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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 7, 2021 15:16:50 GMT -5
If we sign Erod, the rotation generally seems set with depth options as well. Sale/Erod/Eovaldi/Pivetta/Whitlock. Houck/Richards/Seabold. Makes me wonder if a trade is in place. I'm happy with all those options but wouldn't complain if they traded away a Pivetta and sweetened the pot in an attempt to bring in an ACE. Having an Ace at the top who can sit with Sale as the 1a and 1b guy gives us a world series caliber starting rotation next year. Richard's has a club option at 10mil (1.5mil buyout) - unless he really crushes it in relief for the final month, I don't think he will be back.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 7, 2021 15:18:00 GMT -5
If he pitches how he has recently, I think it's a legit option. Next year is the year you plan on going over and it's a one year deal so it's not like you're overpaying with years that will screw you when you need to get under the cap. He replaces the role Whitlock provided and may even be the type of guy who can slip into the 8th/9th inning at some point. We need bullpen help, and if he looks lights out in that role and is ready to move on from starting I think it's a win/win. I like the fit - just not the cost. If he's going to make 8.5mil then he would have to prove to be a legit setup-man or better. It's possible that happens, but there will be other very good relievers available for that much money. So far he has given up 11 hits and 4 walks over 15.2 innings (with 19 strikeouts). If he can keep up that pace while becoming the setup-man/closer for the rest of the year, then I'd get on board. More to prove for now. Fair enough, I still wouldn't be completely shocked if he's back with the Sox next year. But my opinion is 100% contingent on him continuing to look good out of the pen.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 7, 2021 15:22:58 GMT -5
I think there's not enough Houck as a SP and Whitlock as a RP consideration here. I want Whitlock to start, but they clearly see Houck as a SP, and I think he's really been better than I expected, so I assume they have to give him a chance. So Sale-Eovaldi-Pivetta-Houck. Id guess ERod out. Then Seabold-Whitlock-Perez for last spot. I really think Whitlock may go the Papelbon route... just one year SP filling in because of need and never goes back to start.
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Post by agastonguay13 on Sept 7, 2021 15:23:59 GMT -5
Also, not to start a fight or anything, but you guys are doing an awful lot of work to try and justify signing guys who are less durable, less reliable, and/or less talented than Max Scherzer simply because they're going to be a little cheaper and are younger. Sometimes the right move is the obvious one.
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Post by vokuhila on Sept 7, 2021 15:26:29 GMT -5
Rodon and Syndergaard are great pitchers...when healthy. Rodon has a career year aswell, most starts since 2016 (21 atm), velo at an all time high (FB 3mph faster than last year), all time low xERA (2.68). Odds are Boras will find someone to believe in his health. Maybe you can get Syndergaard for a one year contract so he can bolster his value. He threw 6 innings in rehab post TJ and tested postive for Covid, we probably won't see a lot of him this year.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 7, 2021 15:27:17 GMT -5
Also, not to start a fight or anything, but you guys are doing an awful lot of work to try and justify signing guys who are less durable, less reliable, and/or less talented than Max Scherzer simply because they're going to be a little cheaper and are younger. Sometimes the right move is the obvious one. Scherzer might also take more money for less years which would fit right in with a team who just reset the luxury tax. We are still resetting the luxury tax this year I assume?
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 7, 2021 15:29:53 GMT -5
Also, not to start a fight or anything, but you guys are doing an awful lot of work to try and justify signing guys who are less durable, less reliable, and/or less talented than Max Scherzer simply because they're going to be a little cheaper and are younger. Sometimes the right move is the obvious one. Scherzer might also take more money for less years which would fit right in with a team who just reset the luxury tax. We are still resetting the luxury tax this year I assume? There's also the possibility that Scherzer truly would prefer to pitch on a west coast team so that if another west coast team bids on him the Sox would have to top the bid.
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Post by agastonguay13 on Sept 7, 2021 15:31:09 GMT -5
Also, not to start a fight or anything, but you guys are doing an awful lot of work to try and justify signing guys who are less durable, less reliable, and/or less talented than Max Scherzer simply because they're going to be a little cheaper and are younger. Sometimes the right move is the obvious one. Scherzer might also take more money for less years which would fit right in with a team who just reset the luxury tax. We are still resetting the luxury tax this year I assume? That was my whole post a bit before this. The reason they made sure to stay under is so they can exceed it for the next 3 years before another reset. 3 years @ $100million is something I'd give him in an instant.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 7, 2021 15:35:59 GMT -5
I think there's not enough Houck as a SP and Whitlock as a RP consideration here. I want Whitlock to start, but they clearly see Houck as a SP, and I think he's really been better than I expected, so I assume they have to give him a chance. So Sale-Eovaldi-Pivetta-Houck. Id guess ERod out. Then Seabold-Whitlock-Perez for last spot. I really think Whitlock may go the Papelbon route... just one year SP filling in because of need and never goes back to start. I would be awfully disappointed after all this if Whitlock just ended up a 60 IP/year guy. This site had him all the way up at #4 in the prospect rankings for the hot second that he was eligible on it.
I'd be even more disappointed if they let Rodriguez walk without even replacing him with another FA. But I very much doubt that happens - can't imagine Bloom would consider this acceptable rotation depth.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 7, 2021 15:36:53 GMT -5
We also have no idea how the CBT is going to work next year, FWIW.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 7, 2021 15:40:54 GMT -5
I think there's not enough Houck as a SP and Whitlock as a RP consideration here. I want Whitlock to start, but they clearly see Houck as a SP, and I think he's really been better than I expected, so I assume they have to give him a chance. So Sale-Eovaldi-Pivetta-Houck. Id guess ERod out. Then Seabold-Whitlock-Perez for last spot. I really think Whitlock may go the Papelbon route... just one year SP filling in because of need and never goes back to start. They see Houck as one of their 5 best SP right now. That doesn't mean that's the only role in which they'll use him. Recall that they were ramping him up to potentially be a 2019 September call-up as a RP if they were still in the race, then sent him to Arizona to stretch back out that fall. But remember, the fact that Houck was electric in his three 2020 starts did not guarantee him a rotation spot this year. He's made more starts this year but been worse, so why would we assume he's got a rotation spot in 2022? The idea with Whitlock is he has a better three-pitch mix right now with the changeup and slider. I think you're making a fair point that many are discounting the possibility he stays in the bullpen, but to me, why on earth wouldn't you give him a shot?
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Post by incandenza on Sept 7, 2021 16:08:12 GMT -5
So Houck has the best FIP, xFIP, K%, and K-BB% among the team's starters, including Sale. But that's with some very cautious avaoidance of the third time through the order.
Makes we wonder... would it be too wild to have Houck start every fourth game but with the full intention of never going more than twice through the order or over 75 pitches? He could make 40 starts but only throw 2500-3000 pitches, which would be toward the lower end of what qualified starters threw in 2019. And you'd essentially be giving every other starter an extra day off every four times through the rotation.
It would tax the bullpen, but you might even consider it worthwhile to designate a piggyback guy whose job would be following Houck in all his starts - maybe even Whitlock, as he continues to ramp up his innings. Or use a once-through-the-order lefty opener followed by Houck. Those two combined could be exppected to go ~8 innings in each of their games, which would actually help the bullpen in the rest of the games.
It may be there are some physiological reasons this wouldn't work. But on the face of it it doesn't seem crazy, and in an age when pitcher usage is drifting further and further from traditional roles, why not give it a shot?
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Post by agastonguay13 on Sept 7, 2021 16:16:40 GMT -5
I think there's not enough Houck as a SP and Whitlock as a RP consideration here. I want Whitlock to start, but they clearly see Houck as a SP, and I think he's really been better than I expected, so I assume they have to give him a chance. So Sale-Eovaldi-Pivetta-Houck. Id guess ERod out. Then Seabold-Whitlock-Perez for last spot. I really think Whitlock may go the Papelbon route... just one year SP filling in because of need and never goes back to start. I would be awfully disappointed after all this if Whitlock just ended up a 60 IP/year guy. This site had him all the way up at #4 in the prospect rankings for the hot second that he was eligible on it.
I'd be even more disappointed if they let Rodriguez walk without even replacing him with another FA. But I very much doubt that happens - can't imagine Bloom would consider this acceptable rotation depth.
I wouldn't put it outside the realm of possibility that they make Rodriguez a qualifying offer and get a draft pick when he signs. He's young enough and has shown enough flashes that some team might go all in on him. Also, replacing him with Scherzer, who costs no draft pick to sign, is an instant improvement.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 7, 2021 17:06:22 GMT -5
Red Sox with QO pick for Erod and #41, sign me up, maybe a chance to pull some upside arms in the draft. Completely agree on wanting Whitlock to start. Hope he does. And to say Houck is worse this year, may be true but WHIP <1.2, K of 11 per 9 and >5:1 K:BB makes me think we should make him fail building up innings/3rd time through order. That said the 1.4 OPS for 3rd time through and never facing a guy a 4th time may not get all the way better.
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Post by jmei on Sept 7, 2021 19:11:11 GMT -5
Max Scherzer turns 38 next year. The list of pitchers who have had multiple successful seasons at his age is slim, especially if you weed out steroid guys and knuckleballers. That’s not the kind of move that a GM who wants to build a sustainable contender would seem to want to make.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 7, 2021 19:17:23 GMT -5
I'm more on the Houck bandwagon than Whitlock for SP options. Houck has thrown about 120 IP a year since 2015, my thought/hope is that next year he's more able to work deep into games with one more year under his belt and Cora more willing to let him work deep. Whitlock has only thrown 120 innings one year, has typically been 75 or under since 2016, and has also had TJ. I would either leave him in the bullpen and leave well enough alone or have him start next year in Pawtucket to stretch out. I prefer the former since the starter route means you lose him for half of 2022. I don’t think they need to give him a half year in the minors to stretch him out if they know he’s going to be a starter heading into the off-season
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Post by unitspin on Sept 7, 2021 19:37:55 GMT -5
Max Scherzer turns 38 next year. The list of pitchers who have had multiple successful seasons at his age is slim, especially if you weed out steroid guys and knuckleballers. That’s not the kind of move that a GM who wants to build a sustainable contender would seem to want to make. Ya not great odds but if he gives you what he did this year next year then the last two yrs wouldn't hurt as much. With him and sale at the top of the rotation your looking at good odds at a deep run.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 7, 2021 19:41:18 GMT -5
Bloom spent his money last offseason with one decent “name” signing, Hernandez, and a bunch of under the radar type guys.
Why would he change that process this offseason? Especially since he knows he has to improve our overall depth.
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Post by agastonguay13 on Sept 7, 2021 19:47:39 GMT -5
Bloom spent his money last offseason with one decent “name” signing, Hernandez, and a bunch of under the radar type guys. Why would he change that process this offseason? Especially since he knows he has to improve our overall depth. It changes this off-season because they've literally said they're staying under the cap this season and will make splashes in free agency moving forward.
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Post by agastonguay13 on Sept 7, 2021 20:00:17 GMT -5
Max Scherzer turns 38 next year. The list of pitchers who have had multiple successful seasons at his age is slim, especially if you weed out steroid guys and knuckleballers. That’s not the kind of move that a GM who wants to build a sustainable contender would seem to want to make. The fact that he's 38 is beneficial here. Is there a possibility he falls off a cliff? Sure, but nothing about his dominance for the past decade makes you feel like he's heading there. Pros: -Long track record of high end performance -experience deep into playoffs with multiple teams(DET, WAS, LAD?) -Will not require long term contract -Strong record of reliability, having pitched less than 170 innings in only one season since 2009 (2020, only 60 games played) -Costs no draft pick to sign as LAD acquired him midseason Cons: -lots of innings on his arm with an admittedly funky delivery -likely a high dollar signing -38 This one is a no brainer to me. If you're going to compete for a world series in the next three years, you need high end pitching. Kevin Gausman, Robbie Ray, and Carlos Rodon all likely have more time on the IL in their careers as Scherzer does in his, which is twice as long, and still don't perform at his level when healthy. You're not getting top of the rotation starting pitching from your farm system in that time, and if you're attempting to acquire it in a trade, you're giving up at least one, if not two of Casas, Mayer, and Yorke, all of whom have positions available for them on the Major League team in their expected arrival windows.
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Post by jmei on Sept 7, 2021 20:06:44 GMT -5
Bloom spent his money last offseason with one decent “name” signing, Hernandez, and a bunch of under the radar type guys. Why would he change that process this offseason? Especially since he knows he has to improve our overall depth. It changes this off-season because they've literally said they're staying under the cap this season and will make splashes in free agency moving forward. Honest question: have they said that they will make splashes in free agency going forward? That does not seem like something this front office or ownership group would say, I can't recall them saying that and a quick Googling on my part didn't turn anything up.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 7, 2021 21:57:40 GMT -5
Bloom spent his money last offseason with one decent “name” signing, Hernandez, and a bunch of under the radar type guys. Why would he change that process this offseason? Especially since he knows he has to improve our overall depth. It changes this off-season because they've literally said they're staying under the cap this season and will make splashes in free agency moving forward. I have heard bloom say repeatedly that he wants to build an organization that can consistently compete and is sustainable. I am not sure that he can do that with large free agent signings crippling his ability to build depth and be flexible.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 7, 2021 21:59:38 GMT -5
Max Scherzer turns 38 next year. The list of pitchers who have had multiple successful seasons at his age is slim, especially if you weed out steroid guys and knuckleballers. That’s not the kind of move that a GM who wants to build a sustainable contender would seem to want to make. When he was 36 Justin Verlander signed a 2 year extension for his age 37 & 38 seasons, that's a bit younger than Scherzer, but the closest/only comp out there (Clemens was a similar age...but I don't think he should count here) for a starting pitcher over 35 getting a big money multi-year deal. Coming off a 6.3 fWAR season, Verlander has accumulated a total of 6 innings and 0 fWAR for 66mil/2years. I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on Verlander depending on the cost. Giving old pitchers multiple years at large AAV is VERY risky.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 7, 2021 22:13:17 GMT -5
But remember, the fact that Houck was electric in his three 2020 starts did not guarantee him a rotation spot this year. He's made more starts this year but been worse, so why would we assume he's got a rotation spot in 2022? I think your memory might be playing tricks on you, or you may be undervaluing how good Houck has been this year. If you take his W/L record (3-0) and ERA (0.53) then he's been worse, but nobody in MLB history has sustained that level of success over a season so it's not quite fair. But if you look at his peripherals this year he's actually been better (the numbers overlap a fair bit): K/9 - 11.23 to 11.12 BB/9 - 2.17 to 4.76 xERA - 3.45 to 3.71 FIP - 2.48 to 3.25 xFIP - 3.23 to 3.73 The numbers include his 4 innings of relief, but also his 3rd time through the order stats (because it took Cora a while to figure out what we all already knew...). If anyone is wondering: 2.2 IP, 6H, 0BB, 2K, 3HBP and 8 earned runs. I'm not sure anyone is 'guaranteed' a rotation spot in 2022, but if he continues to dominate through 5 innings then he will be 3rd on the list.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 7, 2021 22:54:37 GMT -5
Max Scherzer turns 38 next year. The list of pitchers who have had multiple successful seasons at his age is slim, especially if you weed out steroid guys and knuckleballers. That’s not the kind of move that a GM who wants to build a sustainable contender would seem to want to make. An honest question, though: what is the rate of success for such pitchers who have shown little or no decline through age 37?
I'm not all in on Scherzer or anything, but a case could be made that it's just the sort of move a GM who wants to build a sustainable contender would make. Normally you sign a big FA to like a 7- or 8-year deal, looking to reap the rewards on the front end and knowing you'll eat it on the back end. You might want to do that to line yourself up for a competitive window. But with Scherzer you could (presumably?) do something like a 3-year deal, in which case there is no back end. Even if he turns into a pumpkin you're only eating it for as long as the Red Sox have been paying David Price to pitch for the Dodgers.
Though as I say this I wonder if he won't be able to coax a team into giving him 4 or 5 years...
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