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Tanner Houck - bulk reliever?
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,053
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Post by cdj on Aug 9, 2021 10:24:18 GMT -5
There’s definitely a reason he was a first rounder- he’s got unreal movement on a fastball, a ridiculous slider, a good frame, and is mostly around the plate. You can basically throw an 8th inning floor on him. There are tools to work with.
That doesn’t mean all of them will materialize into making him a good starting pitcher capable of getting through an order multiple times though. I’m happy with a relief ace, what I’ve seen tells me relief ace, but I won’t complain if the 3rd pitch develops and he can be a starter
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 9, 2021 12:03:11 GMT -5
BTW, I totally disagree with the logic in several posts here. He's not a 4 inning pitcher. People are evaluating based on a pitcher who is rebuilding arm strength after more than a month on the IL. Doesn't it make more sense to look at his track record ? Little or no decline in "stuff" as the pitch counts piled up and no appreciable difference between first, second and third time through the order. Maybe there's a reason he was a first rounder. Do you really still think he's building up arm strength though? He was on the IL for 44 days and has been off of it for 53. He hit 70 pitches in his first start back and they let him throw 87 in his start against the Yankees. I guess it's possible, but he threw fewer pitches in his last two starts than that Yankee one and he was on extra rest on Saturday - he didn't get pulled because he was at pitch limits. Yeah I do but not in the pitch limit sense. He's probably capable of 100 pitches now and the last two starts but there was a pretty clear point in the last two games where he lost command across the board. Less in the last game than the one prior. That hasn't happened in the past. It's a fine line. That line was most evident in general in ERod this year. He was doing the innings/pitches early on but took quite a while longer than that to say his arm was strong.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 9, 2021 12:11:14 GMT -5
There’s definitely a reason he was a first rounder- he’s got unreal movement on a fastball, a ridiculous slider, a good frame, and is mostly around the plate. You can basically throw an 8th inning floor on him. There are tools to work with. That doesn’t mean all of them will materialize into making him a good starting pitcher capable of getting through an order multiple times though. I’m happy with a relief ace, what I’ve seen tells me relief ace, but I won’t complain if the 3rd pitch develops and he can be a starter We have seriously different opinions. They have materialized already. You just don't see it because of the start and stop nature of his career start which was broken up by an off season and an IL stint. Good grief, tell Brett Gardner he needs a third pitch and tell the Braves he can't go through lineups multiple times. Did you know that in his last 4 starts, no runs have scored while he was on the mound ?
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,053
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Post by cdj on Aug 9, 2021 12:14:34 GMT -5
There’s definitely a reason he was a first rounder- he’s got unreal movement on a fastball, a ridiculous slider, a good frame, and is mostly around the plate. You can basically throw an 8th inning floor on him. There are tools to work with. That doesn’t mean all of them will materialize into making him a good starting pitcher capable of getting through an order multiple times though. I’m happy with a relief ace, what I’ve seen tells me relief ace, but I won’t complain if the 3rd pitch develops and he can be a starter We have seriously different opinions. They have materialized already. You just don't see it because of the start and stop nature of his career start which was broken up by an off season and an IL stint. Good grief, tell Brett Gardner he needs a third pitch and tell the Braves he can't go through lineups multiple times. Did you know that in his last 4 starts, no runs have scored while he was on the mound ? Makes you wonder why they take him out, yeah? His minor league track record is what it is at this point and the big league club is aware of it. I’m not willing to take his sample size from the end of last season and proclaim “definite starter” yet
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Post by soxinsf on Aug 9, 2021 12:32:38 GMT -5
There’s definitely a reason he was a first rounder- he’s got unreal movement on a fastball, a ridiculous slider, a good frame, and is mostly around the plate. You can basically throw an 8th inning floor on him. There are tools to work with. That doesn’t mean all of them will materialize into making him a good starting pitcher capable of getting through an order multiple times though. I’m happy with a relief ace, what I’ve seen tells me relief ace, but I won’t complain if the 3rd pitch develops and he can be a starter I have no doubt about Houck's ability to be a relief ace. In his last two starts, he struck out the side in both first innings. But he also has demonstrated, at times, the ability to work late into games, and good starting pitching is a beautiful thing so he has got to be given the opportunity over the rest of this year and into next year to step up to that level of responsibility. It is far too soon to put him in the pen. He will wind up there is due time if that is where he belongs.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 9, 2021 12:33:37 GMT -5
We have seriously different opinions. They have materialized already. You just don't see it because of the start and stop nature of his career start which was broken up by an off season and an IL stint. Good grief, tell Brett Gardner he needs a third pitch and tell the Braves he can't go through lineups multiple times. Did you know that in his last 4 starts, no runs have scored while he was on the mound ? Makes you wonder why they take him out, yeah? His minor league track record is what it is at this point and the big league club is aware of it. I’m not willing to take his sample size from the end of last season and proclaim “definite starter” yet I don't wonder at all why they are taking him out. Arm strength. There's a difference between 100 pitches and 100 good pitches. If his history says he can, he will. Look at what you have here, three completely different plus movements coming from the exact same motion and release point (tunneling). One of those, the slider, has twice the break of virtually every slider the batter has ever seen. That's an ace not an 8th inning guy.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 9, 2021 13:23:14 GMT -5
Do you really still think he's building up arm strength though? He was on the IL for 44 days and has been off of it for 53. He hit 70 pitches in his first start back and they let him throw 87 in his start against the Yankees. I guess it's possible, but he threw fewer pitches in his last two starts than that Yankee one and he was on extra rest on Saturday - he didn't get pulled because he was at pitch limits. Yeah I do but not in the pitch limit sense. He's probably capable of 100 pitches now and the last two starts but there was a pretty clear point in the last two games where he lost command across the board. Less in the last game than the one prior. That hasn't happened in the past. It's a fine line. That line was most evident in general in ERod this year. He was doing the innings/pitches early on but took quite a while longer than that to say his arm was strong. Ah, OK, I know what you mean now. Fair enough and we'll see, but I'm skeptical that after 53 days active he's still getting tired that early. Certainly possible I guess.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 9, 2021 13:28:18 GMT -5
Yeah I do but not in the pitch limit sense. He's probably capable of 100 pitches now and the last two starts but there was a pretty clear point in the last two games where he lost command across the board. Less in the last game than the one prior. That hasn't happened in the past. It's a fine line. That line was most evident in general in ERod this year. He was doing the innings/pitches early on but took quite a while longer than that to say his arm was strong. Ah, OK, I know what you mean now. Fair enough and we'll see, but I'm skeptical that after 53 days active he's still getting tired that early. Certainly possible I guess. Wild wild guess here, it's the small muscles not the big ones. Looking at only the number of pitches he's thrown sequentially recently. there was really no other reason to have taken him out of the last two games when they did. It wasn't like he was getting lit up in either. There's no other pitcher on the staff that they would have given the hook to in those game situations.
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Post by manfred on Aug 9, 2021 14:47:25 GMT -5
It is also possible it was just too early a hook. Cora didn’t have a great weekend in that area, so maybe looking for reasons in Houck is barking up the wrong tree.
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Post by soxinsf on Aug 9, 2021 15:42:09 GMT -5
It is also possible it was just too early a hook. Cora didn’t have a great weekend in that area, so maybe looking for reasons in Houck is barking up the wrong tree. The worst thing Cora did this weekend was to rely on Barnes. But if a manager cannot rely on guys like Barnes, and Ottovino, he and his team is going to have bad results. How much of those multiple failures can be laid tied to Cora uniquely as opposed to Bloom as opposed to ownership whose 2021 strategy obviated better free agent signings is open to question in my mind. I have always feared Barnes and his propensity to blow saves. He has been really good in the first half, and I hope he gets back ontrack as of tomorrow because there is no one else at this point. But I fear the guy. My calling him Mr. Kerosene may be over the top yet it is not a new monicker. To the extent that my fears have been realized, the causal failures do not belong to Cora alone.
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Post by manfred on Aug 9, 2021 16:04:58 GMT -5
It is also possible it was just too early a hook. Cora didn’t have a great weekend in that area, so maybe looking for reasons in Houck is barking up the wrong tree. The worst thing Cora did this weekend was to rely on Barnes. But if a manager cannot rely on guys like Barnes, and Ottovino, he and his team is going to have bad results. How much of those multiple failures can be laid tied to Cora uniquely as opposed to Bloom as opposed to ownership whose 2021 strategy obviated better free agent signings is open to question in my mind. I have always feared Barnes and his propensity to blow saves. He has been really good in the first half, and I hope he gets back ontrack as of tomorrow because there is no one else at this point. But I fear the guy. My calling him Mr. Kerosene may be over the top yet it is not a new monicker. To the extent that my fears have been realized, the causal failures do not belong to Cora alone. I suppose I should temper what I wrote. I don’t mean Cora was objectively bad, and a few breaks and it isn’t an issue. But he could have sent Pivetta back out. He could have pulled Richards. He could have left Houck in. All debatable, but all went wrong. So that is a tough weekend.
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Post by terriblehondo on Aug 9, 2021 16:59:45 GMT -5
He needs to get a legitimate shot at starting. Who is the last starter the Sox have drafted and developed? Clay? He had the IL stint earlier this year so I get not wanting to over use him. But to me relievers are failed starters. I would give him every chance to fail as a starter before making him a reliever. If the Sox make the playoffs instead of finishing 4th in the East yes use him as a reliever in the playoffs. Health allowing he would start the rest of the year for me and he would start next year as a starter.
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Post by foreverred9 on Aug 9, 2021 18:59:42 GMT -5
I fully expect coming into spring training they are going to push hard on getting him to go 5-6 innings per start. I don't expect the early hook next year until he proves he can't go 2 or 3 times through the order. If he can't go 3 times I think he stays in the rotation, if he can't go 2 times he becomes the Whitlock super-reliever of 2022.
I also hope over time the game looks at relievers more as "dominate one time through the order but not multiple times" rather than as "failed starters". Not a knock on your comment, just building off of it to comment on what I hope will be the evolution of the game. 2-3 inning relievers have been underutilized in my opinion and could become great assets.
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Post by soxinsf on Aug 9, 2021 20:25:47 GMT -5
Agree completely. Whitlock, and recently Valdez, have shown that a middle inning shutdown reliever can pay big dividends when successful. It would be a great boon to Sox fortunes if both Whitlock and Houck became rotation mainstays. Add them to Pivetta and any two other quality starters and you have the makings of a very competitive team for years to come.
It is nice to dream about adding Mata, Song and Groome to that mix, but I dare not.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 19, 2021 21:19:06 GMT -5
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,053
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Post by cdj on Aug 19, 2021 21:52:41 GMT -5
If Foulkey can teach him that change…
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Post by manfred on Aug 19, 2021 22:14:03 GMT -5
If Foulkey can teach him that change… My Sox jersey has Foulke’s number in honor of how awesome he was in 2004. His change was so huge.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 19, 2021 22:58:31 GMT -5
If Foulkey can teach him that change… My Sox jersey has Foulke’s number in honor of how awesome he was in 2004. His change was so huge. Something I remember. When Foulke was a free agent deciding where he'd sign, ultimately he said the most persuasive factor was a call from Bobby Orr who told him, if you sign with any club and have a great year, you will be a hero. If you sign with Boston and have a great year, you will be immortal. ADD: Bob Cousey celebrated his 93rd b'day a few days ago. Us oldies remember watching Cousey, the ultimate little guy playing basketball. EDIT: I butchered the paraphrasing soooooo. www.courant.com/news/connecticut/hc-xpm-2003-12-20-0312200184-story.html
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Post by mwgray13 on Aug 25, 2021 11:02:53 GMT -5
Anyone else notice Houck’s Splitter going to the next level these past few starts? Looks like he is now throwing it at 83-85mph instead of the 89-87mph he used to. The new version also looks like it has more depth and fade than the previous iteration.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 27, 2021 10:54:12 GMT -5
He's certainly using the split more. And it's certainly dropped in velocity. But I'm not sure the velocity drop is necessarily a good thing, as it's now in the same velo band as the slider. Ideally, I'd think you'd want three distinct velo bands. See, e.g., Sale. We'll have to wait and see how it plays. I'm glad he's actually trying to use the pitch now, though.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 27, 2021 11:16:22 GMT -5
New post because it's a new idea. Relevant to the Houck discussion is this article from Eno Sarris: theathletic.com/2787562/2021/08/27/sarris-a-familiar-question-for-a-slumping-kevin-gausman-are-two-pitches-enough-even-if-theyre-great/It talks about Kevin Gausman being a two-pitch pitcher and how the Giants have encouraged that. However, when one of the two pitches is a bit off, as his ride on his fastball has been lately because of a drop in extension, he gets hit hard. For Houck, the problem is his two pitches are not performing at the elite levels they may have at first. His slider has been pretty good, but his sinker is getting hit around (.313 BAA, .500 SLG). His 4 seam has been better than I thought it'd be but not good (.304 BAA, .391 SLG). Next year I'd love to see him and Whitlock basically swap roles from what they're doing now. Use him late, use him early, but use him once or twice through multiple times a week.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 27, 2021 17:39:21 GMT -5
He's certainly using the split more. View AttachmentAnd it's certainly dropped in velocity. View AttachmentBut I'm not sure the velocity drop is necessarily a good thing, as it's now in the same velo band as the slider. Ideally, I'd think you'd want three distinct velo bands. See, e.g., Sale. View AttachmentWe'll have to wait and see how it plays. I'm glad he's actually trying to use the pitch now, though. It looks like he might be tinkering with the splitter/sinker. Would be nice if he could keep it consistently around 90 - 5mph isn't much but it's something.
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Post by terriblehondo on Aug 27, 2021 18:35:23 GMT -5
He's certainly using the split more. View AttachmentAnd it's certainly dropped in velocity. View AttachmentBut I'm not sure the velocity drop is necessarily a good thing, as it's now in the same velo band as the slider. Ideally, I'd think you'd want three distinct velo bands. See, e.g., Sale. View AttachmentWe'll have to wait and see how it plays. I'm glad he's actually trying to use the pitch now, though. I always thought 10 MPH was the ideal separation between fastball and splitter/change. I also thought the change was so he could get lefthanders out because the slider would not be as effective against righthanders.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 28, 2021 18:11:50 GMT -5
He's certainly using the split more. View AttachmentAnd it's certainly dropped in velocity. View AttachmentBut I'm not sure the velocity drop is necessarily a good thing, as it's now in the same velo band as the slider. Ideally, I'd think you'd want three distinct velo bands. See, e.g., Sale. View AttachmentWe'll have to wait and see how it plays. I'm glad he's actually trying to use the pitch now, though. It looks like he might be tinkering with the splitter/sinker. Would be nice if he could keep it consistently around 90 - 5mph isn't much but it's something. The sinker and splitter are two different pitches, FWIW.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 21, 2021 9:43:09 GMT -5
I mentioned this earlier in some other thread (lol, it wasn't well received)... Then something happened in August that started to truly define the pitch.
Houck realized he could make his slider do different things with just the smallest adjustment.
"It’s been one of those pitches now where I can adjust the grip just a little bit and get more of a side to side, or if I tweak it a little bit I can get more North to South," he said. "It has been super beneficial to have those markers of just the creases on my finger, to be able to say, ‘OK, when I hold it like this I will be able to get more tilt, more downward action. If I get more seam, I can create more East to West.’ I have only been doing that for about a month now, where I have been going back and forth.
"Before I would have the in between grip where it felt comfortable and make it too sweepy sometimes. So I just realized if I’m grabbing a little more seam here I can create more spin. It was just like a happy accident. Just gripping it one way in the bullpen and feeling like, ‘OK, by doing that it felt better.’ Then was like, ‘OK, what if I tilt it the other way.’ All of a sudden I created more depth despite throwing it the exact same way. I could see it right away and I could feel it right away. There was a cause and effect www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/how-tanner-houcks-happy-accident-helped-the-red-sox?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitterADD: I also said at the time that it was obvious to me that Vazquez knew which way it was going to break because his glove was always moving in that direction. I think eric said that would be amazing because the only pitcher he saw attempting that was Dice-K and that was late in his career. This is a whole lot more significant than meets the eye. I just hope Tanner isn't teaching the opposition here. ADD2: This also renders the break statistics as useless unless you can analyze every pitch..
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