Ottavino and Barnes I do not trust Taylor and Brice. I trust Whitlock already which is wild If I ranked them it would probably be Barnes Ottavino Whitlock Hernandez Sawamura Andriese Valdez Brice Taylor This is very much subject to change so hopefully unitspin doesn’t go digging this post up in 6 months when Barnes has a bad outing to totally own me Rather than rank I’m going to put in 3 groups. No particular order Trust Ottanivo Barnes So so trust Andreisse Sawamura Whitlock Hernandez Don’t trust at all Valdez Taylor Brice
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Post by bcsox on Apr 6, 2021 8:43:20 GMT -5
trust:
Ottavino Barnes Whitlock(since he has put on a RS uniform, including spring training, he does nothing but get hitters out)
Day to day: Andriesse Valdez: For some reason I have soft spot for a guy who has been released weighs about 145 pounds, can barely reach 90 mph and throws his change up over and over again, and yet manages to string together good outings
Dont want them near a one run game: Brice: maybe he deserves higher, but he doesnt do much for me Taylor: my guess is he goes when Houck inevitably comes back up Sawamura: I have no patience with relievers who cant consistently find the strike zone Hernandez: I have no patience with relievers who cant consistently find the strike zone.
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Post by greenmonster on Apr 6, 2021 8:50:59 GMT -5
trust: Ottavino Barnes Whitlock(since he has put on a RS uniform, including spring training, he does nothing but get hitters out) Day to day: Andriesse Valdez: For some reason I have soft spot for a guy who has been released weighs about 145 pounds, can barely reach 90 mph and throws his change up over and over again, and yet manages to string together good outingsDont want them near a one run game: Brice: maybe he deserves higher, but he doesnt do much for me Taylor: my guess is he goes when Houck inevitably comes back up Sawamura: I have no patience with relievers who cant consistently find the strike zone Hernandez: I have no patience with relievers who cant consistently find the strike zone. Kinda sounds like Koji, who I trusted more than any reliever I can remember. Koji-Time was a good as it gets!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 6, 2021 9:09:24 GMT -5
I don't have a ton of trust in any of those guys. Too many walks for my tastes.
If I had to put an order on it, I'd go with Barnes, Ottavino, and Whitlock, based on what I saw in spring training - and frankly, I trust him too much for this pen as I'd like to see him get a legit shot at the rotation.
I'm intrigued by Sawamura but the walks concern me.
I don't trust Darwinzon - because of the walks.
I don't necessarily think that if Rondon gets called up that he'll be particularly great but he throws strikes more often that the majority of the pen so my trust factor with him might be a bit higher, although that's not saying much.
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Post by Jimmy on Apr 6, 2021 9:14:44 GMT -5
I’m slightly surprised by the Valdez slander after a very solid 2020 and 3 perfect innings this year. Personally I didn’t factor ST into my meter at all.
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Post by manfred on Apr 6, 2021 9:20:42 GMT -5
I’m slightly surprised by the Valdez slander after a very solid 2020 and 3 perfect innings this year. Personally I didn’t factor ST into my meter at all. Agreed. I like Valdez. Trust is kind of relative... guys have different jobs. So I am happy to see Valdez come in midgame.... far happier than seeing Taylor... but that doesn’t mean I want him closing. Similarly, Barnes and Ottavino are the most established (likely most talented) guys, and as 8th inning guys with someone behind them, I love it. I am not sure I trust either at the end of the bullpen, though. Ottavino looks like he may not be quite what he was (by a tick... not catastrophic), and Barnes can implode too often to be entirely reliable. Most of other guys are what most relievers are... they’ll get outs, and they’ll have bad days. Whitlock, Sawamura, and Hernandez have great stuff, and I expect there could be growing pains. So I get nervous, but I also think any of the three could come in, strike out three guys, hit the showers. Taylor? Banish him.
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Post by Jimmy on Apr 6, 2021 10:49:55 GMT -5
I’m slightly surprised by the Valdez slander after a very solid 2020 and 3 perfect innings this year. Personally I didn’t factor ST into my meter at all. Agreed. I like Valdez. Trust is kind of relative... guys have different jobs. So I am happy to see Valdez come in midgame.... far happier than seeing Taylor... but that doesn’t mean I want him closing. Similarly, Barnes and Ottavino are the most established (likely most talented) guys, and as 8th inning guys with someone behind them, I love it. I am not sure I trust either at the end of the bullpen, though. Ottavino looks like he may not be quite what he was (by a tick... not catastrophic), and Barnes can implode too often to be entirely reliable. Most of other guys are what most relievers are... they’ll get outs, and they’ll have bad days. Whitlock, Sawamura, and Hernandez have great stuff, and I expect there could be growing pains. So I get nervous, but I also think any of the three could come in, strike out three guys, hit the showers. Taylor? Banish him. Agreed. Maybe “who id want to come in with the game on the line” was a bad way to put it. It’s more like “who’s least likely to make me shit my pants when they’re on the mound.”
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cdj
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Posts: 14,020
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Post by cdj on Apr 6, 2021 14:24:34 GMT -5
I don’t dislike Valdez, I just think he was a little lucky last year and had a rough spring. Walks too many guys for how hard he throws. Not unlike the Orioles Valdez in that way lol
I think you can have much worse arms in the pen- we all know that based off of last year- but I just don’t have a whole lot of faith in him even with these two perfect mop up duty appearances
As for Whitlock I agree with those that want him in the rotation, I just think that’s more of a project for next season. I don’t mind building him up this year with him coming back off of TJ
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 6, 2021 14:29:58 GMT -5
I don't have a ton of trust in any of those guys. Too many walks for my tastes. If I had to put an order on it, I'd go with Barnes, Ottavino, and Whitlock, based on what I saw in spring training - and frankly, I trust him too much for this pen as I'd like to see him get a legit shot at the rotation. I'm intrigued by Sawamura but the walks concern me. I don't trust Darwinzon - because of the walks. I don't necessarily think that if Rondon gets called up that he'll be particularly great but he throws strikes more often that the majority of the pen so my trust factor with him might be a bit higher, although that's not saying much. I like Whitlock in the bullpen. As a rule 5 guy, it feels to me like he needs to be protected a little and throwing him into the rotation seems a bit much. I could be wrong here, but keeping him in the bullpen seems like a safer approach. Maybe start him in AAA next year as a starter, stretch him out, and bring him along slowly to see what they have. The other thing is I like a really good swingman in the bullpen. For a team that's probably not going to get a ton of 7+ inning starts, it's nice to have a guy that can pitch 2+ innings and be really good. Andriese strikes me as more the typical garbage time reliver, so I like the bullpen a lot more with Whitlock in it. I certainly don't think it's crazy to keep him in the pen. He's missed a lot of time due to injury and you don't want to burn him out pitching him too many innings so I do get where you're coming from. Once upon a time, Earl Weaver would take a guy like Whitlock and put him in long relief and build him up to become a rotation mainstay. Of course he had the luxury of guys like Palmer, Cuellar, McNally, and eventually Flanagan, McGregor, Stone, etc already in the rotation. I do think that Whitlock is ultimately a starter and frankly I think he's better than Perez and you can make the argument that he's better than Richards, and possibly Pivetta. In a way he kind of reminds me of when the Yankees had a young Phil Hughes. They stuck him in the pen and he helped them win in 09 and then he became a mainstay starting pitcher. I like that Whitlock pounds the strike zone and I've increasingly come to believe that the Red Sox stole the Yankees blind here. I see no reason why he can't become a #3/#4 starter in the near future.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 7, 2021 10:01:09 GMT -5
Andriese.
First line is actual and second line is expected.
First 3 guys he faced, opening day:
.500 / .667 / 1.000 .308 / .436 / .376 (most of the difference, Mancini wall-ball 2B, good piece of Fenway hitting)
Third inning of work in Rays game 1, 4 batters faced, including Arozarena and Lowe a second time, after throwing 27 pitches:
.750 / .750 / .750 .423 / .423 / .714
In between, 12 hitters
.231 / .231 / .308 .149 / .149 / .233
Two interpretations:
When he wasn't literally ice cold, or gassed, he's been totally dominant.
Overall, he's been the fourth best reliever on the team (after Barnes, Valdez, and Whitlock) despite these splits being random. .233 / .274 / .361 expected line.
We'll see. Until Brasier returns, I'd rather see Houck stay in MLB (sending Taylor down) in the multi-inning role and use Andriese for a max 2 innings at a time.
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Post by Jimmy on Apr 11, 2021 16:11:01 GMT -5
4/11 Bullpen Trust Meter:
1. Matt Barnes 2. Garrett Whitlock (+1) 3. Phillips Valdez (-1) 4. Hirokazu Sawamura 5. Adam Ottovino 6. Matt Andriese (+1) 7. Darwinzon Hernandez (-1) 8. Austin Brice 9. Josh Taylor
Sawamura and Ottovino tough to rank. Sawamura 0 ER but his xFIP doesn’t look great. Ottovino is the opposite, ugly ERA but more forgiving xFIP. Kept them where they are and will let it play out for now. I am trying to keep this more of a “feel” thing than looking at stats / sabermetrics too much. Didn’t want to dock Valdez too much for one bad game but he dropped due to his performance today. Obviously wouldn’t be surprised if Darwinzon out pitches Andrisse this year but Andriese seems more stable in terms of knowing what you’re going to get when he goes out there for the time being, mostly due to Darwinzons control issues.
Essentially I see a top tier (Barnes and Whitlock, although if we wanted to be specific Barnes should have his own tier) a middle tier (#3 through #7) and then the fan favorite bottom tier (Brice / Taylor). I’m excited to see who breaks out of that middle tier to be the true #3 option. As of right now I can’t really argue with any order people rank the #3-7 guys.
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Post by manfred on Apr 11, 2021 17:03:42 GMT -5
4/11 Bullpen Trust Meter: 1. Matt Barnes 2. Garrett Whitlock (+1) 3. Phillips Valdez (-1) 4. Hirokazu Sawamura 5. Adam Ottovino 6. Matt Andriese (+1) 7. Darwinzon Hernandez (-1) 8. Austin Brice 9. Josh Taylor Sawamura and Ottovino tough to rank. Sawamura 0 ER but his xFIP doesn’t look great. Ottovino is the opposite, ugly ERA but more forgiving xFIP. Kept them where they are and will let it play out for now. I am trying to keep this more of a “feel” thing than looking at stats / sabermetrics too much. Didn’t want to dock Valdez too much for one bad game but he dropped due to his performance today. Obviously wouldn’t be surprised if Darwinzon out pitches Andrisse this year but Andriese seems more stable in terms of knowing what you’re going to get when he goes out there for the time being, mostly due to Darwinzons control issues. Essentially I see a top tier (Barnes and Whitlock, although if we wanted to be specific Barnes should have his own tier) a middle tier (#3 through #7) and then the fan favorite bottom tier (Brice / Taylor). I’m excited to see who breaks out of that middle tier to be the true #3 option. As of right now I can’t really argue with any order people rank the #3-7 guys. Feels generous putting Valdez third. I look at it this way: say Barnes is out. You need a save. Cora brings in Valdez, who blows it. Is your reaction “what ya gunna do” or “probably should have used Ottavino”? Or DH? I think the latter.
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Post by foreverred9 on Apr 11, 2021 17:25:51 GMT -5
Andriese feels low, he's number 3 for me and probably closer to Whitlock than Whitlock is to Barnes (at least until I'm convinced Whitlock is this good).
Tier A: Barnes Tier B: Whitlock/Andriese Tier C: all others Tier D: Brice/Taylor
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Post by incandenza on Apr 11, 2021 17:53:21 GMT -5
I'm surprised how low people are on Ottavino. His ERA/FIP/xFIP line is 11.57/2.34/3.09, which screams SSS weirdness. He's the obvious #2 for me after Barnes, with Whitlock #3. Then a middle tier of Sawamura, Andriese, Hernandez; then Valdez; then Brice and Taylor.
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Post by Jimmy on Apr 11, 2021 20:44:19 GMT -5
I'm surprised how low people are on Ottavino. His ERA/FIP/xFIP line is 11.57/2.34/3.09, which screams SSS weirdness. He's the obvious #2 for me after Barnes, with Whitlock #3. Then a middle tier of Sawamura, Andriese, Hernandez; then Valdez; then Brice and Taylor. I agree with your take, but for the purpose of the trust meter, which is somewhat short term focused, I figure I’ll let the SSS stats work themselves out before making the change. I think Ottovino certainly projects as better than the #5 guy in the bullpen when the season is all said and done. I was probably unclear with the purpose of the trust meter, it’s focused on how I feel about guys in the immediate, not how I project them for the rest of the season.
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Post by Jimmy on Apr 11, 2021 20:48:55 GMT -5
4/11 Bullpen Trust Meter: 1. Matt Barnes 2. Garrett Whitlock (+1) 3. Phillips Valdez (-1) 4. Hirokazu Sawamura 5. Adam Ottovino 6. Matt Andriese (+1) 7. Darwinzon Hernandez (-1) 8. Austin Brice 9. Josh Taylor Sawamura and Ottovino tough to rank. Sawamura 0 ER but his xFIP doesn’t look great. Ottovino is the opposite, ugly ERA but more forgiving xFIP. Kept them where they are and will let it play out for now. I am trying to keep this more of a “feel” thing than looking at stats / sabermetrics too much. Didn’t want to dock Valdez too much for one bad game but he dropped due to his performance today. Obviously wouldn’t be surprised if Darwinzon out pitches Andrisse this year but Andriese seems more stable in terms of knowing what you’re going to get when he goes out there for the time being, mostly due to Darwinzons control issues. Essentially I see a top tier (Barnes and Whitlock, although if we wanted to be specific Barnes should have his own tier) a middle tier (#3 through #7) and then the fan favorite bottom tier (Brice / Taylor). I’m excited to see who breaks out of that middle tier to be the true #3 option. As of right now I can’t really argue with any order people rank the #3-7 guys. Feels generous putting Valdez third. I look at it this way: say Barnes is out. You need a save. Cora brings in Valdez, who blows it. Is your reaction “what ya gunna do” or “probably should have used Ottavino”? Or DH? I think the latter. I think that’s a fair argument after today. I’d certainly like to see Otto establish himself as the #2 guy, and if I had to guess I’d say he will be sooner rather than later. As Incandenza pointed out he’s probably a victim of SSS.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 12, 2021 10:39:41 GMT -5
I'm surprised how low people are on Ottavino. His ERA/FIP/xFIP line is 11.57/2.34/3.09, which screams SSS weirdness. He's the obvious #2 for me after Barnes, with Whitlock #3. Then a middle tier of Sawamura, Andriese, Hernandez; then Valdez; then Brice and Taylor. I wouldn’t have brought him back out after he worked out of the jam in his last appearance, I still trust him more than anybody but Barnes and possibly Whitlock
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Post by bcsox on Apr 12, 2021 11:11:43 GMT -5
1. Barnes 2. Whitlock 3. Ottavino 4. Andriese
5. Sawamura 6. Valdez. Yesterday was shaky 7. Hernandez: Too many baserunners and walks
8. Brice 9. Taylor
8 and 9 dont seem worthy of a MLB roster spot currently. 3 and 4 could switch for me.
I think for whatever reason we are going to have a lot of in game posts saying " why didnt Cora go to Whitlock there". I think he is going to be babied all year, and that is fine. I dont think you are going to see him more than 2x per week, with each being potential 2 inning max outings.
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Post by Jimmy on Apr 12, 2021 11:13:51 GMT -5
I have a feeling this series against the Twins will clear up a lot of the debate on #3-7
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Post by manfred on Apr 12, 2021 11:50:11 GMT -5
I think people are a bit excessive in the Whitlock love. He *could* be great, but he’s pitched, what, 2 games? He is still a pretty unknown quality. To me, there are four categories:
A) Proven pros 1) Barnes 2) Ottavino 3) Andriese
B) Great arms — trust, but verify 1) Whitlock 2) Hernandez 3) Sawamura
C) OK, clean up Aisle 1 1) Valdez 2) Brice
D) Burn it like the Velveteen Rabbit 1) Taylor
“Trust,” again, is always relative. Barnes could melt down. But I usually use the second-guess test... if you get burned with a pitcher, was there an obvious choice for who should have been in instead. And this is my second-guess order. You go to someone lower and get burned in a key moment, I complain. You go in this order and get burned, stuff happens.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 12, 2021 13:06:31 GMT -5
Statcast's xERA. I'm including the starters as well, because, why not?
0.32 Barnes (second to Kimbrel, minimum 10 PA) 1.42 Whitlock 1.78 Eovaldi 1.91 Perez 2.09 Houck 2.18 Valdez 2.84 Andriese 3.65 Rodriguez 4.44 Pivetta 4.59 Sawamura 4.75 Ottavino 5.80 Hernandez 5.83 Richards 7.81 Brice 12.29 Taylor
By Leverage used:
Ottavino Barnes Hernandez Andriese
--- (.97 or above versus .70 or below)
Valdez Brice Whitlock Taylor Sawamura
Any top tier that doesn't include Andriese is dubious.
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Post by kevfc89 on Apr 12, 2021 14:14:59 GMT -5
Statcast's xERA. I'm including the starters as well, because, why not?
0.32 Barnes (second to Kimbrel, minimum 10 PA) 1.42 Whitlock 1.78 Eovaldi 1.91 Perez 2.09 Houck 2.18 Valdez 2.84 Andriese 3.65 Rodriguez 4.44 Pivetta 4.59 Sawamura 4.75 Ottavino 5.80 Hernandez 5.83 Richards 7.81 Brice 12.29 Taylor
By Leverage used:
Ottavino Barnes Hernandez Andriese
--- (.97 or above versus .70 or below)
Valdez Brice Whitlock Taylor Sawamura
Any top tier that doesn't include Andriese is dubious.
Kimbrel's good again? Oh you fickle relief pitchers.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 13, 2021 9:25:14 GMT -5
Worth noting that when Danny Santana gets healthy, they'd need to DFA someone in order to add him to the roster. In theory, at that point, Brasier also is back. I don't mean to pull this off-track, but bring it up because while Arroyo certainly could stand to pick it up (5-for-21 with no walks ain't going to get it done), trimming the 14th pitcher off the roster is also an option, pushing Arroyo into a true bench role unlike the platoon he's currently in with Cordero. Either DFA'ing Brice or optioning Taylor/Valdez and DFA'ing Brewer would both be on the table there.
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