SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Tanner Houck - bulk reliever?
vokuhila
Veteran
Posts: 791
Member is Online
|
Post by vokuhila on Jul 23, 2021 11:13:18 GMT -5
So after last night, you have to at least think about Houck's role for the rest of the season, right? He's making it hard to send him back down, that's for sure. Bulk reliever with spot starts against righty-heavy lineups is such a perfect niche right now, both for the player and the team. During the regular season this is "good". But this role could really play up during the post season. Just imagine Cora studying the opposing lineup "so 5 or 6 of your best hitters are righties? how interesting". It has the potential to change a series.
|
|
|
Post by soxinsf on Jul 23, 2021 11:25:41 GMT -5
With the imminent return of Sale, it is hard to see Houck as a full time reliever for the rest of the season and into the playoffs. But he looks like he could be a starter for a long time based on his two plus pitches and the development of a third anything with a downward plane. I would rather have Houck in the rotation than Richards or Perez even now. Just do not see that kind of wholesale change happening now outside of injury or total loss of form by either of those guys. At this stage he's kind of a 5 inning starter as his control isn't exactly pinpoint. I can see him giving good 5 innings and the Sox having to find a way to bridge the gap to 8th inning. They're already doing that plenty. This season I prefer Houck being the one to come in during the sixth inning and pitching 2 to 3 innings a clip two to three times per week. I think he can impact a lot of games for the good that way rather than throwing five good innings every fifth day. Next season I think Bloom will prioritize getting a couple of guys who can pitch effectively in those piggyback/multi-inning bulk relief roles that will free up Whitlock and Houck to become guys who can become consistent six inning starters. From your lips to Bloom's ears. Imagine a starting rotation with Whitlock, Houck and Pivetta going forward. Add in Sale and your choice of Nate or ERod, and you have the potential for one of the better rotations in MLB. Now, all we need is a 1B. Hurry up, Casas.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 23, 2021 11:30:32 GMT -5
At this stage he's kind of a 5 inning starter as his control isn't exactly pinpoint. I can see him giving good 5 innings and the Sox having to find a way to bridge the gap to 8th inning. They're already doing that plenty. This season I prefer Houck being the one to come in during the sixth inning and pitching 2 to 3 innings a clip two to three times per week. I think he can impact a lot of games for the good that way rather than throwing five good innings every fifth day. Next season I think Bloom will prioritize getting a couple of guys who can pitch effectively in those piggyback/multi-inning bulk relief roles that will free up Whitlock and Houck to become guys who can become consistent six inning starters. From your lips to Bloom's ears. Imagine a starting rotation with Whitlock, Houck and Pivetta going forward. Add in Sale and your choice of Nate or ERod, and you have the potential for one of the better rotations in MLB. Now, all we need is a 1B. Hurry up, Casas. I'm sure that's in Bloom's plans as he transitions the rotation to the future in 2022 and beyond. That doesn't mean that he's going to insert Whitlock and Houck into the rotation in 2021, although as we saw Houck could get an occasional spot start. I could be wrong but I don't anticipate Houck being a regular rotation member the duration of the 2021 season.
|
|
|
Post by orion09 on Jul 23, 2021 11:35:02 GMT -5
So after last night, you have to at least think about Houck's role for the rest of the season, right? He's making it hard to send him back down, that's for sure. Bulk reliever with spot starts against righty-heavy lineups is such a perfect niche right now, both for the player and the team. It's interesting: you would expect Houck to be a pure righty specialist given his delivery and stuff, but that's not what's happening, at least not so far. Peripherals
| K% | BB% | Whiff% | PA | RHB | 34.2 | 9.2 | 32.5 | 76 | LHB | 29.5 | 9.8 | 19.6 | 61 |
Results/expected results
| wOBA | xwOBA | xFIP | PA | RHB | .276 | .292 | 3.35 | 76 | LHB | .214 | .252 | 2.87 | 61 |
In terms of peripherals, K% is a little higher against RHB, but not by much, and BB% is pretty much the same. He's getting more swings-and-misses against RHB, but, again, the K% is still pretty good against LHB, which I would guess is from a relatively high number of "backwards Ks" on backdoor sliders to LHB. In terms of results (wOBA, xwOBA, xFIP), he's actually been better against LHB. At the very least, it doesn't look like a standard platoon split.
|
|
|
Post by orion09 on Jul 23, 2021 11:47:25 GMT -5
This pretty much lines up with my unscientific "eye test," which says that his slider is giving LHB absolute fits. Lots of whiffs on the slider down-and-in, and lots of called strikes on the backdoor slider. It's a legit weapon against batters on both sides. My guess is that lefties are hitting his fastball... let's check it out.
| xwOBA | Fastballs vs RHB | .316 | Fastballs vs LHB | .348 | Slider vs RHB | .234 | Slider vs LHB | .046 |
So lefties are hitting his fastball more, which seems like a standard platoon split, but they're totally baffled by the slider, even more so than RHB. Caveat: this is a small(er) sample size, because each of the splits' sample sizes is correspondingly smaller. xwOBA is supposed to stabilize around 70 balls in play, so we probably need ~5x more innings before these particular splits stabilize.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jul 23, 2021 14:21:46 GMT -5
It will bear watching. He's generally had large splits in the minors, which have narrowed some as he's climbed the ladder. Anecdotally, even in the minor leagues, teams try to stack lineups with lefties, which seems like a good idea until you see some of the terrible, terrible left-handed hitters they put in there. As an extremely recent example, the worst swing last night was probably Tyler Wade's right? And, I mean, Tyler Wade is hitting .197/.254/.242. And if starting Tanner Houck gets the Tyler Wades of the world into the starting lineup, it definitely would be worth it to use Houck first. Tyler Wade has a 10:1 groundball to flyball ratio paired with a 25% K rate.
|
|
|
Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 23, 2021 15:41:46 GMT -5
It will bear watching. He's generally had large splits in the minors, which have narrowed some as he's climbed the ladder. Anecdotally, even in the minor leagues, teams try to stack lineups with lefties, which seems like a good idea until you see some of the terrible, terrible left-handed hitters they put in there. As an extremely recent example, the worst swing last night was probably Tyler Wade's right? And, I mean, Tyler Wade is hitting .197/.254/.242. And if starting Tanner Houck gets the Tyler Wades of the world into the starting lineup, it definitely would be worth it to use Houck first. Tyler Wade has a 10:1 groundball to flyball ratio paired with a 25% K rate. Didn't Gardner swing at a pitch that hit him? Tough to hurdle that.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jul 23, 2021 16:25:30 GMT -5
Hah, did he? Missed that totally, but that is a heartwarming baseball moment right there.
|
|
vokuhila
Veteran
Posts: 791
Member is Online
|
Post by vokuhila on Jul 23, 2021 16:30:28 GMT -5
Hah, did he? Missed that totally, but that is a heartwarming baseball moment right there.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 23, 2021 16:59:50 GMT -5
Houck is not going back to the minors this season. I would DFA Workman and option Rios before optioning Houck at this point. The question is simply his role. I look at it this way - in the playoffs, he's probably not starting, so I want him to get used to working in relief once this stretch of games is over (although they have a 16 in 16 stretch where I'd give him a start or two).
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 23, 2021 17:24:32 GMT -5
I really like him in the bulk reliever playoff role. I don't think he's ready this year to go through the order a third time, so you're looking at his cap right now as a 5-inning starter.
I get excited thinking about Houck and Whitlock in the pen. We're watching managers more and more willing to have a quick hook on a starter too, so one value they can provide is coming in and bridge us from the 4th to 6th innings to the specialists. Or they can follow starters like ERod who just can't seem to get through 5 innings without being already at 80-90 pitches and take us to Barnes. Even more valuable if we tax the pen the night before.
Given that we have a strong list of starters already, putting them at 3-4 innings per game every 2-3 games feels like a better usage than 5 innings every 4 games.
|
|
|
Post by soxinsf on Jul 23, 2021 17:33:31 GMT -5
I really like him in the bulk reliever playoff role. I don't think he's ready this year to go through the order a third time, so you're looking at his cap right now as a 5-inning starter. I get excited thinking about Houck and Whitlock in the pen. We're watching managers more and more willing to have a quick hook on a starter too, so one value they can provide is coming in and bridge us from the 4th to 6th innings to the specialists. Or they can follow starters like ERod who just can't seem to get through 5 innings without being already at 80-90 pitches and take us to Barnes. Even more valuable if we tax the pen the night before. Given that we have a strong list of starters already, putting them at 3-4 innings per game every 2-3 games feels like a better usage than 5 innings every 4 games. Yes, Houck as spot starter short of injuries or trades or complete meltdown by one of the current five. What a great addition to the pen. A guy who can pick up our five inning starters and shut the opponents down for multiple innings.
|
|
|
Post by soxinsf on Jul 23, 2021 19:00:56 GMT -5
Do you think all this talk about no injuries to the rotation has jinxed ERod? And if ERod misses turns, whether for ten days or a lot longer, does Houck get the spot or do the Sox make a deal?
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 23, 2021 19:44:43 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 23, 2021 21:34:25 GMT -5
Hah, did he? Missed that totally, but that is a heartwarming baseball moment right there. Pretty cool overlay of Houck and mirror-image Sale.
|
|
|
Post by orion09 on Jul 29, 2021 12:09:35 GMT -5
So... Tanner Houck so far this year:
.265 xwOBA, which would tie Gerrit Cole for 9th best among 155 pitchers with 200 BIP or more.
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Jul 29, 2021 12:23:43 GMT -5
If the Sox make the playoffs, would the Sox be smart to use Houck/Whitlock as the game 3 starter?
1) Sale 2) Eovaldi 3) Houck followed by Whitlock 4) Rodriguez
This would weaken the pen, the Sox would then have Barnes, Ottavino, Sawamura, Taylor as locks for the playoff bullpen, but maybe add a guy or two in the next 26.5 hours, I like those starters against just about anyone.
|
|
vokuhila
Veteran
Posts: 791
Member is Online
|
Post by vokuhila on Jul 29, 2021 12:37:21 GMT -5
They should use him exactly like they do now: let him start vs. a righty heavy lineup and use him as a high leverage long reliever vs. a balanced lineup.
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 5,318
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Jul 29, 2021 12:40:31 GMT -5
They should use him exactly like they do now: let him start vs. a righty heavy lineup and use him as a high leverage long reliever vs. a balanced lineup. The only thing there is that he's gotten lefties out just as well in the majors so far. Until and unless he shows he can't do it he should be starting against any team. He's a better option than both richards and perez in my mind.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 29, 2021 12:56:12 GMT -5
They should use him exactly like they do now: let him start vs. a righty heavy lineup and use him as a high leverage long reliever vs. a balanced lineup. The only thing there is that he's gotten lefties out just as well in the majors so far. Until and unless he shows he can't do it he should be starting against any team. He's a better option than both richards and perez in my mind. He hasn't proven he can go more than 3 innings. His ERA the first time through the order is 0.87 but after that it's 5.87. That's only 7.2 IP, but it's also consistent with what happened in Worcester whenever he hit the 4th inning (per Ian on the podcast).
You can use him maybe 3 times in a 7-game series as a 3-inning reliever, right? That's 9 innings. If he starts 2 games, he'd only give you a couple of innings more than that, most likely, and you'd be most likely getting a much less effective version of him.
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 5,318
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Jul 29, 2021 12:59:53 GMT -5
The only thing there is that he's gotten lefties out just as well in the majors so far. Until and unless he shows he can't do it he should be starting against any team. He's a better option than both richards and perez in my mind. He hasn't proven he can go more than 3 innings. His ERA the first time through the order is 0.87 but after that it's 5.87. That's only 7.2 IP, but it's also consistent with what happened in Worcester whenever he hit the 4th inning (per Ian on the podcast).
You can use him maybe 3 times in a 7-game series as a 3-inning reliever, right? That's 9 innings. If he starts 2 games, he'd only give you a couple of innings more than that, most likely, and you'd be most likely getting a much less effective version of him.
I agree with this take, I should have said I meant my part more for the regular season. Ideally you have sale/eovaldi/erod/Pivetta as your starters and houck as a weapon out of the pen for 2-3- innings yes.
|
|
|
Post by greenmonster on Jul 29, 2021 14:52:53 GMT -5
WTF........Tanner Houck optioned to AAA. How does this make sense??
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 29, 2021 14:55:02 GMT -5
WTF........Tanner Houck optioned to AAA. How does this make sense?? It opens up a roster spot. He can come back to start one of the games of the Aug 7th double header and be back for good by the 13th to make his next scheduled start after that. That tells me they expect a deal soon.
|
|
|
Post by soxinsf on Jul 29, 2021 15:06:32 GMT -5
WTF........Tanner Houck optioned to AAA. How does this make sense?? It opens up a roster spot. He can come back to start one of the games of the Aug 7th double header and be back for good by the 13th to make his next scheduled start after that. That tells me they expect a deal soon. If they have a deal for a SP, then fine. If not, there goes the Cora thoughts about a six-person rotation. And a deal for a SP, unless it somehow also sees Perez or Richards going away, leaves the Sox with six starters and no need for Houck in the rotation. But, if no SP is added, then Houck can be brought back for the double header. And do they not also need a roster spot for Sawamura? Houck has almost no chance of being a starter in the post season, even paired with Whitlock, and interesting idea but one that too much of a stretch at this point.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Jul 29, 2021 16:07:43 GMT -5
If building from your own farm system is the Sox goal why wouldn't you give Houck a spot in the rotation? I mean really most of the conversation is about where he fits right. Bottom line is he fits and the rest will be decided over time. Can he get a true 3rd pitch... can he continue to throw 5 different sliders?
I think he is going to be a solid pitcher in the future and the closer you keep his outings to 5 innings or less the better.
|
|
|