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Post by foreverred9 on Jul 5, 2021 13:44:46 GMT -5
Yeah, I don't think we have an Aroldis Chapman situation on our hands, but the early returns suggest the sticky substance enforcement has taken Barnes from "elite" to "good/very good" reliever territory. But early returns are early; we'll see how it goes from here. Agreed, in the offseason I was thinking "Barnes is good, but I never fully trust him" then he was lights out and I started thinking "He actually is a legit lockdown closer". In my opinion, what's happened post-sticky is that he's reverted back to pre-2021 Barnes. I'm actually encouraged that his xFIP has remained under 3. I was actaully expecting it to be worse, it feels like he's been walking a tightrope these past few games.
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Post by philarhody on Jul 5, 2021 13:57:03 GMT -5
With winning runs on base, I think it is encouraging that Barnes threw three straight curves to strike out Brown and end the game. So long as he isn’t throwing the curve out of fear from throwing the fastball, his ability to throw his breaking ball for strikes in any count will separate him from average relievers.
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 5, 2021 16:36:02 GMT -5
Mine is quite high at the moment. Would have preferred not having the 12 inning game Saturday that taxed the pen but there is little to really complain about at the moment. So far this team has way exceeded expectations. The season that MFYs are having is more like what I expected this team to be. Here is hoping it continues.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 6, 2021 14:02:23 GMT -5
Some Win Probability Added splits, by date.
Ottavino -.66 (5 G) through 4/15 .07 (7 G), 4/17 to 5/2
2.55 since (27 G). Outings with negative WPA: zero.
Taylor -.24 (8 G) through 4/21. -.01 (5 g), 4/24 - 5/6. 1.46 since (22 G). Outings with negative WPA: one. On 5/29 he inherited an Eovaldi runner on 1st with 1 out in the sixth, but the next inning he left with 1 out and runners on the corners and Ottavino saved his scoreless streak. Net on the day: -.02.
Whitlock -.01 (8 G) to May 5. This is a fluke, as his early great outings were in somewhat lower low leverage, and then he has his second bad outing in the 10th inning versus the Tigers and gave up a 3-run bomb to Candeleria. That negated a .39 he'd built up.
.84 since (16 G). 12 plus outings.
Sawamura
.26 (9 G) to 4/23 -.66 (10 G) 4/29 to 6/1.
.74 since (13 G). 10 plus outings.
Hernandez -.46 (15 G) to 5/14
.41 (13 G), 5/20 to 6/22. 11 plus outings.
-.09 (5 G) since. Three minus outings. Just a blip, or another bad stretch?
Barnes deserves his own post.
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Post by bosoxnation on Aug 12, 2021 10:53:18 GMT -5
Here you go guys. I have no interest in talking about these bums but a ton of you do so why don’t you have at it in this thread so I can chat with guys who want to talk about the Rays-Sox game.
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Post by fenwaymabe on Aug 12, 2021 13:41:38 GMT -5
At this point, I'm looking for Andriese to be dfa'd before too long due to the looming roster crunch. I might also add Marwin Gonzalez and Danny Santana to that list as well. We've got to make room for Sale, Schwarber, Brasier, etc.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 12, 2021 14:21:09 GMT -5
No, no...and no. No thanks to any of the three.
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Post by Jason on Aug 12, 2021 16:26:56 GMT -5
Why is everyone so high on Braiser? He was a non tender candiate in this past offseason, and even before his injury wasn't a gurantee to make the team out of spring training, and may have started in AAA. At the very least we can make him rehab for 30 days before we have to worry about his roster spot anyway.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 12, 2021 17:07:42 GMT -5
Why is everyone so high on Braiser? He was a non tender candiate in this past offseason, and even before his injury wasn't a gurantee to make the team out of spring training, and may have started in AAA. At the very least we can make him rehab for 30 days before we have to worry about his roster spot anyway. He figured things out by the end of the season, I don’t think he was a non-tender candidate and I think he would’ve made the team without much of an issue if he was healthy
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 13, 2021 7:21:54 GMT -5
Why is everyone so high on Braiser? He was a non tender candiate in this past offseason, and even before his injury wasn't a gurantee to make the team out of spring training, and may have started in AAA. At the very least we can make him rehab for 30 days before we have to worry about his roster spot anyway. He figured things out by the end of the season, I don’t think he was a non-tender candidate and I think he would’ve made the team without much of an issue if he was healthy Great point on Braiser. IIRC, his velocity was quite high towards the end of the season too.
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Post by soxaddict on Aug 13, 2021 20:36:44 GMT -5
I’m not sure if it’s been mentioned, but I just noticed Alex Claudio was signed to a minors deal. He was on my pre season wish list. Didn’t fare well for the Halos this season, but has been reliable in prior seasons. Still a nice add for a much needed lhp option.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 13, 2021 21:29:35 GMT -5
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Post by slam761 on Aug 14, 2021 3:18:35 GMT -5
Is there any chance Richards actually becomes a useful reliever? I didn't see him pitch, but 10 swinging strikes in 3 innings of relief seems pretty interesting. Was he actually looking good, or was it just the Orioles being terrible?
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 14, 2021 3:36:48 GMT -5
IMO he looked good against some pretty good hitters. Not perfect, but threw 3 scoreless with confidence. He knew what he was doing with his diminished stuff, a professional pitcher. He was extremely valuable today earning the 3 inning save while Barnes, Otto, Taylor, Whitlock, etc. rested. He may be as valuable over the rest of the season, and if so the BP just got stronger and longer. I guess deep down I am not surprised he did this. He was a good pitcher before joining the Sox. Recency bias clouded my feelings toward him, but I am surprised I no longer want him on a 60 day IL. I do want to see what he can offer the BP.
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Post by dangermike on Aug 24, 2021 22:37:50 GMT -5
So Barnes is clearly sliding down the list here with his recent yip development. Perez looked real ruff out there tonight as well. Seabold is on the 40 man - any traction to the idea of starting him, transitioning houck to the bullpen, and firing Whitlock and Houck out there in high leverage situations? I know we have Hernandez and possibly Brasier coming back but Houck requires so much bullpen help on his starts, it might push us to bring up a starter.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 24, 2021 22:45:26 GMT -5
Mostly trust tier:
Whitlock
Deep sigh tier:
Ottavino Taylor Robles
Close my eyes tier:
Richards Davis Perez Sawamura
Go get disgusting fast food tier:
Barnes
current trust tiers I think?
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Post by arquimedezbozo on Aug 25, 2021 8:55:00 GMT -5
Mostly trust tier: Whitlock Deep sigh tier: Ottavino Taylor Robles Close my eyes tier: Richards Davis Perez Sawamura Go get disgusting fast food tier: Barnes current trust tiers I think? Even after last night’s clean inning, I still have Hansel (19 base runners in 9 innings with the Sox) in that third tier. Sawamura was in my second tier but he’s been falling off the tightrope a little too often of late. If we aligned the tiers with alcohol, there are far too many shots of tequila coming out of the pen right now and Barnes is basically his own drinking game.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 3, 2021 10:40:30 GMT -5
Who is the unexpected leader in xwOBA allowed by relievers with 50+ PA / BFP? And by a wide margin? As in, the difference between him and the runner-up is the same as that between #2 and #8? As in, he's also the leader for minimum 40, and 30 ... in fact, 26. He's second for guys with 20 BFP. Garret Richards: .150 / .215 / .207 = .195 xwOBA (52 PA) .167 / .231 /.229 = .210 wOBA Now, it is true that he's only 7th in wOBA (out of 405 qualifiers), and if you use my finding that 18% of xw0BA - wOBA is predictive, he has only a narrow edge for #1. Top 15 guys: Name PA Adj Richards, Garr. 52 .198 López, Reynaldo 68 .202 Warren, Austin 64 .214 Hader, Josh 185 .217 Treinen, Blake 230 .223 Holloway, Jord. 93 .224 Nelson, Jimmy 108 .225 Clase, Emmanuel 234 .226 Kimbrel, Craig 189 .227 Steele, Justin 54 .229 Hendriks, Liam 225 .230 Loáisiga, Jona. 268 .233 Iglesias, Rais. 228 .234 Kittredge, And. 207 .234 Pressly, Ryan 207 .239 Obviously you can't compare the 6 guys with <= 92 BFP with the 9 guys with 185+.
I'll take a look at the other five guys later today ... maybe!
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Post by Jimmy on Sept 3, 2021 15:41:19 GMT -5
Excluding COVID:
Tier 1:
1. Whitlock
Tier 2:
2. Taylor 3. Ottavino 4. Richards
Tier 3:
5. Davis 6. Robles
Tier 4:
7. Sawamura 8. Barnes 9. Perez
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 3, 2021 16:02:04 GMT -5
Tier 1 Whitlock Houck (if they put him there)
Tier 2 Ottavino
Tier 3 Brasier (hope he can get to tier 2) Seabold (if he gets called up to the pen; would prefer he'd displace Houck in the rotation) Richards (working toward tier 2) Taylor (down from tier 2) Sawamura (barely tier 3) Darwinzon
Tier 4 Barnes (could skyrocket back to tier 1 if he figures it out) Robles (wish they'd release) Davis (would be better in AAA) Perez (wish they'd release)
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Sept 3, 2021 16:12:33 GMT -5
Tier 1 Whitlock Houck (if they put him there) Tier 2 Ottavino Tier 3 Brasier (hope he can get to tier 2) Seabold (if he gets called up to the pen; would prefer he'd displace Houck in the rotation) Richards (working toward tier 2) Taylor (down from tier 2) Sawamura (barely tier 3) Darwinzon Tier 4 Barnes (could skyrocket back to tier 1 if he figures it out) Robles (wish they'd release) Davis (would be better in AAA) Perez (wish they'd release) It's funny how cyclical things are, Barnes was lights out for the better part of 3 months, and now I wouldn't even trust him to close out my beer league softball team.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 3, 2021 16:17:53 GMT -5
Tier 1 Whitlock Houck (if they put him there) Tier 2 Ottavino Tier 3 Brasier (hope he can get to tier 2) Seabold (if he gets called up to the pen; would prefer he'd displace Houck in the rotation) Richards (working toward tier 2) Taylor (down from tier 2) Sawamura (barely tier 3) Darwinzon Tier 4 Barnes (could skyrocket back to tier 1 if he figures it out) Robles (wish they'd release) Davis (would be better in AAA) Perez (wish they'd release) It's funny how cyclical things are, Barnes was lights out for the better part of 3 months, and now I wouldn't even trust him to close out my beer league softball team. Yeah, who'd ever have Garrett Richards more trustworthy than Matt Barnes? Still, if Barnes gets back his mojo he could rocket back to the top. I don't know how much is rest versus the issue being mental, but now he is no longer being overworked, although recovering from Covid hardly qualifies as relaxing. I still believe Barnes is the key to bullpen success if they can get into the playoffs and past the Yankees.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Sept 3, 2021 17:11:00 GMT -5
I wonder why Perez never seems to go more than one inning, even in garbage time considering that he was our 5th starter. I figured if there was ANY benefit to putting Richards and Perez in the pen, as opposed to releasing them, it was an ability to go multiple innings in relief. But in his 10 relief appearances he has gone more than an inning twice. And those were 1.1 inning outings.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Sept 3, 2021 17:13:30 GMT -5
I know Richards has been good of late, but in terms of trust meter, do people really not still white-knuckle it when he comes in? Independent of recent performance, he is permanently in my lower-trust-tiers.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Sept 3, 2021 18:40:25 GMT -5
I know Richards has been good of late, but in terms of trust meter, do people really not still white-knuckle it when he comes in? Independent of recent performance, he is permanently in my lower-trust-tiers. You're forgetting the purpose of this thread! Hot takes, small samples and short memories! Richards is basically Papelbon Redux right now. Let him revel in it.
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