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5/7-5/10 Red Sox @ Orioles Thread
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Post by manfred on May 8, 2021 23:48:15 GMT -5
19 of those games against Baltimore, Detroit, Texas, and Minnesota, 4 of the bottom 5 teams. I am not 100% convinced that Minnesota is a “bad” team, but still. The 17-15 Blue Jays are the best team they’ve played, and it was two games. I am not diminishing what they’ve done, cause they made hay... but as I said, it feels like the real season hasn’t actually begun. A quibble: you're counting the Red Sox' own wins against the quality of their competition, which kind of makes the judgment circular - "the teams are bad because the Red Sox beat them." Not counting their record against the Red Sox the Rays are 18-14, the Mets are 14-11, the White Sox are 16-11, and the Blue Jays and Mariners are 16-14. There's every reason to think all those teams other than Seattle are as good as those records indicate. I accept that. I wrote when we played the ChiSox that I expect them to be in it all year. I’m not a believer in the Mariners or Mets. But we’ll have to see.
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Post by wildsox on May 9, 2021 0:29:10 GMT -5
A quibble: you're counting the Red Sox' own wins against the quality of their competition, which kind of makes the judgment circular - "the teams are bad because the Red Sox beat them." Not counting their record against the Red Sox the Rays are 18-14, the Mets are 14-11, the White Sox are 16-11, and the Blue Jays and Mariners are 16-14. There's every reason to think all those teams other than Seattle are as good as those records indicate. I accept that. I wrote when we played the ChiSox that I expect them to be in it all year. I’m not a believer in the Mariners or Mets. But we’ll have to see. They’ve won the games they needed to win and it’s bought them time to figure out what they might get from the guys like Franchy/Brice etc for when the games get tougher. Also, let’s them leave guys like Duran/Houck to fine tune in AAA without having to rush them So playing some weaker teams out of the gate isn’t such a bad thing
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on May 9, 2021 1:29:51 GMT -5
I accept that. I wrote when we played the ChiSox that I expect them to be in it all year. I’m not a believer in the Mariners or Mets. But we’ll have to see. They’ve won the games they needed to win and it’s bought them time to figure out what they might get from the guys like Franchy/Brice etc for when the games get tougher. Also, let’s them leave guys like Duran/Houck to fine tune in AAA without having to rush them So playing some weaker teams out of the gate isn’t such a bad thing I wish the Red Sox had an easy April every year. It is easier psychologically to start well and gain confidence rather than to keep looking up at .500 taking 2 wins forward and one loss back for a quarter to a third of the season until you finally reach .500.... By June’s tough schedule the AAA guys will have a month of games to see what depth the Red Sox have and the optimal way to use their roster and batting order. The 21-13 start gets the win total closer to where it needs to be at the end of the season.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 9, 2021 2:33:44 GMT -5
The Red Sox have played 34 games. The AL’s 4 worst teams are currently Detroit, Baltimore, LA Angels, and Minnesota. The Red Sox have played 15 of their 34 games against these teams, so it has been a nice way to work off the rust, get the confidence up, and prepare for tougher competition. 19 of those games against Baltimore, Detroit, Texas, and Minnesota, 4 of the bottom 5 teams. I am not 100% convinced that Minnesota is a “bad” team, but still. The 17-15 Blue Jays are the best team they’ve played, and it was two games. I am not diminishing what they’ve done, cause they made hay... but as I said, it feels like the real season hasn’t actually begun. I get what you're saying. For me, it feels like the true measuring stick is when they play the Yankees. If the Sox can stand toe-to-toe with them you know you got something. If the Sox get beat up by the Yankees, then the Sox are probably just pretenders. It's great to see them playing well. Hard to believe 21-13, a great record for the Sox to have, is the best record in baseball. You'd think at this point in the season some team(s) would be flirting with .667 - .725 baseball and the premature talk of 110 win paces would be discussed as is the case just about every year. Instead the Sox record happens to be the best in baseball, just one less loss over .600. Usually it wouldn't be that low for baseball's best so early in the season. At this rate it would be hard to expect even one 100 win team, but I do think as the season wears on some of these teams that were projected to do well will dispense with the .500 ball playing and get hot. I think the Yankees will be one of those teams, so that's why I think they're a good measuring stick. The Sox have barely played Toronto and Tampa (although they did well in their brief encounter and I don't think Tampa is what they were last year, while I think Toronto will be one of those teams to watch out for). The schedule will be tougher for the Sox in June. If they can hold their own in June, like play .500, that's a good sign, although doing that might drop them behind somebody who gets hot. I think the key is to close their holes. More efficient roster utilization is one obvious idea. I think it time Duran will fit one of their needs very well. While I'm not sure of his fit, Chavis does look different this year, but that's just an eye test after just one game. If the Sox want to succeed they have to figure out their outfield and 1b needs to stabilize, solve their leadoff man issues and lengthen the lineup, and they have to figure out that 8th inning when they're in a close game. And as Alex Cora pointed out, the starters have to do more than five and dive. If they can do most of those things, the team will survive the tougher schedule, but if they can't those tougher teams will expose their weaknesses.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on May 9, 2021 3:12:06 GMT -5
I think we've seen the last of Austin Brice. Josh Taylor holds onto his job of mop up. 1. Brice is certainly bad enuf to clear waivers now. So, that's a success. And he's outrightable. Off to AAA 2. ATL pitching has struggled. At home, with DH, SOX have advantage. Playing the AL East in June. Yep. Gotta play their division.
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Post by Guidas on May 9, 2021 9:21:53 GMT -5
19 of those games against Baltimore, Detroit, Texas, and Minnesota, 4 of the bottom 5 teams. I am not 100% convinced that Minnesota is a “bad” team, but still. The 17-15 Blue Jays are the best team they’ve played, and it was two games. I am not diminishing what they’ve done, cause they made hay... but as I said, it feels like the real season hasn’t actually begun. I get what you're saying. For me, it feels like the true measuring stick is when they play the Yankees. If the Sox can stand toe-to-toe with them you know you got something. If the Sox get beat up by the Yankees, then the Sox are probably just pretenders. It's great to see them playing well. Hard to believe 21-13, a great record for the Sox to have, is the best record in baseball. You'd think at this point in the season some team(s) would be flirting with .667 - .725 baseball and the premature talk of 110 win paces would be discussed as is the case just about every year. Instead the Sox record happens to be the best in baseball, just one less loss over .600. Usually it wouldn't be that low for baseball's best so early in the season. At this rate it would be hard to expect even one 100 win team, but I do think as the season wears on some of these teams that were projected to do well will dispense with the .500 ball playing and get hot. I think the Yankees will be one of those teams, so that's why I think they're a good measuring stick. The Sox have barely played Toronto and Tampa (although they did well in their brief encounter and I don't think Tampa is what they were last year, while I think Toronto will be one of those teams to watch out for). The schedule will be tougher for the Sox in June. If they can hold their own in June, like play .500, that's a good sign, although doing that might drop them behind somebody who gets hot. I think the key is to close their holes. More efficient roster utilization is one obvious idea. I think it time Duran will fit one of their needs very well. While I'm not sure of his fit, Chavis does look different this year, but that's just an eye test after just one game. If the Sox want to succeed they have to figure out their outfield and 1b needs to stabilize, solve their leadoff man issues and lengthen the lineup, and they have to figure out that 8th inning when they're in a close game. And as Alex Cora pointed out, the starters have to do more than five and dive. If they can do most of those things, the team will survive the tougher schedule, but if they can't those tougher teams will expose their weaknesses. I get this, and NYY is always a test, no matter what the records look like, but Oakland is next and they are a .600 team with a good road record. I think those first 15 days of June will reveal quite a bit. The Marlins have also been sneaky good and the Jays are dangerous, though haven't quite jelled yet. Also don't forget the Astros are just waking up and they are on the docket for seven games with NYY in between. After that come the Jays again for four (I HATE four-game series - yet another reason to go back to the 154 game schedule - even if it means expanding playoffs). If the Sox are still in first up 2-3 games on June 17, then Bloom should be looking at who they can add via trade or AAA to fill the gaps. If they run through that stretch and end up down 2-3 or more from first then they were just out-kicking their coverage early on and it may be a long summer.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 9, 2021 9:35:49 GMT -5
Red Sox with best record in MLB and best ERA and BA in the AL.
Is it too early to think about bulking up the lineup with a trade? Their are holes and their are some possible answers in house but those answers have question marks. I know this is early but.... someone brought up Grossman from Detroit the other day and his OB%, 352 career 383 this year. He would be an upgrade leading off and what does Detroit care about winning this year, he could come cheap. Just spitballing and I KNOW it is early but wins count all season and he could be a very good answer to 2 holes.
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Post by manfred on May 9, 2021 9:51:59 GMT -5
Red Sox with best record in MLB and best ERA and BA in the AL. Is it too early to think about bulking up the lineup with a trade? Their are holes and their are some possible answers in house but those answers have question marks. I know this is early but.... someone brought up Grossman from Detroit the other day and his OB%, 352 career 383 this year. He would be an upgrade leading off and what does Detroit care about winning this year, he could come cheap. Just spitballing and I KNOW it is early but wins count all season and he could be a very good answer to 2 holes. It is too early do anything... never too early to think about it! But here is a question: what do the Sox have to *give*? Grossman, for example, is under contract cheap through next year. I don’t imagine the Tigers want an arm and a leg (beggars can’t and all), but... what would they want? Would the Sox flip a Wallace, say? It would he interesting to see what Bloom would do on the other end of a Workman deal (not, I presume, send a Pivetta/Seabold package, obviously).
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on May 9, 2021 9:52:15 GMT -5
Red Sox with best record in MLB and best ERA and BA in the AL. Is it too early to think about bulking up the lineup with a trade? Their are holes and their are some possible answers in house but those answers have question marks. I know this is early but.... someone brought up Grossman from Detroit the other day and his OB%, 352 career 383 this year. He would be an upgrade leading off and what does Detroit care about winning this year, he could come cheap. Just spitballing and I KNOW it is early but wins count all season and he could be a very good answer to 2 holes. The Red Sox lead the league in Runs and BA, but are middle of the pack in ERA. That said, when you are ahead by 7 runs it is ok to use Brice (who is very likely to give up some runs), so you can save Barnes, Whitlock, Andriese, and Ottavino. It pushes up the team ERA, but who cares it saves the bullpen.
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Post by manfred on May 9, 2021 9:59:28 GMT -5
One other upgrade matter: for all the Duran/Santana talk, Munoz is the guy I am most eager for in the shorter run. I think he could be better than Santana, and he could be readier than Duran, upon whom I’d rather exhibit patience.
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Post by incandenza on May 9, 2021 10:16:08 GMT -5
Red Sox with best record in MLB and best ERA and BA in the AL. Is it too early to think about bulking up the lineup with a trade? Their are holes and their are some possible answers in house but those answers have question marks. I know this is early but.... someone brought up Grossman from Detroit the other day and his OB%, 352 career 383 this year. He would be an upgrade leading off and what does Detroit care about winning this year, he could come cheap. Just spitballing and I KNOW it is early but wins count all season and he could be a very good answer to 2 holes. The Red Sox lead the league in Runs and BA, but are middle of the pack in ERA. That said, when you are ahead by 7 runs it is ok to use Brice (who is very likely to give up some runs), so you can save Barnes, Whitlock, Andriese, and Ottavino. It pushes up the team ERA, but who cares it saves the bullpen. Hmm. They're 7th in the AL in ERA (4.02) but 1st in FIP (3.30) and 3rd in xFIP (3.74). If anything it seems like they've been a bit unlucky.
On the offensive side, it's crazy that with all the GIANT holes they've had in the lineup, they're still comfortably leading the AL in AVG (.269; Angels are second at .261) and slugging (.445; Angels are 2nd at .432), and in a comfortable 2nd in OBP (.334; Angels are 3rd at .320). Offense is bad this season!
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Post by manfred on May 9, 2021 10:19:58 GMT -5
The Red Sox lead the league in Runs and BA, but are middle of the pack in ERA. That said, when you are ahead by 7 runs it is ok to use Brice (who is very likely to give up some runs), so you can save Barnes, Whitlock, Andriese, and Ottavino. It pushes up the team ERA, but who cares it saves the bullpen. Hmm. They're 7th in the AL in ERA (4.02) but 1st in FIP (3.30) and 3rd in xFIP (3.74). If anything it seems like they've been a bit unlucky.
On the offensive side, it's crazy that with all the GIANT holes they've had in the lineup, they're still comfortably leading the AL in AVG (.269; Angels are second at .261) and slugging (.445; Angels are 2nd at .432), and in a comfortable 2nd in OBP (.334; Angels are 3rd at .320). Offense is bad this season!
If your FIP as a team is that out of line, is it bad luck or bad defense? I’m actually asking genuinely, because I don’t know how that is calculated. I can imagine saying a pitcher out of line with his staff is unlucky... like guys took the day off... but if it is everyone, is there something more than luck?
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Post by incandenza on May 9, 2021 10:35:56 GMT -5
Hmm. They're 7th in the AL in ERA (4.02) but 1st in FIP (3.30) and 3rd in xFIP (3.74). If anything it seems like they've been a bit unlucky.
On the offensive side, it's crazy that with all the GIANT holes they've had in the lineup, they're still comfortably leading the AL in AVG (.269; Angels are second at .261) and slugging (.445; Angels are 2nd at .432), and in a comfortable 2nd in OBP (.334; Angels are 3rd at .320). Offense is bad this season!
If your FIP as a team is that out of line, is it bad luck or bad defense? I’m actually asking genuinely, because I don’t know how that is calculated. I can imagine saying a pitcher out of line with his staff is unlucky... like guys took the day off... but if it is everyone, is there something more than luck? Yeah, defense could be part of it (though they're 4th in AL in UZR/150 and 7th in DRS, and by the eye test they've been pretty good after a rough first week or two). But what I'd say is that if the FIP and ERA are that out of line it's probably not all defense.
On the other hand, they've had probably unsustainable success suppressing homers (0.72 HR/9, waaay ahead of 2nd-place Chicago at 0.94), so maybe the xFIP should be taken as the most predictive number overall.
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Post by unitspin on May 9, 2021 11:59:50 GMT -5
The Red Sox lead the league in Runs and BA, but are middle of the pack in ERA. That said, when you are ahead by 7 runs it is ok to use Brice (who is very likely to give up some runs), so you can save Barnes, Whitlock, Andriese, and Ottavino. It pushes up the team ERA, but who cares it saves the bullpen. Hmm. They're 7th in the AL in ERA (4.02) but 1st in FIP (3.30) and 3rd in xFIP (3.74). If anything it seems like they've been a bit unlucky.
On the offensive side, it's crazy that with all the GIANT holes they've had in the lineup, they're still comfortably leading the AL in AVG (.269; Angels are second at .261) and slugging (.445; Angels are 2nd at .432), and in a comfortable 2nd in OBP (.334; Angels are 3rd at .320). Offense is bad this season!
Dead ball era.
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Post by manfred on May 9, 2021 12:02:37 GMT -5
Hmm. They're 7th in the AL in ERA (4.02) but 1st in FIP (3.30) and 3rd in xFIP (3.74). If anything it seems like they've been a bit unlucky.
On the offensive side, it's crazy that with all the GIANT holes they've had in the lineup, they're still comfortably leading the AL in AVG (.269; Angels are second at .261) and slugging (.445; Angels are 2nd at .432), and in a comfortable 2nd in OBP (.334; Angels are 3rd at .320). Offense is bad this season!
Dead ball era. Dead ball? Would matter more if guys were making more contact!
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,067
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Post by cdj on May 9, 2021 12:04:57 GMT -5
Hmm. They're 7th in the AL in ERA (4.02) but 1st in FIP (3.30) and 3rd in xFIP (3.74). If anything it seems like they've been a bit unlucky.
On the offensive side, it's crazy that with all the GIANT holes they've had in the lineup, they're still comfortably leading the AL in AVG (.269; Angels are second at .261) and slugging (.445; Angels are 2nd at .432), and in a comfortable 2nd in OBP (.334; Angels are 3rd at .320). Offense is bad this season!
Dead ball era. Zero Contact Era
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Post by manfred on May 9, 2021 12:08:47 GMT -5
I missed that Arroyo went on IL. So Chavis is going to get quite a shot at showing what he has. This might actually work out for the best. If he can get it done at 2nd, they have all the more depth/flexibility. If not, neither Arroyo nor Kiké will be gone long, and all will be well.
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Post by kjkramer on May 9, 2021 12:09:22 GMT -5
So, Chavis hits a HR in his first game. He had another one that almost went out. You bench him and don't let him possibly find a groove? Seriously?
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Post by manfred on May 9, 2021 12:12:17 GMT -5
So, Chavis hits a HR in his first game. He had another one that almost went out. You bench him and don't let him possibly find a groove? Seriously? I guess they’d rather Renfroe than Chavis against the RHP. Seems understandable. Especially given that this is a better defensive lineup, too.
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Post by incandenza on May 9, 2021 12:14:03 GMT -5
Hmm. They're 7th in the AL in ERA (4.02) but 1st in FIP (3.30) and 3rd in xFIP (3.74). If anything it seems like they've been a bit unlucky.
On the offensive side, it's crazy that with all the GIANT holes they've had in the lineup, they're still comfortably leading the AL in AVG (.269; Angels are second at .261) and slugging (.445; Angels are 2nd at .432), and in a comfortable 2nd in OBP (.334; Angels are 3rd at .320). Offense is bad this season!
Dead ball era. It's the wiffle ball era! Tons of movement on pitches leading to lots of swing-and-miss, and then more drag on the ball leading to a lack of power.
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Post by manfred on May 9, 2021 12:20:08 GMT -5
I hate how demonstrative Pivetta is when he doesn’t get calls that aren’t even that close. You don’t want to have umps think you are a complainer.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,067
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Post by cdj on May 9, 2021 12:25:12 GMT -5
Walks kill
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Post by congusgambler33 on May 9, 2021 12:28:01 GMT -5
Foul em off foul em off foul em off.Walks yes but he had a bout 15 stinking foul offs!!
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Post by kevfc89 on May 9, 2021 12:31:21 GMT -5
Devers is a monster
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on May 9, 2021 12:31:24 GMT -5
Wow that was a beam
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