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4/16-4/19 Red Sox vs. White Sox Series Thread
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,201
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Post by cdj on Apr 17, 2021 22:43:21 GMT -5
It seems like Arroyo is slowly claiming that 2B job
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 18, 2021 1:14:42 GMT -5
Good win. Followed the pattern of falling behind early, just barely keeping from letting the game get away (Moncada hit that ball a long way), then catch up and find a way to win.
Pivetta was disappointing. I keep hoping he'll have an outing where he dominates or at least doesn't put a ton of runners on and run his pitch count up early. I keep hoping that his best isn't a five and dive - and yes I'm aware that most starters are doing that this year - I'm more referring to starting to show that there's more than a back-end starter/reliever to him. I know the Phillies certainly waited and gave up.
I guess today was the day where the big K rate for Franchy showed itself to me. Not that he swings and misses but that he swings at lousy pitches outside of the strike zone more than you'd hope. It's almost like if he'd stop that nonsense he'd get into more hitters' counts and could be very dangerous. On the positive side, at least he played some strong defense today.
Kiké Hernandez and X were very impressive today. And Marwin had a huge HR.
Also very impressive today was Adam Ottavino and Matt Andriese. Ottavino was dominating today, but I was just happy that he had himself a clean inning. It's been awhile. It was nice to see and they need to get that out of him a lot more often.
And Andriese did a good job today, too. He did the piggyback starter role today. He's closed. He's pitched in some high leverage. He's basically covering all the roles a reliever has and I wouldn't be shocked if he got a start or two at some point. Basically he's filling that Dennis Lamp/Mike Maddux role in the bullpen and doing it fairly well. And his tutorial to Whitlock on his changeup was impactful. I'm hoping in a larger sample size this holds up for him. They need him to be a bullpen glue guy.
It's nice to see the Sox have some daylight in the division (not sure if it's a 2.5 game lead over Toronto or a 3 game lead over Tampa. I have to check how Toronto fared in their 2nd game of their DH with KC.)
What's interesting in the games that counted after Chris Sale whiffed Manny Machado to close out the 2018 World Series, the Sox have played 236 games, nearly 1.5 full seasons, and they are a dead-even 118-118. That's a .500 performance since the most dominant team in Red Sox history.
Other than that....I'm not too crazy about the uniforms but for this particular weekend I'm good with them wearing them, although I'm confused as to why they're not going to be wearing them on Patriots Day. I'd think that's the perfect day to wear those yellow and blue marathon finish line colors/font?
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Post by manfred on Apr 18, 2021 8:44:43 GMT -5
I can’t tell if this is one of those years when a team just catches breaks or if this is a bit of an illusion. Right now, the Sox are being driven by their elite hitters... with a bunch of guys who are essentially automatic outs. I am not sure how long they can expect X to hit .400 or JDM to have an OPS+ of 241. So to me one question is will Franchy, Renfroe, Dalbec, and, home run not withstanding, Marwin make up the difference when (if) those guys and CVaz and Devers come back to earth.
Similarly, Pivetta and Richards almost certainly can’t go on with WHIPS of 1.636 and 1.750 respectively. Either those go down, or they are going to really fall apart.
That said, I think this team is a little better than I expected. But I also worry it is because I underestimated the veterans... not because I was wrong about the off season moves.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 18, 2021 8:46:06 GMT -5
Good win. Followed the pattern of falling behind early, just barely keeping from letting the game get away (Moncada hit that ball a long way), then catch up and find a way to win. Pivetta was disappointing. I keep hoping he'll have an outing where he dominates or at least doesn't put a ton of runners on and run his pitch count up early. I keep hoping that his best isn't a five and dive - and yes I'm aware that most starters are doing that this year - I'm more referring to starting to show that there's more than a back-end starter/reliever to him. I know the Phillies certainly waited and gave up. I guess today was the day where the big K rate for Franchy showed itself to me. Not that he swings and misses but that he swings at lousy pitches outside of the strike zone more than you'd hope. It's almost like if he'd stop that nonsense he'd get into more hitters' counts and could be very dangerous. On the positive side, at least he played some strong defense today. Kiké Hernandez and X were very impressive today. And Marwin had a huge HR. Also very impressive today was Adam Ottavino and Matt Andriese. Ottavino was dominating today, but I was just happy that he had himself a clean inning. It's been awhile. It was nice to see and they need to get that out of him a lot more often. And Andriese did a good job today, too. He did the piggyback starter role today. He's closed. He's pitched in some high leverage. He's basically covering all the roles a reliever has and I wouldn't be shocked if he got a start or two at some point. Basically he's filling that Dennis Lamp/Mike Maddux role in the bullpen and doing it fairly well. And his tutorial to Whitlock on his changeup was impactful. I'm hoping in a larger sample size this holds up for him. They need him to be a bullpen glue guy. It's nice to see the Sox have some daylight in the division (not sure if it's a 2.5 game lead over Toronto or a 3 game lead over Tampa. I have to check how Toronto fared in their 2nd game of their DH with KC.) What's interesting in the games that counted after Chris Sale whiffed Manny Machado to close out the 2018 World Series, the Sox have played 236 games, nearly 1.5 full seasons, and they are a dead-even 118-118. That's a .500 performance since the most dominant team in Red Sox history. Other than that....I'm not too crazy about the uniforms but for this particular weekend I'm good with them wearing them, although I'm confused as to why they're not going to be wearing them on Patriots Day. I'd think that's the perfect day to wear those yellow and blue marathon finish line colors/font? What did you expect the Red Sox record to be ...118-118? Last year they lost their top 3 starters. Sale to TJ, E-Rod to injury, and Price to the Dodgers! The WS championship teams averaged around 80 percent turnover in their “core/key” players between titles. IMO, I would rather have championships and last place finishes than 86 years between titles.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Apr 18, 2021 9:15:39 GMT -5
I've just spent 35 minutes doing the most complex sabermetric calculations of my life, trying to figure out how the hell the Sox are doing this.
As is always the case, the conclusion is just a hypothesis that requires further testing. But it appears as if they are better than the teams they are playing.
And that is emphasis, not sarcasm!
Cora in the post-game on Marwin, more or less: "It's amazing the way people gravitate to him in the clubhouse."
I don't want to be Donnie Downer here. I'm enjoying the ride as much as anyone and would love 2013 2.0. But the eyeball test and some of the high-level stats make me think a correction is inevitable. The .337 BABIP can't last and they have a team ERA of 3.52 but an xFIP of 4.29. The Pythag is 9-5, compared to a record of 10-4, so it's basically in line. But over the course of the season, that's a difference of 11 games. Adjust the BABIP, the xFIP and then come up with a new Pythag based on that and the record will be quite different.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 18, 2021 9:17:35 GMT -5
Good win. Followed the pattern of falling behind early, just barely keeping from letting the game get away (Moncada hit that ball a long way), then catch up and find a way to win. Pivetta was disappointing. I keep hoping he'll have an outing where he dominates or at least doesn't put a ton of runners on and run his pitch count up early. I keep hoping that his best isn't a five and dive - and yes I'm aware that most starters are doing that this year - I'm more referring to starting to show that there's more than a back-end starter/reliever to him. I know the Phillies certainly waited and gave up. I guess today was the day where the big K rate for Franchy showed itself to me. Not that he swings and misses but that he swings at lousy pitches outside of the strike zone more than you'd hope. It's almost like if he'd stop that nonsense he'd get into more hitters' counts and could be very dangerous. On the positive side, at least he played some strong defense today. Kiké Hernandez and X were very impressive today. And Marwin had a huge HR. Also very impressive today was Adam Ottavino and Matt Andriese. Ottavino was dominating today, but I was just happy that he had himself a clean inning. It's been awhile. It was nice to see and they need to get that out of him a lot more often. And Andriese did a good job today, too. He did the piggyback starter role today. He's closed. He's pitched in some high leverage. He's basically covering all the roles a reliever has and I wouldn't be shocked if he got a start or two at some point. Basically he's filling that Dennis Lamp/Mike Maddux role in the bullpen and doing it fairly well. And his tutorial to Whitlock on his changeup was impactful. I'm hoping in a larger sample size this holds up for him. They need him to be a bullpen glue guy. It's nice to see the Sox have some daylight in the division (not sure if it's a 2.5 game lead over Toronto or a 3 game lead over Tampa. I have to check how Toronto fared in their 2nd game of their DH with KC.) What's interesting in the games that counted after Chris Sale whiffed Manny Machado to close out the 2018 World Series, the Sox have played 236 games, nearly 1.5 full seasons, and they are a dead-even 118-118. That's a .500 performance since the most dominant team in Red Sox history. Other than that....I'm not too crazy about the uniforms but for this particular weekend I'm good with them wearing them, although I'm confused as to why they're not going to be wearing them on Patriots Day. I'd think that's the perfect day to wear those yellow and blue marathon finish line colors/font? What did you expect the Red Sox record to be ...118-118? Last year they lost their top 3 starters. Sale to TJ, E-Rod to injury, and Price to the Dodgers! The WS championship teams averaged around 80 percent turnover in their “core/key” players between titles. IMO, I would rather have championships and last place finishes than 86 years between titles. I have wanted to post all the benefits of having that down year, added bonus it was a covid shortened season. #4 pick in the draft and higher picks every round. The rule 5 pickup of GW from the MFY. Getting under the cap in a somewhat meaningless season. The excitement of turning it all around in 1 year, maybe, LOL. Now all they need is a great draft to make it the perfect down season that helps set them up for the future.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 18, 2021 9:47:34 GMT -5
I've just spent 35 minutes doing the most complex sabermetric calculations of my life, trying to figure out how the hell the Sox are doing this.
As is always the case, the conclusion is just a hypothesis that requires further testing. But it appears as if they are better than the teams they are playing.
And that is emphasis, not sarcasm!
Cora in the post-game on Marwin, more or less: "It's amazing the way people gravitate to him in the clubhouse."
I don't want to be Donnie Downer here. I'm enjoying the ride as much as anyone and would love 2013 2.0. But the eyeball test and some of the high-level stats make me think a correction is inevitable. The .337 BABIP can't last and they have a team ERA of 3.52 but an xFIP of 4.29. The Pythag is 9-5, compared to a record of 10-4, so it's basically in line. But over the course of the season, that's a difference of 11 games. Adjust the BABIP, the xFIP and then come up with a new Pythag based on that and the record will be quite different. All true. But to be an, uh, Optimistic Oliver? (sorry), the fangraphs projections know all that and still project them for 89 wins, second-most in the AL and only 2 behind the leaders (who shall not be named).
The Red Sox, Blue Jays, Astros, Angels, Twins, and White Sox are all projected to be pretty much dead even and win 78-80 games the rest of the way; and that feels right to me. But the Red Sox have banked the early wins, so.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 18, 2021 9:53:20 GMT -5
The baseball gods are currently smiling down on us granting dinks and dunks but damn they are so fickle.
Sox lead baseball team averages at .281. And somehow, in this early going, we are holding our own pitching wise ranking in the top third overall in ERA. (Yeah I know, not a tell all stat). Yanks are hitting .217.
I actually loved the uniforms yesterday. Put a little red on them and take them on the road.😏
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Post by manfred on Apr 18, 2021 9:56:39 GMT -5
I don't want to be Donnie Downer here. I'm enjoying the ride as much as anyone and would love 2013 2.0. But the eyeball test and some of the high-level stats make me think a correction is inevitable. The .337 BABIP can't last and they have a team ERA of 3.52 but an xFIP of 4.29. The Pythag is 9-5, compared to a record of 10-4, so it's basically in line. But over the course of the season, that's a difference of 11 games. Adjust the BABIP, the xFIP and then come up with a new Pythag based on that and the record will be quite different. All true. But to be an, uh, Optimistic Oliver? (sorry), the fangraphs projections know all that and still project them for 89 wins, second-most in the AL and only 2 behind the leaders (who shall not be named).
The Red Sox, Blue Jays, Astros, Angels, Twins, and White Sox are all projected to be pretty much dead even and win 78-80 games the rest of the way; and that feels right to me. But the Red Sox have banked the early wins, so.
Somewhere, the captainsquarters.com or poopdeck.com or whatever, four Mariners fans nod... yes. Banked wins. It is going to be a tight pack until the end.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 18, 2021 10:11:57 GMT -5
Pérez day!
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Post by patford on Apr 18, 2021 10:12:21 GMT -5
The baseball gods are currently smiling down on us granting dinks and dunks but damn they are so fickle. Sox lead baseball team averages at .281. And somehow, in this early going, we are holding our own pitching wise ranking in the top third overall in ERA. (Yeah I know, not a tell all stat). Yanks are hitting .217. I actually loved the uniforms yesterday. Put a little red on them and take them on the road.😏 This isn't really true. For example Devers crushed two balls which were caught. It tends to even out.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 18, 2021 10:15:10 GMT -5
And speaking of those projections... I don't want to be an Unskew the Stats guy, but here are fangraphs' depth charts projections for Red Sox starting pitchers' ERAs:
Perez 5.00 Rodriguez 4.22 Eovaldi 4.23 Richards 4.72 Pivetta 4.97 Houck 4.93 Sale 3.31 Seabold 4.96
This seems a little pessimistic, doesn't it? Only two of the current starters under 4.70?
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Post by unitspin on Apr 18, 2021 10:15:34 GMT -5
What ive seen from the red sox so far is that there alot of bad... bad teams in the AL. We have a rotation of SP that struggle averaging 5ip a game that's awful. That is part of the reason the run total for the starters is so low they literally arent pitching enough innings. At the start of the season we all knew the lineup and RP would be above average, so when they both come back to earth more likely with the bullpen look for this team to struggle against any good lineups. Unless ppl think all the RP will continue doing what they are while throwing 80+ip a piece.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 18, 2021 10:19:30 GMT -5
And speaking of those projections... I don't want to be an Unskew the Stats guy, but here are fangraphs' depth charts projections for Red Sox starting pitchers' ERAs:
Perez 5.00 Rodriguez 4.22 Eovaldi 4.23 Richards 4.72 Pivetta 4.97 Houck 4.93 Sale 3.31 Seabold 4.96
This seems a little pessimistic, doesn't it? Only two of the current starters under 4.70? Yea. Houck, Pivetta and Seabold all with basically 5 ERAs is pessimistic. The rest seems like reasonable base estimates.
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Post by manfred on Apr 18, 2021 10:22:05 GMT -5
And speaking of those projections... I don't want to be an Unskew the Stats guy, but here are fangraphs' depth charts projections for Red Sox starting pitchers' ERAs:
Perez 5.00 Rodriguez 4.22 Eovaldi 4.23 Richards 4.72 Pivetta 4.97 Houck 4.93 Sale 3.31 Seabold 4.96
This seems a little pessimistic, doesn't it? Only two of the current starters under 4.70? Well, that is an *improvement* on Pivetta’s current xERA. Basically the same for Richards. Totally plausible for ERod in his return year (he could hit a wall, for example). Perez has faded historically, but I still agree that seems a bit high. The Eovaldi one is the one I’d most take issue with after his recent starts. Still, ERA also may be a bit odd this year because innings keep going down. A guy like Pivetta who seems barely able to go 5 is one terrible start away from having a distorted ERA from that point on (or, put differently, after Richards’ first game, how many good 5-inning starts will he need to get his ERA below 4.72?).
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 18, 2021 10:25:05 GMT -5
The NY Yuckies are 5-9 and have the lowest winning percentage in the AL 👍🏻😀 I've peeked in on a few of their games. Get beyond Cole and there's a steep dropoff, and they're not a young team. Michael Kay and his color sidekick are all bluster and pain. Kay uses his overwrought baritone to bludgeon the team for their play up to now. He's some sort of dark lord from a Faustian baseball opera. The team is too good to swirl around in the bottom of the barrel, but till then it's great fun.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 18, 2021 10:25:07 GMT -5
The baseball gods are currently smiling down on us granting dinks and dunks but damn they are so fickle. Sox lead baseball team averages at .281. And somehow, in this early going, we are holding our own pitching wise ranking in the top third overall in ERA. (Yeah I know, not a tell all stat). Yanks are hitting .217. I actually loved the uniforms yesterday. Put a little red on them and take them on the road.😏 This isn't really true. For example Devers crushed two balls which were caught. It tends to even out. Yup it does even out particularly over time...but recently we've had our share of "it's a line drive in the box score" hits and it seems that some opposition barreled at 'em balls have nestled nicely into our gloves. Devers is on right now for sure tho and had some bullets....also a swinging bunt hit.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 18, 2021 10:32:46 GMT -5
What ive seen from the red sox so far is that there alot of bad... bad teams in the AL. We have a rotation of SP that struggle averaging 5ip a game that's awful. That is part of the reason the run total for the starters is so low they literally arent pitching enough innings. At the start of the season we all knew the lineup and RP would be above average, so when they both come back to earth more likely with the bullpen look for this team to struggle against any good lineups. Unless ppl think all the RP will continue doing what they are while throwing 80+ip a piece. Ehh, they're 20th in the majors in IP/start - basically middle of the pack - and ahead of the Yankees and Blue Jays. And they're 6th in the AL in ERA which, as you may be aware, accounts for the number of innings pitchers have pitched.
And on your general point: they've gone 7-1 against the Rays, Twins, and White Sox. Are these the bad, bad teams you're talking about? At a certain point the question of whether a team is "good" or "bad" has to be taken as relative: how do they compare to the other teams in the league? In which case there's no way the league can be all bad teams.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 18, 2021 10:36:22 GMT -5
That is baseball, and the new baseball also. That first bomb just died at the fence.
Just as some of the team is over-performing early in the season, it's guaranteed that there are players under-performing. We all know that, right? Nothing has stabilized and won't for a while. As for the 5-inning pitcher stints, that was absolutely to be expected. It's a holdover from what was a terribly twisted season. They have to be loath to overwork guys early what with the cold and the virus hangover. That should change as the weather warms.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 18, 2021 10:40:11 GMT -5
And speaking of those projections... I don't want to be an Unskew the Stats guy, but here are fangraphs' depth charts projections for Red Sox starting pitchers' ERAs:
Perez 5.00 Rodriguez 4.22 Eovaldi 4.23 Richards 4.72 Pivetta 4.97 Houck 4.93 Sale 3.31 Seabold 4.96
This seems a little pessimistic, doesn't it? Only two of the current starters under 4.70? Yea. Houck, Pivetta and Seabold all with basically 5 ERAs is pessimistic. The rest seems like reasonable base estimates. I also think it's a little high on Perez, who's only had one season as a starter with an ERA or FIP above 5 (career ERA/FIP of 4.70/4.50, and he's only 30), and Rodriguez, who has only been above 4.20 once in his career, way back in 2016. (I wonder if it's docking him for missing 2020, without knowing it was for covid, not an injury or something.) I'd even take the under on Richards at 4.72, though I admit that's a wild card.
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Post by manfred on Apr 18, 2021 10:46:24 GMT -5
That is baseball, and the new baseball also. That first bomb just died at the fence. Just as some of the team is over-performing early in the season, it's guaranteed that there are players under-performing. We all know that, right? Nothing has stabilized and won't for a while. As for the 5-inning pitcher stints, that was absolutely to be expected. It's a holdover from what was a terribly twisted season. They have to be loath to overwork guys early what with the cold and the virus hangover. That should change as the weather warms. Is it guaranteed? I think that is actually the question. Who on the team is *under*producing? Verdugo’s numbers will improve, but even with lower BA etc., he has not been underproducing. Kiké is about on career pace. Who is the candidate for a big production bump? Put differently, of the guys off to rough starts, it isn’t like any are just missing or getting unlucky. There is no guarantee at all that Dalbec, Franchy, Renfroe, or Marwin are going to flip a switch. Nor is there a guarantee that Pivetta’s command will improve. I think the odds favor *someone* heating up — at least getting a bit productive. But to me the key question to the whole season is precisely that “guarantee” — can the Sox have more balance as the season progresses?
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,201
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Post by cdj on Apr 18, 2021 10:52:04 GMT -5
I can’t tell if this is one of those years when a team just catches breaks or if this is a bit of an illusion. Right now, the Sox are being driven by their elite hitters... with a bunch of guys who are essentially automatic outs. I am not sure how long they can expect X to hit .400 or JDM to have an OPS+ of 241. So to me one question is will Franchy, Renfroe, Dalbec, and, home run not withstanding, Marwin make up the difference when (if) those guys and CVaz and Devers come back to earth. Similarly, Pivetta and Richards almost certainly can’t go on with WHIPS of 1.636 and 1.750 respectively. Either those go down, or they are going to really fall apart. That said, I think this team is a little better than I expected. But I also worry it is because I underestimated the veterans... not because I was wrong about the off season moves. I mean they literally just won because they got quality innings from Andriese, Ottavino striking out the side, a 4 hit game from Hernandez, an assist from Franchy, and a clutch home run by Gonzalez. I think the new guys are for sure impacting this team in a positive way
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,201
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Post by cdj on Apr 18, 2021 10:55:15 GMT -5
So far this year they’re finding different ways to win. Last year they were finding ways to lose
I like this a lot more
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Post by manfred on Apr 18, 2021 10:58:09 GMT -5
I can’t tell if this is one of those years when a team just catches breaks or if this is a bit of an illusion. Right now, the Sox are being driven by their elite hitters... with a bunch of guys who are essentially automatic outs. I am not sure how long they can expect X to hit .400 or JDM to have an OPS+ of 241. So to me one question is will Franchy, Renfroe, Dalbec, and, home run not withstanding, Marwin make up the difference when (if) those guys and CVaz and Devers come back to earth. Similarly, Pivetta and Richards almost certainly can’t go on with WHIPS of 1.636 and 1.750 respectively. Either those go down, or they are going to really fall apart. That said, I think this team is a little better than I expected. But I also worry it is because I underestimated the veterans... not because I was wrong about the off season moves. I mean they literally just won because they got quality innings from Andriese, Ottavino striking out the side, a 4 hit game from Hernandez, an assist from Franchy, and a clutch home run by Gonzalez. I think the new guys are for sure impacting this team in a positive way I have been very positive about the bullpen... go back and look. I think Andriese was the unsung hero of the game yesterday. Kiké has been fine. Yeah, Marwin hit a home run. If he does that 25 more times, great. But he has not been so good. And Franchy has been abysmal. The new guys are, indeed, literally mathematically a positive. You add up Kiké, Marwin, Franchy, and Hunter, you get a positive WAR. So, yes. But are you feeling good about the latter 3? Of that group who has the highest WAR? JBJ. And I don’t think I’m exactly going on a limb saying the Sox OF is a question mark, am I? Isn’t it clear LF (and 1B) are two weak spots?
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Post by incandenza on Apr 18, 2021 11:04:59 GMT -5
I mean they literally just won because they got quality innings from Andriese, Ottavino striking out the side, a 4 hit game from Hernandez, an assist from Franchy, and a clutch home run by Gonzalez. I think the new guys are for sure impacting this team in a positive way I have been very positive about the bullpen... go back and look. I think Andriese was the unsung hero of the game yesterday. Kiké has been fine. Yeah, Marwin hit a home run. If he does that 25 more times, great. But he has not been so good. And Franchy has been abysmal. The new guys are, indeed, literally mathematically a positive. You add up Kiké, Marwin, Franchy, and Hunter, you get a positive WAR. So, yes. But are you feeling good about the latter 3? Of that group who has the highest WAR? JBJ. New guy wRC+es:
Kiké 85 Franchy 78 Hunter 56 Marwin 96 Dalbec 41 (not new, but you mentioned him too)
Other than Marwin (who's been fine anyway), all of these are very likely to improve. Even if they don't get above 100, they'll be better than they have been, and if all these guys can just get close to average the team's offense will be very good.
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